The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
From wiki

Press gangs (or impressment) were groups of naval officers and armed men who forcibly recruited British subjects into the Royal Navy. Legalized in 1664, it was used extensively during the 18th and early 19th centuries to rapidly crew warships during major conflicts.
Yes, that’s the press-ganging I was referring to. I still can’t think of any more “recent” examples.

To be fair, there have been buckets of articles about Ukraine’s manpower shortage.
I’d say “had been”. Just googled for fun and the last article I see on the subject is dated last September and it is from Kyiv Independent. Surely there is a random one somewhere since. Probably a different choice of words to search would provide a different result too? All recent stuff is about the reform to tackle the shortage and whatnot (already discussed). To note, I am talking about news media, not think tanks and other analysts.

I don’t believe I have seen many with the collapsing part though, not since February 2022.
 

rsemmes

Active Member

For example, in February 2026, a Moscow court arrested Ksenia Grashchenkova, the company’s former director of procurement and logistics, on embezzlement charges; the following month, her former deputy director for procurement and logistics was detained on related charges.
-Look at that! Russia fighting corruption. Soon, it's going to be able to join the EU...
Ushkuynik is part of a broader state-supported ecosystem of research and production centres focused on unmanned systems development, testing, and evaluation. Overall, such efforts allow the military to address critical battlefield needs more rapidly and improve combat effectiveness.
-Ukrainian innovation, obviously...
Russia is likely to sustain a high production tempo in selected categories of weapons systems while gradually rebuilding its strategic reserves. Russia’s drone output reaching several hundreds of thousands per month, according to industry experts. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi seemed to confirm this assessment in a recent statement, in which he claimed that Russia plans to build 7.3 million FPV drones alone in 2026.
Russia maintains a large arsenal of air defence systems and related equipment while continuing to produce advanced SAM systems, including Kalibr cruise and Iskander ballistic missiles.
Performance of Russian SAM systems has also improved compared to the early stages of the war, with greater effectiveness against aircraft, drones, and Western-supplied munitions. This adaptation reflects increased operator experience, better coordination with aviation, software upgrades, and stronger EW resilience.
-Surprisingly, no collapse.

If the war in Ukraine were to conclude, Russia could rebuild some of its lost capacity within a relatively short time frame, and in the longer term, according to multiple intelligence assessments, it could, for instance, launch a military action against the Baltic NATO states, potentially gaining “regional superiority at least in the initial stages of the war.
-Now, the important part.
Russia had been building new barracks, military towns, warehouses, and equipment depots near the borders of Norway, Finland, and the Baltic states. Once completed, this will enable Moscow to station up to 115,000 troops in the north-western direction, nearly six times more than before the 2022 war.
-Being able to deploy troops at the borders of NATO countries? Unthinkable!
A model of warfare built on mass attrition, reduced reliance on armoured vehicles, large-scale use of low-cost systems (especially drones), and extensive EW use to jam NATO communications while protecting its own forces from guided strikes. Moreover, Russia’s ability to sustain casualties differs from that of democratic societies, where military losses create serious political costs.
-What it is not pointing out is... Why? Casualties... Yes, like deploying troops on other countries borders, not our MO... Unless it's to protect Greenland from an ambitious emperor, Putin.
Russia’s defence industrial base is likely to remain on a wartime footing even if the fighting in Ukraine subsides.
-Why, because there is no stress in the Russian economy? The US is increasing its production of shells and missiles... to overheat the economy?

So, Russia doesn't have enough skilled workers, has to import electronics from the West... and is going to invade NATO.
Come again?
 

personaldesas

Active Member
Yes, that’s the press-ganging I was referring to. I still can’t think of any more “recent” examples.
KMT in the 30s/40s is probably the clearest modern example that comes to mind. In recent years Eritrea or Myanmar could also be mentioned.

All of them pointing at the terrible situation of Ukraine and its imminent collapse?
I’d say “had been”. Just googled for fun and the last article I see on the subject is dated last September and it is from Kyiv Independent. Surely there is a random one somewhere since. Probably a different choice of words to search would provide a different result too? All recent stuff is about the reform to tackle the shortage and whatnot (already discussed). To note, I am talking about news media, not think tanks and other analysts.

I don’t believe I have seen many with the collapsing part though, not since February 2022.
That’s fair. Most of what I read on it was in 2025, if I remember correctly, from my usual sources (FT, The Economist, Bloomberg, Al Jazeera), along with analysts like Michael Kofman and Rob Lee.

I agree it’s been much less prominent recently, and I can hardly recall seeing it framed as “Ukraine’s military is about to collapse”, probably because that simply isn’t the case. But it was always framed as a significant problem.

Likewise, those same publications generally weren’t predicting an imminent Russian collapse either. They covered the strain, losses and economic costs, but usually with the caveat that Russia could sustain them for a long time if it had to.

Of course, someone whose media diet consisted mainly of the Daily Mail, Pravda.ru, or hot takes on social media may well have come away with a rather different impression.
 
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crest

Active Member
Yes, that’s the press-ganging I was referring to. I still can’t think of any more “recent” examples.

i can think of many. lets start with lets say any war that involved child soldiers. any war that has involved prisioners used as soldiers.... i do believe you would not be hard pressed to find cases in many countries druing ww11... or even in democratic states with drafts and the resulting arests of draft dodgers only to have a court send them to the war is something that only looks different but in effect is the same thing. i would hazared to say that any nation that has need of the method ultimitaly will result in using it. if you want the same time period as and later then the press gang you can allways look at the levie in mass.....
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Massive logistics centres?I know there is justification in there somewhere, but…

Ah, there is it is:

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^ Of course, what was I thinking?!

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The savages are now using Iskanders and/or other missiles to target cars in Kyiv. And they can’t even do that properly: official UA report suggests 41 missiles launched and 18 intercepted (some sources suggest a few more launched and only 2+ intercepts - don’t know what is true, probably in the middle, likely closer to a lower end). Some UA sources call it an “opportunistic” attack because Kyiv does not have interceptors. At least 23 hits targeting civilians and reportedly killing one of them is not exactly a “good return” on investment. While life is priceless, Jay there estimates that it cost Russia $400M (crazy math too, but hey, math is hard) to kill one person in Ukraine. Overall, must be the worst civilian-targeting campaign ever.

Furthermore,

"Virtually all major market players have stopped purchasing grain on a CPT deep-water terminal basis. As of today, Ukraine's deep-water grain exports have effectively come to a halt," Kostetskyi said.[…]

"We are now at the midpoint of a 40-day military coercion campaign aimed at forcing Russia into peace negotiations. There are another 20 days ahead. Ukraine's deep-water exports will likely have to remain 'in shelter' for at least the next 20 days, and possibly longer," he said.


From July 15, so a few strikes ago (in English):

 

personaldesas

Active Member
Some wild statements were made by Ratcliffe about Russians being killed within 30min of arriving in the frontline. It's interesting to see the origins of those claims.

Screenshot 2026-07-19 at 18.45.47.png
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Screenshot 2026-07-19 at 18.46.25.png

Screenshot 2026-07-19 at 18.48.59.png
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The broken telephone is quite startling. It came from a Russian channel that talks about soldiers, in an assault, that fail to find cover or a safe position. This is not inherently unreasonable, though we still don't know if it's true or not. But it's morphed into high ranking officials claiming that the survival timeline for a Russian soldier is 20-30 minutes from the moment they arrive on the front lines? They're either intentionally repeating nonsense or there is a deep and wide-spread dysfunction there.
 
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rsemmes

Active Member
So, Russia is infiltrating, we cannot say "advancing" these days, towards Kramatorsk and Dobropillia...
[/URL]

“This is yet another deliberate Russian strike against an unarmed civilian vessel flying a foreign flag that posed no military threat whatsoever. The attack is an act of terror against peaceful maritime navigation and a gross violation of international humanitarian law,” the Ukrainian Navy said.
"Russia is committing war crimes and undermining Black Sea security by attacking civilian merchant ships. This is an assault on freedom of navigation and the principles of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea,” Koretskyi concluded.

Is the Ukrainian Prime Minister Serhii Koretskyi stating that Ukraine is committing war crimes?
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member

Best known to general public for running over a pile of tires (just over a metre high) laid out by the fellow countrymen unhappy with the overthrow of the president they elected and greatly disliking the new people taking over, and demanding greater autonomy from Kyiv. More recently (for some reason not) remembered for resigning from (or quitting a) smaller role under extremely little pressure a few days after accepting a promotion.

Will be interesting to see the changes at the front. People complained a lot about “too late Syrsky” leaving men to die for no reason to hold a position or a “fortress”. That should be solved now, naturally translating into increased rate of Russian advances. Busification should now naturally (but gradually) disappear as well because the influx of volunteers should be more than sufficient, as it was in 2022.

Ironically, I see plenty of talk by Ukrainians today that it wasn’t really Syrsky that was the problem, he just did what had to be done in the circumstances. Go figure. At least this guy now gets some time (a year?) for all the shit to still be blamed on his predecessor, as was the case with Zaluzhny.

Also, if you think about what is/has been happening in the bigger picture. Russian completely mess up the invasion, likely aimed at some Georgia-like outcome a decade and a half prior. Millions of inspired Ukrainians, witnessing a Russian retreat, wrongly believing in immediate collapse of the Russian army (and possibly country), rush to volunteer to the recruitment centres. Time goes by, Russia is still in the process of collapsing 4.5 years later, still advancing, cemeteries keep growing, people still leaving the country, those who cannot (due to the ban on leaving and lack of funds to make the ban void for their person) clearly do not want to die and do their best to avoid being grabbed off the streets and be sent to the front to protect some position that should have been abandoned weeks ago, with a prospect of drinking rain water and dieting potentially for months on. It gets to the point that bystanders are no longer bystanders as they physically help the busification victims to resist the process and get away to live another day, while chanting something about monsters, meat grinder and certain death, etc. At the same time, somehow, the polls (I will use “allegedly” here, because they all come from one source in Kyiv) indicate that all these same people want to keep fighting, willing to join the army if needed, and definitely do not want to give up any territory, including Crimea that was long gone anyway. In fact, they are happy with the potential blockade of their alleged fellow countrymen in the peninsula, depriving them not only of fuel, but also water and food, along with other necessities.

Then comes someone like Fedorov, largely a populist (like Zelensky was back in the day… well, still is), promising fewer deaths, and more of all the good things, including the choking of the Crimean countrymen eager to return to the Ukrainian ranks. He says that Ukraine has already ceased the initiative on the battlefield and in he skies:

IMG_6039.jpeg

He talks about some clean war, shift away from the infantry-dependent “Soviet-style” warfare, greatly reduce casualties, implement the reform that provides for better serving conditions, limited terms, epic monetary remuneration, and so on. Basically “paradise” compared to today’s “hell”. Of course, at least half of what he promises had already been implemented previously and legislatively so, in spite of being detached from reality, which is why it never worked. Most of the other half is just as detached from reality, so… But hey, people eat this up as a breath of fresh air. Many, however, judging by the current talks, understand the fairy telling. Which is why the epic protests intentionally filmed from the street in reality look like this:

IMG_5906.jpeg

In other words, it’s quite “Trumpesque”.

What this whole thing shows, in my opinion, rather very well is the fatigue from the war, prevailing corruption that each next populist promises to rid of, yet somehow gets in neck deep himself and/or with people they surround themselves with, etc (compare it to the landslide victory by Zelensky in 2019).

in the meantime, people keep creating their own reality that is simply not there:

IMG_6037.jpeg

As I had already mentioned this previously, it boggles my mind that people start coming up with weird theories instead of looking straight at what they wrote and drawing conclusions based on most likely (and kind of obvious) situation. In this case: "A year ago all of the remaining MiG-29SMTs were parked, & the older 9.13s were mothballed or derelict.” I mean I understand it must be hard to read and process in a extremely confused mind, but…

Another example of the “all NEW” wunderwaffe based on the Ukrainian ingenuity:

IMG_6038.jpeg

I mean think of the ridiculousness of all this.

We’ve had hundreds of Flamingos manufactured monthly, at half the cost (which is actually extremely expensive for what it is) of a Tomahawk, that also fly double the distance and carry double the payload. Its “wings are filled with styrofoam” is apparently a selling point (not sure why). Now we are developing a ballistic missile interceptors half the cost of “Patriots” (not even sure what that means) and we are doing it with a crew of Euro peeps (and, of course, Canadians too!), people who provided their best tech (with years of development) years ago and have been updating it with Ukrainian input and data ever since, and it still cannot intercept ballistic missiles AND it costs as much as “Patriot” or more. We also have Ukraine with (allegedly) a whole bunch of licenses to manufacturer stuff they have no business of being near of (if or when the experiment fails, the tech will all go to the highest bidder or Russia itself?), that is going to produce it all by bundles no one else ever dreamed of… all while sitting on electricity and water rations, constant bombardment, significant shortage in the workforce, etc. None of the restrictions other participants have, by the way. They are, however, restricted by the funding (which they also provide to Ukraine) and lack of a number of various very important components in sufficient quantities, none of which are manufactured in… Ukraine.

Anyway, the delusion is much deeper than the scratch of the surface reveals. Now, with new CiC, loved by everyone, and still pending the person for the MoD job, things sure will change quickly. By the way, the Commander-in-Chief will still have the same generals (and others) to command and take advice from, many of those people supported the predecessor and his methods. The MoD (and the Foreign Minister, for that matter ) will only be known after the Ukrainian parliament returns from a well-deserved vacation in the middle of August or there about, because there is nothing extraordinary happening in the country and all is well.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Another thought. “The butcher” had no issues “holding the line” and throwing meat in order to keep the narrative going when necessary (usually when it had to be illustrated that Ukraine is winning), or suicidal Crimea landings, or Krynky, or -insert your own-. It likely was not his (or Zaluzhny’s) initiatives to begin with. Would the new guy follow suit or resign and we will be looking for the new CiC (like Biletskiy, to go full circle)? Or when the “Winston Churchill” says that the offensive is progressing as planned (more than half a year after it failed), would he be Zaluzhny (finally) saying that it is nonsense and get fired, or Syrsky saying “yes, sir”. I mean that is a huge part of the role, no?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Northern Sumy/Chernigov.

Russian advances continue, grabbing more country-side, this time in the south part of the area, towards Ulanovo and Yastrebschina. Russia has also taken Bachevsk. The area remains insignificant in the grand scheme of things, and even with substantial Russian gains, threatening the nearest town would be a long shot.


Sumy region.

North of Sumy Russian forces have taken all of Kondratovka, gained ground south-west of Andreevka, have taken all of Ivolzhanskoe, and pushed south towards Khrapovschina. East of Sumy Russian forces have gained the upper hand in Ryasnoe, pushing Ukraine to the western outskirts. Around Miropol'ye Russian forces continue to gain ground across the Psel river, and in the forests along the border towards Malaya Rybitsa.


Russian bomb strikes on Sumy, reportedly 4 civilians killed and 17 wounded. With Russia's creeping advance on the city, I think this is the real threat. It's unlikely Russia will take the city, unless Ukraine really no longer has the strength to fight. However the city could be rendered uninhabitable.


Kharkov area.

Russia is advancing inside Kazach'ya Lopan' and has for the first time advanced southward west of the reservoir by Liptsi. There are also reports of new Russian cross-border attacks east of Kazach'ya Lopan'. So far these advances remain insignificant. Near Volchansk Russia has made a large scale push southward towards Beliy Kolodets. Zemlyanoy Yar is now in the grey zone, and there is a large Russian wedge. This is a surprising development after many many months of very slow advances. It's also surprising because there were reports of Ukrainian units from the Kupyansk area being sent here suggesting the area is being prioritized, and there were some Ukrainian gains towards the western side of this area. If Russia can consolidate the large grey zone around Vol'chye and Zemlyanoy Yar, and possibly even take Beliy Kolodets, that would be a substantial change in the configuration of the front line. Another movement or two like that and Ukrainian logistics towards the Kupyansk area would be under threat. But this would run counter to the normal patterns of this war. West of there Semenovka is now back under Russian control and Russian forces are pushing south-east from there.


Kupyansk area.

Russia has retaken most of western Kupyansk and now holds the majority of the town again, and firmly, it appears. The speed with which this happened suggests that significant Russian forces were in western Kupyansk for quite some time. North of Kupyansk Petro-Ivanovka is now in the grey zone.


Russian bomb strikes on Kolodeznoe.


Ukraine hit a couple of bridges in Belgorod region, Russia, on the route to Russia's forces in Kupyansk.


Oskol front.

Ukraine hit a Tor decoy in Lugansk region.


Krasniy Liman area.

Russia has expanded their area of control south of the town, capturing the forestry station. The fighting inside the town continues without an obvious outcome. Meanwhile Ukrainian forces have counter-attacked towards Stavki contesting the village. The area is now one large grey zone. On the north flank fighting has remained relatively static after initial Ukrainian gains.


Nikolaevka area.

Russia is continuing to advance in this area. They've expanded their area of control around Krivaya Luka and Kaleniki and taken Piskunovka, the next village along the Severskiy Donets river. Their advances here threaten Ukrainian logistics into Krasniy Liman. They've also cleared most of the area east of Ray-Aleksandrovka. They're also continuing to clear countryside areas east of the canal.


Russian bomb and MLRS strikes on Nikolaevka. It appears the powerplant towers have collapsed.


Russian bomb strikes on Slavyansk.


Kramatorsk axis.

Russian advances here are putting Russia awfully close to Kramatorsk, with front Russian positions being only a few kilometers away. This overlay of the frontline from AMK on the topographic map reveals quite a bit I think. Across the canal Russian forces have taken Malinovka and Tikhonovka, and pushed onward into Ivanovka and Vasyutinovka.


Russian bomb strikes on Kramatorsk.


Russian bomb strikes on Druzhkovka.


Konstantinovka.

In northern Konstantinovka Russian forces are gaining ground, and while there is still Ukrainian presence at the outskirts, the fighting is shifting to Osikovo. West of Konstantinovka Russian forces are pushing towards Nikolaypol'ye. Northern Konstantinovka Russian forces now hold most of the city, and are working on clearing the last few areas. North-east of Chasov Yar Russian forces continue to push forward, trying to flank Ukraianian positions in the Chasov Yar area. East of Konstantinovka Russian forces have gained ground on the outskirts of Chasov Yar. I suspect Ukraine won't be able to hold this salient for long. Pretty soon this and the Druzhkovka area will be one and the same.


It appears the infamous 425th Assault Regiment attempted a flag raising in Konstantinovka, but were captured by Russian forces.


Russian drone strikes, one on a Ukrainian police vehicle the other on some sort of armed person in the area between Druzhkovka and Konstantinovka.


Russian artillery hitting Alekseevka-Druzhkovka.


Ukrainian strike on Konstantinovka, the target is reportedly Russian drone operator positions.


Mass flag raisings in Konstantinovka by Russian forces.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Pokrovsk area.

Russian forces have cleared Ukrainian forces out of Rodinskoe again, and this time they hold the mine complex west of town, making a re-infiltration unlikely. North-west of Rodinskoe Russian forces have approached Biletskoe from the south, and are beginning to wrap around it from the west. North of there Russian forces have taken Noviy Donbas village and a chunk of ground north of it, putting them in a position to advance on Dobropol'ye from the east and on Biletskoe from the north. West of there Russian forces have taken fields north of Vasilievka, and are trying to infiltrate Shevchenko. West of Pokrovsk Russian forces are pushing towards Sergeevka, gaining ground in the countryside.


There are reports of Russian infiltrators penetrating into Dobropol'ye, which is not surprising given the distances and the porous nature of the current front line. However there's no evidence of consolidation.


Russian Gerber drone strike on a Ukrainian drone launch point in Dobropol'ye.


Russian D-30SN strikes near Dobropol'ye.


Dnepropetrovsk axis.

Russian forces have retaken Muravka and are gaining ground along the border of the regions. There are also Russian advances towards Belyakovka. Meanwhile south of there the grey zone expands with Russian forces continuing to penetrated to the western edge by the Volch'ya river, and Ukrainian forces penetrating towards Komar.


Russian glide-bomb strikes have intensified in this area clearly intending to make Ukraine pay a high price for their gains here.


Eastern Zaporozhye.

On the northern side Ukrainian forces are continuing to push Voronoe, Yanvarskoe, and Malievka. The grey zone expands, but no consolidation is confirmed. West of there Russian penetrations northwards towards Pokrovskoe continue with Russian infiltrators reaching Aleksandrovka, but no consolidation is confirmed. The situation remains very murky. West of Gulyaypole Russian forces have recaptured Vozdvizhenka, and most of Verkhnyaya Tersa. Russian infiltrators have reached Lesnoe, Kopani, and Rovnoe. Russia also retook part of Gor'koe, pushing Ukrainian forces away from Zaliznichnoe. Russian forces have also advanced near Lugovskoe and Charovnoe.


Zaporozhye area.

Around Stepnogorsk it appears Ukraine's offensive effort has slowed, and Russian forces have started regaining ground east of it. Some Ukrainian infiltration is still happening southward. Ukraine has counter-attacked into Belogor'ye, retaking most of the village.


Russian bomb strikes on Orekhov.


Ukraine is deploying anti-drone netting over roads in southern Zaporozhye city.


We have new versions of the Molniya drone show up in Zaporozhye area, allegedly they're autonomous.


Dnepr front.

Russian bomb strikes on Kherson, targets allegedly include Ukrainian UAV operator staging areas from the 414th UAV system.


Russian interceptor drones striking various Ukrainian drones, Kherson region. This is the work of the 116th UAV detachment, from the 4th MilBase.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Black Sea/Crimea.

Ukraine has been conducting a protracted strike campaign against Russian civilian vessels carrying cargo in the Azov sea, this is likely an extension of their attempts to cut logistics to Crimea. This campaign has been quite extensive with over 100 vessels hit, though at least some videos posted are duplicates. It should be noted that the strikes are mainly by drones, which means the ships generally survive the strike and tend to get where they're going but require significant repairs afterwards. In fact we saw a change in the strikes, from hitting the superstructure of the ship, to targeting the cargo and equipment on deck, presumably in an attempt to cause a fire. Russia has responded by striking Ukrainian shipping in the Black Sea, and now Russia and Ukraine have started doing non-stop strikes against civilian shipping in the Black Sea. Drones are the main munition being used but we have a recent ugly incident of Russia using AShMs against a civilian ship, destroying it quite thoroughly. Ukraine also uses unmanned boats for these attacks. Right now Ukraine is trying to disrupt Russian ship traffic primarily to Crimea while Russia is trying to shut down traffic to Odessa and Chernomorsk. Russia also hit some parked ships in Nikolaev that have been trapped there for years since they can't really sail past the Kinburn spit.

Note the sheer volume of Ukrainian strikes on Russian shipping is telling, and unlike truck traffic, there are far fewer total ships. Arguably this makes for a bigger disruption.


Russia apparently caught out a Neptune AShM launcher and hit it with an Iskander. Notably absent is the necessary double-tap to ensure it's finished. Note the footage quality isn't great and we can't really confirm they hit what they say they hit.


Ukraine has sank a Russian coast guard vessel, the Izumrud, with an unmanned boat strike.


Ukraine hit a decomissioned Su-24 in Crimea and a MiG-29 in Bel'bek, that might be a decommissioned former Ukrainian jet being used as a decoy (it's been parked since '24 at that location).


Russian Lancet strikes on Ukrainian unmanned boats.


It appears Russia hit a Ukrainian air defense position near Odessa, though the details are scarce.


A Ukrainian unmanned boat dropped off a UGV on the Kinburn spit. So far this is clearly more proof of concept then a real effort to accomplish something, but it's likely we will see more of this.


Ukraine hit hangars at Saki airbase in Crimea but reportedly failed to penetrate the hangars.

 
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