The unstable situation in Myanmar.

[koxinga]

These are two twitter sources that I follow to keep updated on the situation. In short, the junta is slowly losing control in the northern states but it is unclear where this is headed, because of different actors and interests at play.

The Chinese are "allowing" this situation due to the scam situation which the junta failed to take action on, while the Brotherhood Alliance has their own objectives (greater autonomy) at play. While the NUG is taking advantage of this, they do not necessarily have the military means to take on the junta independently.

https://twitter.com/TheChindwin

https://twitter.com/nicholas6284

 

[John Fedup]

These are two twitter sources that I follow to keep updated on the situation. In short, the junta is slowly losing control in the northern states but it is unclear where this is headed, because of different actors and interests at play.

The Chinese are "allowing" this situation due to the scam situation which the junta failed to take action on, while the Brotherhood Alliance has their own objectives (greater autonomy) at play. While the NUG is taking advantage of this, they do not necessarily have the military means to take on the junta independently.

https://twitter.com/TheChindwin

https://twitter.com/nicholas6284

I was reading an article about the gangs running the scam operations which are pi$$ing off the PRC who are in turn upset with the junta for not taking action. Definitely a complicated situation.

 

[koxinga]

For western readers, this reddit subreddit is a more organized source of information. YMMV.

Reddit - Dive into anything

www.reddit.com

 

[T.C.P]

For western readers, this reddit subreddit is a more organized source of information. YMMV.

Reddit - Dive into anything

www.reddit.com

I have been using the subreddit and the updates on r/credibledefense to follow the situation.

And as always for those who want to view it on reddit on their browsers-

delete the 'www' from the url with old. Its much more navigable.

MyanmarCivilWar • r/Myanmarcombatfootage

This is a subreddit dedicated to footage and photos related to the civil war in Myanmar.

old.reddit.com

 

[Khabaopie]

The Myanmar Junta: Live by the Gun, Die by the Gun?

A major update; it seems that 'Operation 1027', a coordinated offensive between several rebel groups in the Shan and Chin States as well as against remaining pro-Junta footholds in Kachin State was a success. According to the report linked, among others, rebel groups have managed to capture not only key border crossings to China, but also smaller cities and Tatmadaw Bases.

It's interesting because this is a far cry from the prediction that most had at the start of the conflict (including myself) when urban-based pro-democracy movements began to coalesce into rural armed groups fighting alongside some ethnic militias. Namely, that they'd be able to control the countryside, but not urban areas.

Myanmar-China Trade Corridor Closed as Battle Rages in Northern Shan

Traders report huge losses while the regime is being deprived of up to half a million dollars in tax revenue per day.

www.irrawaddy.com

Most interestingly IMO, is the above link (might need wayback machine to access, site seems to be down intermittently) which claims that the rebels have seized all land border crossing points from Myanmar to China and have halted all trade. Rebel-aligned Private FB and WA groups also claim the same thing. These crossing points account for ~70% of the country's trade with China. It will be interesting to see the PRC's response, IIRC though they supplied weapons at the beginning, this largesse seems to have dried up, and since December last year, they have actively pushed the Junta to peace talks with the rebels.

Apologies for not linking any sources for this last tidbit, but there are also conflicting reports that the Junta has sentenced some its of its regional commanders, including senior generals, to death or lengthy prison sentences à la Stalin given their apparent failures. I just didn't want to link these sources because some come from highly closed off groups, and where the others are in public domain, they are highly conflicting and disagree on which commanders were sentenced and their sentences.

 

[koxinga]

The generals were well documented to have surrendered instead of being captured fighting, notably the six that were at Laukkai. That they there would be were charged isn't really surprising, although whether the death sentences are carried out is another.

Defeated Myanmar Junta Generals Given Death Sentences

Three brigadier generals who surrendered Laukkai this month have been given death sentences and the other three have been jailed for life.

www.irrawaddy.com

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

It's interesting because this is a far cry from the prediction that most had at the start of the conflict (including myself) when urban-based pro-democracy movements began to coalesce into rural armed groups fighting alongside some ethnic militias. Namely, that they'd be able to control the countryside, but not urban areas.

I'm not going to pretend I predicted this, but at the same time I'm not entirely surprised.

After the coup, the Burmese Army committed atrocity after actrocity against the common citizenry. Not some minority group that was politically isolated or disliked - the majority. They shot people in the streets for something as simple as asking why a person had been detained. And threw grenades into apartment blocks and then walked away laughing.

Now the majority of civilians will still keep their heads down in the hope they can survive all of this. But the casual evil displayed by the military has no doubt made a lot of people think that if they don't join the rebels to take down the junta, they may be next. It's not about something like the right to vote, it's the right not to be terrorised just for walking down the street.

 

[koxinga]

.. But the casual evil displayed by the military has no doubt made a lot of people think that if they don't join the rebels to take down the junta, they may be next. It's not about something like the right to vote, it's the right not to be terrorised just for walking down the street.

This "casual evil" and its persistence is what separates the junta versus other strongman, military dictactors in South East Asia, IMO.

The closest would be the Khmer Rouge. ASEAN has its fair share of military coups, corrupted strongmen who did not hesitate to turn guns against their opponents and the press (e.g your Marcos, Suhartos, assorted Thai generals). It might even be indiscriminate, resulting in civilian deaths but never in a cavalier manner.

There is something about the military institutions in Burma that bred this sort of behaviour that Lee Kuan Yew described as "stupid", "dense" and "obtuse". And LKY is someone that has seen and dealt with characters. It seems to pass from one generation of Burmese military leaders to the next generation. My hypothesis is it stems from the whole Thirty Comrade mythos and their role as the protector of the state against external invaders and non-Bamar hill tribes of the north.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Myanmar’s junta declares it will enforce military service laws for young people

State media report all men aged 18-35 and women 18-27 must serve for up to two years and up to five years in a state of emergency

www.theguardian.com

Another sign that the junta is in real danger of being defeated. Conscripting young people in a civil war, especially where the government is unpopular, is a high-risk strategy. There's no guarantee that conscripts wouldn't defect to the rebels and just bolster their ranks.

This smacks of a last-chance-saloon strategy.

 

[koxinga]

https://www.reddit.com/r/Myanmarcombatfootage/comments/1bin8kv

Video Shows Rohingya Forcibly Recruited Into Myanmar Military

Experts say youths are conscripted from displaced person camps and trained as soldiers in Rakhine state

www.voanews.com

Another dangerous development, the junta is exploiting latent ethnic tensions, by pushing the Rohingya to fight against of the factions, the Arakan Army. Ironically, the junta was persecuting the Rohingya not too long ago.

The desperation has reached another level.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Myanmar military loses border town in another big defeat

A coalition of opposition forces in Myanmar has taken control of the busiest border crossing into Thailand.

www.bbc.co.uk

The junta have lost control of Myawaddy, Burma's eastern border township. Worse, rather than stage a strategic withdrawal the hundreds of troops there have reportedly all surrendered. This has provided an added bonus for the rebels of the junta's local weapons stockpile.

Although I can easily see the civil war continuing into 2025, one does have to ask whether the junta now has any realistic path to victory. The best I can imagine for them is a protracted campaign where they continue to slowly lose ground and more personnel defect or abadon their posts. Not a rapid collapse along the lines of the former Afghani Islamic Republic, but the end result being the same.

 

[John Fedup]

Myanmar military loses border town in another big defeat

A coalition of opposition forces in Myanmar has taken control of the busiest border crossing into Thailand.

www.bbc.co.uk

The junta have lost control of Myawaddy, Burma's eastern border township. Worse, rather than stage a strategic withdrawal the hundreds of troops there have reportedly all surrendered. This has provided an added bonus for the rebels of the junta's local weapons stockpile.

Although I can easily see the civil war continuing into 2025, one does have to ask whether the junta now has any realistic path to victory. The best I can imagine for them is a protracted campaign where they continue to slowly lose ground and more personnel defect or abadon their posts. Not a rapid collapse along the lines of the former Afghani Islamic Republic, but the end result being the same.

What does Xi want to happen? China will want an endgame that is beneficial.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

What does Xi want to happen?

I'm sure he wanted the civil war over by now.

China will want an endgame that is beneficial.

China doesn't get to choose. Things have gone too far, and the junta's support is dwindling. The junta need more bodies and higher morale, not more weapons or political support. Xi can't really keep the junta in power even if he wanted to. It would be like the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan, and he doesn't want to be sucked into a civil war.

I expect that Xi will just wait for the junta to lose and pretend he never supported them.

 

[koxinga]

I expect that Xi will just wait for the junta to lose and pretend he never supported them.

Well, they are hedging their bets, and the meeting (below) is sending a message to Min Aung Hlaing that there are alternatives.

A stalemate is indeed a serious possibility; the regime was overextended in the border / hinterland areas. While losing land access to China/Laos, they still retain access via sea and allows them to concentrate their limited resources to defend the inner / central Burma.

Ex-Myanmar Leader U Thein Sein’s Meetings With Foreign Dignitaries Raise Eyebrows

China and other international stakeholders may hope the ex-president, once seen as a reformer, can persuade Min Aung Hlaing to end his regime’s violence, observers say.

www.irrawaddy.com

Peng, the director-general of the International Liaison Department of the Communist Party of China (CPC), also met with former dictator Than Shwe. While the CPC has been tightlipped about Peng’s meetings, Ban said in a statement that he met with the regime leaders and U Thein Sein to discuss the current situation. He emphasized the importance of all parties playing a role in securing a lasting solution to the crisis, including the parallel civilian National Unity Government (NUG), which commands the loyalty of the vast majority of Myanmar people.