Turkey - Geopolitical & Geostrategic.

[swerve]

I am not disagreeing on what he has done, I am asking a simple question, is the integrity of the vote in question or not? Was there ballot stuffing and were the voters threatened in any shape or form? If the integrity of the process is not compromised, then he is legitmately elected. I have not heard EU complaining that the vote was unfair. Have you?

Two different issues: free & fair. What you describe (ballot stuffing & voter intimidation) could make the vote not free, if they were widespread, as would banning of potentially successful opposition candidates or parties, or dishonest vote-counting.

Erdogan effectively barred one popular candidate from standing (Ekrem İmamoğlu, mayor of Istanbul) by bringing a spurious charge of "insulting election officials". He didn't need much more in the way of dirty tricks because of his control of broadcast media & his cowing of the press. He pretty much shut out the opposition from TV, etc. coverage. That meant the election was not fair.

So, it's likely that the final tally of votes is correct, & Erdogan got 52% in the second round. Opposition supporters weren't prevented from voting & their votes were counted. But that doesn't make it fair.

Free and fair elections: definition, 8 standards to meet

The Turkish election met 6 of 8 standards fully, AFAIK, but it was poor on nos. 2 & 3.

 

[Ananda]

Turkish election met 6 of 8 standards fully, AFAIK, but it was poor on nos. 2 & 3.

I can somewhat agree on #3 argument as Sultan Erdo uses questionable action to prevent Imamoglu running. As #2, well we are talking on mainstream media, but this days around people more and more got their information from non mainstream media. There's no credible report that Erdo prevent opposition to use their own media or channels. There's no hindering on opposition to use online sources and channels to convey their messages and gather supports.

There's big swing voters that come to ballots box and not use their votes as sign disillusioned with both candidates. This is shown they have enough information on both candidates.

So with all aspects the elections practically free. While controlling mainstream media this days also not enough to control flow of information. US Right always claims the Left control mainstream media. However that's doesn't means the Right wing can not convey their information effectively to consolidate their bases. Retrospect on that, it can also be said this Turkiye election relatively fair. Failing on #2 due to one candidates barred, is not making enough to be call highly unfair election.

Mainstream media control right now is simply not enough to control flow of information. Infact it can be backfire to whoever control the mainstream media.

 

[koxinga]

They describe their methodology and how they arrive at their conclusions. Of course you are free to disagree with their methodology. Or are you accusing them of "cheating" and not following their own methodology?

I disagree with the idea of the index. Don't get me wrong, I do believe in democracy principles and I see Erdogan for who he is. But I see this type of index and this sort of democracy advocacy / calling out(e.g mostly coming from Western nations) as divisive because there are different levels of development and circumstances. If they move to better versions of themselves, great. If not, you can't force it, nor nagging at them would help.

 

[Vivendi]

I can somewhat agree on #3 argument as Sultan Erdo uses questionable action to prevent Imamoglu running. As #2, well we are talking on mainstream media, but this days around people more and more got their information from non mainstream media. There's no credible report that Erdo prevent opposition to use their own media or channels. There's no hindering on opposition to use online sources and channels to convey their messages and gather supports.

There's big swing voters that come to ballots box and not use their votes as sign disillusioned with both candidates. This is shown they have enough information on both candidates.

So with all aspects the elections practically free. While controlling mainstream media this days also not enough to control flow of information. US Right always claims the Left control mainstream media. However that's doesn't means the Right wing can not convey their information effectively to consolidate their bases. Retrospect on that, it can also be said this Turkiye election relatively fair. Failing on #2 due to one candidates barred, is not making enough to be call highly unfair election.

Mainstream media control right now is simply not enough to control flow of information. Infact it can be backfire to whoever control the mainstream media.

I disagree. Erdogan is putting journalists and political opponents in jail, thereby silencing them. Also journalists not in jail are careful about what they say, because they don't want to be put in jail. Same goes for political opponents. Also, Erdogan is controlling social media directly, you may want to read these:

Silence Descends on Social Media in Turkey - Syndication BureauSilence Descends on Social Media in Turkey - Syndication Bureau
How Turkey’s Erdoğan uses social media to cling onto power – POLITICO

Also did you not notice the story I told you about, Erdogan's party using deep fakes to discredit political opponent?

 

[koxinga]

Free and fair elections: definition, 8 standards to meet

The Turkish election met 6 of 8 standards fully, AFAIK, but it was poor on nos. 2 & 3.

Thanks for this. It is interesting. By strict definitions, using such methods to strike out a potential contender would be indeed unfair but that would put a number of countries in that category (e.g digging dirt on their political opponents, suing them in the courts).

It does not invalid the vote though. The citizens of Turkiye can and could have transfer their support to Kilicdaroglus in order to oust Erdogan or spoilt their votes.

My original point is trying suggest a "functioning democracy can result in a different vote" is just a) hypothesis b) casting negative views that the average Turkish voter has been decieved into voting for Erdogan. They voted for him, and own their results.

 

[koxinga]

Also did you not notice the story I told you about, Erdogan's party using deep fakes to discredit political opponent?

I feel this is a grey area, if we expand the scope of freedom of expression.

If we are able to accept outright untruths during an election under that umbrella (e.g just look at the US election and some of the stuff from Tucker Carlson/Fox), why would another medium (e.g fabricated video) be condemned as unacceptable?

 

[Ananda]

did you not notice the story I told you about, Erdogan's party using deep fakes to discredit political opponent?

Irrelevant to the context of fairness of the election (even if this proven which even in Turkish forums still debatable). This is not first time slender tactics being used in even democratic elections in West. Again there's no hinderence for the opposition to convey their information to their base and supporters or even swing voters.

Erdo not like Xi's that silencing and control social media. Social Media Buzzers are being used in many government to distract and try to maintain flow of information in Social Media. However this tactics is being use by everyone. Including opposition.

Erdogan is putting journalists and political opponents in jail, thereby silencing them.

So?? Do you have prove it is massively being done? Few cases not going to make the main opponents being silence. In this case I believe more on Turkish online forums and media, then Western ones. Western ones is simply too bias on Erdo.

The opposition also able to fight back and beat Erdo sides on several elections. Sultan Erdo done despicable tactics, but so most politicians done it. We can see how Democrats and their media supporters try to silence and deflect Hunter Biden Ukrainian 'scandals' and try to deflect that as Trump tactics.

You may not like Erdo, and he is not a true democratic politicians. He's done questionable tactics against his opponent. However the main topics is weather the election is free and fair. The fact so far shown it is free election and reasonably fair ones.

 

[swerve]

The opposition also able to fight back and beat Erdo sides on several elections. Sultan Erdo done despicable tactics, but so most politicians done it. We can see how Democrats and their media supporters try to silence and deflect Hunter Biden Ukrainian 'scandals' and try to deflect that as Trump tactics.

Are you serious? Have you actually looked at the Hunter Biden stuff?

It's insane. There's nothing there that reflects badly on Joe Biden. There are legitimate questions about Hunter Biden's behaviour but (1) compared to Trump & his family Hunter looks squeaky-clean, & (2) it's not tied to Joe. The whole "scandal" is pretty much made up by Republicans to attack Joe Biden.

Ignoring it & refusing to discuss it are reasonable things to do. They're not in the least 'despicable'. They should be seen in the context of bizarre & completely evidence-free accusations by US right-wingers of a murderous child sex ring of Democrats operating out of the basement of a New York pizzeria - which doesn't have a basement. Those accusations are still circulating, though.

Treating seriously the garbage coming from the mouths of the American right about "scandals" they've made up is foolish. It gives them undeserved credibility.

 

[Ananda]

you serious? Have you actually looked at the Hunter Biden stuff?

That's not the point, the point's whoever control the mainstream media, doesn’t mean this days can control overall information. US mainstream media whatever the "reasons" is more pro to democrats and biden causes at that elections run. However doesn't means Republican and Trumps can't convey their massages to their constituents.

I put it as example to shown that even Erdo control mainstream media, doesn’t means his opponents cannot convey information to their bases. Thus also Erdo did not control all information flow (like the American mainstream media nowdays).

As for Hunter Biden Ukrainian cases, I don't want to discuss it as it is against rules of this forum. However personally I see both American Right and Left has same shares of garbages. Thus it is not foolish to weighted both possitions. I don't see much different between Trump and Biden afterall.

 

[John Fedup]

That's not the point, the point's whoever control the mainstream media, doesn’t mean this days can control overall information. US mainstream media whatever the "reasons" is more pro to democrats and biden causes at that elections run. However doesn't means Republican and Trumps can't convey their massages to their constituents.

I put it as example to shown that even Erdo control mainstream media, doesn’t means his opponents cannot convey information to their bases. Thus also Erdo did not control all information flow (like the American mainstream media nowdays).

As for Hunter Biden Ukrainian cases, I don't want to discuss it as it is against rules of this forum. However personally I see both American Right and Left has same shares of garbages. Thus it is not foolish to weighted both possitions. I don't see much different between Trump and Biden afterall.

Erdo’s ability to control the media and intimidate journalists and political rivals is significant. This is a huge advantage, period!! Did it make a difference in the outcome, I have no idea but it likely helped.

 

[swerve]

However personally I see both American Right and Left has same shares of garbages. Thus it is not foolish to weighted both possitions. I don't see much different between Trump and Biden afterall.

The American left doesn't invent tales of Republican politicians raping & murdering children en masse in a location which doesn't exist - & be believed by millions of Democrats. Something very weird has happened to American right-wing politics in recent years, & it worries me.

 

[Ananda]

Erdo’s ability to control the media and intimidate journalists and political rivals is significant. This is a huge advantage, period!!

Any incumbent will have advantage on state apparatus. This can be used to influence flow of information, even in liberal democracies. The longer you are in power the more so. However this days around, that's not enough as many is not getting their decisive information on mainstream media only.

Online forums, chats, and media are already becoming alternatives for those who wants to convey their information outside mainstream media. Looking to their traffics and how those represent basically roughly half pro Erdo and half anti Erdo, I can say the opposition of Erdo has good media outsides mainstream media to convey their massages. That's what Turkiye online media shown, and I see them more representative on what real conditions in the Turkiye ground then any Western media reports.

So yes, Erdo has huge advantages with mainstream media that basically control by his state apparatus. However not controlling information or hindering independence of pro anti/opposition online media, not really. For that I'll see that on how opposition still manage to effectively convey their massages and solidified their bases.

Their election losses more the fact they don't manage to gather enough solid alternatives routes to convince enough swing voters. The opposition supporters and swing voters knows well mainstream media control by Erdo Regime, thus mainstream media has little effect on them.

Something very weird has happened to American right-wing politics in recent years, & it worries me.

US Left and Right already severely divided decades ago, even on the time I was there for my Graduate Studies and few years work after. They're using negative tactics to each other, with sometimes questionable accuracies. The weird thing happens on both sides, it is just the right-wing more blatant on their tactics.

 

[ngatimozart]

The American left doesn't invent tales of Republican politicians raping & murdering children en masse in a location which doesn't exist - & be believed by millions of Democrats. Something very weird has happened to American right-wing politics in recent years, & it worries me.

One could argue that US elections are not free and fair. Various states have played around with the voter registration, eligibility rules, and making the voting process more difficult, disenfranchising some voters. The US doesn't have an independent electoral authority and I think that's a major deficiency. The US political system is basically a duopoly as well with both the Democrats and Republicans having the ability to squeeze out smaller parties, especially WRT Congress. They aren't the only ones, Years ago the Australian state of Queensland had a gerrymandered electoral system where rural votes had greater value than urban votes. A Kiwi export to Queensland, Joh Bjelke Petersen, ensured that the gerrymandering was fully utilised and improved.

In NZ we have had our own problems with the electoral system and in my life time first past the post was a problem because that ensured that only the two major parties, National & Labour won the Treasury benches and did ignore the wishes of the people very often. The closest person we had to a dictator was the National Party PM Piggy Muldoon, PM from 1975 - 1984. Muldoon ruined a 1972 - 75 Labour Govt Minister by unfounded accusations of homosexuality, which was illegal at the time. He used the police to undertake dawn raids in Polynesian households accusing them of being illegal migrants. He used the police and army to put down Maori protests about confiscation of and / or govt sales of Maori land. Bastion Point in Auckland was a classic case.

 

[Rob c]

One could argue that US elections are not free and fair. Various states have played around with the voter registration, eligibility rules, and making the voting process more difficult, disenfranchising some voters. The US doesn't have an independent electoral authority and I think that's a major deficiency. The US political system is basically a duopoly as well with both the Democrats and Republicans having the ability to squeeze out smaller parties, especially WRT Congress. They aren't the only ones, Years ago the Australian state of Queensland had a gerrymandered electoral system where rural votes had greater value than urban votes. A Kiwi export to Queensland, Joh Bjelke Petersen, ensured that the gerrymandering was fully utilised and improved.

In NZ we have had our own problems with the electoral system and in my life time first past the post was a problem because that ensured that only the two major parties, National & Labour won the Treasury benches and did ignore the wishes of the people very often. The closest person we had to a dictator was the National Party PM Piggy Muldoon, PM from 1975 - 1984. Muldoon ruined a 1972 - 75 Labour Govt Minister by unfounded accusations of homosexuality, which was illegal at the time. He used the police to undertake dawn raids in Polynesian households accusing them of being illegal migrants. He used the police and army to put down Maori protests about confiscation of and / or govt sales of Maori land. Bastion Point in Auckland was a classic case.

Things have somewhat improved since them days. Piggies only good point was that he could be quite amusing and entertaining to listen too.

 

[Vivendi]

I feel this is a grey area, if we expand the scope of freedom of expression.

If we are able to accept outright untruths during an election under that umbrella (e.g just look at the US election and some of the stuff from Tucker Carlson/Fox), why would another medium (e.g fabricated video) be condemned as unacceptable?

Who are "we" who accept outright untruths? I already pointed out that many people (including those making the economist Democracy Index) do not consider the US a full democracy at present.

Of course fabricating videos and presenting them as truth is unacceptable.

 

[koxinga]

Having some time to reflect between the posts, I realised what triggered me was your reaction to my initial comment Turkey's election being fair, by listing the various areas which they have fell short (e.g the jailing of journalists, media control etc)

For an Asian like myself, we see such replies (and the Index) as a very "Western response" and for some, condesending. The Index isn't wrong, and your points are absolutely factual. While it might be a stretch for me to speak on behalf of Asians, I suspect we operate on a different scale and I call that scale "good enough". At least for me, Turkiye's election was "good enough". The United States, for all its issues, is "good enough".

Using Thailand as an example, "good enough" means the recent election was conducted with reasonable transparency, and people got a chance to vote and this showed with Move Forward and Pheu Thai getting the majority of the vote, blocking the military led parties. By most western democracy standards, the military played the same games as Erdogan + using the monachy/lese-majesty to gain an unfair unadvantage. But I see the vote as ultimately successful. For me, "bad" is military coup and rule, like Myanmar. For us, even a flawed democracy is better than no democracy. For us, jailing journalists, dirty tricks, gerrymandering the electoral rules, appealing to extremist ideas are just part of the whole political landscape and isn't shocking.

Therefore, the idea of calling out another country's flaws and have institutions dedicated to this topic seems self-indulgent, when inflation, cost of living, rents, jobs are usually the more pressing topics in Asian countries. Before you say, all the more we should push for democracy, it is not a silver bullet for the short term economic development issues. Democracy is good, but it is a means to an end (e.g stability), which allows for consistent development policies. Of course, elimination of corruption and good goverance is a benefit of it.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Turkey F-16 sale not a done deal, even with Sweden’s NATO bid on track

At least two key U.S. lawmakers have not committed to greenlighting the Turkey F-16 sale, citing concerns beyond Sweden's NATO accession.

www.defensenews.com

The US refused to sell the F-35 to Turkey and kicked Turkey out of the program, because of the procurement of the S-400. But the US also still refuse to sell the F-16 standard jetfighter. Turkey is not a obedient doggy as the US wants, and Erdogan does often some weird things, but Turkey is still a NATO-member and "ally of the US".
Keep refusing to sell standard weapon systems will undoubtly push Turkey closer to US' rivals.

 

[John Fedup]

Turkey F-16 sale not a done deal, even with Sweden’s NATO bid on track

At least two key U.S. lawmakers have not committed to greenlighting the Turkey F-16 sale, citing concerns beyond Sweden's NATO accession.

www.defensenews.com

The US refused to sell the F-35 to Turkey and kicked Turkey out of the program, because of the procurement of the S-400. But the US also still refuse to sell the F-16 standard jetfighter. Turkey is not a obedient doggy as the US wants, and Erdogan does often some weird things, but Turkey is still a NATO-member and "ally of the US".
Keep refusing to sell standard weapon systems will undoubtly push Turkey closer to US' rivals.

Erdogan’s recent comments of late just reinforces the notion Turkey is not a reliable ally. The big question is post Erdogan. Will things improve? One can only hope.

 

[swerve]

Turkey F-16 sale not a done deal, even with Sweden’s NATO bid on track

At least two key U.S. lawmakers have not committed to greenlighting the Turkey F-16 sale, citing concerns beyond Sweden's NATO accession.

www.defensenews.com

The US refused to sell the F-35 to Turkey and kicked Turkey out of the program, because of the procurement of the S-400. But the US also still refuse to sell the F-16 standard jetfighter. Turkey is not a obedient doggy as the US wants, and Erdogan does often some weird things, but Turkey is still a NATO-member and "ally of the US".
Keep refusing to sell standard weapon systems will undoubtly push Turkey closer to US' rivals.

It's the latest updated version of the F-16, which is rather new under the skin, & upgrades of some of Turkey's fleet to about the same level.. But not up to the F-35.