War Against ISIS

[John Fedup]

It will be interesting to see how much longer junior is willing to assist Kurdish forces. I am guessing Canada will probably pull out soon.

 

[ngatimozart]

I have a lot of sympathy for the Kurds. They were shafted by the West (Britain and France) 100 years ago an now they are being shafted by the West again.

 

[supercomrade]

been checking this every day waiting for them feanor updates

waiting for Syrian war to be over any day

 

[Feanor]

been checking this every day waiting for them feanor updates

waiting for Syrian war to be over any day

Sorry, I've been busier then usual lately. I'll try to put one out today.

 

[swerve]

I have a lot of sympathy for the Kurds. They were shafted by the West (Britain and France) 100 years ago an now they are being shafted by the West again.

Don't forget that just over 100 years ago a lot of them enthusiastically assisted in rather more than shafting the Armenians.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Mayadin has fallen to the Syrians, and likely to Russian forces. The fighting continues and resistance remains stiff, but it's only a matter of time. Cruise missile strikes continue both against targets around Mayadin and around Abu-Kemal. Tu-22M3s were also involved.

It's significant that despite the very high cost of these cruise missile strikes, they continue unabated and in large numbers. They must be regarded as very useful by the Russian military, since their political value is close to 0 at this point.

https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1181054.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3777864.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3779812.html
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ïîäëîäêà "Âåëèêèé Íîâãîðîä" íàíåñëà ðàêåòíûé óäàð "Êàëèáðàìè" ïî ïîçèöèÿì ÈÃ* â Ñèðèè
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3730196.html
https://bmpd.livejournal.com/2880515.html

Despite the successes, complacency kills. A Syrian munitions dump was destroyed by a small UAV dropping a munition on it.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3762581.html

Kirkuk has fallen to the Iraqis in the meantime, and it looks independent Kurdistan is dead in the water, at least for now.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3747645.html
https://imp-navigator.livejournal.com/668398.html

Stiff fighting continues in northern Hama but without decisive results. At this point in time, battles like these are more likely to favor Assad as the rebels are low on resources and divided.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3771171.html

Turkish forces have entered Idlib, openly. It appears that some sort of behind-the-scenes agreement was reached with al-Nusra.Given how many problems the Turks had trying to take al-Bab, it's not surprising they opted for a different approach.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3739666.html

Pantsyr systems were used to intercept two Grad rockets in Hama. It's been an open question for some time how effective the Pantsyr is against ballistic targets. A Grad rocket is not exactly that impressive though.

https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1065987.html

6 Syrian helos have been rebased to Deyr ez Zor.

https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/1172273.html

A sizeable batch of T-62M, MT-LB, and BMP-1 vehicles has arrived in Syria. Part of it is undoubtedly meant to replace casualties, but this is also likely an expansion of the 5th Corps.

Also a brand-new TOS-1A has arrived in Syria, in the corporate UVZ colors. It's unclear why or what this means.

Gur Khan attacks!: СириÑ: 5-й ÐºÐ¾Ñ€Ð¿ÑƒÑ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»ÑƒÑ‡Ð¸Ð» "неубиваемые" Т-62Ðœ и "вечные копейки"
Gur Khan attacks!: Ð’ Сирию прибыл новый иÑпепелÑющий "Солнцепек" - ТОС-1Ð?
Gur Khan attacks!: Ð’ Сирии недавно прибывшие МТ-ЛБ понеÑли первые потери

A hasty glance at improvised combat vehicles out of Syria.

Gur Khan attacks!: СириÑ: "Безумный МакÑ" нервно курит в Ñторонке... (фото)

There's unconfirmed information that Russia is preparing to reduce the size of their deployment in Syria. Russian MoD said, the operation in Syria will soon be concluded, which of course won't be the end of Russian presence, but it might mean a reduction in size.

https://bmpd.livejournal.com/2919177.html
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Øîéãó çàÿâèë î ñêîðîì çàâåðøåíèè âîåííîé îïåðàöèè â Ñèðèè

The UN has laid the blame on Syria for the chemical attack in Khan Sheikhun..

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÎÎÍ âîçëîæèëà íà âëàñòè Ñèðèè âèíó çà õèìàòàêó â Õàí-Øåéõóíå

According to some estimates there are more volunteers from Russia in ISIS at this point then from Saudi Arabia.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèÿ îáîøëà Ñàóäîâñêóþ Àðàâèþ ïî ÷èñëó íàåìíèêîâ â ÈÃ*

Meanwhile Russia has accused the US of letting ISIS fighters through US controlled territory.

https://tvzvezda.ru/news/forces/content/201710111052-nq5z.htm

WWII-era M-30 howitzers being used in Syria.

https://ru-artillery.livejournal.com/457523.html

A Russian Su-24M crashed at Khmeimeem after rolling past the landing strip. The pilots didn't have time to eject and died. Also an Mi-28N in Hama province made a hard forced landing due to technical issues. The crew was evacuated. It's important to note that the Mi-28N has had a number of accidents, suggesting some deeper issues.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3735062.html
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3727521.html

There are reports of mounting casualties among Russian private contractors operating in Syria. It's likely they are a big part of the current offensive operations around the Euphrates.

Two of them were even taken prisoner by ISIS, and likely executed. Apparently they were tied to Cossack organizations and may have fought in Ukraine.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÑÌÈ óçíàëè î 12 ãðîáàõ ñ áîéöàìè "×ÂÊ Âàãíåðà", äîñòàâëåííûõ èç Ñèðèè â Ðîñòîâ-íà-Äîíó
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com ::  "ïëåííîì ðîññèÿíèíå" èç ðîëèêà ÈÃ* îïîçíàëè ó÷àñòíèêà êàçà÷üåãî äâèæåíèÿ
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3721428.html

 

[supercomrade]

Thanks feanor

I wonder how many permanent bases Russia will establish once the war is over

 

[Feanor]

Thanks feanor

I wonder how many permanent bases Russia will establish once the war is over

Probably 2. They will keep Khmeimeem, and Tartus. The rest appear to be temporary. This of course doesn't stop Russia from using Syrian Army bases as needed without setting up their own.

 

[Feanor]

Interesting news. It appears Russian accusations of collusion between ISIS and the US have unexpected support from the BBC. Russian sources have twice claimed that US or coalition helos were used to evacuate ISIS leadership, claiming that some of the leadership figures of ISIS would embarrass the US if caught. Now the BBC is claiming the coalition let ISIS fighters, their families, and loads of weapons out of Raqqa.

Raqqa's dirty secret - BBC News

 

[ngatimozart]

Interesting news. It appears Russian accusations of collusion between ISIS and the US have unexpected support from the BBC. Russian sources have twice claimed that US or coalition helos were used to evacuate ISIS leadership, claiming that some of the leadership figures of ISIS would embarrass the US if caught. Now the BBC is claiming the coalition let ISIS fighters, their families, and loads of weapons out of Raqqa.

Raqqa's dirty secret - BBC News

Yes I read that yesterday and whilst the suggested reasoning is to reduce collateral damage, I am somewhat skeptical about that reasoning. Can't put a finger on it yet, why the skepticism - just feels a bit dodgy.

 

[Feanor]

Yes I read that yesterday and whilst the suggested reasoning is to reduce collateral damage, I am somewhat skeptical about that reasoning. Can't put a finger on it yet, why the skepticism - just feels a bit dodgy.

Spend months bombing Raqqa into dust and rubble to destroy ISIS. Let a large number of ISIS fighters leave at the very end to "avoid collateral damage". Nothing dodgy here at all. Makes perfect sense.

Generally official Russian claims should be taken with a tablespoon of salt, but this makes repeated Russian accusations look more plausible. And among those accusations is that the US and the coalition knowingly let ISIS pass through coalition-held territory, to attack Syrian Army positions. Notwithstanding the comedic errors of the Russian MoD when publishing supporting imagery.

 

[gazzzwp]

As the US struggles to find a valid role in the making of a post war Syria, Russia continues it's push eastward and at some point the US and Russian air forces are going to come face to face with each other. Will Russia succeed in pushing the US out of the country altogether?

What do people think? If that happens then I see an Iranian/Syrian/Russian axis completely taking over that part of the world, applying immense pressure on Israel and possibly Iraq and Turkey.

https://www.vox.com/world/2017/6/20/15840744/trump-russia-syria-usa-drone-baltic-sea

 

[Feanor]

As the US struggles to find a valid role in the making of a post war Syria, Russia continues it's push eastward and at some point the US and Russian air forces are going to come face to face with each other. Will Russia succeed in pushing the US out of the country altogether?

What do people think? If that happens then I see an Iranian/Syrian/Russian axis completely taking over that part of the world, applying immense pressure on Israel and possibly Iraq and Turkey.

https://www.vox.com/world/2017/6/20/15840744/trump-russia-syria-usa-drone-baltic-sea

They're already face to face, across from each other over the Euphrates and it seems Russia is done pushing. Russia has recently declared "victory" over ISIS. It appears they plan to leave mopping up operations primarily to the Iranians and the Syrians, while Russia shifts its focus to al-Nusra in the north.

 

[ngatimozart]

As the US struggles to find a valid role in the making of a post war Syria, Russia continues it's push eastward and at some point the US and Russian air forces are going to come face to face with each other. Will Russia succeed in pushing the US out of the country altogether?

What do people think? If that happens then I see an Iranian/Syrian/Russian axis completely taking over that part of the world, applying immense pressure on Israel and possibly Iraq and Turkey.

https://www.vox.com/world/2017/6/20/15840744/trump-russia-syria-usa-drone-baltic-sea

I think that Trumps decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem has abrogated any moral authority for any continued US activity in Middle East. This action has probably alienated any support from Arab countries. It plays right into the hands of Russia and Iran.

 

[John Fedup]

Agreed. But Trump wants to please his "base" and he is too stupid to realize the consequences of many of his decisions. Fixing all this stuff will takes years, maybe decades considering how his team has decimated the State Department of much of its expertise.

 

[Feanor]

I think that Trumps decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem has abrogated any moral authority for any continued US activity in Middle East. This action has probably alienated any support from Arab countries. It plays right into the hands of Russia and Iran.

Personally I think the US lost that moral authority after their involvement in supporting the various questionable and outright extremist groups in Syria and Libya.

 

[the concerned]

I actually think it is quite a clever move. Israel's biggest threat right now is from Iran not the Palestinians. Iran has threatened to wipe Israel off the map and it's only way of attacking Israel is with ballistic missiles so by moving the capital to Jerusalem means now Iran would have to target a Muslim holy city. They would now be responsible for threatening more Palestinians than Israel ever has.

 

[Feanor]

I actually think it is quite a clever move. Israel's biggest threat right now is from Iran not the Palestinians. Iran has threatened to wipe Israel off the map and it's only way of attacking Israel is with ballistic missiles so by moving the capital to Jerusalem means now Iran would have to target a Muslim holy city. They would now be responsible for threatening more Palestinians than Israel ever has.

Think about what other effects this decision will have. The US relationship with Turkey is already deteriorating, with Turkey moving closer to Russia and Iran. It certainly doesn't score the US any points in Egypt either. And it doesn't do anything to check the real progress of Iranian influence through the Middle East which is emboldened by their successes in Syria and Yemen. The move accomplishes few tangible things as it does nothing to prevent the Iranians from targeting the rest of Israel as they always have. And while Jerusalem may be the capital in name now, where does the actual government of Israel sit? What locations would you need to strike if they were your intended target?

 

[the concerned]

What that could offer is a bargaining chip to reciprocate the status in return for reigning in Iran

 

[Feanor]

What that could offer is a bargaining chip to reciprocate the status in return for reigning in Iran

Think it through. The whole thing. You want to piss off half of the Middle East, and make European allies question your judgement, while pushing Turkey closer to Russia and Iran, so you can get a concession from Iran at the cost of offending Israel by acknowledging and then un-acknowledging Jerusalem as their capital? Holy sh*t, I can't imagine a concession big enough to be worth all that. And why would Iran give the US that concession? Why would Iran want to bargain over this? This move pisses people off, stirs up the conflict between Israel and their Arab neighbors, makes the US look problematic in the eyes of their allies both in the Middle East and out of it, and at the same time accomplishes nothing for the US itself? If I was the Iranian leader right now, I'd be privately celebrating. And of course would refuse to negotiate on the issue entirely, instead demanding that the US back down voluntarily and apologize.