Imagine this: It's early 2013. The new US president has affirmed that her campaign promises to disengage the USA from the rest of the world as far as possible will be carried out. Her policies will be - America first! We keep our military secrets. Nobody gets our best technology. No free lunches! You get US protection only if it's worthwhile for the USA - and you'd better make sure it's worthwhile. We don't do aid (though private citizens can give away what they like). We'll sell you weapons, but only on a strictly commercial basis, like any other goods, & not our best stuff. That we keep to ourselves. Strong fences make good neighbours. You don't meddle with us, we don't meddle with you. We don't care what you do internally. Just keep it to yourself. Speak softly & carry a big stick. As above. But if you do meddle with us, expect biiig trouble. Keep danger at a distance. Neighbouring countries will not suffer US interference in their affairs, as long as they do not undertake any hostile actions. Allowing a foreign military presence on their soil will be considered to be a hostile action. Fortifying their borders is hostile. As a quid pro quo, the USA will guarantee their borders against any external threat. Internal threats are their own business. With the support of the large majority in her favour in Congress, the president is confident that her main foreign policy aims can be completed by the end of her first term. The USA will be out of NATO, the UN (except for some agencies), the WTO (except for technical aspects), etc. Apart from the purely technical & functional, such as those setting standards, the USA will not participate in international bodies. Relations with other countries will be conducted on a bilateral basis. The USA will not make any open-ended commitments to defend anyone. Anyone who seeks US military assistance should expect to have to pay its costs, & be able to justify it in terms of benefit to the USA. Current arrangements will be maintained only until they can be ended in an orderly fashion. Military bases on foreign soil will be maintained only where they are considered of strategic importance. Strenuous attempts will be made to ensure that any such bases are isolated from local civilians, preferably on islands with no or few inhabitants. It is expected that most foreign bases will be closed. Countries in North America & around the Caribbean will be considered to be neighbours. They will be given preferential access to the US market (especially for energy . . . ) & military guarantees, as long as they behave. Not behaving is not recommended. What would be the likely consequences of such a change in US policy? Who would boost their armed forces, who would seek to buy US favour (& how much success would they have), who would seek to realign their alliances, who would seek to take advantage of the withdrawal of the USA to extend their influence?