War Against ISIS

Ranger25

Active Member
Staff member
I wondered if it was worth some discussion on the new Koral EW system installed by Turkey?

It would certainly be an ideal time to test such equipment with the powerful Russian radar's operating in the area. It raises a wider question about whether the US would be covertly studying the characteristics of the Russian equipment to find it's signatures and weaknesses.

I cannot imagine that they are not working hard on this issue close to the Syrian border.

Turkey receives first Koral land-based EW system | IHS Jane's 360
I think this was an electromagnetic spectrum tested for both Russia and the US to collect data on each other's systems from the beginning
 

surpreme

Member
I wondered if it was worth some discussion on the new Koral EW system installed by Turkey?

It would certainly be an ideal time to test such equipment with the powerful Russian radar's operating in the area. It raises a wider question about whether the US would be covertly studying the characteristics of the Russian equipment to find it's signatures and weaknesses.

I cannot imagine that they are not working hard on this issue close to the Syrian border.

Turkey receives first Koral land-based EW system | IHS Jane's 360
Agreed with you on this one. Western militaries also has a inside source on the S-400 system already. The main thing is to find out how it work in a area with EW so close and in war like environment.
The world is ready to see how the system work against western EW. Koral land EW system is a top of line system. Are we living in time where U.S. meet Russia who has a good EW systems? Russia show some progress in EW but no one know how it will handle western EW system. It should be very interesting to see the resorts of these tests between Russia and NATO/ Turkey.
 

Toblerone

Banned Member
Anyone has any input on what is going on in Iraq, politically wise? This Sadrist Movement party seems to be gaining momentum and pressuring for a technocratic government in the upcoming reshuffle with a deadline of 29 March. They are pro-Iran and anti-USA.

Will PM Abadi fall? Will there be elections? The last ones where before ISIS exploded in the summer of 2014.

EDIT: My post is about this post that I read:
http://iswresearch.blogspot.gr/2016/03/iraq-situation-report-march-15-21-2016.html
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Rotation vs withdrawal.

Many Russian sources have been speculating that the declared "withdrawal" is in reality little more then a rotation, as well as an adjustment of the aircraft deployed to Syria. So far the results of the withdrawal are that 3 Su-24M, 4 Su-34, and 12 Su-25SM went back to Russia. However it's important to remember that the airgroup there was strengthened with 4 Su-24M and Su-34 not too long before the withdrawal. There was info that the intense combat operations led to some aircraft requiring more work done on them, and this might be the reason they're being sent back to Russia. The Su-25s may simply have turned out to be less useful then expected, given both the limitations of the aircraft and the nature of the fighting (another theory is that since the fighting in Idlib and Homs is mostly over, for now, they're no longer needed). As far as helos go, the 4 Mi-35M have been withdrawn and replaced with at least 2 Ka-52 and 2 Mi-28N.

The retaining of the current airgroup is partially justified by intense fighting around Palmyra where Russian air strikes and helo CAS play a significant role. The assault on Palmyra proper is either in progress or about to begin. It's entirely possible that taking Palmyra will open the road to Deyr-ez-Zor.

Ð*оÑÑийÑÐºÐ°Ñ Ð°Ð²Ð¸Ð°Ñ†Ð¸Ð¾Ð½Ð½Ð°Ñ Ð³Ñ€ÑƒÐ¿Ð¿Ð¸Ñ€Ð¾Ð²ÐºÐ° в Сирии на 20 марта - bmpd
УÐ*-83П на грузовике ? - Юрий ЛÑмин
Бои за Пальмиру - Colonel Cassad
gurkhan.blogspot.com/2016/03/72_26.html
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
certainly been referred to here for the last few weeks as a being a rotation and force refreshment rather than a withdrawal
Basically the airgroup went.

+4 Su-34
+4 Su-35S
+4 Su-24M
+2 Ka-52
+2 Mi-28N
-4 Su-34
-3 Su-24M
-12 Su-25SM
-4 Mi-35M

A net loss of only 7 jets. Meanwhile with the appearance of the Russian Searchers and Su-35S, they've actually gained in capability while slightly shrinking in size. And of course nothing stop them from tossing a squadron of Su-25s and Su-24/34s back to Syria, if fighting against non-ISIS groups flares up again.

There's something else I've been meaning to ask you. There's some murky info about Russian missile complexes in Syria, on the MZKT chassis, looking an awful lot like Iskanders. Around the same time there was unconfirmed info of 3 Russian cruise missiles striking targets in Hama province. Theoretically they could have come from the Buyan-M in the Mediterranean too. Have you heard anything on the subject?
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
The BBC has reported that the SAA has, with the assistance of Russian airstrikes, taken full control of the SyriaTel Hill on the western edge of Palmyra before taking the ancient citadel of the nearby castle, known as Qalaat Shirkuh or Qalaat Ibn Maan. Once they take the city it will be a significant victory for the Assad govt. They have also cut off the main Palmyra-Deir Ezzor highway leading to the Iraqi border. At the same time across the border, it has been reported that the Iraqi army has started the assault to recapture Mosul. This assault is being supported by US and Coalition airstrikes.

In another development the US have announced that they have eliminated the Daesh 2 i/c Abd ar-Rahman Mustafa al-Qaduli, a.k.a., Haji Imam a.k.a, Abu Alaa al-Afri, who was also Daesh's top finance officer and who was thought to have been killed in May 2015. Hopefully they have got him this time. His elimination will have a detrimental impact upon Daesh, but how much remains to be seen. However this coupled with the military setback at Palmyra and the assault on Mosul will be placing strain on Daesh's manpower, logistical and financial resources. If the Syrians and Iraqis can succeed in keeping and actually increasing this pressure on Daesh, for a significant period of time, they have the potential to bleed Daesh dry until it's position spatially, manpower wise, logistically and financially is deleteriously untenable and unsustainable.
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
There's something else I've been meaning to ask you. There's some murky info about Russian missile complexes in Syria, on the MZKT chassis, looking an awful lot like Iskanders. Around the same time there was unconfirmed info of 3 Russian cruise missiles striking targets in Hama province. Theoretically they could have come from the Buyan-M in the Mediterranean too. Have you heard anything on the subject?
I've been under the impression that the russians did conduct some sea based cruise missile strikes....
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I've been under the impression that the russians did conduct some sea based cruise missile strikes....
Yes on 3 occasions. I'm talking about an alleged strike 4th, after the ceasefire was in effect, hitting targets in some province, sources differ (this one claims Idlib, I've seen others with Hama province or Homs mentioned). The assumption is another Kalibr launch out of the Mediterranean, but when put together with rumors of a missile complex deployment, and the fact that a new Iskander-K cruise missile recently entered service officially, it leaves me wondering. Or have you heard that the post-ceasefire strike was also sea-launched?

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russian-cruise-missiles-strike-nusra-positions-idlib-province/

The BBC has reported that the SAA has, with the assistance of Russian airstrikes, taken full control of the SyriaTel Hill on the western edge of Palmyra before taking the ancient citadel of the nearby castle, known as Qalaat Shirkuh or Qalaat Ibn Maan. Once they take the city it will be a significant victory for the Assad govt. They have also cut off the main Palmyra-Deir Ezzor highway leading to the Iraqi border. At the same time across the border, it has been reported that the Iraqi army has started the assault to recapture Mosul. This assault is being supported by US and Coalition airstrikes.

In another development the US have announced that they have eliminated the Daesh 2 i/c Abd ar-Rahman Mustafa al-Qaduli, a.k.a., Haji Imam a.k.a, Abu Alaa al-Afri, who was also Daesh's top finance officer and who was thought to have been killed in May 2015. Hopefully they have got him this time. His elimination will have a detrimental impact upon Daesh, but how much remains to be seen. However this coupled with the military setback at Palmyra and the assault on Mosul will be placing strain on Daesh's manpower, logistical and financial resources. If the Syrians and Iraqis can succeed in keeping and actually increasing this pressure on Daesh, for a significant period of time, they have the potential to bleed Daesh dry until it's position spatially, manpower wise, logistically and financially is deleteriously untenable and unsustainable.
The Battle for Palmyra, it seems like it's a matter of time before the SAA clear the city. Meanwhile another Russian service member has been killed, after calling an air strike on his own position. He was reportedly providing FAC to the VVS operating around Palmyra. This death coincides with a spike in Russian airstrikes around Palmyra, and seems completely plausible.

http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2673646.html
http://panzerbar.livejournal.com/3250116.html

More combat footage around Palmyra. Note the rarely seen Syrian Gazelles, firing HOT missiles.

http://imp-navigator.livejournal.com/441903.html
 

Toblerone

Banned Member
This is the State Department's stance on the Palmyra siege from March 23. The title is misleading, Russia Insider added that. But basically what I gather is that they do not want to admit the SAA/Russia/Iran coalition's successes and legitimate fighting against ISIS.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uxs7yog_CjM

In the meantime SAA have basically captured Palmyra.

ISW Blog: Russian-Syrian-Iranian Coalition Seizes ISIS-Held Palmyra

I took a look in Google Maps of the area across the length of that highway that passes through Palmyra. It is very ... barren. The next city (Al-Sukhnah?) is much smaller than Palmyra.

Does anyone have an opinion on how dependable the Syrian Observatory for Human rights is? With regards to frontline news?
 

TRWquw33

New Member
while the outcome in ramadi is a positive development , a great deal remains to be accomplished. the fog of war and initial reports can create an inaccurate picture. we may not have reliable reports on isis precise power in various parts of the city. and it remains unclear when existing isis pockets in ramadi will be cleared, who will hold the areas and what kind of reconstruction effort will be undertaken. a failure by the iraqi gourment to deliver in the aftermath of the ramadi campaign could very well fuel an isis resurgence.
 

gazzzwp

Member
Feanor what do you feel is the reason behind Iskander deployment? What is it that Russia cannot achieve by conventional bombing against a poorly equipped enemy? Could it be to demonstrate weapons capability to a wider audience as with the Kalibre CM's?

Perhaps justified against the backdrop of rising tensions with NATO over recent US troop build up in Eastern Europe? Just a thought.
 

chris

New Member
Feanor what do you feel is the reason behind Iskander deployment? What is it that Russia cannot achieve by conventional bombing against a poorly equipped enemy? Could it be to demonstrate weapons capability to a wider audience as with the Kalibre CM's?

Perhaps justified against the backdrop of rising tensions with NATO over recent US troop build up in Eastern Europe? Just a thought.
Well, I'm not Feanor but I can throw my undocumented opinion. I believe that there is lots of secret diplomacy between US and Russia about Syria. And when you have US evacuating US personnel families from Incirlik, at the same time with an "accidental" video confirming Iskander presence well within range, I think that is a combined message to Turkey not to attempt anything alone (or with KSA).
 

Ranger25

Active Member
Staff member
Well, I'm not Feanor but I can throw my undocumented opinion. I believe that there is lots of secret diplomacy between US and Russia about Syria. And when you have US evacuating US personnel families from Incirlik, at the same time with an "accidental" video confirming Iskander presence well within range, I think that is a combined message to Turkey not to attempt anything alone (or with KSA).
Not Feanor, but two thoughts here too

-Syrian has been an invaluable tested for combat testing of Russian systems (Kalibre, S400 Radar vs Western Aircraft, MI28, EW, etc etc etc) the Isklander is no different IMO. Testing for internal reasons and just as importantly Export success

- I don't believe the US dependent Evac aligns with Russian deployment/redeployment. More in line with the current terrorism threat level in the region
 
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Toblerone

Banned Member
This reminds me of the posts wondering about the anti-aircraft systems the russians were deploying at the start of their syrian involvement. Since the rebels have no airforce... Well, in retrospect that wasn't a bad idea at all, was it?

Obviously, it's better to be prepared for escalation. What are they supposed to do in the case of a Turkey confrontation except (threaten to) use cruise missiles? Their force in Syria is tiny, there has to be some more deterrence. That's the way I see it anyway.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
What are they supposed to do in the case of a Turkey confrontation except (threaten to) use cruise missiles? .
I guess they need to consult with their ally Iran as to what level of confrontation should be considered against Turkey. I can't see Iran wanting a major confrontation with Turkey without massive Russian commitment, both military and a big "No" to any Kurdish state.
 
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