The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

This is about a month woth of info, unfortunately it took me a while. While Russia's offensive has clearly begun and is making gains in mostly the areas we would expect, so far it's been slow. The goals are predictable, the main target is the rest of Donetsk region, where Russia has steadily pushed towards Slavyansk from the east, and has resumed offensive actions north and west of Pokrovsk. In Zaporozhye things have slowed down since last year, and I wouldn't be surprised if this area remains slow for the next several months, only to re-activate later in the year when Ukraine is already distracted elsewhere. Lastly Russian advances in the border areas continue, and something like a border buffer zone is starting to emerge. Note it's far too shallow to be substantial, and with increase in drone range, it probably can't accomplish it's officially stated purpose of protecting Russian border areas. On the other hand it does force Ukraine to pull resources to those areas or face problems. And I think this is the real purpose of the exercise.

Northern Sumy-Chernigov area.

Reportedly Russian strikes in and around Shostka have gotten so bad that Ukrainian authorities are urging locals to evacuate. As an illustration the second link has footage of a Russian strike on a gas station in Shostka, the third link a Shahed strike.


Russia takes out allegedly an Israeli Rada radar, Chernigov region. There were reports of these radars being supplied to Ukraine.


Russian Shahed engages a Ukrainian pickup in Chernigov region. This has been the pattern lately where some portion of Shahed waves are proper loitering munitions, and engage air defense systems that try to shoot down the drones.


Sumy area.

Russia has expanded offensive action in this area. Russian forces have broken into Miropol'ye, though the village remains contested. South of there Russian forces have taken Taratutino and Novodmitrovka, and entered Ryasnoe. They've also taken some ground around them. From the north Russian forces continue a slow push, gaining ground near Kondratovka, and taking Korchakovka.


Russian bomb strike on a dam in Sumy region, unclear what location.


Russian strikes on Miropol'ye. Sumy region.


Ukraine is expanding drone netting on roads around Sumy. In principle the front is moving towards the city, but in practice at a glacial pace.


Russian battlegroup north with a wire-guided drone carrying 35kms of wire.


Khar'kov-Volchansk area.

Russian forces are moving to secure everything north of the Volch'ya river. They've entered Efremovka/Okhrimovka, and they've taken Pokalyano, Zybino, and Bochkovo. From the east they've taken Zemlyanki and are attacking Budarki. You'll note that some of these villages are south of the river. In other words, Russia isn't necessarily relying on the river as a geographic barrier. This section of the front line is also close to merging with the section north-west of the Oskol river where Russian forces are now closer to each other, than they are to the Oskol (the distance from Topoli to Shevyakovka vs the distance from Shevyakovka to Zemlyanki). Lastly north-west of Kharkov Russian forces took the village of Veterinarnoe, opening a new area across the border.


Russian strikes on Ukrainian pickups and UGVs around Volchansk.


Russia's 92nd Engineers Rgt putting together UGVs in the Kharkov area.


Russian strike on a Ukrainian munition storage in Karaichnoe village.


Russia attempted to take out the dam of the Pechenega reservoir but apparently failed.


Kupyansk area.

Inside Kupyansk Russia is back on the offensive across the Oskol regaining areas on the north side of town. East of Kupyansk Russia has continued to push forward in Podoly. In Kurilovka Russia continues to expand their area of control, and Russian penetrations in Kupyansk-Uzlovoy also continue.


Russian drone strike on a Ukrainian boat, reportedly on the Oskol.


Russia hit a industrial enterprise in Velikiy Burluk.


Russia's 273rd Arty Operating Uragan-1 MLRS on the Kupyansk axis.


Russian drone defense teams, Kharkov region.


Russian Chelnok UGV in service, Kharkov region.


Oskol front.

Ukraine counter-attacked retaing a trench line near Lozovoe. Meanwhile Russian forces have again taken some ground near Grekovka.


Krasniy Liman.

Ukrainian forces have regained ground in Drobyshevo and now hold most of the village. They're also attempting counter-attacks eastward, but that hasn't prevented Russian gains in that area. In the woods south of Krasniy Liman Ukrainian infiltrators penetrated up to Dibrova again. Most of the forest south of Liman remains a grey area. Towards Yampol' Ukrainian counter-attacks gained ground in Ozerskoe, but then lost it again, and Russia has mopped up remaining Ukrainian forces in Yampol'.


Russian bomb strikes on Krasniy Liman. These are FAB-3000s.


Russia's 59th Tank Rgt using captured Ukrainian Vampire drones, in the Krasniy Liman area.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Seversk-Nikolaevka axis.

Russian forces continue to advance in this area. They've taken Kaleniki and Krivaya Luka. They've also continued to advance westward south of Ray-Aleksandrovka, taking chunks of country-side and forest and entering the outskirts of the village. Ukraine meanwhile counter-attacked in Ozernoe trying to break through to some of their encircled forces in Yampol'. However they didn't reach them and Russia appears to have finished mopping up Yampol', finally securing it fully.


Russian bomb strikes on Slavyansk.


Druzhkovka area.

Russian forces have taken Min'kovka and Dibrova, and continue to advance towards the canal. Russian forces are not close to Yurkovka, the last village before Nikolaevka from the south. Some Russian elements are now crossing the canal in this area. Russian forces also inch forward near Novomarkovo.


Russian strike on a Bogdana howitzer west of Kramatorsk.


Russian strikes on a factory in Druzhkovka.


Russian FPV drone strike on a pickup in Druzhkovka. This is during the ceasefire period.


Russian drone strike takes a Ukrainian military car in Kramatorsk.


Russia strikes on Kramatorsk. They hit a gas station and one of the strikes was a surface-surface S-300.


Konstantinovka area.

Russian forces are finally pushing forward with a western envelopment of Konstantinovka. They've taken Illinovka, are pushing forward in Dolgaya Balka, and have entered Konstantinovka from a new approach, from the west. There are also continued attempts to enter from the east, but I suspect they're going to be less successful, especially if prior history is any indication.


Russian mechanized attacks have re-appeared in this sector from Chasov Yar towards Konstantinovka.


Russian drones hitting Ukrainian Baba Yaga drones over Konstantinovka. Operations like these are key to Russian successes on the front line.


Russian drone strikes on Ukrainian positions in and around Konstantinovka.


Russian bomb strikes including some FAB-3000s, Konstantinovka.


Russian drone strikes on Ukrainian motorbikes and infantry, and a FAB-3000 strike at the end, Konstantinovka.


A destroyed Ukrainian Roshel Senator on the road through Alekseevo-Druzhkovka.


Destroyed Ukrainian UGVs on the road near Konstantinovka. These vehicles are becoming steadily more common, but they're not the majority of front line logistics yet. It's likely they will get there eventually, and of course with the extension of drone range, it means that manned logistics tens of kms behind front lines can also get hit.


Pokrovsk area.

Near Toretskoe Russian forces expanded eastward, taking the northern shore of the pond and also pushing eastward out of Novopavlovka. In principle further advances in this direction would support a continuing envelopment of Konstantinovka from the west. Russian troops are continuing efforts to push northward towards Kucherov Yar. Westward Russian troops have gained ground north-east and south of Biletskoe and taken a chunk of the town, but then Ukrainian troops re-entered all ares of the town. Almost all of Biletskoe is now a grey zone, except a small piece of of Ukrainian held area to the north-west. South of there Russian forces hold quite a bit of ground separating the mine complex from Biletskoe. Around Grishino Russian forces have taken Novoaleksandrovka, and pushed west along a wide front. They've also cleared the area north-west of Kotlino. Meanwhile recent Russian drone strikes reveal a continued Ukrainian presence in the western part of Rodinskoe, and in the mine complex west of it.


Russian strike on Ukrainian UGVs in the Pokrovsk area.


Russian strikes near Belitskoe.


Russian FAB-500 strikes near Dobropol'ye.


Russian remote minelaying in the Dobropol'ye direction.


Some footage of Dobropol'ye, the town is still in relatively intact shape.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Dnepropetrovsk axis.

Russia has finally captured Aleksandrograd, but Ukrainian counter-attacks continue to penetrate towards Voznesenka. In Novopavlovka Russia is gaining ground again after losing some earlier. Overall this area remains fairly static.


A burning Ukrainian BTR-4, Dnepropetrovsk region.


Russia hits a Caesar howitzer, near Ukrainka village, Dnepropetrovsk region.


Eastern Zaporozhye.

From the north side back and forth fighting continues with minimal changes. Ukraine expanded the grey zone slightly re-entering Novonikolaevka. Russia regained some ground west of Solodkoe. Russian forces also took Berezovoe and Ternovoe. West of Gulyaypole Russia has extended the grey zone north and south of Gulyaypol'skoe, but hasnt' managed to consolidate, and Ukrainian elements continue to penetrate towards Zheleznodorozhnoe/Zaliznichnoe.


Russian forces take out a PzH-2000.


Russian 2S1 with log armor.


Zaporozhye.

Ukraine's counter-offensive in this area has gained quite a bit of ground. Ukrainian forces recaptured most of Primorskoye, parts of Stepnogorsk, and are threatening to drive Russia back across the lowlands into Plavni. Unlike eastern Zaporozhye, here Ukraine is well on track to undoing all Russian gains of '25. This is a significant success as it makes it much harder for Russia to cut the second supply line to Orekhov. East of there Ukrainian forces have re-entered Belogor'ye, contesting the village again.


Russian strikes on Orekhov.


Russian air defense drones engaging Ukrainian drones over Orekhov.


Russia hits an M109 in cover, on the Zaporozhye axis. They used the first few drones to pick apart the cover, and then burn down the howitzer.


Russian strikes on a Ukrainian Grad in the Zaporozhye area. Note how they carefully select the fuel tank, and then the rockets.


Russian strikes on Ukrainian light vehicles in the Zaporozhye area.


Ukraine hits what appears to be a Tor-M2KM decoy in the Zaporozhye area.


Russian Osa-AKM in the Zaporozhye area doing drone defense work.


Ukraine putting up anti-drone nettings along roads in Zaporozhye region.


Russian Tor-M2 operating in the Zaporozhye area.


Dnepr front.


Russian FPV drone hit a passenger train in Kherson region.


Russia's 299th VDV Rgt has received up-armor kits for their BMD-2s.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Black Sea/Crimea.

A Ukrainian unmanned boat attempts an attack on a tanker near Novorossiysk.


Ukraine takes out 2 Russian unmanned boats near Odessa. The first link's unmanned boat appears to carry some sort of satcom antenna.


Another bundle of Ukrainian strikes on targets in Crimea. They hit two large landing ships, the Yury Ivanov intelligence ship, the Lukomka training center, a MiG-31, a radar, a radar decoy, and a couple of military installations. We don't have the actual video, just screenshots, for most of this. So it's hard to judge the end result.


Two Ukrainian unmanned boats attacked Russian coast guard vessels in the Kerch strait. Outcome is unclear, but it seems likely at least one hit. Also one of the boats fired a MLRS salvo.


Ukrainian drones target 3 Russian small boats, and a Be-12 airplane.


A Ukrainian unmanned boat launches an air defense drone.


Russian Lancet strike on a Ukrainian unmanned boat in the Black Sea and an FPV drone strike on a Ukrainian unmanned boats near Crimean coast.


Ukrainian drones hit hangars where reportedly Iskander TELs are housed. But these hangars are concrete, and presumably hardened. It seems unlikely much damage resulted from this.


Russian MANPADS misses a drone over Crimea.


Russian drone defense teams in Crimea. Note the AK-630s being used from land.


Russian air defense drones in action, Crimea.


Ukrainian drones hit Dzhankoy and Armyansk, Crimea. The target was allegedly an FSB headquarters. Reportedly 5 civilians were killed.


AMK is reporting that the threat and damage from Ukrainian drone strikes has led to a drastic reduction in Russian Iskander launches from Crimea. While I don't have the stats to back up his claim, the anectodal evidence tracks. We saw Ukrainian strikes on Russian missile TELs fairly recently.


Russian Ka-29 with marks for destroyed Ukrainian unmanned boats. This is a dangerous and questinable use of these aging birds.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Strikes.

There has been a recent series of Russian strikes on gas stations in Ukraine. This comes as Russia has also significantly ramped up drone strikes into Ukraine in volume. The pattern of strikes on locomotive also continues.


Russian strikes on Kiev. Targets unclear. It does appear that one of the strikes was an attempt to take out an adviser of Ukraine's Minister of Defense. He was wounded and his house destroyed.


A Ukrainian Hellfire or Longbow intercepts a Russian drone over Kiev.


Russian strikes on Belyay Tserkov', Kiev region.


Russia hit a bus depot in Borispol', Kiev region.


Russian strikes on Chernigov. Targets include the local powerplant.


Russia hit a fuel storage facility in Chernigov region. Note the thermals let them pick out the tanks with fuel in them.


Russian strikes hit a Ukrainian gas extraction facility in Sumy region.


Russia hit Kharkov. V2U drones hit gas stations in Kharkov, reportedly 9 over 2 days, and a locomotive depot. A new unknown UAV type was seen over Kharkov, possibly Parodiya decoys. Links represent at least 3 waves of strikes.


Russian strikes on Malaya Danilovka, outskirts of Kharkov. The target apparently was a munition storage facility.


Ukrainian interceptor drone over Kharkov catches up to a Russian inbound.


Russia hit Lyubotin, west of Khar'kov.


Russia hit Chuguev in Kharkov region, reportedly Iskanders were used. The target may have been a fuel equipment factory.


Russian strikes hit Bogodukhov, Kharkov region.


Russia hit Merefa, Kharkov region. Targets unclear, but it looks like they hit residential buildings.


Russian Lancet strike on a Ukrainian vehicle, allegedly a Caesar howitzer, though I can't really make it out. Allegedly this is a new Lancet variant with intelligent target recognition, but we don't have a view from the drone's point of view.


Russia hit a Naftogaz target in Poltava region.


Russia hit Dnepropetrovsk. Targets include the dorms of the state university in Dnepropetrovsk, a storage facility belonging to the supermarket company VARUS, the Priazovskiy university, the Vinly wallpaper factory, a chemical plant, a steel pipe factory, a former rocket engine testing facility, the ATP-32 bus depot, a vehicle inspection station, and a fuel storage facility. There are also unconfirmed reports of a strike hitting rail infrastructure. Links represent at least 7 separate waves of strikes. During one of the strikes a Russian recon drone was seen over the city. It's clear that Dnepropetrovsk has been the absolute focus of Russian strikes recently. It got hit more and harder than just about anywhere else. It's not clear why all the attention. It is clear that


During the recent strikes in Dnepropetrovsk, Ukraine used an AIM-180-C-8. This is an important details and reveals what version of the AMRAAM Ukraine is using.


Ukrainian MANPADS team engaging Russian drones in Dnepropetrovsk. Given where they're operating from it's likely anything they bring down will fall on the city.


Russia took out a MAN truck carrying an FV105 APC, near Pavlograd, ~80kms from the front line.


Russia hit a substation in Shahterskoe, eastern Dnepropetrovsk region.


Russia hit a locomotive near Krivoy Rog.


Russia hit a gas station and some civilian trucks on the road near Krivoy Rog. It's unclear if the trucks were an intended target or just collateral damage. Russia has targeted rail infrastructure, but there hasn't been a systematic strike campaign on civilian trucks in the rear. This could be because of lack of ability or they don't consider them a target.


Russia hit a substation near Krivoy Rog.


Russia hit Krivoy Rog. Targets include a fuel storage facility.


Russia hit Cherkasy.


Russian strikes on Zaporozhye. Targets include some sort of industrial object. Links represent at least 3 separate waves of strikes. One strike was by a Tornado-S.


Russian strikes on Vol'nyansk, Zaporozhye region.


Russia hit Nikolaev. Targets reportedly include a substation, and other energy infrastructure.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Russia hit Odessa. Targets include the port, a cable factory, storage facilities of the Kopeyka supermarket, and two Ukrainian small patrol boats in the harbor. Links represent at least 3 separate waves of strikes.


Russia hit Izmail. Targets include a storage facility and the port. There are also unconfirmed reports of a ship being damaged. Links represent at least two separate waves.


Russia hit Chernomorsk, targets include storage facilities for cooking oil, which now spills into the sea.


There are conflicting reports that British jets out of Romania may have intercepted Russian drones over Ukraine, because they were heading towards Romania. Another version is that they intercepted them once they entered Romanian airspace.


Russia hit Ternopol'. Targets include the Orion factory and storage facilities.


Russia hit a substation in Zhitomyr region near Kvitnevo.


Ukrainian drone interceptor manages to catch up to a Russian jet-powered Geranium-4 drone. Drone interceptor technology is clearly improving.


Ukraine drone defense teams firing.


A Russian drone attempts to hit a Ukrainian drone defense team but it appears the warhead fails to detonate.


A look at the Ukrainian An-28 modified into a drone hunter. We've seen this aircraft before.


Ukrainian MiG-29 doing drone defense work near Rovno.


A look at a laser drone defense system being tested in Ukraine and a laser sight being used by Ukrainian drone defense teams.


During a recent attack mass use of Parodiya drone decoys by Russia was reported.


Russian drone ports are expanding, and it appears they're adding covered launch facilities to Khalino in Kursk region, an airbase in Orlov region, and Shatalovo airbase in Smolensk region. Some are being re-tooled for Shahed-4 and 5 drones.


It appears during a recent strike 6 Ukrainian drones were in Latvian airspace, and one allegedly went down and hit a train, another hit a fuel storage facility. Such "accuracy" raises questions about what happened. It almost looks as if Russia somehow managed to hijack the drones and hit targets inside Latvia with them. Russia claims the drones were detected by the VVS. But of course there is another scenario. Enough drones have crashed inside Russia to where Russia should have some intact examples, or enough parts to make them. So it's possible this was a pair of deliberate attacks by Russia as a shot across the bow. Note the fuel storage facility in question is ~40 kms from the Russian border, making it unlikely it came from Russian airspace by accident. Last but not least some sources claim the train fire was unrelated to this incident.


Ukraine hit Moscow, either a Ukrainian UAV or Russian air defenses hit a residential high rise. The attack allegedly involved ~250 drones.


Ukraine hit Primorsk again. At least some of Ukraine's drones appeared to have entered Estonian airspace. Targets reportedly include a project 22800 small missile ship, and an oil tanker.


Ukraine hit Sterlitamak, targeting a local chemical plant.


Ukrainian strikes in the Belgorod border area continue, wounding 6 civilians in a series of strikes. It's not immediately clear how much is collateral damage, and how much is deliberate.


Ukraine hit the village of Razumnoe, Belgorod border region. This is during the ceasefire. 5 civilians are reported wounded.


Ukraine hit an oil refinery and pumping station in Perm'. They damaged the fuel tanks and the pumping station. The refinery was hit repeatedly.


Ukraine hit Cheboksary, in Chuvashiya. The target was apparently the VNIIR Progress factory, but they also hit a residential building. It's interesting that the factory was protected by anti-drone cages. Munitions used included FP-1 and An-196 drones and Flamingo missiles. 5 out of 6 of the latter were allegedly intercepted, and damage does appear to be relatively limited.


Ukraine hit a oil storage facility in Tuapse causing a massive fire, and a large oil spill. The facility was hit at least 4 times, and fires still burn. Unlike many previous strikes, this one seems to have caused an ecological disaster.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Ukraine hit the Atlant Aero factory in Taganrog. The facility reportedly manufactures Molniya drones.


Ukraine hit a pumping station in Nizhegorodskaya region.


A residential building partially collapsed from a Ukrainian drone strike in Syzran'.


A Ukrainian drone hit the roof of a residential building in Samara.


Ukraine hit an Mi-28N and an Mi-8 at the Kremniy-El airfield, in Voronezh region, ~150kms from the front line. Allegedly RAM-2 drones were used. Another Ukrainian UAV provided BDA footage.


A Ukrainian UAV attempts to attack a Russian military column near Mariupol'. This is approximately 100 kms from the front line.


Ukraine hit an airbase near Chelyabinsk where it appears they may have damaged an Su-57 and an Su-34. Note both aircraft moved after the strike, but this doesn't indicate either outcome. Confirmation is absent.


Ukraine hit Yekaterinburg, one residential building was damaged.


Ukraine hit Novocherkassk.


Ukraine hit Yeysk, reportedly hitting the port.


There are reports that Ukraine hit the FSB headquarters in the village of Schalivtsevo, Kherson region. Fires burn there and Ukraine did hit something.


Ukraine hit Rosov-na-Donu, targets include the NTC Radar factory.


Ukraine hit an administration building in Markovo, Lugansk region.


Ukrainian drones hit Donetsk. Targets hit include a residential building, the Donetsk airport (now a Russian drone port) and a bus depot. Links represent at least two waves of strikes.


Ukraine hit Yasinovataya, near Donetsk, killing 2 and wounding 7 civilians. Targets unclear.


Ukraine hit a bus and a van in Belgorod region. Reportedly 3 civilians were killed and 8 wounded on the bus, 1 killed and 2 wounded in the van.


Ukraine hit a fire truck in Lugansk region that was reportedly putting out a grass fire.


A Ukrainian FP-1 drone over Samara was seen maneuvering, suggesting Starlink may be now enabled over Russia for Ukrainian terminals.


Ukrainian drones being intercepted over Kaspiysk. It's likely they were targeting Caspian Flotilla facilities or assets. We also have a shot of a Ukrainian drone hitting a Russian small missile ship in the Caspian, likely part of the same strike.


Russian interceptor drone and SAMs at work, Belgorod region.


Russian drone defense teams intercepting a drone near Donetsk.


Russian drone defense teams in Donetsk region. They're National Guard, but the curious part is their armament. They're armed with DP-27s, antique pre-WWII machineguns. Russia did capture substantial stores in Artemovsk/Bakhmut, and I wouldn't be surprised if Russia had some quantity stored away domestically too, but they're a poor choice, to put it mildly.


Russian drone defense teams in action, Zaporozhye. This is reportedly BARS-32 at work.


Russian drone defense pickup with an automated turret.


Russian Ka-52 downing an FP-1 drone in Moscow region.


Drone defense teams from the Russian BARS Sarmat with a quad-barreled HMG.


There has been a substantial expansion of Ukrainian Starlink supported drones. So far Russia doesn't have a good answer. The obvious move would be to copy Ukraine's audio-sensor approach and mobile drone defense teams, from back when Ukraine still had the manpower to put enough of them to work.


Ukrainian FP-2 drones with Starlink being prepared for launch.


During recent days we got footage from an unknown Russian air defense drone, being used by Rubicon center. This one has higher speed.


Another look at the new Russian Lis-2 air defense drone.


German Anubis drones have been spotted in Ukrainian service.


Russia is forming additional drone defense teams from reservists in Leningrad region.


Russian Yelka air defense drones on a mast.


Russia's Kochevnik air defense team still using their laser. They appear to be the only ones.


We have our first sighting of a Russian FrankenSAM, an Ural truck carrying R-77-1 AAMs.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Interesting bits.

Russian Osa-AKM and Tor-M2 SAMs failing to intercept a Ukrainian drone, and then getting hit. It appears even fairly advanced traditional SAMs struggle with drones.


Ukrainian STASH SAMs. It's apparently a ZiL trailer, a Rada raider, and Hellfire missiles.


Another couple of variants of the Courier UGV, one making holes to put land mines into the other laying mines, and covered by a anti-drone shed.


A look at a rare 2B26 Grad variant. It got factory armor kits for the cabin, and has a tent frame to put over the tubes to masquerade as a transport truck.


A look at a large Ukrainian underground base. We've seen something similar from Russia before.


Ukraine's 8th SF Rgt with a SISU GTP MRAP.


Ukrainian Leo-1 from the 5th Mech Bde.


Reportedly the 44th and 60th Arty Bdes have received the Bogdana-BG, the 152nd Air Mobile Bde got the 2S22 Bogdana, and the 20th Bde got the DITA.


A Ukrainian BMP-1 from the 115th Mech Bde.


Reportedly Fire Point supplied 12 thousand FP-1 and FP-2 drones to Ukraine.


The US is apparently selling 1532 JDAM-ER bombs to Ukraine.


A new Ukrainian APC has been displayed, based on the M113. It's called the Skif (Scythian). It's not clear if this is an upgrade of existing M113s or an entirely new vehicle.


Reportedly Belgium intends to hand over the rest of their F-16s to Ukraine. This is 53 aircraft, some of which were already promised, but as far as we know none were actually handed over.


Ukraine has reportedly received 5 Mediguard CASEVAC vehicles from Germany.


There appears to be an increase in the volume of Russian bomb strikes. Russia is now dropping 6 gliding bombs at a time, and there are reports suggesting that Russia will be increasing the total output.


Continued expansion of Russian drone manufacturing at Alabuga is reported. New buildings are going up.


Russia has declared a cease-fire in Ukraine on May 8th and 9th, while threatening a missile strike on the center of Kiev if Ukraine carries out a strike on Victory Day celebrations. Ukraine responded by announcing a ceasefire from the night of May 5-6th onward, with mirror strikes to any Russian violations. Essentially Ukraine is moving to turn a 2 day ceasefire into a 4 day ceasefire.


Russia and Ukraine did 2 POW swaps, 193 for 193 and 175 for 175. The last 7 Russian civilians from Kursk region were also returned in the latter exchange.


Based on a review of the DPRK memorial, at least 1144 DPRK service members were killed fighting in Kursk region.


There are reports that Russian maritime traffic from Ust'-Luga and Primorsk is back to normal.


Russian sources report that the average age of people enlisting is now 38.

 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
In regard to the enlistment is there information on the time of service ? there are claims of troops being forcibly required to re-enlist once once initial contracted service time has been served. I'm not sure if the initial prisoners who signed up are allowed to rejoin the Russian community after a short service ,it could be an interesting demographic exercise as to where the enlistments and casualties have come from
 

rsemmes

Active Member
The Greek defence minister, Nikos Dendias, said the drone, suspected to be of Ukrainian origin, almost certainly came from “a foreign state” although he stopped short of identifying the country.

Does that mean that every cruise ship in the Mediterranean (and the Baltic) is at risk of being sunk by Ukraine? Someone mentioned anything about the risks of escalation?
It feels good to be in the Ukrainian side.
 

rsemmes

Active Member
Talking about those attacks against Dnepropetrovsk ...

I have been wondering why Russia never started a campaign against Jarkov: power, rail and factories, turning it into a burden instead of an asset.
It is closer to the front, Ukraine cannot "abandon" the city, it will have to divert resources, beginning with AD, that would be "easier" to target.
High value and targets of opportunity all over the country yes, but couldn't spare some resources for a continuous attack against a target that Ukraine has to defend?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
In regard to the enlistment is there information on the time of service ? there are claims of troops being forcibly required to re-enlist once once initial contracted service time has been served. I'm not sure if the initial prisoners who signed up are allowed to rejoin the Russian community after a short service ,it could be an interesting demographic exercise as to where the enlistments and casualties have come from
I don't think there is good statistical data, only anecdotal. I know some people are stop-lossed, meaning their service obligation is automatically extended to the end of the war. This is less of a forced re-enlistment and more of a centralized policy. I know there are individual cases of people being pressured to re-enlist by their command. I also know there are people who do one tour and get out. There are also people who get out, spend some time out, and then re-enlist. I couldn't tell you what the proportions are, only that all of these are happening. Generally it seems the 6 month contracts are being allowed to leave at the end of their service. With 1 year contracts some are stop-lossed and some aren't. All longer contracts seem to be stop-lossed until the end of the war. Some advertisement for enlistment I've seen even openly said "1 year contract but with automatic prolongation until the end of the war".

Talking about those attacks against Dnepropetrovsk ...

I have been wondering why Russia never started a campaign against Jarkov: power, rail and factories, turning it into a burden instead of an asset.
It is closer to the front, Ukraine cannot "abandon" the city, it will have to divert resources, beginning with AD, that would be "easier" to target.
High value and targets of opportunity all over the country yes, but couldn't spare some resources for a continuous attack against a target that Ukraine has to defend?
Good question. I suspect Russian strikes on Dnepropetrovsk are aimed at military logistics for the Eastern Zaporozhye and Donetsk region. Russia has been taking bites along the border in Kharkov region but they're all quite small so far. No real effort to take substantial ground there other than the fighting around Volchansk, and Kupyansk. Definitely no real threat to Kharkov itself.

EDIT: For some reason Greek and Turkish sources are talking about a Russian Su-57 downing a Saab 340 AEW in Ukraine. Russian sources are either silent, at a loss, or just quoting those reports.

 
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