I can't see Russia probing Turkish airspace after this incident. The risk versus gain isn't there IMO. The greater risk is something happening between Russians and NATO inside Syrian airspace. This might be where Turkey could cause some serious stuff to happen.
It all depends upon what the wider Russian goals are. I agree on the surface it may seem a senseless thing to do. Are we to believe that he Russian navigation is really that poor? I don't honestly know. Maybe Feanor could offer some specialist insight into why this may have occurred.
Here is what my instinct is saying:
Russia is in deep financial trouble. It is propping up a disintegrating Eastern Ukraine, with hardly any access to cheap European loans due to sanctions, and a zombie oil price. The absolutely last thing it should be doing is engaging in a costly middle east campaign right now.
Russia as I see it is not being threatened. It seems to be over extending itself in the Arctic, East Ukraine and now Syria and it seems all about image and credibility. Is this what a nation in deep recession should be doing? Where is the actual payback going to come from?
Russia does not have the economic power that the US has to sustain a campaign of this magnitude. It must be costing and hurting Russia.
Russia must have it's sights on impeding Saudi oil production; it can only do this if the combat arena is widened to draw in all affected players. It would want to draw in Turkey naturally as a NATO member and while a Russian NATO skirmish occurs to in the north then Iran could be let loose on the Gulf states to the south. Russia would then have reason to support Iran and the gulf states would suffer collateral damage affecting oil supplies.
The Russian intervention is about gaining control of oil supplies; an industry that not only ultimately determines whether it is a super power or not but whether it goes into terminal decline or not having over committed itself militarily.
Watch out for the gulf oil states being dragged directly into the conflict.
