Venezuela is buying 9 SSKs !

[contedicavour]

I just read on www.meretmarine.com that the Venezuelan Navy admiral has announced the procurement of 9 SSKs (apparently with AIP + an autonomy of 50 days is required) with selection process finalized by end 2007.
France had refused to allow DCN to sell Scorpene, but it now seems that Spain has offered S-80. Since S-80 have American combat systems integration, it is now likely that Scorpène will be proposed to Venezuela after all. Spain will lead the procurement since Zapatero doesn't care about irritating the US (while France is being more moderate), with of course a workload split with DCN which is co-owner of Scorpene programme.
Other candidates are HDW U214 and Russia's Amur.

IMO if the objective is creating problems for the US, a modern SSK is the adequate weapons system, especially if it has AIP. Any surface vessel would be more easily destroyed by the USN than SSKs loitering around the Caribbean, where SSNs would be suboptimal.

I wonder if Venezuela will still be able to fund all this with the oil price crashing down in the last few months, but here we've got a serious issue.

Any comments ?

cheers

 

[Tasman]

I just read on www.meretmarine.com that the Venezuelan Navy admiral has announced the procurement of 9 SSKs (apparently with AIP + an autonomy of 50 days is required) with selection process finalized by end 2007.
France had refused to allow DCN to sell Scorpene, but it now seems that Spain has offered S-80. Since S-80 have American combat systems integration, it is now likely that Scorpène will be proposed to Venezuela after all. Spain will lead the procurement since Zapatero doesn't care about irritating the US (while France is being more moderate), with of course a workload split with DCN which is co-owner of Scorpene programme.
Other candidates are HDW U214 and Russia's Amur.

IMO if the objective is creating problems for the US, a modern SSK is the adequate weapons system, especially if it has AIP. Any surface vessel would be more easily destroyed by the USN than SSKs loitering around the Caribbean, where SSNs would be suboptimal.

I wonder if Venezuela will still be able to fund all this with the oil price crashing down in the last few months, but here we've got a serious issue.

Any comments ?

cheers

A purchase of 9 SSKs by Venezuela will certainly change the balance of power in that part of the world. I wonder if it has the potential to trigger a naval arms race in South America?

 

[contedicavour]

A purchase of 9 SSKs by Venezuela will certainly change the balance of power in that part of the world. I wonder if it has the potential to trigger a naval arms race in South America?

It might also trigger a change in submarine procurement by the USN. I don't see Seawolf or Virginia class SSNs sailing in 100 metre deep seas hunting around for silent Scorpene.
On a positive side, at least those OHP FFs with no SM1 anymore have a job tailored out for them, real ASW !!

cheers

 

[swerve]

Venezuela has two old Type 209s. A couple of years ago Venezuela was supposed to be looking to buy 3 new subs. 9 is a big jump.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Well this sure seems like an intelligent use of Venezuelans' taxes - I mean, it's not as if it could be used to reduce poverty or anything.....

 

[Falstaff]

Isn't it more likely for Venezuela to buy Kilos or the new Armur? I don't think they can get any western design without serious trouble for their manufacturers from the US, regarding that SSKs are a littlebit more of a threat than cargo planes

 

[gf0012-aust]

I don't see Seawolf or Virginia class SSNs sailing in 100 metre deep seas hunting around for silent Scorpene.

why not? a couple of pertinent reality sound bites.

• USS Parche regularly entered Soviet Northern Waters in virtually keel scraping mode to harvest off Soviet sea bed cables. Parches replacement is an order of magnitude better in capability.
• the new combat systems and weapons systems for the Seawolf/Virginias/688I's (and by assoc Collins) are optimised for fighting conventional subs in the littorals - and green water conflicts
• CBASS is designed to deal with conventional subs
• the Venezuelans might have bought the toys, but they won't have sea time experience. A venezuelan sub against a USN sub crew who train for long range and persistent missions - no contest.
• dissimilar training - the venezuelans don't have adversity training against any competent "orange" forces. no training = less capability.

9 subs? more like 9 targets.

 

[Falstaff]

why not? a couple of pertinent reality sound bites.

• USS Parche regularly entered Soviet Northern Waters in virtually keel scraping mode to harvest off Soviet sea bed cables. Parches replacement is an order of magnitude better in capability.
• the new combat systems and weapons systems for the Seawolf/Virginias/688I's (and by assoc Collins) are optimised for fighting conventional subs in the littorals - and green water conflicts
• CBASS is designed to deal with conventional subs
• the Venezuelans might have bought the toys, but they won't have sea time experience. A venezuelan sub against a USN sub crew who train for long range and persistent missions - no contest.
• dissimilar training - the venezuelans don't have adversity training against any competent "orange" forces. no training = less capability.

9 subs? more like 9 targets.

Isn't that a bit of a simplistic view?
1. They are not building their submarine force from scratch
2. They have lots of oil money to buy knowledge and experts to train their crews
3. As 9 subs won't materialize all of a sudden but take quite a few years to build and deliever, there's plenty of time
4. An state of the art SSK still poses a threat and if operated properly is a pain in the ass

 

[gf0012-aust]

Isn't that a bit of a simplistic view?
1. They are not building their submarine force from scratch
2. They have lots of oil money to buy knowledge and experts to train their crews
3. As 9 subs won't materialize all of a sudden but take quite a few years to build and deliever, there's plenty of time
4. An state of the art SSK still poses a threat and if operated properly is a pain in the ass

Its hardly simplistic at all - its the reality of whats involved in training and having a competent sub force.

The venezuelans might have the money - but money does not translate into capability.

The Soviets had the money and the political will - and still lacked competency in ASW. Money is not the benchmark for competency.

They don't engage in DUCT - and the most competent Sth American navies in the region don't do co-operative training with them at all.

Of course 4 is valid. But new subs won't alter the fact that new toys don't demonstrate competency.

You do understand how long it takes to train up to that capability? I'd rate 3 other navies in that region a golden mile ahead of the Venzuelans.

 

[Falstaff]

Shame on me: What is DUCT?

Well, I must confess I don't know if the two 209-class subs are still operational and I don't know how long it would take to select and train crews, learn tactics and use of new equipment. So what do you think? How long would it take to become combat ready?

It's just that I'm quite worried about these news as I think the buildup of the Venezuelan navy clearly aims north and I always understood SSKs as a suitable means not only to disturb traffic but also as a force multiplier. Even if you have a greenhorn crew in those subs it will take a lot of efforts to find and destroy these subs in case of a confrontation. You will have to protect civilian ships (and perhaps close ports as well) and use a lot of MPAs and ships to search for them. Just the knowledge that they are there with (perhaps) submarine launched AShM is effective enough.
Imagine how much fear 4-5 of these subs in the mexican gulf would cause. Don't you think so? You don't seem to worry at all.

 

[bd popeye]

gf0012-aust is 100% correct. As someone who served 20 years in the USN I can tell you training is the most important part of preparing for warfare. If you do no't know how to operate the new weapons you have in all situations. You might as well saty home.

You cannot buy knowledge. You can oly gain knowledge through intense training & study.

Imagine how much fear 4-5 of these subs in the mexican gulf would cause. Don't you think so? You don't seem to worry at all.

I'm not. The USN constanly trains to combat situations such as this. The USN has leased the Swedish sub HMS Gotland since the summer of 2005 for training purposes.

http://www.news.navy.mil/search/display.asp?story_id=18984

http://www.navy.mil/search/display.asp?story_id=21464

The USN has contracted the Gotland to remain in the US for training an additional year.

http://www.kockums.se/News/060613gotland.html

If need be. And I hope not. The USN will be ready.

Venezuela is years way from having any viable submarine force.

 

[Falstaff]

As someone who served 20 years in the USN

I know! Hi, bd! Nice to meet some other guy from the sinodefence-forum. I remember your discussions with that patriotic chinese kids.

I'm not. The USN constanly trains to combat situations such as this. The USN has leased the Swedish sub HMS Gotland

Yeah, I know. And I know that our (german navy) subs cross the atlantic for joint exercises regularly. I read on "Marineforum" (which isn't a forum but a magazine www.marineforum.info, sorry, it's german) that the USN had some difficulties with our tiny U206A-class boats in the past. It was claimed that during one exercise some years ago they could not be tracked but once and then were lost again. Perhaps you know something about these exercises? (I shall say that boasting is not too common with that magazine, which in the past proved reliable).
Ok, no comparison, the german submarine force exists for nearly 100 years now and sure is well trained.
But it would be interesting if things have improved?

The USN will be ready.

I truly hope so.

 

[Wooki]

I just read on www.meretmarine.com that the Venezuelan Navy admiral has announced the procurement of 9 SSKs (apparently with AIP + an autonomy of 50 days is required) with selection process finalized by end 2007.
France had refused to allow DCN to sell Scorpene, but it now seems that Spain has offered S-80. Since S-80 have American combat systems integration, it is now likely that Scorpène will be proposed to Venezuela after all. Spain will lead the procurement since Zapatero doesn't care about irritating the US (while France is being more moderate), with of course a workload split with DCN which is co-owner of Scorpene programme.
Other candidates are HDW U214 and Russia's Amur.

IMO if the objective is creating problems for the US, a modern SSK is the adequate weapons system, especially if it has AIP. Any surface vessel would be more easily destroyed by the USN than SSKs loitering around the Caribbean, where SSNs would be suboptimal.

I wonder if Venezuela will still be able to fund all this with the oil price crashing down in the last few months, but here we've got a serious issue.

Any comments ?

cheers

This is great news.. I wonder if they will be marketing rides and the like for the SSKs, Su27's, etc, etc.

It would add a lot to the tourism dollar.

Seriously though. You have to start somewhere. The key to gauging whether its a good start is to determine where the procurement drive has originated. if its from a professional source. e.g. Navy and wotshizface has actually listened, then I would give it more credence.

If it comes from wotshizface himself, then its a bit of a dead duck and unlikely to bear fruit, as he'll want to keep meddling in the process of development and trainign, I am sure.

cheers

w

 

[bd popeye]

I know! Hi, bd! Nice to meet some other guy from the sinodefence-forum. I remember your discussions with that patriotic chinese kids

Thanks. I've been lurking here for some time. But this subject intrest me very much.

Yeah, I know. And I know that our (german navy) subs cross the atlantic for joint exercises regularly. I read on "Marineforum" (which isn't a forum but a magazine www.marineforum.info, sorry, it's german) that the USN had some difficulties with our tiny U206A-class boats in the past. It was claimed that during one exercise some years ago they could not be tracked but once and then were lost again. Perhaps you know something about these exercises?

As I have posted in another forum let me tell you my personal view of joint military excersises.

Joint military excersises or ant type of US military excersise is just that. An Excersise. Many times during these excersises there are limits placed on either side as to what they can and cannot due. As an example>>Once in 1981 my squadron on board CV-66 was not permitted to use certian aspects of it's equipment on our aircraft during an ASW excersise. We were a S-3 Viking outfit. Think about that.

I've been in on breifs where the word was put out that the "orange forces" were to win this time. And we "blue forces" will win the next time. Military excersises are often times orchcastrated by Admrial and Generals. And often limitations are placed on both sides.

Military excersises and wargames are for the benifit of both sides. They are used as a test of men and equipment and how well they are trained in their war fighting ablity.

That being said every military excersise is not conducted in the same. And, I'm in no way discounting the ablity of any SSK to elude the USN. I know they can. My son, A seinor surface sonar tech in the USN tells me SSK's are very hard to find. This is why the US contracted the Gotland. To learn how to find them and kill them..

The USN has had succes in tracking the Gotland. If I can later find a link to that story I will post it. It's in sinodefence forum somehwere...

 

[Super Nimrod]

And there was most Western Navy's hoping to cut back on ASW costs on their frigates with the decline of the Russian Sub threat. No doubt there might be something of a small but nonetheless important rethink now if these cheap but quiet SSK start to proliferate even further ?

 

[radiosilence]

The purchase of 9 SSKs seems like overkill for a country like Venezuela. It will take years for them to train capable crews for these Subs. The Russians will be the favorites to win this tender since Venezuela is buying everything Russians these days. Europeans will face US pressure not to sell to Venezuela.

 

[Neutral Zone]

Agreed, I wonder if this is a rumour designed to annoy the Americans. If it's true then IMHO it would be a complete vanity purchase by Chavez. Previous contributors have rightly mentioned America's considerable ASW capability be it SOSUS, FFG's, P-3's etc. I doubt that in any conflict a Venezuelan SSK would last for any length of time.

 

[tatra]

Agreed, I wonder if this is a rumour designed to annoy the Americans. If it's true then IMHO it would be a complete vanity purchase by Chavez. Previous contributors have rightly mentioned America's considerable ASW capability be it SOSUS, FFG's, P-3's etc. I doubt that in any conflict a Venezuelan SSK would last for any length of time.

Like Venezuelan Flankers would last long against the a/c of one or 2 USN carriers .... which still didn't deter Venezuela from getting those. Six SSK are an interesting complement to 6 Lupo frigates (2 of which modernized 1998-2002 at Litton-Ingals) carrying 150km Otomat Mk2 Block IV, Selenia Aspide, 1x 127mm naval gun, 2x twin 40mm Breda AAA, helicopter.

 

[contedicavour]

It has been interesting reading going through all the posts, thks

Although I fully understand that Venezuela would need may be 10 years or more to manage to operate properly such a big SSK fleet, I'm still wondering about a few issues :

> the USN currently doesn't allocate anything serious to the Caribbean (which makes sense, today's there's no threat). If the last carrier (Kennedy right ?) leaves Florida, there will be a couple of Burke and a few (NRF ?) OHPs left to patrol the areas. If the 9 Venezuelan SSKs materialize, the USN will have to deploy permanently half a dozen dedicated ASW FFGs and at least 3-5 SSNs to the area. Why so many ? Because if Venezuela spreads out its SSKs over the entire Caribbean Gulf, that will require quite a lot of assets to chase them. The USN would destroy them for sure, but how much damage would the SSKs have done before the SSNs kill them ??

> I'm glad to read that USN SSNs are now accustomed to green water operations. I'm just wondering if it is worth the risk of losing a huge precious SSN in 100 meter deep waters (in the nightmare scenario of a lucky shot by a silent immobile SSK on the seabed) or whether the USN shouldn't deploy a few small SSKs of its own for Caribbean Gulf operations.

> there are more than a few ex Russian submariners who would love to be paid decently to train potential Venezuelan Amur SSKs ... remember who flew the Flankers in Angola, Ethiopia, Eritrea ... ? This should not be underestimated.

=> Last but not least, it's not a matter of whether the USN would be able to get rid of the nuisance, because of course it would. The matter is that short of war, the USN has a big nuisance coming up and can only deploy a lot more assets to counter it. Chavez' plans (Flankers, attack helos, subs) are not to beat the US, just to progressively become a big nuisance. That communist dictator is transforming his dreams into reality.

cheers (nonetheless )

 

[aaaditya]

i believe that the chinese would be very keen to provide their yuan class of submarines on a lease -purchase agreement with transfer of crew and trainers,this would give them a virtual access to the us backyard and will give usa a really big headache .