Ukranian Crisis

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wittmanace

Active Member
It is confirmed as having been planned pre Crimean tensions.

From bbc live updates:
"20:36: A US official, speaking anonymously to Reuters, says Washington received prior notification of Russia's missile test plans, which pre-dated Russia's military movements in Crimea.
This comes in line with Moscow's commitments under the nuclear arms treaty between Russia and the USA, the official adds."
To be honest, a major concern is that fact that troops don't make for good law enforcement anywhere, for the simple reason that troops surrounded by civilians or other troops, during high tension situations, are a ready powder keg. The situation is asking a great deal of both sides, and the restraint on both sides on the ground has been impressive.

Regarding which troops they are, I am interested in the comments reported by the time journalist that was there at the balbek standoff. They seem to suggest some of them are from berkut, no?

I don't know why it shows me as quoting myself....it isn't intentional, I haven't been learning from Fox News or Russia today.
 
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swerve

Super Moderator
.. Right Sector and Svoboda are very worrying, to put it mildly. ...
Indeed they are. Let's hope that they do badly in the elections.

Unfortunately, they currently have a very powerful ally in Moscow, doing his best to boost their support.

Interesting story about the election of the new prime minister of Crimea. Leader of a party called 'Russian Unity', which has 3 MPs in a house of 100. Elected on February 27th in a closed session, surrounded by unidentified Russian-speaking armed men, mobile communication devices taken from the MPs present, staff shown out of the building. Unclear how many MPs were present. Those who disagreed with the proceedings seem to have been encouraged to leave. Not ratified by either Yanukovich or the new acting president, although this is a constitutional requirement.
 

wittmanace

Active Member
Indeed they are. Let's hope that they do badly in the elections.

Unfortunately, they currently have a very powerful ally in Moscow, doing his best to boost their support.

Interesting story about the election of the new prime minister of Crimea. Leader of a party called 'Russian Unity', which has 3 MPs in a house of 100. Elected on February 27th in a closed session, surrounded by unidentified Russian-speaking armed men, mobile communication devices taken from the MPs present, staff shown out of the building. Unclear how many MPs were present. Those who disagreed with the proceedings seem to have been encouraged to leave. Not ratified by either Yanukovich or the new acting president, although this is a constitutional requirement.
I think that what happens on 30 march will be interesting. Announcing that, took the scrutiny off of the events you mention it seems.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Indeed they are. Let's hope that they do badly in the elections.

Unfortunately, they currently have a very powerful ally in Moscow, doing his best to boost their support.

Interesting story about the election of the new prime minister of Crimea. Leader of a party called 'Russian Unity', which has 3 MPs in a house of 100. Elected on February 27th in a closed session, surrounded by unidentified Russian-speaking armed men, mobile communication devices taken from the MPs present, staff shown out of the building. Unclear how many MPs were present. Those who disagreed with the proceedings seem to have been encouraged to leave. Not ratified by either Yanukovich or the new acting president, although this is a constitutional requirement.
There's a theory wandering around the Russian internet that Russia has no desire to stabilize the situation but would rather see radicals come to power in Kiev, and do something clearly unacceptable. This would alienate the east entirely, and give Russia due justification to make stronger moves. Their unwillingness to engage in dialogue with the new government, their continuing claims about its questionable legality, the economic moves taken against Ukraine in recent days, in an already dire situation...

Then again there are other considerations, like someone mentioned, gas transit is one. And Ukraine objectively has no money. Unless the west is willing to consistently subsidize Ukraine (the way Russia has bee), things will get bad. And it's not exactly reasonable to expect Russia to subsidize the new government. Personally I think Russia doesn't want to split Ukraine. It wants to give the new government enough rope to hang itself, and discredit the idea that the West will help Ukraine. Then replace the pro-Western one with a truly pro-Russian one, and have them join the Customs Union, which would bail out Ukrainian manufacturing.

Here's a video of the march at Belbek.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b2y_s9jWO9s"]Watch as pro-Russian soldiers fire warning shots at Ukrainian Air Force troops - YouTube[/nomedia]

And another one.

http://ru.tsn.ua/video/video-novini...belbek-vstretili-avtomatnymi-ocheredyami.html

Ukrainian sources are saying that the unit at Belbek is under Ukrainian control, except for the landing strips and the guard room. This is directly contradicting earlier statements that the MiG-29 unit at Belbek crossed over to the Crimean side.

Here's a turn of events that was less then predictable. Some fairly hostile civilians confronted Russian troops who set up a block-post infront of a military base. Their main complaint seems to be that the presence of these troops makes them feel unsafe. Russian commentators seem convinced it's fake, but I don't think so. The uniform and equipment match up as far as I can tell. The confrontation was approached by a Ukrainian colonel who tries to get the Russian officer to admit that he's Russian military. After some clumsy evasion, the conversation continues.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDr60eCjNYg&feature=youtu.be

Meanwhile it appears one of the soldiers did admit he's Russian military, elsewhere.

http://newsru.com/world/04mar2014/spetsnaz.html

And the US has agreed to provide Ukraine with 1bln USD. In context, this isn't even enough to pay for current gas debts. Never mind the tens of billions in overall debts that Ukraine has.

http://newsru.com/world/04mar2014/onebillion.html

Meanwhile Russian troops are leaving some of the objects they seized. According to this source even the take-off and landing strip in Belbek is cleared. This might not be a contradiction. It might be the case that the Crimean Autonomy has "control" of the unit, under the condition (possibly negotiated with the unit) that they're not pushing for independence. Promises are easy to make especially when the situation is this murky.

http://newsru.com/world/04mar2014/troops.html

Most Russian troops at the Kerch crossing have left, though some still remain.

http://newsru.com/world/04mar2014/troops.html
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Full length copy of the short video, where the locals argue with the Russian officer.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_9ZeThB1zw"]ВійÑькове міÑтечко â„–24 в Євпаторії - YouTube[/nomedia]

The Russian officer claims that the Ukrainian officers and civilian personnel have no problems moving in and out of the base. The locals are complaining that they work on base, and won't get paid if they don't have access to their work place. The locals are also worried that their children are scared, and request that Russian troops patrol the local area, without weapons. The Russian officer states that at the other base entrance, Russian troops are manning the checkpoint together with the Ukrainians. The locals ask if the Ukrainian army units will be allowed to keep their weapons. The Russian officer replies, that all the weapons, vehicles, and equipment are still in Ukrainian hands, but the weapons are in sealed storage. Then the Ukrainian colonel shows up, tries to get the Russian to admit he's Russian military. The Russian officer gets angry, says that the Ukrainian officer is behaving provocatively, and says he refuses to talk to him. Then asks him to step aside so he can answer the questions of the locals.

A local woman then demands an explanation of what the soldiers are doing here, who is their enemy, and whom they are supposed to be protecting the locals from. The response is a well rehearsed mission statement about protecting the Ukrainian military unit from diversions and attacks by radicals, and from having the weapons looted. He lets slip that his command is in Sevastopol.

A man then voices his concern that he's heard that Ukrainian army units were being disarmed, and requests that the Russian troops be moved away from the Ukrainian base. He says that he's sure the locals will be willing to help with food, and access to drinking water. He also requests that the officer pass the message up to his command. The Russian officer, speaking for the camera, summarizes and says that he will pass up the message.

The local man then says that he would like to arrange a meeting between a small number of local leaders, including the Ukrainian colonel, and the Russian officers command. A meeting is set up for 7 o'clock.

The officer is then bombarded with personal questions about his opinions, where he went to school, and appeals are made that he must have the same teachers as the Ukrainian officers. The locals ask the officer to pass up that there are no "banderovtsi" (Ukrainian neo-Nazis) or radicals here. He says that he has already told his command as much, several times.

Some of the locals, veterans themselves, say that they are not well treated by Ukrainians, or by Russians. They say that they don't like seeing these troops with weapons, and say that people are calling them occupation troops, like the Germans during WWII.

The Ukrainian colonel wants to clear up the question of access for locals to the military base, and shows the camera the road block set up (in the form of a large spiky strip). The locals then demand clear answers about who their command is but don't get one.

The Ukrainian colonel says that the units command post is shut down, and has no electricity. The Russian officer says that the Ukrainians have control of it, and are maintaining a duty station there.

It ends with a relatively friendly understanding that there will be another meeting at 1900, with presence from the command of the Russian unit, and that the locals will have access to the base without interference from Russian troops.

And the Ukrainian frigate is back, and is flying an over-sized Ukrainian flag. It's not clear whether it did at one point fly the Russian Navy flag, or if this was a hoax.

bmpd - "

An arrest warrant has been issued for the Admiral Berezovsky, commander of the Ukrainian Navy, who pledged allegiance to Crimea.

http://newsru.com/world/05mar2014/admiral.html

Meanwhile Crimean authorities have refused to negotiate with the illegitimate government in Kiev.

http://newsru.com/world/05mar2014/avtonomia.html

Meanwhile Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reveal that the February agreement that Moscow helped broker for Yanukovich, was pushed on by the EU (France, Poland) and the US. Yanukovich carried out his side of the agreement, but the opposition didn't. The US and Europe continue to pressure Moscow to negotiate with the new Kiev government, but Moscow refuses to do so.

http://newsru.com/world/05mar2014/ukrrus.html
 
exercises location

Agree with Comrade Feanor - ICBM launches are a thing of the norm.. no rattling there.

For everyone... to clarify now that the exercises are over..and this can be discussed

1) majority of the exercises occurred in north west - St. Petersburg region NOT southern areas

2) mobilization included some very minor movements in south west however, most troops were moved NORTH and WEST -- primary area was a rapid deployment of forces to the Kamenka & Кирилловский полигон site and related sites for exercises - this is located near Vyborg / St. Petersburg -

3) additional units of the baltic and norther fleet were activated, norther fleet carried out Marine deployments

4) baltic included activation of marines, naval forces and naval aviation - Su24 maritime and recon units

5) airforce units near moscow were "aggressors" using a task force of 4 SU-27s with friend or foe disabled to test air defence units


Ка́менка — действующий военный полигон, Выборгского района Ленинградской области. & Кирилловский полигон


where is Kamenka take a look below.

https://www.google.com/maps/place/6...1157091,1966m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m2!3m1!1s0x0:0x0

Sabre rattling against Europe and Poland at best... even if you consider this sabre rattling (by European standards) from Crimea and Ukraine...

Cheers,
Plas
 
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wittmanace

Active Member
The real lessons so far for me:
Restraint from soldiers/armed forces on both sides impressive.

Journalism levels, all round, really poor and disappointing. The spin and nonsense on all sides has been immense. Frankly, attempts by the media on all sides to increase tensions and get an inflammatory or earth shattering headline have been appalling. Hugely irresponsible, I think.

Kudos to the military personnel on both sides for keeping calm and, it seems, rational and restrained.
 

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
I could be wrong but could the large number of so far disiplined, well behaved troops on the ground actually keep a lid on ethnic tensions and prevent extremist of any shade from escalating things for their own purposes?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I could be wrong but could the large number of so far disiplined, well behaved troops on the ground actually keep a lid on ethnic tensions and prevent extremist of any shade from escalating things for their own purposes?
Well that's the one of the two arguments in favor of Russian presence that actually hold water. Once Russian troops showed up the fighting between the Tatars and Russians stopped.

The other argument is that it prevents the central authorities from attempting a force-based solution in dealing with places like Crimea. (Which they already have tried.) The implied threat is very clear. Putin has the authority to use troops in Ukraine, but has not decided to do so (the official line). And Crimea as an example of what Russian intervention would look like, and just how powerless Kiev is to stop it.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update time.

A Ukrainian AVMF unit managed to take off and escape with a few aircraft. The news report is idiotic and claims they took off in Mi-24s and Ka-52s (.....). The video shows Mi-8s. They also supposedly took off in An-12s and An-26s. Details are unclear.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Ð¡Ð¸Ñ‚ÑƒÐ°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð² Крыму. Жжем дальше

Meanwhile the new Prime Minister of Ukraine, Yatsenyuk, said that wider autonomy for Crimea is possible. Remember the current referendum in Crimea scheduled for March 30th isn't about independence, it's about the status of Crimea in Ukraine. Kharkov, and Donetsk are demanding that similar referendums be held, with protests continuing.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ßöåíþê ñîãëàñåí ðàñøèðèòü ñòàòóñ àâòîíîìèè Êðûìà, âëàñòè êîòîðîãî â Êèåâå ñ÷èòàþò íåëåãèòèìíûìè

And Putin stated that the Customs Union countries should help Ukraine to overcome the current crisis.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Òàìîæåííûé ñîþç äîëæåí ïîìî÷ü Óêðàèíå âûéòè èç êðèçèñà, íî òàêæå ïîäóìàòü î çàùèòíûõ ìåðàõ - Ïóòèí

Meanwhile it's starting to look like the infamous "Maydan snipers" were used by the opposition, not by the Yanukovich government.

*

And some photos of the Russian Navy ships blocking the Ukrainians ones in Sevastopol.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1227065.html

Photos and video from Belbek airfield.

http://djoker-lj.livejournal.com/142692.html

The government of the Crimean Autonomy claims that a total of 15 military units have come under their control. They include all MVD and border guards units, 3 PVO (air-defense) and 2 airbases. They list 40 tanks, 90 IFVs, and 120 000 fire arms.

http://military-informant.com/index.php/army/4812-1.html

Kiev government admits that some military personnel may have crossed over, but insists that the majority are "a worthy example" to Ukrainian people, and that no units as a whole have switched sides.

http://military-informant.com/index.php/analytic/4808-1.html

Aksenov, head of Crimea, announced that Ukrainian military units in Crimea have two options: they can cross to the Crimean side and swear allegiance, or they can leave the peninsula. Well this explains the leaving of the Ukrainian naval aviation unit.

http://sokol-ff.livejournal.com/735603.html

Also, allegedly, a Russian soldier was captured by Ukrainian forces. The circumstances are unclear, and the source is questionable. But it's not impossible, in fact it's not even that unlikely. Lets wait and see.

http://sokol-ff.livejournal.com/735334.html

A commander of a Ukrainian missile btln in Crimea (unclear if coastal AShM or air-defense) gave a brief interview, where he explained that the units have no comms and aren't sure where to take orders from. They hesitate to cross to the Crimean side because they swore an oath and follow the law.

http://sokol-ff.livejournal.com/734683.html

And Ukraine has set up border checkpoints near Crimea. Essentially Crimea has effectively been separated from both sides now. The Crimean checkpoints are manned by Berkut and Crimean militias. This is reminiscent of the conflicts in the 90s (Georgia and Armenia-Azerbaijan come to mind, as does Transnestria).

http://sokol-ff.livejournal.com/734131.html
 
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Twain

Active Member
Feanor, gonna ask you to get out your crystal ball now. What's Russia's desired end state here? From what I am reading it's not at all clear what Purin wants to accomplish. Crimea is obviously in play but is it an independent Crimea? Annexation of Crimea? And what about eastern and southern Ukraine?
 

the concerned

Active Member
I've wondered if 1 of Putin's goals is to get greater autonomy for Crimea so he can get the naval base for free,plus I've read that Russia will not allow Ukraine to join Nato under any circumstance's but surely they have just made that inevitable with their actions in the last 10 days.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Feanor, gonna ask you to get out your crystal ball now. What's Russia's desired end state here? From what I am reading it's not at all clear what Purin wants to accomplish. Crimea is obviously in play but is it an independent Crimea? Annexation of Crimea? And what about eastern and southern Ukraine?
The end state is what concerns most here. I think the Crimea is a done deal, it will be Russian although maybe not in name. It is the fate of eastern and southern Ukraine that is now of concern. Hopefully Putin comes to realize this prize is not worth the cost.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Update time....

Meanwhile the new Prime Minister of Ukraine, Yatsenyuk, said that wider autonomy for Crimea is possible. Remember the current referendum in Crimea scheduled for March 30th isn't about independence, it's about the status of Crimea in Ukraine. ...]
Now rescheduled for March 16th, & to be a referendum on whether to leave Ukraine & apply for membership of the Russian Federation.

Someone's in a hurry.
 

MARKJUSTIN

New Member
Any thoughts on what's going to happen here, will the country peacefully split in two, or will there be another Balkans style civil war? What are the implications if Russia gets involved? It's looking fairly similar to what happened in Georgia right now, Russian military exercises near the border which escalated into a protection force for the local ethnic Russian community. IMO it would be fairy easy for Crimea to break away, the province is 70% Russian, most of whome are also Russian citizens and this area was Russian until 1954.

A friend of mine from Odessa said prior to 1991 he was happily Russian, after 1991 nobody asked me what I wanted and I'm now Ukranian by decree not by choice.
US, EU, Nato and their allies wish to split Ukraine as they paved the way to split Sudan, Korea after wwII Serbia, Czechoslovakia Germany and so on as we see in history. There aggression and imperialist policy never stops until unless some powerful nations to unite and teach them a lesson. US debt is rising over 17 trillion and they will try hard to get rid of all this debt by waging war. Ukraine has been a victim of US, EU and NATO expansion plans and to exploite Oil and gas reserves using FRACKING technology which makes generation a serious threat. They overturned democratically elected Govt with the help of rebels, extremists, Neo- Nazis and fascists just after Anti Fracking Movements happened in Ukraine and supported by Polland and other nations worldwide ! ! ! ! :)
 

2007yellow430

Active Member
Lots going on in the news. One City voted to join Russia today. This looks like a total mess, and it wouldn't take much to ignite this area into a war. Time will tell. Hopefully everyone stays calm.

Art
 

Bonza

Super Moderator
Staff member
US, EU, Nato and their allies wish to split Ukraine as they paved the way to split Sudan, Korea after wwII Serbia, Czechoslovakia Germany and so on as we see in history. There aggression and imperialist policy never stops until unless some powerful nations to unite and teach them a lesson. US debt is rising over 17 trillion and they will try hard to get rid of all this debt by waging war. Ukraine has been a victim of US, EU and NATO expansion plans and to exploite Oil and gas reserves using FRACKING technology which makes generation a serious threat. They overturned democratically elected Govt with the help of rebels, extremists, Neo- Nazis and fascists just after Anti Fracking Movements happened in Ukraine and supported by Polland and other nations worldwide ! ! ! ! :)
Yes, it's all a big conspiracy. Please go away now. These aren't the forums you're looking for.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
US, EU, Nato and their allies wish to split Ukraine as they paved the way to split Sudan, Korea after wwII Serbia, Czechoslovakia Germany and so on as we see in history. There aggression and imperialist policy never stops until unless some powerful nations to unite and teach them a lesson. US debt is rising over 17 trillion and they will try hard to get rid of all this debt by waging war. Ukraine has been a victim of US, EU and NATO expansion plans and to exploite Oil and gas reserves using FRACKING technology which makes generation a serious threat. They overturned democratically elected Govt with the help of rebels, extremists, Neo- Nazis and fascists just after Anti Fracking Movements happened in Ukraine and supported by Polland and other nations worldwide ! ! ! ! :)
Perhaps to should find another forum to vent on.
 

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
US, EU, Nato and their allies wish to split Ukraine as they paved the way to split Sudan, Korea after wwII Serbia, Czechoslovakia Germany and so on as we see in history. There aggression and imperialist policy never stops until unless some powerful nations to unite and teach them a lesson. US debt is rising over 17 trillion and they will try hard to get rid of all this debt by waging war. Ukraine has been a victim of US, EU and NATO expansion plans and to exploite Oil and gas reserves using FRACKING technology which makes generation a serious threat. They overturned democratically elected Govt with the help of rebels, extremists, Neo- Nazis and fascists just after Anti Fracking Movements happened in Ukraine and supported by Polland and other nations worldwide ! ! ! ! :)
I think I will have a head ache tablet and lie down now.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Feanor, gonna ask you to get out your crystal ball now. What's Russia's desired end state here? From what I am reading it's not at all clear what Purin wants to accomplish. Crimea is obviously in play but is it an independent Crimea? Annexation of Crimea? And what about eastern and southern Ukraine?
Honestly, I don't know any more. I didn't think they would move this way in Crimea. And the time frame is suspect (to put it mildly). Annexation of Crimea is starting to look likely.

Now rescheduled for March 16th, & to be a referendum on whether to leave Ukraine & apply for membership of the Russian Federation.

Someone's in a hurry.
Sevastopol city council announced that the city is joining Russia. And the Crimean Parliament declared that Crimea intends to become a subject of the Russian Federation. So... yeah. It' starting to look like Crimean annexation might indeed be the end goal. Not a smart move, in my opinion.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - ПреÑÑ-ÐºÐ¾Ð½Ñ„ÐµÑ€ÐµÐ½Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð²Ð¸Ñ†Ðµ-премьера Крыма по Ñудьбе полуоÑтрова
colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1459054.html

Meanwhile a decommissioned ASW destroyer (BPK Admiral Ochakov) was sunk in front of the Ukrainian naval base, blocking the exit.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Ð¡Ð¸Ñ‚ÑƒÐ°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð² Крыму. Возможно затплен ÑпиÑанный "Очаков"
bmpd -
 
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