Update 2: Regional views on the coup d'état,
6. The US is providing nearly US$135 million in bilateral assistance to Burma in FY2020; but only a very small portion, is assistance to the government. So there is a small sliver of that foreign assistance that would actually be implicated. The Biden administration has formally determined that the
military takeover in Myanmar constitutes a coup d'état, a designation that requires the US to cut its foreign assistance to the country. "After careful review of the facts and circumstances, we have assessed that Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of Burma's ruling party, and Win Myint, the duly elected head of government, were deposed in a military coup on February 1," a State Department official said.
7. Following the installation of Myint Swe, the vice president and a former general, as acting president, the military declared a one-year state of emergency. "If we do not approach this well, Myanmar could grow further away from politically free democratic nations and join the league of China," State Minister of Defence Yasuhide Nakayama told Reuters in an interview, saying Japan should discuss a common strategy with its allies.
(a) Japan, a major aid donor with longstanding close ties to Myanmar, responded by calling for the release of Aung San Suu Kyi and members of her civilian government, and the restoration of democracy.
(b) Since 2014, through in-country seminars and other programs, Japan's defense ministry has been training Myanmar's military officers on underwater medicine, aviation meteorology, disaster relief and Japanese language. The two countries also have an academic exchange programme, under which eight cadets from the Myanmar military are currently studying at Japan's National Defense Academy.
(c) Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne has discussed the military coup with US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and the chairman of ASEAN (currently, Brunei). ASEAN member-states Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia expressed concern over the military takeover, calling for restraint and a peaceful resolution to the unfolding coup. "These events are particularly concerning because the political stability of ASEAN member states is essential to achieving a peaceful and secure region, a prosperous and open Indo-Pacific," Payne told the Australian Senate. "ASEAN of course is at the centre of our vision for the Indo-Pacific region."
(d) Australian Defence Force (ADF) troops have provided about A$1.5 million in training, assistance and English lessons to members of the Myanmar military for several years. If the Australians make the mistake of deciding to cut military-to-military ties, the ADF would be without contacts or a voice (like the Americans and be in the same position as Gen. Mark Milley — without even a phone number to call in Myanmar) — any government deciding to cut ties with the Tatmadaw is easy — it’s just no one will pick up your call once that happens.
(e) ASEAN’s current chair, Brunei,
called for ‘dialogue among parties, reconciliation and the return to normalcy’. Expect little to be done as ASEAN member states are split in their reactions. Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia expressed concern, while Thailand, and Cambodia noted that this was Myanmar’s ‘internal affair.’ As of Jan 2020, Singapore companies and its sovereign wealth funds have made a cumulative investment of US$22.7 billion (S$26 billion) into Myanmar according to
Enterprise Singapore; which means the Singapore Government has skin in the game (for a peaceful outcome).
8. China’s reaction has been largely predictable. The
foreign ministry spokesperson ‘noted’ the situation in Myanmar and hoped that ‘all parties in Myanmar will properly handle their differences under the constitution and legal framework to maintain political and social stability’. Today, following news of the UN Security Council meeting, the
foreign ministry spokesperson noted that any international action should help political and social stability in Myanmar and avoid intensifying conflict.
9. As Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin
noted, China is a friendly neighbour to Myanmar. The carefully cultivated ties with Myanmar’s government have
further facilitated China’s deepening relationship with another ASEAN member state, offering material support and
cover from international pressure over the situation in the Rakhine State within the UN Security Council. President Xi Jinping’s
first overseas trip in 2020 was to Myanmar and China is reportedly the
second-largest investor.
10. Despite the fact that Biden’s team has called it a coup, this American administration (being only a few days in power), has little or no leverage and even fewer contacts.
(a) U.S. officials, including Gen. Mark Milley, the chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, have been trying to reach their counterparts in Myanmar, which is also known as Burma. But according to information from U.S. officials so far, there’s been no luck in reaching key figures, including the deposed de facto civilian ruler Aung San Suu Kyi.
(b) The coup d'état is a
major foreign policy crisis facing Biden just days into his tenure. Biden, who has pledged to promote democracy and human rights globally, has decried the takeover and said his administration is weighing imposing sanctions on the Asian country.
(c) Therefore, the Americans are likely to have ongoing conversations with Australia, India, Japan, and other countries that have better relations with Myanmar, in the wake of the army seizing power in the country through a coup d'état.
(d) Among Myanmar’s neighbours in the region, the reactions were more measured. India released a
statement expressing concern and reiterating its support for Myanmar’s democratic transition. However, New Delhi will likely be cautious of overtly criticising the military owing to its deepening
security relationship with the Tatmadaw and
cooperation on
counterinsurgency and border management along its troubled north-eastern border (which included a three-week long coordinated operation in May 2019). A
joint visit in Oct 2020 to Myanmar by India’s foreign secretary and chief of army staff reflected the importance of security ties to the bilateral relationship. India for example, also gifted a Kilo class submarine UMS Minye Theinkhathu to the Tatmadaw.
(e) Myanmar serves an important function for India as the only ASEAN member that it shares a land border with, making it an important feature in its
‘Act East’ policy, which is intended to expand India’s relationships with Southeast and East Asian countries. Myanmar is pivotal to two major projects under this policy, the India–Myanmar–Thailand trilateral highway and the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project, which includes the development of a deep-water port at Sittwe (Rakhine State, Myanmar).
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