The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[KipPotapych]

Remember this?

Zelenskyy said 228 Ukrainian drone specialists have deployed to five countries — Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Jordan.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/drones-ukraine-kuwait-qatar-9.7136187

Something must have gone wrong because:

The U.S. Department of State approved a possible sale of nearly $2 billion worth of counter-unmanned aerial systems to Kuwait.

Kuwait requested the c-UAS platforms, built by Anduril, in an effort to improve the country’s ability to counter current and future threats, according to a Friday release. The request followed attacks last week carried out by Iran on Kuwait infrastructure.

US approves Kuwait request to buy nearly $2 billion of counter-drone platforms

Following recent Iranian strikes on Kuwait, the U.S. approved a potential foreign military sale of counter-UAS platforms made by Anduril.

www.defensenews.com

Many appear to be surprised: “But the long-term strategic deals UA signed with the Gulf States?!”, “It’s absurd to buy from Audril when Ukrainian interceptors are better, cheaper, and they have all the experience?!”, “But Ukraine intercepts 95-98% of the Russian UAVs over their territory and 90% of missiles?!”

Well, Kuwaitis did not think it was absurd at all. Note the “request followed attacks last week”, two and a half months after the alleged deployment of the Ukrainian drone specialists to protect Kuwait, among others. I wrote back then that you do not see any (like zero) statements from the side on the other end of the alleged Ukrainian deals and operations. Either there was nothing there or things are not as advertised (“I would bet my last” this is the case, laughing). Which takes us to my post #14,576 above. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, it has to be a duck. Not a fierce bird of prey Zelensky is telling stories about.

In the meantime,

Ukraine's race to winter: a 5.4-billion-euro plan, and a problem paying for it

As Russian drones and missiles continue to pound Ukraine's war-damaged energy infrastructure, Kyiv is struggling to find funding for a 5.4 billion euro ($6.2 billion) "energy resilience plan" first announced in spring. The next few months are a race against time to prepare for what energy...

kyivindependent.com

On a different note, have you seen the videos of the Flamingo flying in Russia? It’s like flying elephants - huge and super slow. Yet still flying hundreds of kilometres from the Ukrainian border. One of the videos:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2064561336239972845

However:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2064709606299869491

And

 

[vikingatespam]

I am willing to bet now then, lets check it out.. i guess all gamble men are fools then.

The "men who gamble" is a superset of those who are dumb enough to bet their last (something) on a 50/50. The two cases are not the same.

i normally bet on underdogs where the win percentage is lower than 25% and i win sometimes. i have also placed bets on 70 80% win probability and still lost. i bet like that because that's where you win good money. you guys like to use language like, FOOL, YOU DONT KNOW ENGLICH OR YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT YOUR WRITING, i think this is offensive, if you don't like my opinion just say your wrong, no need calling names.
i also don't agree with most of the things you said here but that does not warrant me to call you a fool or other names but i see that, that's what you do to people you don't agree with in the whole trend so am not going to waste my time with you. WISE MAN

The reason for getting flamed is because you claimed something ridiculous ("war industries in UKR are manned by foreigners because Ukrainians would steal everything") and refuse to clarify, and you keep doubling down.

If the English language is an issue I might suggest using google translate. Its getting better and better and I routinely use it on other forums.

 

[vikingatespam]

Russia and Ukraine are both corrupt no doubt, but Russia still manages to build weapons systems that work (expensive ones for that matter) without begging anyone for anything....

...other than Iran and North Korea.

"Ohhhh...please, Kim Jong Fat, please trade me some shitty NK artillery shells so I can keep my fiasco going...." <---Second Rate Stalin

 

[vikingatespam]

i get you, Ukraine is paying with their lives, but for what thou?

UKR decided on its own to fight. They dont want to be Russian.

 

[vikingatespam]

they chose to fight for freedom by selling their sovereignty to the west?

How exactly are they "selling their sovereignty to the west" ? Please explain

not most, some Ukrainians don't like Russia, that's perfectly fine. because they don't like Russia, don't mean we should go and arm them to go get the Russians,

We armed them so they wouldnt have to BE Russians. Just like we armed the British so they wouldnt have to BE German. Just like we armed the Chinese so they wouldnt have to BE Japanese.

 

[KipPotapych]

Here is Zelensky, not me, telling everyone that the letter he “sent” to Putin was never intended to achieve a ceasefire or negotiate:

"I had a purpose when I sent a letter to Putin. I think I got the result I needed," he said.

Зеленський про лист до Путіна: Я отримав результат, який був потрібен

Президент Володимир Зеленський заявив, що серія його звернень до міжнародних лідерів та інституцій, зокрема відкритий лист до Володимира Путіна, дала очікуваний результат. — Укрінформ.

www.ukrinform.ua

He added (and how dumb is that?):

Zelensky clarified that with this letter he wanted to show various allies who is ready for peace and who is not.

The article further states:

In addition, Zelensky informed that during the month he sent several letters to various institutions, including the EU, Congress and the US President.

Funny how none of those were posted on the internet and likely did not start with “when you came to power…” Why? Because:

"I had different goals[…]”

Like I said in my post on the subject, the letter was for the lemmings, not for Putin or peace. What’s funny, most of the articles I read about it describe the letter exactly like Ukrinform does here:

As Ukrinform reported, on June 4, Zelensky wrote an open letter to Putin and offered a personal meeting to end the war. He noted that such a meeting can take place in third countries, which traditionally act as platforms for international negotiations.

A “mildly” insane interpretation. What was that guy’s handle, the one who always cited Ukrinform? Fred something? Having trouble recalling it at the moment. Anyway, he’d probably cite this very article explaining how it was an honest attempt, etc.

Here is Zelensky, not me, telling everyone that EU cannot be a mediator between Russia and Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2064384943686300076

Funny how Euros were struggling as it is with the subject. Not that they are too upset about the situation though because their “new” proposal consists mostly of points outright rejected by Russia years ago, some as far as prior to the war even began:

Joint E3 Leaders’ Statement with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine: 7 June 2026

Prime Minister Keir Starmer of the United Kingdom, President Emmanuel Macron of France, and Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany met with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine.

www.gov.uk

Point one, immediate ceasefire. Point two, Ukraine in NATO. Point three, deployment of multinational force to Ukraine (the coalition of the willing). Point four, Russian assets will remain frozen. Point five, security guarantees for themselves (for the coalition of the willing).

They talk about the European security interests that must be safeguarded (last point). This thing had always puzzled me. They (and we, as a group) always talk about our interests Why, at the same time, such a great disregard for the interests of others? Therein lies the problem, everyone has interests and security concerns that they find to be fully legit. It appears to be, for the time being, that the most reasonable solution to this disconnect everyone sees is fighting it out. So here we are, fighting it out. Everyone’s sunk costs keep mounting, everyone believes they can get better results tomorrow or next month and if not, next year must be it. All that is left to do is wait and see.

Here is Stubb’s persepctive:

Stubb names 7 key facts showing Ukraine gains upper hand on battlefield

Read more

newsukraine.rbc.ua

Point one, Ukraine has been killing and wounding around 35,000 Russian troops every month for the last six. At least he switched from purely killing this many. I posted on the numbers the other day.

Point two, Russia can recruit only 27,000 a month. I also addressed this in my recent post (the article from Kluge and lemming interpretation of the headline). Assuming points one and two are true, how many of the 35K are actually killed, how many severely wounded, lightly wounded, etc. the difference between the two numbers as not as big as he portrays it to be even given the narrative he is pushing.

Point three, loss ratio has widened from three Russian losses to every Ukrainian to 8:1 in Ukrainian favour. Well, this is one of the things I commented on as well, with Ukraine locally (but more intensely) counterattacking, we are always led to believe that they do so to inflict even more losses on the Russians than they were during a more defending posture. We also know that the overall loss ratio is below 1:3 and is closer to 1:2 (multiple previous citations here, including estimates by Tatarigami and others, some land just above, some just below).

Point four, 95% of the losses come from drone and missile strikes, less man-to-man engagement. While drone (FPV) usage is about equal, Russia most definitely sends more missiles and the bombs that Ukraine does not use at all, comparatively speaking (ie, Ukrainian bombs would probably fall within a margin of error compared to the Russian use (I am not betting my last on this statement, but my point is clear):



Point five, kill zone of 20-40 km with fatality rate of 95% for the entrants, Russia sends 1-7 men groups, Ukraine does not. Of course they don’t, they must land invisibly from the air in the areas they attack (probably which is why no losses too).

Point six, Ukraine sent more drones and missiles to Russia than Russia could intercept. Well, Russia has been doing it to Ukraine every single month of the war that had just marked the WW1 stamp on the timeline or so I hear and the margin of those not intercepted is usually much higher.

Point seven, Ukraine took more territory in April than it lost for the first time since the war began. Look, I am not making this shit up, it is in the article (and I have seen it in others, this one is just easier to reference without paywalls and such).

Very reasonable thoughts and arguments, so much so that if anyone posted similar rubbish favouring Russians, they would be (and fairly so) obliterated with replies insisting otherwise. But here we are.

The biggest take away from Stubb, in my opinion, that is probably an honest assessment:

Stubb is skeptical of concerns that Russia could test NATO Article 5 after the war in Ukraine ends. "Why would Russia test Article 5 if it has failed to conquer Ukraine in four years?" the Finnish president said.[…]

"People just need to calm down. I understand the public debate, but I see all the intelligence reports — I read them very carefully," he stressed.

I have some things that didn’t happen to add, but I will pass today.