Turkey - Geopolitical & Geostrategic.

Feanor

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Armenian Ministry of Defense shared some images, claiming that the Bayraktar TB2 type Armed Unmanned Aerial Vehicle belonging to the Azerbaijani Armed Forces was shot down.

In principle large but slow UAVs are relatively simple targets for modern air defense systems. They're typically not as well equipped with countermeasures as a manned jet and are large enough and fly high enough to relatively easy to spot while being relatively slow (and therefore enlarging the no escape zone for SAMs). So this doesn't come as a surprise. I suspect that Azerbaijan figured they had degraded Armenian air defense sufficiently to allow operations of such systems with some degree of impunity. It remains to be seen whether Azerbaijan continues using the systems, and whether any more are downed. It is always possible that this downing was a lucky/creative one-off.
 

ngatimozart

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An interesting article on how Erdogan has been out Putining Putin. He's been following Putin's playbook and by all appearances being better at it, or so this article claims. Turkey's Erdogan has been humiliating Putin all year — here's how he did it On another front it appears that the Turks are pulling back from regime enclaves in Idlib and their surrounded checkpoints positions etc. Turkey’s withdrawal in Idlib may be omen of war It appears that they are withdrawing to a newly established strongpoint in southern Idlib that has armour and artillery entrenched.
 

Feanor

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An interesting article on how Erdogan has been out Putining Putin. He's been following Putin's playbook and by all appearances being better at it, or so this article claims. Turkey's Erdogan has been humiliating Putin all year — here's how he did it On another front it appears that the Turks are pulling back from regime enclaves in Idlib and their surrounded checkpoints positions etc. Turkey’s withdrawal in Idlib may be omen of war It appears that they are withdrawing to a newly established strongpoint in southern Idlib that has armour and artillery entrenched.
It looks like Russia is starting to treat different areas where their interests with Turkey clash as one continuous set of relations. After the failure of Russian diplomacy between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Russia promptly bombed oil storage in the Turkish sector of Syria with (presumably) cruise missiles. It makes me wonder, given the success of Turkish UAVs in recent conflicts, does this indeed raise the likelihood of a major semi-proxy war? I doubt a full war is forthcoming, with Russo-Turkish projects in the energy sphere (nuclear, and gas).

 

SolarWind

Active Member
It looks like Russia is starting to treat different areas where their interests with Turkey clash as one continuous set of relations. After the failure of Russian diplomacy between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Russia promptly bombed oil storage in the Turkish sector of Syria with (presumably) cruise missiles. It makes me wonder, given the success of Turkish UAVs in recent conflicts, does this indeed raise the likelihood of a major semi-proxy war? I doubt a full war is forthcoming, with Russo-Turkish projects in the energy sphere (nuclear, and gas).

I believe this is a signal to Erdogan personally more so than to Turkey in general, that Russia is annoyed with Turkish activity in the NK.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
An interesting article on how Erdogan has been out Putining Putin. He's been following Putin's playbook and by all appearances being better at it, or so this article claims. Turkey's Erdogan has been humiliating Putin all year — here's how he did it On another front it appears that the Turks are pulling back from regime enclaves in Idlib and their surrounded checkpoints positions etc. Turkey’s withdrawal in Idlib may be omen of war It appears that they are withdrawing to a newly established strongpoint in southern Idlib that has armour and artillery entrenched.
The author makes a good point that I didn't consider yet - Turkey's ambitions are directed in part against Russia.
But that's merely a consolation for the clash of interests between Turkey and its former western allies.

It's also an interesting approach, to see Turkey going about with its ambitions without a major ally. Perhaps Erdogan is trying to get global powers to court him after he shows some strength.
But his strength was only demonstrated against countries that were already in shambles.
 

Beholder

Active Member
It's also an interesting approach, to see Turkey going about with its ambitions without a major ally. Perhaps Erdogan is trying to get global powers to court him after he shows some strength.
But his strength was only demonstrated against countries that were already in shambles.
Why does he need major ally?
His first strategic goal is regional superpower. And our region(ME+CA) is very important, plus pan-Turkism ideology allow him to court countries in Central Asia. In case China-US relations hit rock-bottom he can play both due to political geography of China's road and belt.
The moment Turkey get nukes and succeed pushing it's political vision to CA countries and get more control over Med, then he can try global stage and join some camp, or play on differences.
Naturally it has put him on collision course with Russia.
There is very small chance it will succeed, but at least it have great internal hype(make Turkey new Porta etc.).:)

Western alliance not worth much for Erdo and can actually be liability, when courting CA states, or spreading MB ideology.

And Erdo can play muslim card better as well, if regional superpower part succeed, as you have both sunni and shia turks, he himself is Muslim Brotherhood figure and ideology of this organization calling for unification of muslim state against imperialism.

So the end result he want to see is Turkey leadership as both turk and islamic power as Porta have been historically.
 

SolarWind

Active Member
Apparently, Canada has suspended supplying Turkey with the Rotax aircraft engines used in Bayraktar TB2 UAVs, over their use in the Nagorno-Karabah war.
In other news, France has recalled its ambassador to Turkey for consultations.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Apparently, Canada has suspended supplying Turkey with the Rotax aircraft engines used in Bayraktar TB2 UAVs, over their use in the Nagorno-Karabah war.
In other news, France has recalled its ambassador to Turkey for consultations.
Rotax is owned by Canada’s Bombardier but production is in Austria I believe. Not sure how bans work but I guess Bombardier doesn’t want to risk losing any corporate welfare from junior.
 

SolarWind

Active Member
Rotax is owned by Canada’s Bombardier but production is in Austria I believe. Not sure how bans work but I guess Bombardier doesn’t want to risk losing any corporate welfare from junior.
More on this here:
Apparently, "Canada suspended most exports of defence technology to Turkey in October of 2019 following the Turkish invasion of northwestern Syria." But Bombardier just now suspended delivery of the Rotax aircraft engines, which are made in Austria "exclusively for civilian purposes and are certified for civilian use only", to "countries with unclear usage", after Armenia presented evidence that the technology is used in the Nagorno-Karabakh war in the Bayraktar TB2 drones.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group

This is coming from Turkish dailysabah, which basically shown many strong Turkish Nationalistics articles. Thus take that as grain of salt. However it shows how Turkey know and realized that they need to build their own Avionics engines capabilities.

Their efforts to export T-129 to Pakistan and Philippines faces hurdles on engine license from US. They also know that their efforts to gain market shares on increasingly larger UAV global market also depends on their abilities on providing alternative engines.
Rotax engine is not really cutting edge technology in aircraft engines compared to Turbofan for instance. Turkey can source that from China, Ukraine or even clone themselves.
In my opinion this action by Bombardier due to Canadian Politics pressure is just bit late.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

Put this couple months old article, to get some perspective on how Turkey and NATO and EU relationship will be.
There's no denial that any Turkey's bad feeling with Euro zone has roots in their relationship with Greece. Most of Turkish domestics constituencies already convince that they should forgot any Turkish possibility entering EU, since Greece will always become the hurdles.
No matter who control Turkey, even one day Erdogan's opposition (mostly belong to Ataturk based secular parties) regain Turkey political helm, seems they're believe Greece will still put hurdle for their EU membership.

However on NATO is another thing, there's seems still strong domestic support for Turkey's membership in NATO domestically.
How about the rest of NATO (except Greece) on Turkey? Seems the article above argue that NATO still see Turkey membership is essential for their South east flank. Any complaint and blame toward Greece and Turkey conflicts seems being directed not to Turkey alone but both Turkey and Greece.

Except France. At first I'm bit perplexed on why French negative attitude toward Turkey. There're no big Turkish diaspora in French, most of Muslim Imigrants (citizen, legal resident or illegal ones) in French coming from their ex colonies (mostly Algerian). So there's no domestic Political push from Right Wings for Turkish diaspora. If domestic political factor taking place, it should be from German that has largest Turkish diaspora in Europe. Still overall Turkey relationship with German can be considered better than Turkey with the rest of EU.

However looking at 20th century relationship between Turkey and France, seems the culprit back to Greece again. French seems have 'relatively' strong 'culturally' disdain with Turkey and Ottoman roots compare to other Western Euro members. They have fought war after WW1 when French support Greece forces in Anatolia and Turkey Euro parts.

Turkey military also seems practically not sourcing any of their assets from French, while Greece is one of French military assets customer.
For that, in my opinion any Erdogan belligerent toward Greece and now French is actually nothing new. Turkey and Greece will always have their spats from time to time, and French will always support Greece and this put themselves facing against Turkey.

Still as article above point out, NATO will still take Greece and Turkey condition as part of their "risk" for the sake of their South East flank.


This article also talk on how French for sometime already doing 'adversarial' diplomatic move toward Turkey. More than other EU's except Greece. This in my opinion shown there're more on French political psyche based toward Turkey. Similar thing also happen with Turkey political psyche based toward French.
 
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Feanor

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Apparently Greece is getting the F-35, including 6 aircraft originally meant for Turkey. The symbolism is thick here. I'm also wondering whether the US will refund the money Turkey has already paid into the program. I suspect not.

 

Beholder

Active Member

Put this couple months old article, to get some perspective on how Turkey and NATO and EU relationship will be.
There's no denial that any Turkey's bad feeling with Euro zone has roots in their relationship with Greece. Most of Turkish domestics constituencies already convince that they should forgot any Turkish possibility entering EU, since Greece will always become the hurdles.
No matter who control Turkey, even one day Erdogan's opposition (mostly belong to Ataturk based secular parties) regain Turkey political helm, seems they're believe Greece will still put hurdle for their EU membership.

However on NATO is another thing, there's seems still strong domestic support for Turkey's membership in NATO domestically.
How about the rest of NATO (except Greece) on Turkey? Seems the article above argue that NATO still see Turkey membership is essential for their South east flank. Any complaint and blame toward Greece and Turkey conflicts seems being directed not to Turkey alone but both Turkey and Greece.
It's not Greece and Turkey conflicts that is problematic, it's tensions about various Med EEZ(including Turkey involvement in Libya, France here most concerned).
Erdo is another problem in itself for them(because of his diplomatic "talent" and rhetoric, you can include here human rights record of Turkey in general).
Also if Turkey continue to make controversial things that negatively influence US opinion, then you can expect UK to follow suite. IMO

Other then EU actual membership(there is problem with this not only from Greece), there is a lot of economic ties(and it possible to grow them even more after Brexit), so i don't see EU oppose Turkey, unless forced(France included IMO).
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Apparently Greece is getting the F-35, including 6 aircraft originally meant for Turkey. The symbolism is thick here. I'm also wondering whether the US will refund the money Turkey has already paid into the program. I suspect not.

No official word as far as I can see. Rumours reported in Greek media, foreign news outlets picking up those reports.

Could be true, though.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Not a fan of Erdogan so selling Greece F-35s works for me (hard to believe they have the money). With the upcoming US election, some of these F-35 exports may be in doubt however.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
not Greece and Turkey conflicts that is problematic, it's tensions about various Med EEZ(including Turkey involvement in Libya, France here most concerned).
Well that's all originated from Greece and Turkey conflicts. All back to the end of Otoman divisions. As for Turkey Involvement in Libya, or Med EEZ, if anyone Euro nation outside Greece should be has more complaint with Turkey is Italian. They're the one that have historical ties with Libya, not French. Still Italian is not the one that send fleets to backing up Greece in Med.

French backing up Greece military is simply due to their historical 'beef' with Turkey. They have shown their support for Greece against Turkey since the beginning of 20th century. Any conflicts between Greece and Turkey incuding Cyprus is bound to bring French backing Greece.
Thus it's not due to Erdogan only. French will back up Greece no matter whose in control of Turkey.

Granted Erdogan has create more tensions to Turkish Western allies that usually backing more Turkey like US and German. However my point in previous posts that what happen between Erdogan with Greece and now French is not something new. From all Euro both Greece and French has historical 'beef' with Turkey. Greece off course more than anyone else, however for some reason French also has historical 'beef' with Turkey.

That's why I say that somehow within both French and Turkey political psyche, they're not trusting each other. It's just Erdogan bring it up now to another level. However basically so far Turkish conflicts with both Greece and now French is not entirely something new due to Erdogan or Macron only.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
With the upcoming US election, some of these F-35 exports may be in doubt however.
If US want to push Turkey behaving more in line with US strategy, then giving F-35 to Greece is can be one of the alternative. However just like you say, I do have doubt any US administration whether Trump or potential Bidden will want to subsidise Greece for F-35.

Actually even somehow Erdogan change his position and back with US strategy, I do doubt considering their current Economics to be able affording all their previous order of F-35.
 

ngatimozart

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If you want to look at the Greek Turkish problems how far do you want to go back? I think Greek independence from the Ottoman empire in the 19th Century would be probably the most recent point to start with the Turks still harbouring a grudge over that, and the Greeks still harbouring ill will over the way the Ottomans and subsequently the Turks treated ethnic Greeks still within the Ottoman empire and subsequent modern day Turkey. The Turkish 1974 invasion of Cyprus didn't help either. Unfortunately both are proud stubborn people with long histories and the Greeks have been in the region for 3 millennia fighting amongst themselves, the Persians and anyone else who happened along.

It was a Greek, Alexander of Macedonia who put the sword to the Persian empire and then went walkabout to Egypt and from there to India before returning to Persia dying there. Later it was the Turkic tribes who came out of the east conquering territories with some settling in what is modern day Turkey and founding the Ottoman empire, finding remnants in Western Turkey of Greeks who descended from ancient Greeks who lived there in the times of Xerxes, Cyrus the Great Aristotle, Herodotus, Plato and Socrates. So both sides have a long history there with the Greeks having the longest by far.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
The way Ottoman end is not pretty way, just like any dissolution of an Empire. We see what happen when British India disollvement, similar trading of ethics happen not in an easy way. The Greece complaint of how Turkish treatment when cleansing ethics Greeks from Anatolia, can be said in similar ways on Turkey feeling when Greece kick out ethnics Turks from Greece mainland and Islands.

The moment British left Cyprus to form their own government, the seed on division of Cyprus already come out. It's accumulated on Turkish invasion in 1974, however the roots always the same how to divide and protect Greeks and Turkish enthics as continuation of Otoman divisions. Sadly it will continue happen for generation to come.

This in the end will still determine geopolitical relationship and tensions between Turkey and Greece and some of Euro Nation's that can be divided on how to handle this.
Turkey now call for Embargo of French Products, and try to sell it through out Muslim Nation's. However in my opinion it is also reaction as before Greece back by French and Cyprus try to bring EU to Embargo Turkey economies ties with EU. Something that some EU's like Germany and Hungary don't want to do, since they still perceived good relationship with Turkey more important on Greece and French 'beef' with Turkey.

Thus so far, despite all the hype on Turkey-EU and NATO relationship demised, I still see it's still so far concentrate with Turkey to Greece/Cyprus relationship with French backing. Thus it's not something new.
Can it be Deteriorating with German (which's still Turkish biggest backer in EU) ? We'll still have to seen on what developing. Although with Erdogan in helm, anything can happen.

Germany historically one of European power that has more close relationship with Turkey since back to WW. However so does British.
If Hitler African campaign was successful and Wermarcht able to pacified Southern Russian flank and Caucascus, I do think Turkey will join Axis just like Romania and Ukraine already did. However with British hold on ME still strong in the end, Turkey seems convince to stay out.

Thus how's Turkey and EU turn out, I do think German or even UK has more influence diplomatically to Turkey, then any other countries in EU. Off course in the end is also US treatment to Turkey.
 
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