War Against ISIS

[Feanor]

I'm very surprised no one has discussed this on the forum yet:

Russian warplanes reportedly bombed US base in Syria | Fox News

Russian planes bombs US/UK base close to the Jordanian border. Two strikes in all kill 4 rebels. US allegedly made Russia aware of the facility (how could their intelligence not have told them so?).

US have ordered Russia to stay away from the area. Just sheer carelessness rather than a deliberate act I suspect but nonetheless it does underline the dangers that this conflict still poses.

There's indications that it was on purpose. Russia waited ~24 hours after British SpecOps left the base, and then bombed, twice, the second time being after the US warned them. Attempts to contact Russian planes in mid-air by the US "failed". I suspect this was designed to send a message.

EDIT: So it appears that the US did not notify Russia that they were operating in that area, and Russia used this as an excuse to bomb the rebels there. The US military tried to halt the strikes in real time but ran into convenient bureaucratic excuses.

 

[gazzzwp]

There's indications that it was on purpose. Russia waited ~24 hours after British SpecOps left the base, and then bombed, twice, the second time being after the US warned them. Attempts to contact Russian planes in mid-air by the US "failed". I suspect this was designed to send a message.

EDIT: So it appears that the US did not notify Russia that they were operating in that area, and Russia used this as an excuse to bomb the rebels there. The US military tried to halt the strikes in real time but ran into convenient bureaucratic excuses.

Thanks for the additional info. I am extremely surprised that this was not played up more by the media (US in particular). Hardly a WW3 event but given Russia's beligerence towards the US from the very start of this campaign I thought it would have been given greater importance.

 

[STURM]

Hardly a WW3 event but given Russia's beligerence towards the US from the very start of this campaign I thought it would have been given greater importance.

If I'm not mistaken, from the onset Russia made it clear that it was more than willing to have some kind of cooperation with the U.S. when it came to targeting IS and Al Nusra but that the U.S. - publicly at least - wasn't interested. The U.S. and allies knew from the start that Russian involvement; even if it caused some damage to IS and Al Nusra, would benefit Assad. That I feel is the main problem - the hope or insistence that Assad must go before IS and Al Nusra are defeated; followed by the hope that ''moderate'' rebels [who as events would later show, weren't so ''moderate'', united and numerous as some wanted us to believe] would then take charge of the country, unite and then defeat IS and Al Nusra. In line with the plan that Assad must go; I really hope that relevant lessons have been learnt from Afghanistan and Iraq [not to mention Libya] with regards to rebuilding a post Assad Syria and creating the conditions for long term economic and political stability.

 

[Feanor]

Thanks for the additional info. I am extremely surprised that this was not played up more by the media (US in particular). Hardly a WW3 event but given Russia's beligerence towards the US from the very start of this campaign I thought it would have been given greater importance.

I think the US might have been trying to quietly create a new "moderate" group to rely on, and thus didn't want to inform Russia about the base in question, which of course goes against the spirit (if not letter) of their agreements about the ceasefire. Russia likely wanted to show that it knew what the US was doing, and that it would be to America's detriment to try this on their own. Hence the strikes. But honestly this is just my theory. It's also possible it was a genuine error. And it appears that the State Dept. was involved in resolving the incident, to prevent it from having political fallout and media play.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Heavy fighting is continuing around Aleppo, specifically in an SAA attempt to cut the city off from the highway to Idlib. Strategic reserves have been deployed, including 240mm mortars, and Tochka ballistic missiles. Khazari fighters, trained by Iran are deployed there, as well as Russian forces (they recently took another casualty, allegedly killed by IED while guarding a humanitarian convoy but in all likelihood he was operating a BM-27 MLRS in support of the SAA forces). Meanwhile the Russian airforce is flying interdiction against rebel vehicles trying to break through to Aleppo. It's not 100% clear, but it appears that the road to Aleppo is not under direct SAA control, but is effectively shut down for rebel traffic.

ТÑжелые бои на Ñевере Ðлеппо продолжаютÑÑ - Юрий ЛÑмин
Ð’ Ðлеппо погиб роÑÑийÑкий контрактник - Colonel Cassad
https://citeam.org/ru-serviceman-nikita-shevchenko-killed-with-rebel-atgm/

In the background of this, Russia and Turkey have made nice. The pilot who shot down the Russian bomber is accused of being part of the coup, the prime minister who claimed he ordered the shoot-down has stepped down, and Erdogan has apologized (if a bit cleverly worded) for the shoot down. Russian tourists are returning to Turkey. It remains to be seen how well this works in the light of events around Aleppo. Have the Turks really given up on their Syrian ambitions?

Взаимно переобулиÑÑŒ - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½

Finally Russia has suggested that counter-terrorist efforts in Syria ought to be carried out jointly by Russia and the US. It strikes me as almost a carrot and stick approach, between the bombing of that base, and this offer. Reading between the lines, if the US wants their proxy forces safe from Russian airstrikes, they need to be on the same side as the pro-Assad coalition.

This is especially interesting in light of the mistaken strike in Manbij, where US bombs killed scores of civilians. Following which representatives of the moderates called for the US to halt conducting strikes against ISIS, pending an investigation.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ìèíîáîðîíû ïðåäëîæèëî çàïàäíûì ïàðòíåðàì ïðèñòóïèòü ê ñîâìåñòíûì äåéñòâèÿì â Ñèðèè
Syrian opposition calls for suspension of U.S.-led air strikes | Reuters

 

[ralphy99]

1. the patriot missile does not use infra red heat seeking guidance. It's not a manpad or a stinger.

2. patriot uses radar guidance. Depending on the type of patriot missile used, different techniques are required.

a. Pac 2 receives guidance from radar inputted by its operator command center ECS(process is usually completely automated). The warhead will explode when it gets into proximity of the target via a proximity fuse.

Israel uses a Pac 2 GEM which consists of a quicker, more target enhancing proximity fuse. The old Pac 2 proximity fuse just wasn't quick enough.

b. Pac 3 which Israel does not have according to the all seeing all knowing wiki, receives initial guidance from the ECS but has an independent k band active seeking radar in its nose cone and hits the target directly. It has a small war head as backup also but it really wants to hit to kill like a good NFL defensive linebacker.

both types of missiles are designed to operate automatically w/o operator interference but the operator may do so if they wish.

the failure of the patriot system doesn't prove anything other than Israel's ability to throw a lot of money at probably a tiny target.

ADMk2 your sense of humor is even more unspectacular than my messages.

 

[ngatimozart]

ADMk2 your sense of humor is even more unspectacular than my messages.

The polite warning was about your use of the term "kuffar" which has offensive connotations. FYI, ADMk2 is Aussie & like the British they are experts at the use of sarcasm.

On a serious note, we do not accept derogatory terms because they break the rules. Regard this as a formal warning about using derogatory terms and attempting to pick fights with Moderators. Any further breaches by you will result in Moderators taking further action after consultation. Such action could include a ban.

 

[Bonza]

I reckon we could all just relax a little bit. No more kuffar this and kuffar that and everything will be fine. All good?

 

[STURM]

1. the patriot missile does not use infra red heat seeking guidance. It's not a manpad or a stinger.

Yes I'm aware of that. My mention of MANPADs that apparently were unable to lock on to UAVs and target drones was not in reference to the apparent failure of the Israeli Patriot to destroy its target.

 

[ralphy99]

I reckon we could all just relax a little bit. No more kuffar this and kuffar that and everything will be fine. All good?

yes indeed, thanks.

 

[ralphy99]

Yes I'm aware of that. My mention of MANPADs that apparently were unable to lock on to UAVs and target drones was not in reference to the apparent failure of the Israeli Patriot to destroy its target.

I can't imagine firing a patriot w/o an initial radar lock.certainly not if it was in automatic mode. however from the news press no statement is made revealing operator decision support input or not...... they ain't saying.

modern air to air proximity fuses uses optical laser and timing of the back scatter. a far cry from the old doppler radar V.T. fuse introduced to the US by the British Tizard Mission in 1940,

the question remains how good of a radar lock did they have before launch? was there any operator input? does a drone exist that does not reflect laser back scatter thus foiling a proximity fuse? any ideas?

 

[Ranger25]

Yes I'm aware of that. My mention of MANPADs that apparently were unable to lock on to UAVs and target drones was not in reference to the apparent failure of the Israeli Patriot to destroy its target.

Agreed, in fact the advent/proliferation of UAVs is spawning a whole new Counter UAVs industry. The us Army is actively working with DARPA on multiple designs, many of which include pelletized fragmentation style effects or directed energy.

 

[STURM]

Russia and the U.S. appear to be close to signing an agreement towards cooperation in Syria. Given that the U.S. has resisted cooperating - at least publicly - with Russia as long as Russia supported Assad and targeted ''moderate'' rebel groups; it's probably safe to assume that the U.S. has finally come around to acknowledging that some level of cooperation with Russia is needed to roll back IS and Al Nusra. No doubt countries like Saudi and Qatar might not be pleased as Russian/U.S. cooperation will mean that Assad will stay on for a lot longer and that Iran will continue to be involved in Syria. Hopefully Russia and the U.S. will be able to respectively rein in the Syrian government and the ''moderate'' rebels so a lasting ceasefire can be achieved. But as the video asks; will the Syrian people actually benefit?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sj_pmp2S24g

 

[Feanor]

Update.

In Northern Aleppo, Tiger Force and 4th Mech Division, together with Kurdish militias has completed the encirclement of the rebels in Aleppo.

Reports of fighting have come in between Kurdish and Arabic components of the SDF.

Around Damascus, the SAA is continuing their slow push towards rebel strongholds in Eastern Ghouta.

Окружение боевиков в воÑточной чаÑти Ðлеппо - Юрий ЛÑмин
https://aftershock.news/?q=node/420593

It appears that the Syrians are getting some Russian Su-24M2. The Russian regiment flying those planes has recently taken delivery of Su-34s.

ВВС Сирии получили фронтовые бомбардировщики Су-24М2 - bmpd

Satellite imagery of a US base in northern Syria. It looks like earlier rumors were correct.

Базы СШРв Северной Сирии - Colonel Cassad

There's some information on tensions between Hezbollah and the SAA over the large casualties Hezbollah has taken in the course of the war in Syria.

РаÑтет взаимное недовольÑтво между ÑирийÑкой армией и "Хезболлой" - bmpd

In the backdrop, the Russo-Turkish love affair continues. After publicly thanking Russia for their support during the coup, Turkey announced they're starting a new investigation of the incident with the downing of the Su-24, and have resumed talks on the Turkish Stream pipeline.

https://aftershock.news/?q=node/421255
https://aftershock.news/?q=node/421272

 

[ngatimozart]

The UAV that the Israelis couldn't shoot down appears to be one that they have sold to Russia. It is believed to have been a Searcher 2 which is a type that IAI have previously sold to the Russians and is being operated by them in Syria. The US have strengthened their banned on further UAV sales to Russia which the Israelis have been fighting.

 

[Feanor]

The UAV that the Israelis couldn't shoot down appears to be one that they have sold to Russia. It is believed to have been a Searcher 2 which is a type that IAI have previously sold to the Russians and is being operated by them in Syria. The US have strengthened their banned on further UAV sales to Russia which the Israelis have been fighting.

An odd claim, since I know that additional sales of Searchers to Russia continued as late as 2015. I'll double-check the information again. UZGA is the Russian plant that license-assembles the knock-down kits and they were still working on the latest batch last time I checked.

EDIT: IAI and UZGA are working together on a Russified Searcher that will be produced in Russia, with an unspecified amount of Israeli participation.

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/1944292.html

And Russia plans to continue purchases of the Forpost over the next few years, 30 more units. And the last purchase took place in 2015 of 10 units.

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/1835824.html

Finally an additional squadron of Searchers was created in the North Fleet recently, confirming that new Searchers are incoming. It should also be kept in mind that at least 2 UAVs were downed in Ukraine.

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/2029756.html

It really doesn't look like there is a ban to sell Searchers or their technology to Russia. But maybe I'm wrong. When did the US ban take place?

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Aleppo is definitely surrounded. The Syrians are talking about having humanitarian corridors to let fighters exit, and are offering amnesty to rebel fighters that surrender.

It also appears that the SAA has captured large numbers of improvised mortars, and shells for them. Everyone loves talking about collateral damage caused by western airstrikes, and Assad's forces, but what about the collateral damage caused by widespread use of systems like these?

Окружение воÑточного Ðлеппо - Юрий ЛÑмин
Обвал обороны "зеленых" в Ðлеппо - Colonel Cassad

An-Nusra has publicly severed ties with al-Qaeda, and apparently with the blessing of the latter. Though I strongly suspect this is merely for show.

"Джебхат ан-ÐуÑра" Ñменила кожу.. - Юрий ЛÑмин

Meanwhile the Tu-214R returns to Syria. A reminder, it's Russia's most advanced air-based ELINT/SIGINT harvester. It also, allegedly, carries EO gear for observation.

And Russian humanitarian aid has been delivered to Aleppo. Previously the main recipient of such aid has been Deyr-ez-Zor. Russian sources claim this is the beginning of a large-scale humanitarian aid effort in Aleppo.

Ðаши в Сирии - Colonel Cassad
?????? ?????? ?????????? ???????????? ???????? ? ??????

 

[ngatimozart]

Update.
The US are working their way through a treasure trove of intelligence about Daesh fighters including some who have returned to their homelands. The information was recovered by Kurdish and Arab forces retaking Manbij.

The French are going to form a National Guard from police, paramilitary police and military using volunteers from existing reserve forces. The aim is for better protection of the French population from terrorist attacks.

The purges of the Turkish military are having impacts upon the fight against Daesh with around 1/3 of Turkish generals being detained. These included the ones who have been liaising with the Coalition Forces.

The US-Russian cooperation attempt has had two major setbacks with the SAA closing off access to Aleppo and Assad telling it's citizens and surrendering rebels to leave.

 

[Feanor]

The UAV that the Israelis couldn't shoot down appears to be one that they have sold to Russia. It is believed to have been a Searcher 2 which is a type that IAI have previously sold to the Russians and is being operated by them in Syria. The US have strengthened their banned on further UAV sales to Russia which the Israelis have been fighting.

Hey ngati, I was wondering if you had any more details on the UAV ban. As far as I can tell, the Searcher is an Israeli development, not joint with the US. Presumably they can sell it to whoever they choose, no?

 

[ngatimozart]

Hey ngati, I was wondering if you had any more details on the UAV ban. As far as I can tell, the Searcher is an Israeli development, not joint with the US. Presumably they can sell it to whoever they choose, no?

I don't. I just saw it on the Defence News Early Bird Brief. I would presume that if they have any US tech in them then ITAR will be involved and the State Dept decides what US tech is covered by ITAR and what isn't.