What's everyone's opinion on the current conflict in Syria?

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Whoa guys, let's not run Russia up the flagpole - Russia couldn't avert GW 1 or 2, nor avert action in Libya. If the West wants to do something, then Russia simply does not have the clout to put the brakes on. In the case of Syria, unfortunately no one gives a rat's ass.

Russia is mad keen to keep Syria on side as it's the *only* place outside of Russia they have port facilities (contrast this with either the USA, UK or France to pick 3)

The reason Assad is still in power is because no-one sees an alternative worth engineering. Don't pretend this is a "Russia:Strong" moment..
Well lets consider a few things. For one Russia had a lot less interest in stopping the Second Gulf War, or the Libyan action. In the case of Libya Russia essentially tacitly consented to it, by letting the Security Council resolution through. In this case Russia has a much greater interest in keeping the Assad regime in power. And has put in a lot of effort into making it happen. And of course the move to get rid of Syrian chemical weapons was well conceived and well executed. So can Russia stop the west? Yes. But only under certain circumstances. This may be one of those circumstances.

And of course this isn't over yet. Also as a minor technical note, Russia has naval facilities in Ukraine, Sevastopol, and in Abkhazia, at Ochamchira. Of course neither of those bases offer them the advantages that a Mediterranean base would. But lets not forget, Tartus housed a very small facility. Plans to expand it have been put on the back burner because of the civil war. I actually wouldn't be surprised if Russia re-opened a naval facility in Vietnam. It could resupply Pacific Fleet ships when they go to the Indian Ocean, and there was some mention of it in Russian press. Russia is also involved in a number of Vietnamese military infrastructure projects.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
I think that this is essentially over.
It's still early days and anything can happen to change the strategic equation. Like I said before, if the West really wants to do away with Assad, it will find a way. Same goes with the Sunni Arab states. A few months down the road, I won't be surprised if a Pentagon spokesman says that strikes are being considered [yet again] as Syria is not complying and cooperating in handing over its nukes ...... [sounds familiar doesn't it?]

The worst thing that can happen for Obama and his Arab allies now is if another chemical strike is launched, but this time it is proven that the strike originated from rebel lines. Will there be more talk about Obama's ''red line'' that can't be crossed and will the rebels be held accountable?

And what will be the reaction of the West if the Baathists and elements of the FSA announce that a temporary agreement has been reached to save the people against the threat posed by ''extremist'' groups?

Russia is mad keen to keep Syria on side as it's the *only* place outside of Russia they have port facilities (contrast this with either the USA, UK or France to pick 3)
It's more to it than that. Geo-political factors are at play and Russia is extremely unhappy at how the West has been having its way in the Middle East. Looking at how well Iraq and Libya went, Russia is also worried that greater regional instability will occur if the West succeeds in regime change without paying consideration to what happens after that.

The question can be asked: What is the real reason the West and the Sunni Arab states want regime change in Syria and how do they benefit from it?

Russia of course is looking after its own interests by supporting Assad, the West does the same thing by backing its allies and partners [e.g Saudi, Jordan and the UAE]; all of whom, like Assad, are not to big on democracy, but are supposedly keen on democracy for the Syrian people.
 

2007yellow430

Active Member
So the real question is if Assad survives what will he do to those that supported the rebels? I suspect this isn't done quite yet.

Art
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
It's all about survival and making compromises to meet a common threat. If the conflict results in a win for Assad, I doubt that it will be an outright victory in that all rebel areas are recaptured and all rebel groups have been ejected from Syrian soil. Any win for Bashar will probably see him making an arrangement with elements of the FSA and its supporters. Bashar knows that some common ground must be found with the FSA and if that means that some of yesterday's enemy [including their non-combatant supporters] becomes tomorrow's friend, that is a price he'll be willing to pay in order to strengthen his position and weaken his other enemies.

Enemies are rarely permanent - Assad the elder entered Lebanon to help Christian groups - with Israeli approval - fighting against various Muslim group[s [e.g the PLO, the DPLF and the Druze] but later ended up fighting against the Christian groups and Israel! Anyway, it's still early days and there's nothing to indicate that Assad might not end up fleeing to Russia.

The next question [two actually ] that remains to be answered is after the conflict is eventually over - irrespective of who wins - what kind of Syria will emerge from it and where will be the next battleground for the extremist elements ...
 
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Russian one

New Member
Why Russia...

Why Russia helps Assad?
1 - there are at least 30,000 not-Syrian "allah-akbar"s (among total of 100,000 anti-Assad fighters) in Syria now. Only 500 km from northen Syria to Russian Caucases. Seen writing on a wall in Syria : "next is Russia". Got picture? We'd better kill em there - in Syria - with Assad hands - then in Russia.
2 - If Assad wont stop crazy Admin: word deleted. It's unacceptable to use that kind of descriptor/language in here. Please read the Forum Rules before posting again in Syria - they will blow up Tajikistan, Kyrgiztan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan - and tens of millions of refugees will flow... guess where? In Russia! And we dont want more of them - too many of em already here...
3 - Tartus, proudly called "naval base" - wich it is not - is of little importance for Russia other than shipping "goods" to Assad.
4 - Pipelines. If Assad falls - Qatar will build a pipeline via Syria and spoil the busines in Europe for Gazprom.

So, Russia will fight extrmists in Syria till the last Assad soldier. And we dont buy US bullshit about democracy Al-Qaeda-style.
 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
2 - If Assad wont stop crazy towerheads in Syria - they will blow up Tajikistan, Kyrgiztan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan - and tens of millions of refugees will flow... guess where? In Russia! And we dont want more of them - too many of em already here...
''Too many'' refugees in Russia already or ''too many'' Muslims?

Fariz
 

SolarWind

Active Member
''Too many'' refugees in Russia already or ''too many'' Muslims?

Fariz
I think he means too many Tajiks, Uzbeks, Turkmens, and Kirgizs. And yes, they happen to be muslim. Many russians are opposed to migrants from those countries. They work hard for comparatively meager pay and there is very many of them. Maybe your muslim country can take them in and give them jobs and a better life? Interested?
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Maybe your muslim country can take them in and give them jobs and a better life? Interested?
Do you actually have anything to say that is connected to the current topic or is your contribution confined only to smart ass, inflammatory comments?

Apologies mods, not my intention to get off-topic; I get really annoyed when people say stuff that is downright stupid and bring religion into play.
 
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SolarWind

Active Member
Do you actually have anything to say that is connected to the current topic or is your contribution confined only to smart ass, inflammatory comments?

Apologies mods, not my intention to get off-topic; I get really annoyed when people say stuff that is downright stupid and bring religion into play.
Well, your comments are inflammatory and insulting. You are the one who brought religion into play and I had to clarify as I have some information on the topic which you seemed to want to misinterpret and misrepresent. And your two last posts really did not add any value.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Well, your comments are inflammatory and insulting.
Really? To whom; yourself? If indeed you feel insulted and feel I've made inflammatory comments, please take it up with the mods....

You are the one who brought religion into play and I had to clarify as I have some information on the topic which you seemed to want to misinterpret and misrepresent.
I seeked clarification from a statement that was posted by another member; what I got was a smart ass comment from you that not only was un-called for but also has no connection with any information you have on the topic.

And your two last posts really did not add any value.
Well that's a matter of opinion. I'll be looking forward to seeing you contribute stuff of value to this thread ....
 

SolarWind

Active Member
How the hell is this on topic?
Based on the comment from Russian one and information from Russian media, I can say the following.
It seems that not just russian leadership, or the elite, but the average Russians may be opposed to forceful removal of Assad, since that may be against their interests, as it may cause extremist elements to come to power in Syria, which may further add to destabilization of regions close to Russia, such as the Caucasus, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgizstan and Turkmenistan. This may result in many refugees from these areas to add to the already large amount of migrants from these places who are currently in Russia, who are already making many average Russians unhappy. And this has less to do with the fact that the migrants and the potential refugees are muslim, and more to do with their cultural differences and willingness to take dirty jobs for little pay. The problem of migrants and refugees is common and people in other countries may feel similarly when it comes to that in their country.
 

SolarWind

Active Member
I seeked clarification from a statement that was posted by another member; what I got was a smart ass comment from you that not only was un-called for but also has no connection with any information you have on the topic.
I gave you that clarification you were seeking in your own inflammatory comment. I do not pretend to know everything, so you are at least incorrect. But your choice of words is also improper and insulting.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Thread re-opened. Lets keep it on topic this time, and avoid mudslinging.

Meanwhile some news. It appears that new Russian munitions have made it into the Syria arsenal, namely the S-8 rocket pods for both helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft. Maybe they were part of the "special cargo" that the VMF has been delivering. There's photos of a MiG-29 carrying them here: Oryx Blog: The S-8 rocket part 2: MiG-29 with S-8's over Damascus Which by the way appears to be the first time the MiG-29 was used in this conflict. More videos of this mission here: pfc-joker.livejournal.com/56379.html

There's also photos and videos from the Meng airbase, following it's capture by the rebels. http://spioenkop.blogspot.com/2013/08/mengmenaghminakh-airbase-captured-1.html While this appears to be a victory for the rebels, it's significance may have been negligible. The rebels did destroy a lot of tanks there, and it appears that the rebels themselves used tanks in the attack on the base. But the helicopters based there have been inoperational for a while.

Also, the location of one of the Buk-M2E btlns in Syria, is the Mezzeh airbase, which services and covers Damascus, and the Presidential Palace. The base also houses the Tu-143 UAVs (which may or may not be operational, but the launchers were sighted recently), and various helicopters. There's more detailed info here:
http://spioenkop.blogspot.com/2013/09/mezzeh-and-her-buks.html
http://spioenkop.blogspot.com/2013/10/mezzeh-and-her-buks-2.html
http://spioenkop.blogspot.com/2013/10/syria-and-her-tu-143s.html
 

alexkvaskov

New Member
It seems like the SAA is making a large push into the countryside south of Aleppo, according to recent reports. If they can surround the rebel forces in the city it would be a major coup for the regime, following the last few months of stalemate.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
It seems like the SAA is making a large push into the countryside south of Aleppo, according to recent reports. If they can surround the rebel forces in the city it would be a major coup for the regime, following the last few months of stalemate.
Do the loyalists still hold Homs? They took in the spring, and I haven't heard anything since.

Meanwhile some useful info on Syrian T-72 upgrades. Apparently a few of them got the TURMS-T system. Some of them have panoramic sights. From the looks of it this upgrade, in optics and FCS, is actually superior to the T-72B3s that the Russian army is getting right now. It's interesting that despite reports about casualties and vulnerabilities of the T-72, the upgrades for it consistently focus on improving the sights and the FCS, while protection takes a back seat.

Oryx Blog: Syria and her TURMS-T equipped T-72's (1)
Oryx Blog: Syria and her TURMS-T equipped T-72's (2)

I also can't help but wonder what the VMF naval station on Tartus looks like right now. Before the civil war it had literally a handful of personnel, but with the "Syrian Express" constantly running there's got to be more personnel to hand off-loading of cargo.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Kurdish self-defense fighters manning a checkpoint in a town near the Turkish border report being hit by a chemical arty shell fired by rebel forces. Prior to this they'd been fighting off attacks from the Islamist rebels (An-Nusra, and Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant).

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ñèðèéñêèå áîåâèêè ïðèìåíèëè ñíàðÿä ñ îòðàâëÿþùèìè âåùåñòâàìè, ðàññêàçàë êóðäñêèé èñòî÷íèê

Well this time it can't be government forces. There weren't any there...
 

King Wally

Active Member
A MASSIVE blast has reportedly destroyed a a Syrian air defence base near the coastal city of Latakia with multiple Syrian and Lebanese sources speculating that an Israeli strike from the Mediterranean was to blame.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported a loud explosion in a Syrian army base, and Twitter users quoted eyewitnesses who said the blast occurred near Snobar Jableh, just south of the city, The Times of Israel reported.

Unconfirmed reports suggested the explosion was the result of a missile strike from the sea. And social media came alight with posts alleging that Israel was responsible.

The Lebanese government news agency reported six Israeli aircraft flying through Lebanese airspace along the coast north of Beirut yesterday.

On September 6, 2007, at least four low-flying Israeli Air Force fighters crossed into Syrian airspace and carried out a secret bombing mission on the banks of the Euphrates River, about 150km north of the Iraq border.

The incursion into Syria came which came after months of heightened tension between Israel and Syria over military exercises and troop build-ups by both sides along the Golan Heights.
Taken from news.com.au just now.

Any word on what this attack was about? The press is speculating that it was the Israeli's.
 
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