Ukranian Crisis

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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Interestingly, Russian troll activity seems to be up, which is usually a leading indicator.
Troll activity aside, make no mistake, neither the rebels nor the Ukrainian government have any interest in peace. And the Russian government only has an interest in peace on the terms proscribed in Minsk-2. Which isn't going to happen.
 

shogun

New Member
I'm not sure if I can post yet my last three very quality, lengthy posts didn't go through so you may have to make due with this one...

First off thank you for the quality analysis, very hard to find regarding this conflict given it's nature.

My question for Feanor or anyone else, do you have anymore information regarding the 13th battalion of the 95th? they served with us in Iraq and deployed with KFOR.

My question is how can the brigade be involved in every major engagement over the last year, allegedly get annihilated multiple times and still have a combat effective unit? They also allegedly lost the HQ of the 8th Army Corps as well which seems rather preposterous given that the units of this corps are back in line. Are these cauldrons mostly propaganda? Realizing that anytime soviet equipment is involved the enemy just needs enough time for break downs to make for some excellent target practice. :sniper I wonder how heavy the KIAs in these "trapped" units really are or is it mostly equipment loss. It's one thing to have arty on the supply route and another to effectively trap units if several brigades in strength. Given the evidence that the 13th batallion of the 95th Airmobile served in other areas of the war after the cauldron and the videos of elements of the brigade returning home I am assuming there is quite a bit of exageration going on.

One other question regarding the Airmobile brigades, I saw a video of the 95th deploying and it included a tank and not just the armored cars and BTR-80s that this unit typically composes. Are they now deploying MBTs with the airmobile brigades?

Any info on their actions during this was would be great, particularly during the June to September time frame last year.

Thanks again for a great thread!
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
My question for Feanor or anyone else, do you have anymore information regarding the 13th battalion of the 95th? they served with us in Iraq and deployed with KFOR.
I will do my best to find something, I don't have anything on hand.

My question is how can the brigade be involved in every major engagement over the last year, allegedly get annihilated multiple times and still have a combat effective unit? They also allegedly lost the HQ of the 8th Army Corps as well which seems rather preposterous given that the units of this corps are back in line. Are these cauldrons mostly propaganda?
Well no. There have been 3 major cauldrons, the Ilovaysk, the Izvarino (which was actually a chain of smaller ones along the border) and the Debal'tsevo one. That having been said none of the units are deployed in their entirety to a single location. Most of the Bdes are stretched out along the front, with various btlns and even companies attached directly to various sector commands. Finally none of the cauldrons, led to a total annihilation of the troops in them. They took heavy casualties, lost most of their equipment, but ultimately got out. Also remember Ukraine has been mobilizing troops to go to the front on a regular basis in large numbers. And finally, many brigades are not even at the front in their entirety. The Ukrainian military should be over 200 000 strong, but they have maybe ~60 000 on the front. If that.

Realizing that anytime soviet equipment is involved the enemy just needs enough time for break downs to make for some excellent target practice. :sniper
It's not the Soviet equipment, it's the general state of disrepair. Given how the Ukrainian military has been operating, you could give them shiny new western gear and 5 years later it would mostly be inoperable. For example the batteries of most trucks were missing at the beginning of this conflict. Just missing. Most likely they were stolen and sold.

I wonder how heavy the KIAs in these "trapped" units really are or is it mostly equipment loss. It's one thing to have arty on the supply route and another to effectively trap units if several brigades in strength. Given the evidence that the 13th batallion of the 95th Airmobile served in other areas of the war after the cauldron and the videos of elements of the brigade returning home I am assuming there is quite a bit of exageration going on.
There is certainly a lot of exaggeration going on. There's also a lot of open lying going on, by both sides.

One other question regarding the Airmobile brigades, I saw a video of the 95th deploying and it included a tank and not just the armored cars and BTR-80s that this unit typically composes. Are they now deploying MBTs with the airmobile brigades?
They're deploying composite units. They might have a btln+ sized element of airborne, a tank btln from a mech unit, an arty btln attached from an arty bde, and a recon company attached from the marines. Often while the units go to a general area together they're none the less not under any unified local command, instead each element reporting separately to the sector command.

Any info on their actions during this was would be great, particularly during the June to September time frame last year.
Yes, the messiest time frame. Also the heaviest fighting. I'll do my best, but I can't make any promises.
 

shogun

New Member
Thanks so much and most certainly a request as this thread already has been enormously helpful with what appears to be accurate info.

In the following video posted to youtube in mid-august the MBT at 3:00 clearly has the insignia of the Airmobile to the right of the barrel. Perhaps an attached unit that's adopting the symbol or painted on by paratroopers?

youtube.com/watch?v=Qd4DWF9xS1o

The soldier in the car mentions Lysychansk (East of Kramatorskwhich would jive with casualties taken late July.

Was there a 4th battalion mobilized for the 95th as per the flag (best seen at 1:04) but that appears to be the CO of one of the 13th battalion.

ukrstream.tv/en/videos/soldiers_of_the_95th_separate_airborne_brigade_returned_from_donetsk_airport#.VVPJYWdMvmJ]Soldiers of the 95th separate airborne brigade returned from Donetsk Airport


At 10:36 alleged captured tank has something on it with airmobile symbol, perhaps an ammo container or some other equipment though, appears to be similar time frame weather wise, perhaps later in the summer.:
liveleak.com/view?i=714_1406826543]LiveLeak.com - Ukrainian 95th Separate Airmobile Brigade shows its Russian trophies

- Ukrainian 95th Separate Airmobile Brigade shows its Russian trophies
 
More reports of shelling (Shyrokyne, Horlivka, Pisky, Popansa, Stanitsa Luhanska & Donetsk), albeit sporadic in some cases.

UA making strong claims on the capture of these two GRU officers (3rd Inpdnt Spetsnaz Bgde), near Schastya - Two Russian soldiers captured near rebel-controlled Luhansk, says Ukraine - The Guardian

Noticed the Ukraine Govt seems to be making accusations against the RF, concerning the treatment of Crimean Tartars - maybe this is linked to the recent marking of the 71st anniversary.

Feanor - Just as a quick ask, if I may; Does the below look correct, at least on paper and ignoring manning-level & equipment discussions? I have included the new Bgde level formations that I believe are correct. Cheers

1st Arm. Bgde
14th Mech. Bgde (replaced de-flagged 51st Mech)*
17th Arm. Bgde
24th Mech. Bgde
25th Airborne Bgde
28th Mech. Bgde
30th Mech. Bgde
53rd Mot. Bgde*
54th Mot. Bgde*
57th Mot. Bgde*
58th Mot. Bgde*
59th Mot. Bgde*
72nd Mech. Bgde
79th Airmobile Bgde
80th Airmobile Bgde
81st Airborne Bgde*
93rd Mech. Bgde
95th Airmobile Bgde
128th Mtn. (Mech.) Bgde
1st Marine Bgde
36th Marine Bgde*
---
11th Artillery Bgde
19th Rocket Bgde
26th Artillery Bgde
40th Artillery Bgde*
43rd Artillery Bgde*
44th Artillery Bgde*
55th Artillery Bgde

* - I believe these are the new raised Bgde units, over the last 4-5months.

Note - I understand the 92nd Mech was also 'de-flagged' quite early in the conflict for various reasons and wasn't really a 'Mech' unit (even on paper).

EDIT; Interesting piece on the Ukraine debt issue vs. Holders - Ukraine's Weaponised Debt - FT
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
On the subject of the alleged Russian troopers, it's not clear at all. One of them seems to have posted a photo on his facebook that shows him, with a time and date, that contradicts claims of him being a prisoner in Ukraine. There's also no documentation or evidence, other then their own words. And how likely is it that Russian special forces start running their mouth about who they are, the second they are captured?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I thought OSCE had confirmed that they were Russian soldiers, SoF or otherwise.

Ghost Btln commander killed near Luhansk - Separatist commander Mozgovoy killed
It's a little bit unclear. The OSCE did concur with Ukraine, but Russian diplomats were denied access to the prisoners, despite them claiming their Russian citizenship. One of them is married and his wife went on camera in Russia, confirming that he was discharged from the military.

Ukraine then claimed that Russian diplomats have abandoned their citizens, and instead gave a Novaya Gazeta journalist access to the prisoners. Novaya Gazeta is a semi-scandalous opposition newspaper that doesn't always do a good job with their sources. They're representing a political opposition that has almost 0 support, and they often stoop quite low for a story.

It's a little bit messy. At this point, at least to me, it does appear that they're probably Russian military, but it's not completely clear. It doesn't sit well with me that one of them is allegedly an HQ guy who should have been nowhere near the front line, and that they're allegedly SpetzNaz but immediately identified themselves as Russian SpetzNaz upon capture.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
A large Russian troop column with Uragan MLRS crossed into Ukraine. It might be an arty btln. Not a good sign in my opinion. Either Russia is preparing a move, or Ukraine is preparing a move and Russia sees it coming.

ЖурналиÑÑ‚ Reuters Ñфотографировал огромную роÑÑийÑкую военную колону на границе Ñ Ð£ÐºÑ€Ð°Ð¸Ð½Ð¾Ð¹

Also guys, be advised, I don't have time right now to run the kind of updates I used to. I will try to post and comment on the big stuff, and if fighting starts up in earnest I will do my best to keep you guys up to date, but unfortunately work comes first.
 
A large Russian troop column with Uragan MLRS crossed into Ukraine. It might be an arty btln. Not a good sign in my opinion. Either Russia is preparing a move, or Ukraine is preparing a move and Russia sees it coming.

ЖурналиÑÑ‚ Reuters Ñфотографировал огромную роÑÑийÑкую военную колону на границе Ñ Ð£ÐºÑ€Ð°Ð¸Ð½Ð¾Ð¹

Also guys, be advised, I don't have time right now to run the kind of updates I used to. I will try to post and comment on the big stuff, and if fighting starts up in earnest I will do my best to keep you guys up to date, but unfortunately work comes first.
Cheers Feanor.

I think you could be right, with weather improving (unfortunately).

I would have thought the Ukraine army is purely 'defensive'. Focusing on foreign assistance training and consolidating from units losses and new units raised, through recent call-up rounds (I think we are on 4th wave of mobilisation)

Pushing back into LNR and DNR positions (post-Minsk II territorial agreement) would be quite the surprise, IMV. I think if this flares to any serious extent, it will be through separatist actions.

Appreciate all your updates again
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Someone was asking about Ukrainian tanks in airmobile units.

The 79th Airmobile Bde is getting a T-72 company.

A side note, T-72s have been sporadically sighted in Ukrainian units prior to this, but this is, to my knowledge, the first full unit of them. From here on they will likely become more common, especially as T-64s start to run out. At this point we can no longer safely attribute T-72s to the rebels or Russian forces.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - ÐÑÑ€Ð¾Ð¼Ð¾Ð±Ð¸Ð»ÑŒÐ½Ð°Ñ Ñ‚Ð°Ð½ÐºÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ñ Ñ€Ð¾Ñ‚Ð° на Т-72
 

alexkvaskov

New Member
Why do paratroopers need MBTs? Because they've been used as primarily land based infantry? Sure this applies to Ukraine with next to no airlift capacity but Russia actually flies their VDV into AOs. Not seeing the logic in Russia's case.
 

shogun

New Member
BTR's and BMP's are proving to woefully under armed and under armored.

from the videos I posted (I wasn't allowed to do links) the Airmobile forces of the 95th already had MBTs in July.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Why do paratroopers need MBTs? Because they've been used as primarily land based infantry? Sure this applies to Ukraine with next to no airlift capacity but Russia actually flies their VDV into AOs. Not seeing the logic in Russia's case.
It may be that the VDV, in Russia's case, is getting an upgraded Sprut-SD on the BMD-4M chassis, with a new FCS, and other goodies. And they may be calling it a "light tank" instead of a "self-propelled anti-tank gun".

As for Ukraine, yes you're right. It's simply a case where they do not need or want a true airborne force, can't field one due to lack of aircraft, and don't know how to use one (just look at the disastrous first assault of Slavyansk, where they used vertical insertions to try to seize objectives, only to be swept off of them by the defendants, and lost 2 helos destroyed 1 damaged).

BTR's and BMP's are proving to woefully under armed and under armored.
Well... simply put: they're old. Russian experience in the Chechen and Georgian wars shows that they have many problems, but can still be effective when used properly and with good support. In the case of Ukraine I'd consider the incompetency of the officers and men (some drivers were literally taught at the front how to drive their vehicles), as well as the poor state of the vehicles themselves. A stalled BMP is a much easier target then a moving one.

As for armament, the problem is the optics and FCS (or lack thereof). There is nothing under-powered about the 2A42 auto-cannon. Accuracy is another story.

from the videos I posted (I wasn't allowed to do links) the Airmobile forces of the 95th already had MBTs in July.
I'm sorry, my memory isn't the best, were they organic or attached? MBT companies and platoons have been attached to everything from airmobile units, to Ukrainian SpetzNaz units in the course of this conflict. This particular posting means the 79th airmobile will have an organic MBT company in the brigade TO.
 

shogun

New Member
It may be that the VDV, in Russia's case, is getting an upgraded Sprut-SD on the BMD-4M chassis, with a new FCS, and other goodies. And they may be calling it a "light tank" instead of a "self-propelled anti-tank gun".

As for Ukraine, yes you're right. It's simply a case where they do not need or want a true airborne force, can't field one due to lack of aircraft, and don't know how to use one (just look at the disastrous first assault of Slavyansk, where they used vertical insertions to try to seize objectives, only to be swept off of them by the defendants, and lost 2 helos destroyed 1 damaged).



Well... simply put: they're old. Russian experience in the Chechen and Georgian wars shows that they have many problems, but can still be effective when used properly and with good support. In the case of Ukraine I'd consider the incompetency of the officers and men (some drivers were literally taught at the front how to drive their vehicles), as well as the poor state of the vehicles themselves. A stalled BMP is a much easier target then a moving one.

As for armament, the problem is the optics and FCS (or lack thereof). There is nothing under-powered about the 2A42 auto-cannon. Accuracy is another story.



I'm sorry, my memory isn't the best, were they organic or attached? MBT companies and platoons have been attached to everything from airmobile units, to Ukrainian SpetzNaz units in the course of this conflict. This particular posting means the 79th airmobile will have an organic MBT company in the brigade TO.
Sorry didn't mean to sound so definitive with my post, it's a guess on my part. It did appear in a video that T-64's were organic to the airmobile unit as emblems were steno'd on the tanks. Perhaps this is a different custom but in the U.S. we would not attach an armor (or infantry company) and have them blaze their equipment with the attachee's unit insignia.

In the following video posted to youtube in mid-august the MBT at 3:00 clearly has the insignia of the Airmobile to the right of the barrel. Perhaps an attached unit that's adopting the symbol or painted on by paratroopers? I would find that strange but perhaps the case. The tank (Looks like a T-64) can also be seen later in the video passing the BTR on the road.

youtube.com/watch?v=Qd4DWF9xS1o'

add the w w w
 

shogun

New Member
Also if Ukraine's resources of trained infantry are very limited and the command structure poor organic armor in an infantry battalion rather than attaching to form a battalion battle group may make it more effective in the assault and penetration role.

It took Ukraine some time to figure out they were fighting a conventional war rather than a guerilla insurgency. Perhaps another weakness in their command and intellegince structures. I think you pointed out the use of BTRs to take a village versus tanks, that certainly would be another example.

Airmobile commanders also appear to be politically connected and perhaps are securing "their" troops better or more effective equipment for the job at hand (fighting Russian armor).
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Yeah, apparently every Ukrainian airmobile brigade is getting an MBT company. T-80BV are also coming out of storage. Given that they have limited quantities of T-72s, this decision makes sense. On the other hand 3 types of MBTs is problematic to put it mildly. Of course another major round of fighting, and they'll be pulling T-62s and 55s out of storage. Russia can funnel enough anti-tank gear to the rebels to burn through what's left of Ukraine's Soviet-era stockpile.

Andrei-bt - Украина возвращает в Ñтрой танк Т-80Б
 
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