Turkey - Geopolitical & Geostrategic.

Feanor

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If you want to look at the Greek Turkish problems how far do you want to go back?
Ionia. Bring back Ephesus. :)

In all seriousness I'm not sure we need to go back all that far. Knowing the history helps but isn't decisive on this particular issue. I suspect that given Erdogan's current adventures, its an open question just how many resources he can devote to another conflict zone. Turkey is now invested in Syria, Libya, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, and Greece is next?
 

ngatimozart

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  • #242
Ionia. Bring back Ephesus. :)

In all seriousness I'm not sure we need to go back all that far. Knowing the history helps but isn't decisive on this particular issue. I suspect that given Erdogan's current adventures, its an open question just how many resources he can devote to another conflict zone. Turkey is now invested in Syria, Libya, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, and Greece is next?
Before Erdoğan the Turks and the Greeks would have their little bits of argy bargy now and again, mostly slinging insults at each other, but now Erdoğan wants to recreate the Ottoman empire with himself as the first Sultan. Maybe he thinks he's the reincarnation of Suleiman the Great. Who knows? But I believe that he's blown any chances of EU membership and Germany has had a guts full of his shenanigans. I would not be surprised if the UK, along with some other EU nations support France because they have had enough of him. If he has the S400 go IOC then he may find Turkey on the outer with NATO and possibly asked to leave.
 

Big_Zucchini

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Turkey is volatile. I think NATO countries, primarily the US and UK, will keep this little conflict with Turkey on the back burner, and hope for a regime change.
I think we can all agree on the strategic importance of NATO having the ol' Kebab to rub on Russia's back door. G-rated of course.

I just don't know how the US ever trusted Turkey enough to keep a stockpile of nukes there.
But it seems the UK is just fine with Turkey's current policies considering BAE's participation in the TF-X program and the consideration of making Turkey a partner nation in the Tempest program.
 

ngatimozart

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Aren't they already at IOC? They recently did live fire training with them at Sinop... would that qualify?
Depends upon what kind of training and if the missile was integrated with a sensor system or not.
 

Big_Zucchini

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Test firing a high TRL system and making it IOC are two things with a time difference of often years.
For example, the David's Sling was supposed to enter service in early 2015, but was delayed due to infrastructure work issues.
Delivery was in early 2016, and only a year later was made operational with the IDF (IOC not FOC). High TRL was achieved in 2012.

Unless Turkey sent soldiers to Russia to train on the system approximately a year before system arrival to Turkey, it's reasonable to assume they're still training on the system.
 

Feanor

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Test firing a high TRL system and making it IOC are two things with a time difference of often years.
For example, the David's Sling was supposed to enter service in early 2015, but was delayed due to infrastructure work issues.
Delivery was in early 2016, and only a year later was made operational with the IDF (IOC not FOC). High TRL was achieved in 2012.

Unless Turkey sent soldiers to Russia to train on the system approximately a year before system arrival to Turkey, it's reasonable to assume they're still training on the system.
I believe they did send personnel to train in Russia, but for how long I can't say. Based on the presence of two different types of TEL vehicles I'm fairly certain this was taken in Russia at a training facility.

EDIT I meant to include this. https://ic.pics.livejournal.com/bmpd/38024980/8436373/8436373_original.jpg
 
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Beholder

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Well that's all originated from Greece and Turkey conflicts. All back to the end of Otoman divisions.
I disagree with such method of accessing current affairs as going back and accounting for all history etc.
It doesn't actually work that way. History always background.

As for Turkey Involvement in Libya, or Med EEZ, if anyone Euro nation outside Greece should be has more complaint with Turkey is Italian. They're the one that have historical ties with Libya, not French. Still Italian is not the one that send fleets to backing up Greece in Med.
Same thing here, Italy have more history in Lybia, but France was one that pushed Nato to interfere, so currently they are more politically invested.
Italy also have more trade with Turkey, then France. Italy does not condemn Turkey on Lybia(but along with other EU powers condemn Syria), France does.
If you talk about Med EEZ issues, then yes Italy certainly see it as bad(about Cyprus, not about Lybia), it comes from Italy being Med power.

We certainly go into politic more then forum rules suggest, so unless we return to military matters, it will be my last post about issue.
 

ngatimozart

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I disagree with such method of accessing current affairs as going back and accounting for all history etc.
It doesn't actually work that way. History always background.
History informs the present and explains some of the phenomena that occur today. Why do you think that history is taught in military colleges and is a compulsory part of higher military education? It's because it teaches lessons and helps explains causual factors in events that are occurring today. You ignore it at your peril. If you cannot grasp that concept then you fail in the basics of military strategy and geopolitical strategy.

The Sun Tsu Ping Fa is about 2,000 years old and is required reading in all military colleges. Thucydides History of the Peloponnesian War is still read today in military colleges and he wrote that circa 2,500 years ago. Look up the Thucydides Trap because that is just as applicable and dangerous today as was about 2,500 years ago when Sparta was the declining power and Athens the rising power.
Same thing here, Italy have more history in Lybia, but France was one that pushed Nato to interfere, so currently they are more politically invested.
Italy also have more trade with Turkey, then France. Italy does not condemn Turkey on Lybia(but along with other EU powers condemn Syria), France does.
If you talk about Med EEZ issues, then yes Italy certainly see it as bad(about Cyprus, not about Lybia), it comes from Italy being Med power.

We certainly go into politic more then forum rules suggest, so unless we return to military matters, it will be my last post about issue.
This discussion isn't breaking forum rules because it has a direct impact upon military affairs.
 

Beholder

Active Member
History informs the present and explains some of the phenomena that occur today. Why do you think that history is taught in military colleges and is a compulsory part of higher military education?
History taught in military colleges as illustrations to actual applications of military principles they teach. No more, no less.
But it is different for politics.

It's because it teaches lessons and helps explains causual factors in events that are occurring today. You ignore it at your peril. If you cannot grasp that concept then you fail in the basics of military strategy and geopolitical strategy.
There is difference with what i'm saying.
History is background. Human are not programs they are sometimes illogical, affected by multitude of considerations and most importantly creative. It is something history teach us too.
So times matter, generations matters.
Without knowing background one can't judge scene, but with only background one will also fail, because one is blinded by past and don't account for changes.

The Sun Tsu Ping Fa is about 2,000 years old and is required reading in all military colleges. Thucydides History of the Peloponnesian War is still read today in military colleges and he wrote that circa 2,500 years ago. Look up the Thucydides Trap because that is just as applicable and dangerous today as was about 2,500 years ago when Sparta was the declining power and Athens the rising power.

This discussion isn't breaking forum rules because it has a direct impact upon military affairs.
Sun Tsu Ping Fa is collections of military principles, not history. One of the reasons in military colleges teach historical applications and not only principles themselves is that there will be time when principles themselves not applicable.
For example liberal democratic country will not limit rise of another liberal democratic country by military means. Or resolve simple disputes escalating beyond diplomacy.
And this change was completed when? Around ~1948 i guess it strengthened, after Universal Declarations of Human Rights.
Before this was questionable because firstly you can't define liberal democracy correctly and secondly you can convince general population to approve war easier.

Now let's look at one issue, "humanitarian war". That means war where you have no actual stake in, but still enter because you want to prevent genocide for example. Is it justified, who could give legitimacy(lets say UNSC) to such war and if it should be condemned if legitimacy can't be obtained(for example party that do genocide gained VETO by itself or other parties)?
What if it is misused?
And it's something going on now, no amount of historical knowledge will allow to judge probability of military interference on humanitarian ground. You need to look at how ppl view issue and wars in general, who is the current leader, how easy it is to interfere from military and diplomatic standpoints etc.
And it has direct effect on military matters.

Just one example. Simply put world changes faster, information and ideas spread faster, military preparations go faster, escalation go faster...
I also love using history to illustrate, or explain my points, but it can only take you so far. IMO
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
History is not determine everything. However disagreement that lead to more hostile encounter, has more probabilities to happen if they already exists of historical 'beef'/bad feeling or distrust. Thus historical is still matters.

Modern conflicts can be trace majority of them to historical conflicts between parties. The more historical conflicts happen before between them, the more likely any confrontation can fall down the line to more serious conflicts.

Greece and Turkish conflicts are very related to their historical. Med EEZ conflicts between them can also track down to feeling of inequalities by one party or another due to result of divisions of Otoman territory.
French also has more historical encounter with Turkey and also historical support to Greece, is more the factor in here, compare to Economics trade.

You can't negate the historical trend. Most of modern conflicts is related to historical trend. Yes they're modern/current conflicts that are not related to that. However most of that, effect by historical relationship.
Again the more bad feeling that already happened due to historical conflicts, will result with less trust, and tendecies to blown out faster. It's just part of human nature.
 

ngatimozart

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An article suggesting that Turkey is a phoenix rising. It is published by the Australian Institute of International Affairs and suggests that Turkey's leaders at the moment see themselves as forming a pseudo Ottoman sphere of influence. But the author suggests that Turkey is sailing on a knife edge with Russia and Europe.

 

Ananda

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Nice article, and bluntly told two thing what Turkey face (no matter who's Turkey leader) with the West.

1. EU main problem for accepting Turkey membership is religion, as the article wrote 'the actual basis for the rejection is on religious grounds'.
2. Turkey has no natural allies in America capable of silencing the human rights and Armenian lobbies.

Seems this's that make Erdogan try to balance more of Turkey traditional more Western thinking under Ataturk influence, toward more balancing with Eastern and Russian approach. He seems think that no matter what they do, the West will not accept Turkey as similar with Eastern European. This's must be created anti Western feeling down in some Turkish segment, as they're already in line for EU integration longer than East European.

It's also shown that the most EU members that have problematic view with Turkey (off course Outside Greece and Cyprus), are Poland, Hungary, Austria and French. Coincidence that those four also EU members that have most historical conflicts with Otoman.

I think the article shown that Turkey Integration to Europe will not be happening. Historical distrust still take precedence, and Turkey it self seems already move on from EU integration. Turkey will take their own role on balancing Europe interest, Russian Interest, Middle East Interest, and their own Turkic interest in Caucascus.

Just as the article put, will be disasters for Turkey if it's failed, but doing right will increase Turkey importance strategically and economically.

The problem now, Erdogan felling more 'Sultany"..seems he's taking his role not from Ataturk but more to Mehmet the Conqueror.
 
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Big_Zucchini

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The Sultan who unilaterally cut ties with Israel, is now seeking to improve ties. How does he explain to his people that on one hand he's against the alleged "treatment of the Palestinians", and simultaneously improve ties without giving any solid reason related to either security or economy?


Turkey has been flexing its muscles all over the region and even built itself a very impressive arms industry. But it's overstretched, over-committed, and out of money.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Turkey has been flexing its muscles all over the region and even built itself a very impressive arms industry. But it's overstretched, over-committed, and out of money
The last one is more pressing for His Excellence Erdo. Despite what Turkish media talk and Forums say, Turkish Economy already in problem even before COVID situation.

Few years back in other Forum, I have long debate with Turkish forumers on how Turkey going to afford their TFX program. Simply say that even larger Economy like ROK try to find Partners on KFX in order to achieve Economics of Scale. Despite their bravado on how Turkey will able to go alone on TFX and other ambitious Defense program, they can't provide simple calculation with Turkey projected budget on how they're going to afford TFX and all Erdo ambitious Defense projects.

Erdo can afford if he has to on Political dispute with EU, but not also altogether with US. Trump supposedly his best bet with US, however even then he challenge Trump on S-400 fiasco. Now he's facing Biden in which his Democrats allies are more sympathetic with Armenian cause compared to Republics.

Simply say Erdo overreach Turkish geopolitical importance, and tested too much Washington. Turkey Defense Industry actually depend with US Industrial Complex for vendors partnership and technological support. Erdo Nationalist thinking simply blind him so far.
 

Big_Zucchini

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The last one is more pressing for His Excellence Erdo. Despite what Turkish media talk and Forums say, Turkish Economy already in problem even before COVID situation.

Few years back in other Forum, I have long debate with Turkish forumers on how Turkey going to afford their TFX program. Simply say that even larger Economy like ROK try to find Partners on KFX in order to achieve Economics of Scale. Despite their bravado on how Turkey will able to go alone on TFX and other ambitious Defense program, they can't provide simple calculation with Turkey projected budget on how they're going to afford TFX and all Erdo ambitious Defense projects.

Erdo can afford if he has to on Political dispute with EU, but not also altogether with US. Trump supposedly his best bet with US, however even then he challenge Trump on S-400 fiasco. Now he's facing Biden in which his Democrats allies are more sympathetic with Armenian cause compared to Republics.

Simply say Erdo overreach Turkish geopolitical importance, and tested too much Washington. Turkey Defense Industry actually depend with US Industrial Complex for vendors partnership and technological support. Erdo Nationalist thinking simply blind him so far.
Specifically on TFX, I believe Turkey will try to buy the British Tempest, give it a slight modification, and call it the TFX.
But I honestly don't understand why the UK is being so friendly with Turkey, even at the risk of degrading relations with the US.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Historically UK and German are always Euro power that are more friendly with Turkey. Even after WW1 UK also let Turkey take back all territory that has been occupied by Greece after WW1. French, Austria, and Hungary all Balkan states including off course Greece, are the best ones that more or less hostile to Turkey. This's shown on whose Euro nation that always block Turkey Integration to EU. Austria, Hungary, Rumania, Greece, Bulgaria and all Balkans (except Bosnia and Albania) seems still have beef with Turkey due to historical grudge with Otoman.

Sometimes Historical grudge seems's harder to let go by Euro nation. Compared to many Asian nation's that have tendencies to let by gone be by gone. Off course religion is matter, just like the article that Ngati put before.

US is usually bit protective to Turkey, toward some anti-Turk Euro Nation's push above. Thus I don't understand on Erdogan antics that cause concern with Washington, Berlin and London. Turkey should now those three are the bed rock on their relationship with Western Alliance.

My guess is now those three just watch what Erdo antics will be, after Trump.
 
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swerve

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"Sometimes Historical grudge seems's harder to let go by Euro nation. Compared to many Asian nation's that have tendencies to let by gone be by gone. "
You mean like Korea & China, & their constant addition of new complaints about what Japan did in the past, going back on previous agreements, etc.?

And what about India & Pakistan? China & India? China almost everywhere, for that matter, claiming that it's been unjustly deprived of former territories & has the right to reclaim them.

BTW, both France & Italy also occupied parts of Turkey after WW1, as well as Greece & the UK. The French & Italians withdrew before the mad Greek attempt to conquer much of Anatolia.
 

Ananda

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Yes, China, Japan and India bickering to each other, however Investment and Trade to each other also increase. My point on by gone be by gone more on commercial activities, especially trade and Investment to each other. It's not just in East Asia but also in South East Asia.

Can we see that kind of trade happening with those Euro and Turkey? The way I see Turkey trade numbers with EU are consistent toward German and UK. The way the trade between them, is more (if we see Asian commonality) like within South Asian. There you can see historical grudge affecting trade, especially between India and Pakistan.

Point is, while the Asian still looking waried to each other, the inter Asian trade and Investment especially within East and South East Asia is also growing. Trade and Investment do matter to reduce tensions. While some Euro Nation's continue their push to side line Turkey trade integration with EU. That's recipe for increase tensions down the line.
 

swerve

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In 2018 over 50% of Turkey's exports went to the EU (then including the UK). Seven of the biggest destinations for Turkish exports were EU members; Germany (9.6%), UK (6.6), Italy (5.7), Spain (4.6), France (4.3), Netherlands, Belgium. Iraq was 4th (5.0), USA 5th (4.9), & Israel 10th (2.3). Romania 11th (ahead of Russia), Poland 12th, Bulgaria about the same as China . .

Take away EU trade & tourism & the Turkish economy immediately collapses.
 
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