War Against ISIS

wittmanace

Active Member
It's worse then even that. They're also in Libya, and apparently are trying to take control of some of the oil production over there.

Personally I would be most worried about attempts to root themselves into areas of Africa. The vast distances and various other factors would mean it would be ripe for them in so many ways, and would actually be incredibly difficult to remove. Many factors point to this being the nightmare scenario.

In the Libya instance, there have been various signs that people and several governments are working hard to remove the possibility of a future of Libya as a Daesh state or the like.
 
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ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
To keep things on topic:
ISW Blog: ISIS in Afghanistan: December 3, 2015

There is an IS affiliate in Afghanistan, as if the Taliban and Al Qaeda weren't enough. How long before that abscess really pops?
Add Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines and Pakistan to your list. Not open insurgencies but they are slowly building their presence. They start out as a Dawah office - an Islamic missionary office and work from there indoctrinating people and running a classic intelligence gathering operation, gathering as much information about local individuals from leaders, judges, politicians, business people, mosque preachers, police, security personnel etc. They then use that to infiltrate and subjugate the local population.
 

wittmanace

Active Member
Add Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines and Pakistan to your list. Not open insurgencies but they are slowly building their presence. They start out as a Dawah office - an Islamic missionary office and work from there indoctrinating people and running a classic intelligence gathering operation, gathering as much information about local individuals from leaders, judges, politicians, business people, mosque preachers, police, security personnel etc. They then use that to infiltrate and subjugate the local population.
I get the impression there are different types of host countries, in that some are for fun collection etc, whereas others are like germinating seeds slowly for local expansion and active presence beyond fund network and what goes with it. I suspect Afghanistan would be both, whereas insurgency in Pakistan against the government and society probably wouldn't be something on the cards in their minds.
 
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Todjaeger

Potstirrer
Nicky Barnes showed to US financial elite that the heroine can earn good money.Who controls Afghanistan, controls the traffic of heroin.Trafficking of heroin is not only the money from illegal sale in Garlem, but the state budget in the fight against the spread of heroin and money for drug addicts treatment.
For ISIS illegal oil trading ends.They want to be the primary element in the business of drug trafficking and they understand it.
Posts like this IMO are getting quite close to "flame-bait". You might want to post more facts and less conspiracy-themed topics.

Amongst other things, Afghanistan is by no means the only place poppies grow which can be turned into heroin or other opiates.
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
Add Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines and Pakistan to your list. Not open insurgencies but they are slowly building their presence. They start out as a Dawah office - an Islamic missionary office and work from there indoctrinating people and running a classic intelligence gathering operation, gathering as much information about local individuals from leaders, judges, politicians, business people, mosque preachers, police, security personnel etc. They then use that to infiltrate and subjugate the local population.
Actually in Pakistan and the Philippines, both areas have or have in the recent past had active insurgencies centered around religious differences. So far though, there has not been a tie between Daesh and the various insurgent groups. As time progresses, that could happen though.

It is worth noting though that groups like Boko Hareem could seek to 'partner' with Daesh, to gain more funding, a wider base of support, and possibly 'import' people with skills useful in conducting an insurgency.
 

chemical bro

New Member
Coalition's sad news

About half of the existing Tornado aircraft of the German air force ready to perform combat tasks. About the inspector General of the Bundeswehr Volker wicker said in his latest report, according to German newspaper Die Welt.
In the Arsenal of Germany is only 29 combat-ready fighter Tornado is 44 % of the total. They can fly, but their full use of the lack of spare parts. Therefore, these aircraft cannot be relied upon: if something fails, replace them will be just nothing.
Therefore, their fighter-bombers, the Bundeswehr plans to use in Syria only for reconnaissance. According to the Minister of defence of Germany Ursula von der Leyen, the operation will involve only six planes.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
About half of the existing Tornado aircraft of the German air force ready to perform combat tasks. About the inspector General of the Bundeswehr Volker wicker said in his latest report, according to German newspaper Die Welt.
In the Arsenal of Germany is only 29 combat-ready fighter Tornado is 44 % of the total. They can fly, but their full use of the lack of spare parts. Therefore, these aircraft cannot be relied upon: if something fails, replace them will be just nothing.
Therefore, their fighter-bombers, the Bundeswehr plans to use in Syria only for reconnaissance. According to the Minister of defence of Germany Ursula von der Leyen, the operation will involve only six planes.
Can you supply link to that particular story please. I think that you will find the real reason that the Luftwaffe aircraft are flying recce missions is because that is a political decision taken by the German government. I would rather have a proper discussion than less than subtle attempts at flaming and misinformation.
 

GermanHerman

Active Member
Can you supply link to that particular story please. I think that you will find the real reason that the Luftwaffe aircraft are flying recce missions is because that is a political decision taken by the German government. I would rather have a proper discussion than less than subtle attempts at flaming and misinformation.
Iirc the actual problem is a lack of capability from german side as the Bundeswehr / Luftwaffe doesn't have an operational asset with the capability to deploy guided Bombs. The Eurofighter is not suited for the task and the Tornados can only use LJDAM when upgraded to ASSTA3. But afaik there are only a mere handfull of upgraded Planes and the pilots are still getting training so there is no combat ready asset atm and dropping "dumb bombs" would realy not make a good impression in german media.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Links after 10 posts,sorry.
Germany has no problems with the aircraft and spare parts.Germany has problems with the decision.
Germans don't want to fight, so they make up that they have no spare parts for aircraft and to replace them will be nothing.
Talking about it.
You think their budget problems aren't real? They very much are. And the readiness issue with the Tornadoes appears to be real also. Now I agree that if they wanted to, they certainly could get the assets to conduct air strikes in theater. So in that regard you're correct, but that aside from that, they are having real issues stemming from huge budget and size cuts over the past two decades.

Iirc the actual problem is a lack of capability from german side as the Bundeswehr / Luftwaffe doesn't have an operational asset with the capability to deploy guided Bombs. The Eurofighter is not suited for the task and the Tornados can only use LJDAM when upgraded to ASSTA3. But afaik there are only a mere handfull of upgraded Planes and the pilots are still getting training so there is no combat ready asset atm and dropping "dumb bombs" would realy not make a good impression in german media.
I don't know if this is true, but if it is, that's shocking. Even the Soviets had the capability to use guided bombs in the 80's. For Germany to lack that capability in 2015 is a big surprise. Which is why I'm not sure this is correct...
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

It's possible that as many as two Russian SSO operatives were killed and one wounded in action, in Syria. There's a detail analysis, and the result is inconclusive, but it matches well with the rare photos of Russian personnel in Syria on or near the front lines.

https://citeam.org/russian-specoperations-servicemen-killed-in-syria/

There's information that the Tiyas airbase is being prepared for Iran, while Sha'aryat is meant for Russia. Honestly these reports are getting repetitive, and sort of sensational. From a practical standpoint, Iranian Su-24s or even F-4s would be their options. Some go so far as to claim the planes are already there, but there is no evidence.

Иран переброÑил в Сирию около двадцати боевых Ñамолетов | Военный информатор
ТуÑовка намечаетÑÑ? - Берлога Бронемедведа

The Russian government has advised companies to prepare for Turkish sanctions.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com ::  Ðîññèè íà÷àëè ãîòîâèòüñÿ ê îòâåòíûì ñàíêöèÿì Òóðöèè

Meanwhile the government of Iraqi Kurdistan claims that some or all of the oil tankers in Russian materials are theirs. A reminder, Iraqi Kurdistan actually has certain ties to Turkey so while their statement may be true, it may also be politically motivated.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Èðàêñêèå êóðäû çàÿâèëè, ÷òî íåôòåâîçû ÈÃ, ïîêàçàííûå Ìèíîáîðîíû ÐÔ, ïðèíàäëåæàò èì

Russia is being accused of using white phosphorus in Syria. Russia certainly has been using incendiary munitions, and in a relatively careless manner, but I don't know if these specific claims are true.

«The Daily Mail» обвинили РоÑÑию в иÑпользовании Ñмертельного белого фоÑфора в Сирии | Военный информатор

German parliament authorizes the use of their military against ISIS.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ïàðëàìåíò Ãåðìàíèè ïðèíÿë ðåøåíèå îá ó÷àñòèè íåìåöêèõ âîéñê â îïåðàöèè ïðîòèâ "Èñëàìñêîãî ãîñóäàðñòâà"

France has made recon flights over Libya, as part of their fight against ISIS.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â ðàìêàõ áîðüáû ñ ÈÃ Ôðàíöèÿ ïðîâåëà ðàçâåäïîëåòû íàä Ëèâèåé

Interesting OSINT investigation which indicates that available data on the crash site of the Russian Su-24, and pilot ejection, matches Turkish claims not Russian ones. However this does not decisively prove the violation took place. Also the Russian MoD release maps were heavily doctored and colorized for public consumption, not at the quality or in the format likely to be seen on Russian airspace control assets, so it's possible that the Russian maps published are illustrations, rather then actual evidence.

https://citeam.org/determining-crash-site-of-su-24/
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Mini-update.

From the coordination center which includes Russia, Syria, Iran and Hezbollah, very strange comments are coming.

1) Syria will receive the S-300 very soon, thus gaining the ability to close it's sky to intruders. All planes that don't coordinate with Damascus will be considered hostile. Countries fighting terrorism will be granted air corridors.

2) Iran is preparing two squadrons of Sukhois for action in Syria (Su-24s no doubt - panzerbar's remark)

3) Russian Pantsyr, S-400, and Tor SAMs are in country, and the Sha'aryat airfield is being prepared to receive Russian planes.

4) Iran will be deploying 4000 Revolutionary Guard to Syria with mortars and grenade launchers to provide support.

РоÑÑÐ¸Ñ + Иран = СириÑ? - Берлога Бронемедведа

Personal comment: That's quite a lot, and if I can get confirmation, it means a serious escalation in the war on ISIS. It also means that the Russian-led coalition will become a reality on the ground. 4000 Revolutionary Guard is a major injection of troops, especially if it occurs at a single location. Squadrons of Iranian jets, when all the airspace control assets are Russian, will likely have to not just coordinate for practically take orders from Russian command. And a second Russian base will mean that Russia intends to expand their presence. Iran is not taking over, but providing additional assets.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Iirc the actual problem is a lack of capability from german side as the Bundeswehr / Luftwaffe doesn't have an operational asset with the capability to deploy guided Bombs. The Eurofighter is not suited for the task and the Tornados can only use LJDAM when upgraded to ASSTA3. But afaik there are only a mere handfull of upgraded Planes and the pilots are still getting training so there is no combat ready asset atm and dropping "dumb bombs" would realy not make a good impression in german media.
RAF & Italian Tornados & RAF (at least) Typhoons can drop an assortment of PGMs. Giving German Typhoons (though not their pilots) the capability should be a simple matter of loading 'em with the right software drops - & buying the weapons. The aircraft is perfectly suitable.

Italy uses GBU-31, GBU-32 & SDB on Tornado. What upgrade is needed for German Tornados to use them? RAF Tornados have a few different Paveways & Brimstone. They both carry Storm Shadow.

Germany has KEPD-350, but that's overkill (& too expensive) for Daesh targets. The Tornado ECRs have AGM-88, but again, there's likely to be a shortage of Daesh targets for it.

Ah. According to the Luftwaffe, it has GBU-24 on Tornado as well as GBU-54 LJDAM. Hmm. Probably not the best thing for plinking technicals, tanker lorries, etc.
 

Ranger25

Active Member
Staff member
Mini-update.

From the coordination center which includes Russia, Syria, Iran and Hezbollah, very strange comments are coming.

1) Syria will receive the S-300 very soon, thus gaining the ability to close it's sky to intruders. All planes that don't coordinate with Damascus will be considered hostile. Countries fighting terrorism will be granted air corridors.

2) Iran is preparing two squadrons of Sukhois for action in Syria (Su-24s no doubt - panzerbar's remark)

3) Russian Pantsyr, S-400, and Tor SAMs are in country, and the Sha'aryat airfield is being prepared to receive Russian planes.

4) Iran will be deploying 4000 Revolutionary Guard to Syria with mortars and grenade launchers to provide support.

Ð*оÑÑÐ¸Ñ + Иран = СириÑ? - Берлога Бронемедведа

Personal comment: That's quite a lot, and if I can get confirmation, it means a serious escalation in the war on ISIS. It also means that the Russian-led coalition will become a reality on the ground. 4000 Revolutionary Guard is a major injection of troops, especially if it occurs at a single location. Squadrons of Iranian jets, when all the airspace control assets are Russian, will likely have to not just coordinate for practically take orders from Russian command. And a second Russian base will mean that Russia intends to expand their presence. Iran is not taking over, but providing additional assets.
The most interesting point to this(IMO) is the apparent close coordination taking place between Russia and Iran to save their mutual friend. This appears to be, as you stated, a serious escalation
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
The most interesting point to this(IMO) is the apparent close coordination taking place between Russia and Iran to save their mutual friend. This appears to be, as you stated, a serious escalation
Right or wrong, Iran and Russia are not pussy footing around. They seem to be willing to support their client. NATO on the other hand.....? IMHO it might be better for now to let them keep their thug in place. I just don't see anything reassembling a reasonable alternative.
 

barney41

Member
Will Putin provide Syria a S-300? If Syria receives and operates a S-300, the Coalition will be faced with hard choices. They can cease air operations over Syria, come to an accommodation with Assad or de facto declare war on Assad and take out his IADS and all bets are off.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Will Putin provide Syria a S-300? If Syria receives and operates a S-300, the Coalition will be faced with hard choices. They can cease air operations over Syria, come to an accommodation with Assad or de facto declare war on Assad and take out his IADS and all bets are off.
Maybe a third option where they work together and coordinate air traffic and sir strikes. However, this scenario hasn't come to pass yet where any of these options has to be exercised.
 

barney41

Member
Could this be Putin's ploy, realizing that Coalition countries would require a UN resolution, subject to Russian veto, to authorize strikes against Syrian forces?
One wildcard is Israel. Netanyahu is OK with the S-400 under Russian control but has indicated in thd past that a Syrian S-300 that could threaten Israeli airspace is unacceptable.
 
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