The unstable situation in Myanmar.

[Musashi_kenshin]

Myanmar Rebels Say Recapture HQ After Almost 30 Years

A Myanmar ethnic rebel group said it had recaptured its headquarters from the Myanmar military, almost 30 years after it was forced out.

thedefensepost.com

Possibly a more symbolic than significant victory, but it looks like the junta's limited access to the Thai border is being further reduced. A morale boost for the KNLA at the least.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Soldier-spies in Myanmar help pro-democracy rebels make gains

Leaked intelligence from military spies is helping turn the civil war in the resistance’s favour, BBC finds.

www.bbc.co.uk

A more interesting article than the last BBC one posted, on how spies are helping the rebel groups.

I also liked the map they showed, as it suggests the junta is increasingly trapped in urban areas. This reminds me of what happened to the Chinese Nationalists during the civil war. They were strong in urban areas, but the Communists won from the countryside.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Arakan Army In Liberation Mode, Myanmar Junta Desperate To Hold Rakhine – OpEd

Sittwe, former Akyab, has been completely encircled by fighters of the Arakan Army ( AA), the military wing of the United League of Arakan ( ULA) which seeks to liberate the Rakhine ( former Arakan) state from the control of Myanmar's military junta. Nearly 18,000 AA fighters have cut off all...

www.eurasiareview.com

Contrary to predictions that the Arakan Army would sue for peace with the junta, they continue to fight. Indeed, given a recent alleged massacre of government prisoners by the junta, I think the AA have no incentive to agree peace given that the junta clearly cannot be trusted. If they're going to kill their own, why would they not turn on a former rebel group in the future?

Myanmar airstrike on detention camp kills dozens, armed opposition group says

Those killed in attack on camp for relatives of junta soldiers in Rakhine state were women and children, Arakan Army says

www.theguardian.com

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

There's been a severe earthquake in Myanmar (scale 7.7), with the focus 20km north of Mandalay.

Myanmar earthquake latest: Dozens trapped as tower collapses in Bangkok - after 7.7 tremor hundreds of miles away

Buildings have collapsed and people have been evacuated in the Thai capital, Bangkok, after earthquakes in neighbouring Myanmar. The epicentre of the quakes was in neighbouring Myanmar near the city of Mandalay, according to the United States Geological Survey. Follow the latest below.

news.sky.com

As people will appreciate, Myanmar is unlikely to be well equipped to deal with severe earthquakes - wealthier Thailand has sustained damage as far away as Bangkok.

Our first thoughts would be with the victims of the earthquake. But to keep it on topic, I think it's very possible that the junta will now find it even harder to hold on to Mandalay and the other towns in the province due to the likely damage to infrastructure. Damage is likely to be more severe in urban areas where the junta is more dominant. The rebel groups are more powerful in the countryside and jungles.

However, due to the lack of information we may not know the situation on the ground for several days, if not weeks.

EDIT: A second earthquake (6.4) came 12 minutes after the first. This was 18km south of Sagaing.

EDIT 2: The capital and centre of the junta's control, Naypyidaw, was significantly hit. The airport has been wrecked and roads destroyed.

Personally if I was the junta I'd be reassessing the war effort and look to try to negotiate some sort of peace-surrender deal with the rebels. They seem completely incapable of dealing with this humanitarian emergency. If the military were struggling before, it's going to get even worse now that their core territory has been decimated. You can see on this map the intensity of the earthquake - the severe, very strong and strong bubble was mostly in junta hands in January. From a strategic point of view, the earthquake couldn't have happened in a worse location for the junta.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Junta continues air strikes after devastating Myanmar quake

A UN Special Rapporteur tells BBC it is "nothing short of incredible" that the military would "drop bombs when you are trying to rescue people".

www.bbc.co.uk

Incredibly the junta have continued with their air strikes. Such a bizarre decision, not even considering exploring a ceasefire with rebel groups.

It just goes to show how detached from reality the generals are. They still think sheer force of arms will achieve victory, when they need more popular support. Are civilians who have lost everything to the earthquakes going to queue up to join the military, the organisation that is indifferent to their plight?

EDIT: The National Unity Government (political wing of the People's Defence Force) has announced a two week "pause" in military offences in areas affected by the earthquakes. Putting aside any humanitarian motivation, this seems like a clever decision. If the junta puts resources into rescue and repair, it draws them away from other battlefields. If it doesn't, they look uncaring.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

A question in quake-wracked Myanmar: Does this augur the end of the junta?

The earthquake, known to have killed at least 1,000 and probably many more than that, struck a day after Myanmar’s military regime celebrated the country’s 80th Armed Forces Day.

www.japantimes.co.jp

The full article is here. Very interesting for anyone who isn't aware of this, but the junta is very supersticious. More than anything they appear to be putting their hopes of victory into prayer.

 

[koxinga]

Given that just a day before, the junta was announcing plans for general elections in December, this would be a perfect excuse for delay. No loss really.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Given that just a day before, the junta was announcing plans for general elections in December, this would be a perfect excuse for delay. No loss really.

The elections were never going to be credible, they were there purely to benefit the junta and pretend they had the support of the general public. They weren't going to allow them to happen in rebel controlled areas, nor would they allow the Opposition to campaign in the junta-held cities.