@crest the only ones that can truly say if attacking energy systems versus oil industries is the better route remains between the combatants I'd guess. I certainly understand the strategy each is employing, regards energy/oil systems. As to winning fast enough or altering the wars trajectory, after 4 years Ukraine still keeps hanging around so they have hope at least.
The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
There is no doubt some truth to that but that doesn't mean objective analysis of known information isn't a good predictor of results. Unknown information is always a possibility but it's not exactly a hard barrier given the amount of information that is available. From what I can see it's to greatly simplify things a matter redundancy and capabilities. Russia can take more hits and give more hits the math for a campaign of striking energy production (oil or electric) just doesn't work in Ukraine favour and the evidence we have supports that idea
And yeah Ukraine is hitting way above the belt here, I don't think anyone it even the Russians dispute that, and that's taking into account Russian incompetentance early on.
The question that is relivent here isn't about how well Ukraine has done vs a much larger and objectively competent adversary those accolades have been earned regardless of how this ends. It's a question of how long they can continue to fight and at this point There is also a legitimate question as to the will to continue fighting. As in the national will not just leadership or individual units. I know your passion this issue so don't take that as a insult to the Ukrainian armed forces or population it's not if anything it's a compliment. But one would be wrong to not acknowledge that many in Ukraine now believe the of consequences of continued fighting are not worth the cost to the nation. And the price of peace goes up the longer the war continues.
The message i gather from alot of sources is that the general opinion is without outside manpower and continued Infact increased military and economic support there is no win option. Or at least it is a meaningfully large enough opinion that a strait up military to military victory over Russia is unlikely to occur.
There is a question to be asked about Ukrainians willingness to fight with allied reinforcement but there is little prospect for a strengthening of the Ukrainian army from this point, Infact objectively it is lossing co,bat power at a faster pace then it can replace it. In terms of both quantity and quality tho again that could change with outside support
In short Ukraine may still be willing to fight for years but there not willing to fight alone for that much longer At least not as a traditional military force. Unfortunately it's fairly clear that isn't coming
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KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
I believe this is beyond suspicion and basically factual. To go further, it is the US intel that is providing not only the targeting data, but also plans the routes of attack and basically everything else.
As I wrote in one of my recent post, citing the article I am going to quote below, it is rather clear at this point that Ukraine on its own simply cannot inflict any significant damage to Russia. While they may have the tools, they lack capabilities, including intel, planning, etc. (the same is probably true for the Euros) Every year we get an excellent piece of journalism proving just that. This article from the NYT is, in my opinion, the undoubtedly best piece of journalism on the war in Ukraine in the past long while.
In the Trump administration’s first months, these strikes had been scattershot with negligible impact. Ukrainian military and intelligence agencies were competing, working off different target lists. Russia’s air defenses and electromagnetic jammers rendered energetics facilities virtually impenetrable. At oil refineries, drones were slamming into storage tanks, igniting blasts that grabbed headlines but accomplished little else.
In June, beleaguered U.S. military officers met with their C.I.A. counterparts to help craft a more concerted Ukrainian campaign. It would focus exclusively on oil refineries and, instead of supply tanks, would target the refineries’ Achilles’ heel: A C.I.A. expert had identified a type of coupler that was so hard to replace or repair that a refinery would remain offline for weeks. (To avoid backlash, they would not supply weapons and other equipment that Mr. Vance’s allies wanted for other priorities.)
As the campaign began to show results, Mr. Ratcliffe discussed it with Mr. Trump. The president seemed to listen to him; they had a frequent Sunday tee time. According to U.S. officials, Mr. Trump praised America’s surreptitious role in these blows to Russia’s energy industry. They gave him deniability and leverage, he told Mr. Ratcliffe, as the Russian president continued to “jerk him off.”
The energy strikes would come to cost the Russian economy as much as $75 million a day, according to one U.S. intelligence estimate. The C.I.A. would also be authorized to assist with Ukrainian drone strikes on “shadow fleet” vessels in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. Gas lines would start forming across Russia.
Via the archive: https://archive.ph/XmE5f
In my humble opinion, everyone understands that Ukraine is going to lose (or, rather, had already lost) this war. It is now all about inflicting as much damage on Russia as possible while trying to commit it to best (Ukrainian) capitulation terms possible. Many examples, but here are two from the article cited above since it convenient:
Now the battlefield balance had shifted, and Ukraine, Mr. Kellogg wrote, no longer had a path to victory. Still, he argued, America needed to arm the Ukrainians sufficiently to convince Mr. Putin that his territorial ambitions had hit a wall.
And
General Cavoli would be retiring on July 1, and he sent Mr. Hegseth what American officers called the “beginning of the end” memo. The Ukrainians were slowly losing, he wrote, and if the Pentagon did not provide more munitions, they would lose faster.
That is from Ukraine’s biggest supporters. Like I said, it is all about prolonging the conflict as long as Ukrainians are willing to accept the losses. And, frankly, I am not sure what they (Ukrainians) are thinking.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #13,624
Maybe I'm wrong. Some Russian sources are claiming Ukraine hit a Chevron tanker in the Black Sea. It was one of 4 tankers hit near Novorossiysk. Note it's possible that the tanker in question suffered collateral damage or wasn't the intended target either, and details on the vessel as well as photos confirming the incidents aren't included. The damage is also described as "light". It's even possible that these were drones heading for some other targets in Novorossiysk and merely crashed into the tankers due to EW, or being brought down by AA.
Colonelcassad
Противник атаковал 4 танкера в районе Новороссийска, включая один казахстанский. Танкеры получили несущественные повреждения.
t.me
Colonelcassad
Среди атакованных Украиной танкеров в Черном море оказался танкер принадлежащий американской компании "Шеврон". Танкер получил незначительные повреждения и продолжил путь. Фактически, режим кокаинового фюрера атаковал американский актив.
t.me
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
The Euros are planning to appoint a negotiator “to represent their interests” in talks with Russia.
European governments are pressuring the EU to appoint a negotiator to represent their interests on Ukraine, fearing the United States will stitch up a deal with Russia behind their backs.
Supporters of the plan — including France and Italy — have secured support in the European Commission and among a handful of other countries for the post, according to three diplomats and officials with direct knowledge of the talks who were granted anonymity to speak to POLITICO.
But, they are setting themselves up for failure yet again:
They say Europe can only maintain its red lines, such as Ukraine’s potential future membership in NATO, if the EU has a seat at the table.
Unless the “potential” does all the lifting here.
This is funny too and I had already talked about it:
The unprecedented move would mark a major shift in how Europe engages with the string of bilateral talks brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump, and comes as the continent works to demonstrate it is ready to play a major role in any settlement to end the four-year war.
Both, journalists and politicians, use “Europe” and, in this case, “continent” in a really weird way. Similarly, Merz saying not that long ago that Germany should take the responsibly for security on the entire European continent or something along those lines. Other politicians had done so many times as well. Let’s consider what the European continent is. First and foremost, over 35% of the European landmass lies in Russia. Furthermore, over 70% (or is it 75%?) of the Russian population lives on that very landmass. That makes Russia by far the biggest European country by land (its Asian part excluded), as well as most populous one (every 6th or 7th European lives in Russia?). So all these statements are completely ridiculous and as long this perception persists, there will be no permanent resolution and peace.
I also keep seeing some arguments along the lines of Russia is part of the east, while Japan is a Western country. Anyone who spent even a little bit of time with Japanese and Russians will tell you that it ain’t the case. Literature, music, kitchen, most of the other cultural traits are the proof of the fact. Those living in the Euros’ version of Europe, how many Russian composers and writers/poets can you name versus any “eastern” country, or the “Western Japan” for that matter? I would bet quite a bit more for Russia. There is a reason Russian immigrants, be it of their own will or politically motivated/dissidents, live west of Russia, not east or south of it. And so on.
In other words, so much nonsense that needs to be resolved in order to find peaceful coexistence that goes beyond the war this thread is dedicated to.
I also find it hilarious that the Ukrainians have been made totally European in the past few years, while they are exactly the same as Russians (no, this is not referring to them not existing as people and other ridicules). Anyone who spent any decent amount of time with both should be my witness because this is an undeniable fact - I spent much more time with both than an average person, together, separately, various settings, etc. There is virtually no distinction. Anyway…
Source for the quotes above: EU eyes creation of Putin negotiator role
On a different, but the same note, Germany (and Switzerland) charged more Ukrainians “linked to Russia”.
Germany charges two men in postal bomb plot linked to Russia
Paywalled, but this is the relevant part:
German prosecutors have charged two Ukrainian men with espionage for their role in an alleged Russian plot to blow up postal depots last year.
The men sent parcels containing GPS trackers to identify routes and logistics centres in Germany and eastern Europe that packages used on their way to Ukraine, Germany’s federal prosecutor said.
The prosecutor claims that the cell intended to follow up with packages containing explosives — with the aim of causing widespread destruction to postal and freight facilities.
“Such parcels were to be ignited in Germany or elsewhere on their way to parts of Ukraine not occupied by Russia, causing as much damage as possible in order to undermine the population’s sense of security,” the prosecutor said in a statement.
German security officials described the two Ukrainians, along with a third arrested in Switzerland in connection with the plot, as low-level operatives who were being exploited by a Russian intelligence agency.
Funny how it is mostly Ukrainians being arrested for and charged with acts of espionage and other ways of interference in the western countries, acting on behalf of Russia.
One more thing I have been thinking about a few weeks ago. More nonsense on the subject. Not sure of other “Western countries”, but here in Canada in communities with a significant Ukrainian (pretty much entirely ancestral) presence, there has been a tradition of celebrating what they themselves called the “Ukrainian Christmas” celebrated on January 7. While the idea of calling it the “Ukrainian Christmas” is bizarre, in my opinion, because it is clearly Orthodox, I have been invited to and attended many such community parties on January 7 (even managed to win some prizes, lol). Of course, the lunacy had to come:
“Westernization” and all, screw the traditions (including of completely westernized and only by name Ukrainians, so to speak). From the Alberta Provincial Council of Ukrainian Canadian Congress (from 2010):
“Christmas on January 7 is a centuries old tradition based on the old Julian Calendar that is celebrated by both Ukrainian Orthodox and Catholic Churches,” states Daria Luciw, UCC-APC President. “On behalf of the Board of Ukrainian Canadian Congress - Alberta Provincial Council, I am pleased to extend our heartfelt greetings on the occasion of one of the most significant of Christian holy days – the birth of Our Lord, Jesus Christ.”
Source: https://uccab.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Ukrainian-Christmas-Release-2010.pdf
The appearance of the first star in the night sky was the signal to begin Christmas Eve celebrations on Thursday evening for Ukrainian-Canadian families in Edmonton. January 7 is Christmas Day in the Julian Calendar used by many Ukrainian Christians from the Orthodox and Catholic traditions, along with Christians in several other countries. Typically, Ukrainian families meet for Sviata Vecherya, a 12-course meatless meal honouring the 12 apostles.[…]
Gordon Yaremchuk remembers how family would gather at his grandfather’s rural Alberta home when he was young.
“It was always a clear night and the stars were always out,” he said. “I have this image of a farmhouse and great Ukrainian food, and the Ukrainian language being spoken. It was a different feeling than (Dec. 25) Christmas.”
Celebrating this holiday is a way for him to remember his ancestors and connect with family.
“It’s something we do to honour them, to remember them. It’s just a nice tradition, and the food’s amazing,” Yaremchuk said.
Source: Edmontonians from Ukraine carry on Christmas holiday traditions in January
Weird how one lunatic simply kills (or tries to) centuries-old tradition so important to many. And he does so for some ludicrous reasons too. It is also funny how a president (a Jewish, to boot) of a country changes the date for a religious (orthodox, to boot) holiday. I also wonder what other dates he was talking about… Perhaps the October Revolution celebrated on November 7?
European governments are pressuring the EU to appoint a negotiator to represent their interests on Ukraine, fearing the United States will stitch up a deal with Russia behind their backs.
Supporters of the plan — including France and Italy — have secured support in the European Commission and among a handful of other countries for the post, according to three diplomats and officials with direct knowledge of the talks who were granted anonymity to speak to POLITICO.
But, they are setting themselves up for failure yet again:
They say Europe can only maintain its red lines, such as Ukraine’s potential future membership in NATO, if the EU has a seat at the table.
Unless the “potential” does all the lifting here.
This is funny too and I had already talked about it:
The unprecedented move would mark a major shift in how Europe engages with the string of bilateral talks brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump, and comes as the continent works to demonstrate it is ready to play a major role in any settlement to end the four-year war.
Both, journalists and politicians, use “Europe” and, in this case, “continent” in a really weird way. Similarly, Merz saying not that long ago that Germany should take the responsibly for security on the entire European continent or something along those lines. Other politicians had done so many times as well. Let’s consider what the European continent is. First and foremost, over 35% of the European landmass lies in Russia. Furthermore, over 70% (or is it 75%?) of the Russian population lives on that very landmass. That makes Russia by far the biggest European country by land (its Asian part excluded), as well as most populous one (every 6th or 7th European lives in Russia?). So all these statements are completely ridiculous and as long this perception persists, there will be no permanent resolution and peace.
I also keep seeing some arguments along the lines of Russia is part of the east, while Japan is a Western country. Anyone who spent even a little bit of time with Japanese and Russians will tell you that it ain’t the case. Literature, music, kitchen, most of the other cultural traits are the proof of the fact. Those living in the Euros’ version of Europe, how many Russian composers and writers/poets can you name versus any “eastern” country, or the “Western Japan” for that matter? I would bet quite a bit more for Russia. There is a reason Russian immigrants, be it of their own will or politically motivated/dissidents, live west of Russia, not east or south of it. And so on.
In other words, so much nonsense that needs to be resolved in order to find peaceful coexistence that goes beyond the war this thread is dedicated to.
I also find it hilarious that the Ukrainians have been made totally European in the past few years, while they are exactly the same as Russians (no, this is not referring to them not existing as people and other ridicules). Anyone who spent any decent amount of time with both should be my witness because this is an undeniable fact - I spent much more time with both than an average person, together, separately, various settings, etc. There is virtually no distinction. Anyway…
Source for the quotes above: EU eyes creation of Putin negotiator role
On a different, but the same note, Germany (and Switzerland) charged more Ukrainians “linked to Russia”.
Germany charges two men in postal bomb plot linked to Russia
Paywalled, but this is the relevant part:
German prosecutors have charged two Ukrainian men with espionage for their role in an alleged Russian plot to blow up postal depots last year.
The men sent parcels containing GPS trackers to identify routes and logistics centres in Germany and eastern Europe that packages used on their way to Ukraine, Germany’s federal prosecutor said.
The prosecutor claims that the cell intended to follow up with packages containing explosives — with the aim of causing widespread destruction to postal and freight facilities.
“Such parcels were to be ignited in Germany or elsewhere on their way to parts of Ukraine not occupied by Russia, causing as much damage as possible in order to undermine the population’s sense of security,” the prosecutor said in a statement.
German security officials described the two Ukrainians, along with a third arrested in Switzerland in connection with the plot, as low-level operatives who were being exploited by a Russian intelligence agency.
Funny how it is mostly Ukrainians being arrested for and charged with acts of espionage and other ways of interference in the western countries, acting on behalf of Russia.
One more thing I have been thinking about a few weeks ago. More nonsense on the subject. Not sure of other “Western countries”, but here in Canada in communities with a significant Ukrainian (pretty much entirely ancestral) presence, there has been a tradition of celebrating what they themselves called the “Ukrainian Christmas” celebrated on January 7. While the idea of calling it the “Ukrainian Christmas” is bizarre, in my opinion, because it is clearly Orthodox, I have been invited to and attended many such community parties on January 7 (even managed to win some prizes, lol). Of course, the lunacy had to come:
“Westernization” and all, screw the traditions (including of completely westernized and only by name Ukrainians, so to speak). From the Alberta Provincial Council of Ukrainian Canadian Congress (from 2010):
“Christmas on January 7 is a centuries old tradition based on the old Julian Calendar that is celebrated by both Ukrainian Orthodox and Catholic Churches,” states Daria Luciw, UCC-APC President. “On behalf of the Board of Ukrainian Canadian Congress - Alberta Provincial Council, I am pleased to extend our heartfelt greetings on the occasion of one of the most significant of Christian holy days – the birth of Our Lord, Jesus Christ.”
Source: https://uccab.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Ukrainian-Christmas-Release-2010.pdf
The appearance of the first star in the night sky was the signal to begin Christmas Eve celebrations on Thursday evening for Ukrainian-Canadian families in Edmonton. January 7 is Christmas Day in the Julian Calendar used by many Ukrainian Christians from the Orthodox and Catholic traditions, along with Christians in several other countries. Typically, Ukrainian families meet for Sviata Vecherya, a 12-course meatless meal honouring the 12 apostles.[…]
Gordon Yaremchuk remembers how family would gather at his grandfather’s rural Alberta home when he was young.
“It was always a clear night and the stars were always out,” he said. “I have this image of a farmhouse and great Ukrainian food, and the Ukrainian language being spoken. It was a different feeling than (Dec. 25) Christmas.”
Celebrating this holiday is a way for him to remember his ancestors and connect with family.
“It’s something we do to honour them, to remember them. It’s just a nice tradition, and the food’s amazing,” Yaremchuk said.
Source: Edmontonians from Ukraine carry on Christmas holiday traditions in January
Weird how one lunatic simply kills (or tries to) centuries-old tradition so important to many. And he does so for some ludicrous reasons too. It is also funny how a president (a Jewish, to boot) of a country changes the date for a religious (orthodox, to boot) holiday. I also wonder what other dates he was talking about… Perhaps the October Revolution celebrated on November 7?
You are wrong, Ukraine has not lost and is not losing. Russia is losing. After more than 10 years of war and more than 1,2million causalties, around 80% of Ukraine is still in the hands of Ukraine not Russia. The US stopped providing military equipment to Ukraine one year ago, and still Ukraine is fighting, supported by Europe, Canada, Japan, and Australia. European ammo production has steadily been ramping up over the last 4 years, and will reach new records during 2026. Arms and ammo manufacturing in Ukraine has increased massively. End of last year EU provided 90billion EUR support for Ukraine, for 2026/2027. Russian casualties in 2025 have been extremely high, especially the last 5 months. Now, with more efficient sanctions against the Russian shadow fleet but also Russian refineries, the Russian economy is going to be hit real hard in 2026, especially the provinces. By 2027 or early 2028 Moscow will have two choices: either stop this unprovoked, illegal and war crime infested invasion, or risk that Russia will start to disintegrate. Very few predicted USS collapse before it suddenly happened. I predict Russia's collapse within 2 years, unless Putin stop this madness. (I may be wrong of course, Russia may collapse already in 2026).
Russia is losing the war, not Ukraine.
Russia's losses in Ukraine
Russia's provinces going bust
Shortly after the full scale invasion production of 155mm ammo was used as an example of how bad the situation was in Europe (but also the US!).
155 mm ammo production in Europe alone in 2025 is estimated to 1.8 million, this will increase further in 2026. Add to this increased production also in Ukraine itself (est. 0.3 million in 2025).
Drones are however becoming increasing important and drone production in Ukraine in 2025 is estimated to 4.5 million. In addition, in 2024/2025 European NATO countries finally woke up and started developing their own drones, often in collaboration with Ukraine; European NATO countries drone production in 2025 is estimated to 450,000 and will ramp up in 2026. Ukraine + European NATO drone manufacturing will exceed 5 million in 2026.
Are you still sure about Ukraine losing the war?
155 mm ammo production in Europe alone in 2025 is estimated to 1.8 million, this will increase further in 2026. Add to this increased production also in Ukraine itself (est. 0.3 million in 2025).
Drones are however becoming increasing important and drone production in Ukraine in 2025 is estimated to 4.5 million. In addition, in 2024/2025 European NATO countries finally woke up and started developing their own drones, often in collaboration with Ukraine; European NATO countries drone production in 2025 is estimated to 450,000 and will ramp up in 2026. Ukraine + European NATO drone manufacturing will exceed 5 million in 2026.
Are you still sure about Ukraine losing the war?
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
Yes.
Let's agree to disagree.
One important reason why Russia will lose (apart from Ukrainian support from many countries) is motivation. Ukrainians are extremely highly motivated to fight for their country, their families, and their lives. They know that if they stop fighting, Ukraine will be exposed to another genocide. The US lost in Vietnam, USSR lost in Afghanistan, the US lost in Afghanistan. When the will to fight is strong enough, the invader will ultimately lose. A pity Russia don't accept this simple fact.
Beltrami2005
New Member
Do you see Russias catastrophic military results as "win"? If so please explain. I dont think it was the plan to go into a 4 year WWI trench warfare, lose over 1 million soldiers and lose relations with Europe, see all supported regimes crumble (Syria, Iran) and become 100% dependend on China.
Hoover
Member
The old question since Feb22:
Please define the term "losing" and "winning" the war.
If the Ukraine will be in existence as a free democratic state without being under control of Russia (even with the loss of soil to the aggressor) it can be considered as "not lost the war".
If you mean the Russia will reach their goals (change of gouvernment, install a puppet regime, gain all of the 5 oblasts to 100%) then no, Russia would not win.
Russia has lost over 1.2 Million soldiers (dead, wounded), the war lasts longer than the Great Patriotic War, they gained fewer than 25% of the Ukraine...no Russia is clearly not the winner.
At the end they will find a compromise, with Russia can sell itself as a sort of winner to their people. Until that the Ukraine will fight on, and Russia will lose a lot of soldiers more.
Maybe we (and the politicians) should not thinking in the terms of "winner" and "loser" in the traditional way.
The only way Russia can avoid "losing" is to enter negotiations during 2026, or 2027 by the latest. If not russia will collapse as a country. It is the russian state that is making sure the russian soldiers keep fighting. If russia dissolves, how and why will the russian soldiers keep fighting in Ukraine? Most likely they will either try to escape to Europe or elsewhere, or they will try to get back home to look after their families, who will be in a desperate situation if a collapse happens.
The 20% of russians working in the arms industries are probably doing OK, but things are not going so well for many in the remaining 80%. And as pointed out some of the regions in russia are already starting to struggle. If you look at russia as a whole the economy does not look too bad; it's when you look at specific regions it becomes clear that there are serious issues in some regions, and the situation is rapidly deteriorating. How much neglect and abuse will people in those regions tolerate before the situation explodes?
The 20% of russians working in the arms industries are probably doing OK, but things are not going so well for many in the remaining 80%. And as pointed out some of the regions in russia are already starting to struggle. If you look at russia as a whole the economy does not look too bad; it's when you look at specific regions it becomes clear that there are serious issues in some regions, and the situation is rapidly deteriorating. How much neglect and abuse will people in those regions tolerate before the situation explodes?
"At the beginning of the invasion, Ukraine had 7 companies producing drones. Today — more than 500. EW (electronic warfare ) — there were 2 companies, today — 200. There were zero private companies producing missiles, today — more than 20. NRK (ground robotic complexes) — there were 0 companies, now — more than 100"
New Minister of Defense of Ukraine Fedorov Link
New Minister of Defense of Ukraine Fedorov Link
This is actually a good sign imop. At least at the base level of Europe finally considering the need to talk directly with the Russians. All propaganda aside this is a far better approach then discussing among themselves what Russia should or should no do. And infinitly more likely to result in peace
The fact it took them so long to take this act strongly implies that they acknowledge Russia will be having a say in the end result and as they say if your not at thr table your on the menue. Which by the way was the point of the stupid habit of having all kinds of peace talks and offers without actually having a representative from the country in question at the talks
Whatever the outcome on the battle field when the guns fall silent, the legacy of this conflict will last for a generation or two.
I don’t see a long term victory of any shape or form for Russia whether they conquer one % or 100 % of Ukraine in the near future.
All scenarios are problematic.
Ukraine in some form will either prevail in the near future as an independent state or be a temporary short term subjugate state with an eventual path to long term independence from Russia.
Russia will fail one way or the other.
This will no doubt have ramifications internally for Russia.
Sadly S
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #13,636
As someone who has been following this conflict for a while, and has a lot of sympathy for Russia, I agree with all of this. That having been said, what kind of independent Ukraine, it's borders, population, etc. will all be impacted by the outcome of this war. I would add that it will have not only internal, but also external ramification for Russia on a historic timescale.
I wouldn't treat these statements as mutually exclusive. In strategic terms the entire war is a loss for Russia regardless of outcome. But in the war itself Ukraine is currently losing. Their casualties are not sustainable, they're losing territories at an accelerating pace, and they're continuing to bleed population.
A bold prediction. There were many making similar predictions earlier in the war. None of them have come true. I guess time will tell, but I don't think counting on a Russian collapse is a wise strategy for Ukraine.
Apparently decades of, because many of these regions have been neglected for a long time. I don't think protests on Novokuznetsk will bring down the Russian government. Ironically it's some of the more neglected regions that have furnished recruits for the current war, leading to an influx of cash into the regions.
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Personally I don't equate land mass to meaning you're European. I grew up in the cold war and have never considered Russia to be European. Russians may be part of the European land mass but for me it's values that matter. This is why I would consider Japan to be western for example. Culture to me is most relevant to the country. I would say just because Russia has composers, writers etc. that doesn't make you European. Values and democracy matter more to me.
I have no hate for Russians. I believe all people just want to live a happy peaceful life. I was so happy when the Berlin wall fell. I was looking forward to finally having some normalcy and Russia joining and sharing western values. However I can see in my lifetime that will never happen.
Russia is a beautiful country but I believe one thing that speaks to how the west views it can be found by who primarily visits there.
Tourism in Russia - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
I get that perspective and it's got some validity, but the fact Russia does have European land mass does make it European in many ways such as trade,defence policys, regional politics. The fact they are also large and comparativly strong compared to individual e.u states makes the values argument (legitimate or not) less important then the fact that even if one objects to Russia having a say in European affairs on a moral basies Russia does in fact have a say in things. And can't simply be ignored and certainly not dictated toPersonally I don't equate land mass to meaning you're European. I grew up in the cold war and have never considered Russia to be European. Russians may be part of the European land mass but for me it's values that matter. This is why I would consider Japan to be western for example. Culture to me is most relevant to the country. I would say just because Russia has composers, writers etc. that doesn't make you European. Values and democracy matter more to me.
I have no hate for Russians. I believe all people just want to live a happy peaceful life. I was so happy when the Berlin wall fell. I was looking forward to finally having some normalcy and Russia joining and sharing western values. However I can see in my lifetime that will never happen.
Russia is a beautiful country but I believe one thing that speaks to how the west views it can be found by who primarily visits there.
Tourism in Russia - Wikipedia
Beltrami2005
New Member
But thats the thing, Russia is weak compared to european states. Its economy is seize of Netherlands, its military weaker than UK, Germany or french military. It simply has no say on things in Europe since it cant project any power. Its also culturally asian and not european. Japan is more European than Russia.
The thing is simple, what Russia wants for Europe is unacceptable for Europe. At same time Russia is too weak to project its will on Europe.
What Russia could do is to get its interests matched through positive behavior. Evrything else will force a european answer and as it is, Russia doesnt match that answer.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Russia’s army in Ukraine is larger than any army in Europe. AirPower and surface navy are not as formidable. Subs and nukes, a problem for Europe and the latter item for the whole world.