Beltrami2005
New Member
Russia rides into battle on donkys...its a threat on the level of iran and north korea. Can it do damage? Yes. Is it manageable? Yes.
The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
Indeed.
Well, having been fighting for nearly 4 years now and progressing at snail, though increasing, pace with the reported amount of casualties and sustaining the astronomical costs of the war, while still signing up volunteers, enough to replace the losses and form new reserves, I’d say the motivation is there and, at least for now, there are no signs that it is going to fade in the near future.
In another post, you talk about some drone production, artillery shells, etc. What you missed in your post that Fedorov also said was that there are over 2 million draft dodgers and some 200,000 deserters. I don’t know about the draft dodgers, but the AWOL numbers are surely significantly higher than the 200K he mentioned. From one of my earlier posts at the end of last summer:
There were many more people going AWOL between July 2025 and now. The last reported number was some 21,000 for October alone that I can remember and talked about it here previously (they stopped reporting that number since then). The overall number is probably closer to 300K. Mathematically speaking, the limit of enlisting new personnel into the UA armed forces is approaching zero. Whether slowly or not, we don’t know. Just think about it: about one third of all drafted and enlisted personnel are deserters, while there are at least 3 to 4 times as many draft dodgers as there are people currently serving in Ukraine (including foreign volunteers).
So the motivation you are referring to is very selective and questionable and Ukrainians overall are definitely not “extremely highly motivated” as you think they are. It could not be more clear from the data I provided above alone.
Consider that Ukraine also offered roughly equivalent bonuses and payments to the younger men, those below the age of forced mobilization, and it failed miserably. They signed up less people in 8 or whatever it was months than there are those from the same age group leaving the country each month. All of this was discussed here previously and it is not a fairy tale.
See, I find it hard to follow your line of thinking. You basically refer to what you think rather than what, at the very least, appears to be happening on the ground in both countries, supported by facts and/or reports with a fair or better degree of reliability. Or so it seems.
And back to drones you had mentioned in the other post. Whether it is true or not is not necessarily relevant (and it probably isn’t coming form a UA official (as it equally would not be if it was coming from a Russian official)). What matters is that all more or less recent reports (and at the very least some were cited and discussed here previously) indicate that Russia has advantage in that department and that goes for numbers, tech, trained (and in training) units and so on. So again, I do not see where your optimism (or conviction, to be more precise) is coming from, but, maybe, reading propaganda from one side and that being Ukraine and lemming-type reports on social or other media.
Will it? Is that some fact based on evidence? Is that what the Ukrainians actually know for a fact (or even believe), as you imply, or is that what you think/believe? If the latter, what is your rationale for this belief?
About the only thing the wars you mentioned have in common with the current one discussed here is that they are all wars. The biggest difference, however, is that Russia has a plan and strategy of attrition which they follow through with (perhaps similar to the other wars you mentioned). What is not different for Ukraine and us (the supporters) is that neither has any strategy, including exit. I have discussed it in a fair bit of detail before and won’t go into it again.
As for losing and winning… yes, Ukraine is currently losing snd Russia is currently winning. I may be missing something, but I cannot see any other way of looking at it. What’s to come could be debated, sure. To count on some collapse of the Russian Federation is like planning your (winning!) way out based on the “act of god” or “force majeure” clause. It’s ridiculous. There are no signs that such an event is going to take place anytime soon; though, by definition, it never is. And I mean none.
Having said that, winning the war does not mean actually winning in the strategic sense. I, again, had already talked about it previously and more than once. Ukraine is most likely going to lose and Russia is going to win, but both are losers. One more than the other (those that are new can go back and search why I think this is the case in my previous posts and I have been very consistent and explained it more than once, even when most thought Ukraine was actually winning). The biggest thing here is that there is a lot more uncertainty with Russia here than with Ukraine as far as the future is concerned. To note, less (even a lot less) uncertainty does not guarantee a better outcome. In my view it simply means that Ukraine’s bleak future is much more probable than Russia’s (and there are many more contingencies today than last year, for example, to talk about the Russian future with any degree of certainty). Again, I explained many times before why I think this is the case. Both would be better off today if they could agree to terms and avoid the war. It is not only Ukraine that had to agree to terms, however, on that side of the aisle and it is still the case.
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
The most concerning part, currently:
In one of my recent posts, reflecting on this very thing, I wrote that the immediate course of action is to run the water periodically and drain all pipes that are in risk of being frozen, if possible. Since the level of ingenuity is not as high as being reported, I have no idea why this was not widely advertised (by the authorities) to be the course of action as this is the most foreseeable and most devastating course of events in the circumstances. Surely and understandably, there are people who cannot do any of it themselves for various reasons, but those should have been helped by neighbors and/or authorities. As it is, and if it is as wide of occurrence as being reported, this has devastation written all over it. Pipes breaking, flooding, flood freezing, etc. This has potential to get very, very bad.
And more strikes are reportedly expected, while the cold wave is there to stay still. This has potential to leave some cities, or huge chunks of cities, simply without living conditions. Consequences could be very dire indeed. Hope for the best possible outcome for the people and, hopefully, the hype in the media is just that and plenty of exaggeration.
In one of my recent posts, reflecting on this very thing, I wrote that the immediate course of action is to run the water periodically and drain all pipes that are in risk of being frozen, if possible. Since the level of ingenuity is not as high as being reported, I have no idea why this was not widely advertised (by the authorities) to be the course of action as this is the most foreseeable and most devastating course of events in the circumstances. Surely and understandably, there are people who cannot do any of it themselves for various reasons, but those should have been helped by neighbors and/or authorities. As it is, and if it is as wide of occurrence as being reported, this has devastation written all over it. Pipes breaking, flooding, flood freezing, etc. This has potential to get very, very bad.
And more strikes are reportedly expected, while the cold wave is there to stay still. This has potential to leave some cities, or huge chunks of cities, simply without living conditions. Consequences could be very dire indeed. Hope for the best possible outcome for the people and, hopefully, the hype in the media is just that and plenty of exaggeration.
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
But donkeys, mate, haven’t you heard? All manageable too, which is why this war is still ongoing with no end in sight and no one willing to step up and say their piece backed by the imaginary force to stop the evil. All good in his world.
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
Good sign, no doubt. I said before they need find a way to speak to the Russians. My point was that to find a way to directly express the unacceptable terms is not necessary at all as they are heard quite loudly as it is. It appears that the current moods of the Euros and Russians suggest that there is not much to talk about it at this time.
Just as an aside, on a recent holiday in Phuket in Thailand I was amazed at the number of Russian tourists.
I can certainly see the appeal of a tropical beach destination compared to the cold of winter in Europe.
I was taken back by two things, one the number of Russians and two their reluctance to engage with other nationalities.
Oddly enough it really didn’t come across as either arrogant or shyness but something else that I just couldn’t workout.
The fact so many were on holiday suggests there are many Russians who have both money and time to indulge in a trip abroad.
Good luck to them, but I must confess it made for a strange dynamic walking the streets of what is a relaxed and beautiful beautiful part of the world.
Maybe It appears conflict has a long reach.
Cheers S
I can certainly see the appeal of a tropical beach destination compared to the cold of winter in Europe.
I was taken back by two things, one the number of Russians and two their reluctance to engage with other nationalities.
Oddly enough it really didn’t come across as either arrogant or shyness but something else that I just couldn’t workout.
The fact so many were on holiday suggests there are many Russians who have both money and time to indulge in a trip abroad.
Good luck to them, but I must confess it made for a strange dynamic walking the streets of what is a relaxed and beautiful beautiful part of the world.
Maybe It appears conflict has a long reach.
Cheers S