The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Fredled]

Half the budget of Ukraine is paid by foreign countries. What is the definition of "precarious" in your universe?

You ar right to write "foreign countries" in plural. Aid to Ukraine is much more stable than aid to Russia. Ukraine is helped by many countries from North America, Europe and the Asia-Pacific. Thanks to this, if one donor decides to stop the aid (e.g. the US) and all the others keep donating, they still get enough to stay afloat.

By contrast, if China pulls the plug, it's "game over" for the Putin's regime instantly.

 

[rsemmes]

You ar right to write "foreign countries" in plural. Aid to Ukraine is much more stable than aid to Russia. Ukraine is helped by many countries from North America, Europe and the Asia-Pacific. Thanks to this, if one donor decides to stop the aid (e.g. the US) and all the others keep donating, they still get enough to stay afloat.
By contrast, if China pulls the plug, it's "game over" for the Putin's regime instantly.

Because China is, and has been, paying half the Russian budget?
In your universe?

 

[rsemmes]

Is the crossroad front, Nova Poltavka, starting to crumble?

Kalibrated Ukraine Map - Google My Maps

Kalibrated Maps is developed by (https://x.com/squatsons) ). It was created with the aim of providing a publicly available but accurate control map of Ukraine. The map is updated based on confirmed information but it is still under development and may have some mistakes.

www.google.com

Kalibrated is, usually, more than a bit optimistic, but I got this.

https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/images/map-russo-ukraine-20250514-05.jpg

 

[Fredled]

Russians have been advancing in this direction for four or five months, progressing a little bit every day.

Because China is, and has been, paying half the Russian budget?

No, but it's clear that without China, Russians would be forced to stop the war.

 

[rsemmes]

Russians have been advancing in this direction for four or five months, progressing a little bit every day.
No, but it's clear that without China, Russians would be forced to stop the war.

We have been looking at those small gains all the time, this looks different. I guess that in one week we will known (if it's just more of the same), but someone may have that information already.

It is clear in your universe.
Because of these small, but steady losses, and the prospect of losing provinces, there is a feeling in Kiev that they are not losing the war and therefore, that they don't need to negotiate a peace deal now. It's extremely risky, but I think they don't understand in Kiev, that they are taking these losses by pushing their military to the limit, for over two years already. They don't understand how thin is their margin and how clear is their inferiority on the ground. Not only Zelenski, but the entire political class is unaware of the reality of the situation.

 

[Feanor]

Is the crossroad front, Nova Poltavka, starting to crumble?

Kalibrated Ukraine Map - Google My Maps

Kalibrated Maps is developed by (https://x.com/squatsons) ). It was created with the aim of providing a publicly available but accurate control map of Ukraine. The map is updated based on confirmed information but it is still under development and may have some mistakes.

www.google.com

Kalibrated is, usually, more than a bit optimistic, but I got this.

https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/images/map-russo-ukraine-20250514-05.jpg

Short answer - yes. This is a dangerous axis for Ukraine since it can threaten Pokrovsk-Mirnograd from the north-east and Konstantinovka from the west.

EDIT: I think suriyakmaps shows a more nuanced picture, especially vis-a-vis Russian advances north of Avdeevka. The Russian gains in Mirolyubovka and Malinovka seem to set the stage for a push notrth-west from there. It's not even clear that Novaya Poltavka itself needs to fall for a move against Mirnograd.

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.33499189775508%2C37.586603476284495&z=11

 

[Fredled]

Ukrainians expect increased Russian attacks in the next months. They say that the Russians increase their forces on the front line by 8 to 9000 soldiers every month. It's not going to be easier for Ukraine. That's why Putin has shown that he is not interested to negotiate. But he made a big mistake by proposing "direct talks" while knowing that himself, he wouldn't come to the talks. This is one more element bringing the US closer to Europe and Ukraine. Especially since Donald Trump was ready to come too. Putin doesn't want to see Zelensky face to face. And doesn't want to see Trump face to face neither. The odds that the US will increase its military aid to Ukraine are higher and higher.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Sumy area.

Russian forces have cleared the last few border areas near Popovka in Belgorod region. In Sumy region Russian forces have advances in Belovody, and have approached Vodolagi.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1175: Situation on Sumy front: During the last twelve days battles continue in this front with lower intensity but Russian Army continued advancing in Bilovody & Veselivka (reaching the northern outskirts of Vodolahy). Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1176: Situation on Belgorod front: During the last six days Russian Army secured the border area south of Popovka. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=50.93198676305934%2C35.38167100169422&z=13 ]

t.me

Russia hit a Ukrainian vehicle of some sort, Kursk border area. Sources claim an M5777 or a Bradley, but the drone cage and poor quality obscures it.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Colonelcassad

Пересечения госграницы не допущено: Северяне уничтожили вражескую бронемашину M-577 вместе со штурмовой группой Наша разведка вскрыла перемещение вражеской командно-штабной машины M-577 (американского производства) в окрестностях приграничного села Искрисковщина (Сумская область). Противник...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Бои у Теткино: Северяне разнесли американскую бронемашину M-577 вместе со штурмовой группой, пытавшуюся прорваться к границе ▪️Украинские боевики пытались на американской БМП пересечь российскую границу в районе н.п. Искрисковщина. ▪️В попытке увернуться от удара российского FPV-дрона...

t.me

Осведомитель

Удар по БМП М2 Bradley, которая после прилета эпично ушла с дороги. Граница с Курской областью. Осведомитель

t.me

A Ukrainian engineering vehicle attempts to enter Kursk region around Tetkino, but gets hit.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Враг продолжает активность на Тёткинском направлении: его встречают огнём Северяне ▪️Разведчики гв "Север" вскрыли выдвижение очередной вражеской инженерной машины разграждения из района н.п. Атинкое в Сумской области. ▪️Точными ударами FPV-дронов техника врага уничтожена до подъезда к...

t.me

Russian strikes on Ukrainian vehicles around Tetkino.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Ивановский десант уничтожает бронетехнику ВСУ в боях у курского Тёткино Бойцы 217 полка ВДВ уничтожают танки и БМП ВСУ, атакующие у границы Курской области. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Ukrainian bridglayer hit near Tetkino.

Осведомитель

Удар по мостоукладчику ВСУ, который использовался для наведения переправы в районе Теткино, куда пытаются накатывать подразделения противника. Осведомитель

t.me

Russian strikes hitting allegedly an M109 firing in support of Ukrainian forces assaulting towards Tetkino. I can't make out the vehicle but it definitely burns.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Бои под Теткино: Горит артиллерия врага ▪️Украинские нацисты перебросили артиллерию, чтобы поддерживать попытки своих наступлений в курском приграничье. ▪️Метким ударом барражирующего боеприпаса уничтожена американская САУ M109 Paladin. ▪️Кадры горящего орудия попали в объектив FPV-дрона...

t.me

Осведомитель

Удар «Ланцета» по 155-мм САУ противника, который попал на съемку нашего FPV-дрона. Поддерживая огнем самоубийственные атаки ВСУ, САУ вела огонь по району Теткино в Курской области. Осведомитель

t.me

Russian strike allegedly against a Ukrainian HIMARS that hit Ryl'sk recently. They apparently hit a small hotel, and 3 civilians are reported wounded.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Осведомитель

Заявлено, как уничтожение РСЗО M142 HIMARS в населённом пункте Нагорновка в Сумской области, который обстрелял Рыльск. Изначально машину поразил ударный БПЛА «Форпост», после чего туда же прилетел «Искандер». Осведомитель

t.me

Ryl'sk was hit by a Ukrainian strike, allegedly HIMARS.

AMK Mapping

Consequences of Ukrainian HIMARS GMLRS strikes on a motel in the city of Rylsk, Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian sources report that a deployment point of the 40th Separate Marine Brigade was the target. 3 people were reportedly injured; however, all were just from shrapnel wounds.

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Враг нанес ракетный удар по Рыльску, ранены 3 человека — подробности от врио губернатора ▪️Повреждена гостиница на въезде в город: на первом этаже располагалась автомойка, на втором — гостиничные номера. ▪️От взрывной волны повреждения получили две машины и два частных дома. Ещё три...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠ Враг обстрелял город Рыльск американскими РСЗО HIMARS ▪️Количество пострадавших уточняется. ▪️Сообщается, что удар нанесен по гостинице и автомойке. ▪️Местные жители помогают разбирать завалы. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Apparently a destroyed Ukrainian radar from an S-300V unit, Sumy region.

Военный Осведомитель

Уничтоженная в районе села Малый Бобрик Сумской области радиолокационная станция 9С32 зенитно-ракетной системы С-300В1 ВСУ. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Another destroyed CV-90 in the Kursk border area.

Военный Осведомитель

Еще одна шведская БМП CV9040C, сгоревшая в приграничье Курской области. Фото: @vdvpskov Всего только в приграничье Сумской и Курской областей ВСУ потеряли визуально подтвержденными около 15 единиц CV9040C в начала своего вторжения. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

A destroeyd FV103 Spartan near Belovody.

Colonelcassad

Автографы десантников на сожженном FV103 Spartan Этот британский БТР бойцы 83-й одшбр ВДВ уничтожили на въезде в н.п. Беловоды Сумской области. Устаревшие алюминиевые FV103 Лондон передал ВСУ еще летом 2022-го года. Сообщалось о поставке лишь 35-ти машин, но раз они до сих пор встречаются на...

t.me

A destroyed Bogdana in Kursk region.

Dambiev

Уничтоженная украинская САУ 2С22 «Богдана» на шасси Tatra Phoenix 8x8 в Курской области. #сво #потери_врага #артиллерия

t.me

Another shot of Russia's 155th Marines using a captured Bradley.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Kharkov area.

Russian TOS-1 strikes around the grain elevator in Volchansk.

Военный Осведомитель

Удар ТОС-1А «Солнцепёк» по противнику, находящемуся на территории элеватора в Волчанске. Кадры: @pograni4nik_iz_ada Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Oskol front.

Russian forces have grabbed a chunk of territory west of Pervotravene, towards Zeleniy Gay.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1176: Situation east of Kahrkov front: Russian Army began advancing northwest of Pershotravneve towards Zelenyi Hai. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=49.38603999456059%2C37.815492141624105&z=12 ]

t.me

Across the Zherebets Russian forces continue to expand their area of control approaching Redkodub, contesting Kolodezi, and pushing on Grekovka. On the left shore of the Oskol Russian forces have entered Torskoe from the north, again, reaching the road running through the center of the village.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1177: Situation north of Donetsk: Russian Army continued advancing inside Tors'ke taking control over most of the northern part of the locality. Despite the Russian MOD announcement about the complete capture clashes with Ukrainian Army continue along the road that...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1176: Situation north of Donetsk & Luhansk front: Russian Army made new advances west of Makiivka & northeast of Novomykhailivka in the direction of Hrekivka. In addition, Russian forces made new advances northwest of Nove & southeast of Zelena Dolyna. Moreover...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1176: Situation north of Donetsk: During the last eleven days combats at the northern part of Tors'ke with high intensity. Russian Army made some advances at the main street of the locality. However, the reports about the capture of the center of Tors'ke are not...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1174: Situation north of Donetsk: During the last four days Russian Army took control over the first street of Ridkodub. In addition, Russian forces made new advances northwest of Kolodyazi. Map: [...

t.me

Russian strike on a Ukrainian BTR-82A hit in the Krasniy Liman area.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Осведомитель

Уничтожение БТР-82А, который достался ВСУ в качестве трофея. Краснолиманский участок фронта. Осведомитель

t.me

Chasov Yar.

Russian TOS-1 fires in Chasov Yar.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Toretsk.

In Toretsk the back-and-forth continues in the northwestern side of town. Ukrainian forces have pushed back into the north-western outskirts. Meanwhile Russian forces have continued to take over new areas north-east of the town around Dachnoe and Krymskoe. Russian forces are also taking parts of the gully north of Dachnoe, and have pushed out of the pond area to envelop parts of Toretsk from the north.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1176: Situation on Toretsk front: During the last 48 hours Russian Army advanced west of children's zone “Berezka” taking control over the trench system in this direction. In addition Russian forces captured new trenches along the water channel north of Ozarianivka &...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1174: Situation on Toretsk front: During the last three days Ukrainian Army recaptured Komsomol suburb & reentered (again) in Dzerzhinskugol industrial complex. On the other hand Russian Army made small advances at 12th district & southwest of Dachne. Map: [...

t.me

During the May 9th truce Ukrainian forces from the 100th Mech Bde attempted a large mechanized assault into Toretsk. The assault failed, an Ukraine lost 3 M113s, 2 Bradleys, 1 Marder, and 1 Kozak armored car. Warning footage of corpses.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Avdeevka area.

Russian forces have pushed up to Zarya from the west and taken some fields north and east of Aleksandropol', and have taken a number of fields north-east of Kalinovo.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1176: Situation on Grodovskaya & Ilyinovskaya fronts: Russian Army took full control over Myrolyubivka. In addition, Russian forces continue advancing in Malynivka taking control over the northern trench systems & positions at the H-32. Russian troops continued along...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1174: Situation on Ilyinovskaya front: During the last 48 hours Russian Army took control over the "APK-Invest" pig farm northeast of Nova Poltavka. In addition, Russian forces reached H-32 from Novoolenivka. Moreover, Russian troops made small advances southeast of...

t.me

Pokrovsk area.

On the eastern flank Russian forces continue to expand their area of control around Novoolenovka, up to the road. They've also pushed into Malinovka clearing most of the village, with the outskirts remaining in no-man's land. Inside Mirolyubovka Russian forces have taken almost all of the village, and crossed back across the river taking part of Mikhailovka. On the western flank Russian forces have pushed up to the Dnepropetrovsk border through Novoaleksandrovka, towards Novomikhailovka. Russian forces are contesting Novosergeevka, and right outside Novomikhailovka.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1176: Situation on Grodovskaya & Ilyinovskaya fronts: Russian Army took full control over Myrolyubivka. In addition, Russian forces continue advancing in Malynivka taking control over the northern trench systems & positions at the H-32. Russian troops continued along...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1175: Situation on Pokrovsk front: Russian Army took control over new areas southeast of Novomykolaivka following the recent withdrawal of Ukrainian Army from there. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1175: Situation on Grodovskaya & Ilyinovskaya fronts: In the last eight days the Russian army was able to take control of almost the entire locality of Malynivka (Ukrainian army still holds the western part). In addition, Russian forces also took control over most of...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1174: Situation on Ilyinovskaya front: During the last 48 hours Russian Army took control over the "APK-Invest" pig farm northeast of Nova Poltavka. In addition, Russian forces reached H-32 from Novoolenivka. Moreover, Russian troops made small advances southeast of...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1174: Situation on Grodovskaya front: Russian Army took control over the dam of Myroliubivske Reservoir & secured the northern outskirts of Hrodivka. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1173: Situation on Pokrovsk front: Russian Army made significant advances with the complete capture of Novooleksandrivka reaching the outskirts of Novomykolaivka & Solona river (Less than 1 Km from from Dnipropetrovsk oblast) as well as several positions south of it...

t.me

Russian forces inside Malinovka. The village is either completely or mostly completely under Russian control.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian drone takes out a stuck Kozak armored car near Malinovka.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Colonelcassad

Уничтожение ББМ «Козак» ВСУ в районе Малиновки Бронированная боевая машина «Козак» ВСУ в районе н.п. Малиновка была подорвана на минно-взрывном заграждении. Операторы FPV-дронов батальона «Спарта» 51 гвардейской общевойсковой армии добили поврежденную технику точным ударом дрона-камикадзе...

t.me

A series of drone strikes around the Pokrovsk area, Russian drones hit Ukrainian troops, 5 unarmored vehicles, a BMP, a Humvee, a Ukrainian drone in the sky, a retranslator antenna, a mortar position, an unknown moving vehicle claimed as a BMP, something MRAP-shaped, and Ukrainian positions. Note for the BMP, the drone takes off from the road when the vehicle approaches, operating from ambush.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Ожесточённые бои у Покровска: «️тважные» массово жгут танки, НАТОвскую технику, пехоту и артиллерию врага ▪️Подборка боевой работы бойцов группировки войск «Центр» за 14 мая по уничтожению боевой техники, вооружения, пехоты и позиций ВСУ в ходе активных боевых действий на Покровском...

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian FAB-1500 strikes in Pokrovsk.

Colonelcassad

Прилет ФАБ-1500 в квартале многоэтажек Красноармейска. Весь квартал превращен в мощный узел обороны. При лобовом штурме их там долго выковыривать придется, поэтому сейчас мы видим акцент на развитие операций на флангах. чтобы обрубить для ВСУ логистику в районе Красноармейска и Мирнограда. Ну а...

t.me

Ukraine is building defensive positions behind Pokrovsk.

Colonelcassad

t.me

 

[Feanor]

Dnepropetrovsk axis.

Russian forces have taken most of Bogatyr' and are approaching Otradnoe and Komar. They've also approached Alekseevka from the east.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1175: Situation on Velikaya Novoselovka front: During the last 48 hours Russian Army took control over 60% of the locality of Bahatyr & the southern trench system (as well as other positions southeast of it). In addition, Russian forces captured new positions east of...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1173: Situation on Velikaya Novoselovka front: Russian Army made new advances between Kostyantynopil & Bahatyr (taking control over the eastern warehouses of this locality & a third of it). Moreover, during the last seven days Russian Army made significant advances...

t.me

Russian forces inside Kotlyarovka.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️«️тважные» подняли российский флаг над Котляровкой, прорываясь к Днепропетровской области ▪️Бойцы 35 отдельной гвардейской мотострелковой бригады освободили населенный пункт и развернули в нем свои флаги. ▪️Группировка «Центр» продолжает наступление, продвигаясь к административной границе...

t.me

Russian Molniya drone strikes around Bogatyr'.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Velikaya Novoselka area.

Russian forces have taken all of Vol'noe Pole, and advanced in the fields west of Novoselka.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1174: Situation on Velikaya Novoselovka front: Russian Army continue developing the offensive towards Odradne & approached Komar from the east. In addition, Russian Army captured a series of positions north & northwest of Novosilka. Moreover, Russian troops made small...

t.me

Russian FAB-500 strikes near Privol'noe.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Zaporozhye.

Russian forces have advanced in several areas, north of Lobkovoe, and east of Kamenskoe. Russian gains here remain limited and their goal currently still seems to be the village of Kamenskoe. Despite some earlier indications, no real effort to take the town of Orekhov appears to be under way.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1172: Situation on Zaporizhia front: During the last two weeks Russian Army made a series of advances in this fronts where it has returned to a battle of positions. Russian Army took full control over the locality of Lobkove & recaptured new positions in the southern...

t.me

An interesting video of a Russian soldier from BARS-32 knocking down a Ukrainian drone with a board. Note the soldier is working on an antenna on a tower. Both sides use antennas on elevated positions as retranslators.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Связист отряда БАРС-32 отбился от вражеского дрона доской ▪️Украинские боевики атаковали вышку связи в Запорожской области с помощью дронов-камикадзе. Видео с одного из дронов перехватили наши специалисты службы РЭБ. ▪️Находящейся на вышке связист отряда БАРС-32 имени Павла Судоплатова не...

t.me

Black Sea/Crimea.

Russian helos hunting Ukrainian unmanned boats, Black Sea.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Strikes.

Russian strikes landing in Kiev.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian drone strikes in Sumy region.

Colonelcassad

Последствия ударов Гераней в Сумской области накануне.

t.me

A recent Russian strike in Sumy hit a tank repair facility.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Осведомитель

Последствия утреннего ракетного удара ОТРК «Искандер-М» по промышленному предприятию в г. Сумы. На третьем фото в кадр случайно попали катки от танков Т-72, что говорит о том, что накрыли ремонтный цех украинской бронетехники. Эту фотографию уже удалили из оригинального поста украинского...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Ракетным ударом в Сумах уничтожена ремонтная база ВСУ ▪️Украинские СМИ выложили фотографии с места удара, на которых видны катки для бронетехники, предположительно для танков Т-72. ➖"Удар по промышленному объекту, есть погибшие и пострадавшие" — написали украинские пропагандисты. ▪️Пост...

t.me

Russian strikes landing in Odessa. Note these are at least two different waves of strikes.

Осведомитель

Дым на месте прилета в Одессе. Ранее украинские ресурсы сообщали об угрозе баллистики. Осведомитель

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Ночью десятки "Гераней" нанесли удары по целям под Одессой Порядка 20 мощных взрывов в Белгород-Днестровском Одесской области. Местные каналы сообщают о возникшем пожаре. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Russia has apparently been using a new, cheaper, smaller, tactical cruise missile, carried by the Orion-S UCAV. It's being called Banderol', and has piles of western components in it, illustrating how effective the sanctions have been. Some sources report a range of 500 kms, speed of 650 km/h, and a payload of 115 kg. Reportedly it carries a Russian Kometa satellite antenna.

Новая российская малогабаритная авиационная крылатая ракета "Бандероль"

Главное управление разведки (ГУР) министерства обороны Украины распространило информацию о новой российской малогабаритной авиационной крылатой ракете С8000 Бандероль, эпизодическое применение которой отмечается украинской стороной с начала этого года. Согласно утверждениям ГУР,…

bmpd.livejournal.com

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vk.com

Военный Осведомитель

Фото частей и рендеры новой российской крылатой ракеты S8000 "Бандероль", опубликованные противником. Как утверждается, данная ракета способна поражать цели на расстоянии до 500 км, летит со скоростью до 650 км/ч и несет 115-кг осколочно-фугасную боевую часть ОФБЧ-150. Оснащается китайским...

t.me

Осведомитель

Несколько снимков обломков нового российского реактивного дрона/крылатой ракеты «Бандероль», которые противнику посчастливилось заполучить в хорошем состоянии. Осведомитель

t.me

Осведомитель

Разведывательно-ударный БПЛА «Орион» ВКС РФ с лёгкой крылатой ракетой «Бандероль» под брюхом. Осведомитель

t.me

Осведомитель

На сайте ГУР МО появилась информация о новом реактивном дроне/крылатой ракете S8000 "Бандероль", которую ВС РФ начала активнее применять в последнее время. Согласно указанным характеристикам, изделие имеет скорость 580 км/час, дальность полета в 500 километров и несет в себе 150-кг...

t.me

Ukraine hit a market in the center of Tokmak.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Враг атаковал центр города Токмак, горят торговые ряды городского рынка. По имеющейся информации, пострадавших нет, сообщает глава Запорожской области. Опасность повторных ударов сохраняется. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

In Lugansk Ukrainian forces hit an asphalt factory. It's likely the facility is doing something else, and that's why it was targeted.

Colonelcassad

Утром три дрона-камикадзе ВСУ атаковали асфальтобетонный завод в Луганске В результате атаки на производственной площадке произошло возгорание. Повреждения получили гражданский транспорт и административное здание завода. По уточненным данным, в результате украинской атаки в Луганске пострадали...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Утром враг атаковал дронами Луганск — правительство ЛНР ▪️Три ударных БПЛА ВСУ самолетного типа сегодня рано утром атаковали асфальтобетонный завод в Луганске. ▪️В результате на производственной площадке произошло возгорание. ▪️Менее чем через час еще один беспилотник ударил по территории...

t.me

Interesting footage of a mass-launch of Ukrainian UAVs for striking Russia. These are Chaklun-V systems with a reported range of 700 kms.

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Военный Осведомитель

Кадры запуска украинских дальних дронов-камикадзе "Чаклун-В" с дальностью полета до 500-700 км и БЧ массой 20 кг. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Осведомитель

Редкие кадры ночных пусков украинских дальних (~700 км) БпЛА-камикадзе «Чаклун-В» операторами 14-го отдельного полка беспилотных авиационных комплексов Сил беспилотных систем Украины. Осведомитель

t.me

Russian sources claim MiG-35s are being used by Russia for drone defense.

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Another look at Russian Kochevnik anti-UAV teams.

Военный Осведомитель

Эпичная работа мобильных групп ПВО из состава ОСпН «Кочевник» по защите российского неба от налетов украинских дронов-камикадзе в период до 9 мая. В кадре мобильные РЛС для обнаружения беспилотников, различные пулеметы с тепловизорами и обеспечивающие мобильность всего этого пикапы. Ну и...

t.me

Interesting bits.

Possibly our first sighting of a new Russian UGV, the Impul's, on the front lines being hit by a Ukrainian FPV drone.

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Rare footage of Russian use of Vikhr' ATGMs and Izd. 309 LMURs by an Mi-28NM. Earlier in the war these munitions played a big role in stopping Ukrainian attacks, and made the Ka-52 useful where the Mi-28N was not.

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Военный Осведомитель

Вылет ударного вертолета Ми-28НМ на боевое применение лёгкой многоцелевой управляемой ракеты Х-39 («Изделие 305») в зоне ответственности группировки войск «Восток». Военный Осведомитель

t.me

We have evidence Ukraine has started using larger strike UAVs against battlefield targets, instead of just trying to hit Russian rear areas.

Colonelcassad

Вот такой вот самолётик недавно прилетел к бойцам на передовую. Противник стал атаковать крупными БПЛА самолётного типа (предположительно "Лютый") не только дальние цели, но и ближние тылы. Звук, как у бензиновой Бабы-Яги, боевая часть начинена стальными шариками. Будьте бдительны и...

t.me

Ukrainian S-200s in use, possibly as improvised ground-ground missiles.

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Colonelcassad

Модернизированные украинские ракеты С-200 используются в качестве баллистических ракет класса «земля-земля» для нанесения ударов по территории России.

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Использование противником зенитных ракет 5В28 из состава ЗРК С-200В «Вега». Пуски выполняют из перемещаемых стационарных ПУ 5П72. Часть ракет, действительно используется как ПВО. Часть переделана в ракеты «земля-земля». Именно такая 5В28 попала в ресторан в центре Таганрога в 2023 году...

t.me

Осведомитель

ГУР МО в своем официальном видео продемонстрировало использование зенитных ракет 5В28 из состава ЗРК С-200В/М «Вега». Пуски производятся из перемещаемых стационарных ПУ 5П72. Возможно, речь идет о зенитных ракетах, переделанных в баллистические. Осведомитель

t.me

A new Ukrainian Grad variant on a MAN chassis. No word on whether it's a new-build or a remounted launcher. Undisclosed comm and FCS upgrades are being reported.

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Военный Осведомитель

На Украине представили модернизацию РСЗО "Град" на новом шасси MAN 6x6. Как заявил командующий Национальной гвардии Украины Александр Пивненко, модернизированная РСЗО получила улучшенную мобильность и проходимость, современные цифровые системы управления огнем и наведения, а также с...

t.me

bmpd

Поступивший на вооружение Национальной гвардии Украины модернизированный вариант 122-мм РСЗО БМ-21 "Град", переставленный на шасси MAN (6x6). Также на установке размещается дополнительный боекомплект. Заявляется, что боевая машина оснащена электроприводами и современной системой управления огнем.

t.me

A rare photo of a Ukrainian soldier with an SB-600 case in the war zone.

Военный Осведомитель

Достаточно редкое фото с транспортно-пусковой установкой американского барражирующего боеприпаса Switchblade 600 на вооружении 14-го ОПБпАК сил беспилотных систем Украины. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Another sighting of the Uragan-1 in the war zone.

Colonelcassad

РЗСО "Ураган" на на шасси БАЗ-69092 в зоне СВО. @Ugolok_Sitha

t.me

 

[KipPotapych]

WarZone article about the new Russian missiles mentioned above by Feanor:

New Small Russian Cruise Missile Captured By Ukrainian Intelligence

Lightweight, low cost, and reportedly full of foreign components, Russia's Banderol cruise missile has emerged on the battlefield in Ukraine. Lightweight, low cost, and reportedly full of foreign components, the Banderol missile could put Ukrainian air defenses under even greater strain.

www.twz.com

Ukraine lost another F-16 about 5 hours ago, pilot is alive (via Google translate from Ukrainian):

Around 03:30 on May 16, communication with the F-16 aircraft disappeared. At that time, the Ukrainian fighter was performing the task of repelling the enemy's air attack.

"According to preliminary data, the pilot destroyed three air targets and worked on the fourth, using an aircraft cannon. However, there was an abnormal situation on board. The pilot took the plane away from the settlement and successfully ejected," the Air Force reported.

It is noted that the search and rescue team quickly found and evacuated the pilot.

Украина потеряла F-16: пилот отвел самолет от населенного пункта и успешно катапультировался – Воздушные силы

Воздушные силы ВСУ потеряли самолет F-16 – во время отражения воздушной атаки россиян пилот столкнулся с нештатной ситуацией на борту, но смог отвести самолет подальше от населенного пункта и успешно катапультироваться.

www.pravda.com.ua

They are going to need a lot more of these if they lose them at this rate.


Great Britain reportedly sent mock-up tanks and AD systems (translated form Ukrainian):

Great Britain sends mock-ups of air defense systems and tanks to Ukraine

As part of its support for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the British military has developed and is already handing over realistic weapon models to Ukrainians. These “designers” imitate MLRS, air defense, tanks and artillery and are assembled on site in just a few hours. Their goal is to force Muscovites to spend missiles and drones on cheap mock-ups instead of real equipment.

✙DeepState✙

Велика Британія надсилає Україні муляжі систем ППО і танків У межах підтримки ЗСУ, британські військові розробили та вже передають українцям реалістичні макети озброєння. Ці «конструктори» імітують РСЗВ, ППО, танки і артилерію та збираються на місці буквально за кілька годин. Їхня мета змусити...

t.me

Probably part of that “strong response” that was promised on Sunday.


The counterattack on Toretsk on May 9 that Feanor mentioned in his update was, what Deepstate called, extremely unsuccessful and caused many losses.

✙DeepState✙

➕ "Контратака" 100 ОМБр в Торецьку В мережі можна спостерігати кадри великого штурму в Торецьку, де було задіяно понад два десятки одиниць техніки і значна кількість піхоти. Спостерігаючи за подіями, можна подумати про черговий безтолковий штурм кацапів механізованою колоною по відкритій...

t.me

Probably just a miscalculation by the “more advanced side” rather than the two being exactly the same, just one having significantly less resources to keep doing the same thing a lot more often.


Zelensky, a master chess player, having shown himself a fool once again, declared that the meeting with Putin in Turkey would not be necessary if the two sides can agree on ceasefire:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday a proposed meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin could be skipped if an agreement on a ceasefire between the two countries is agreed during technical talks in Istanbul.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-says-no-need-putin-meeting-if-technical-talks-agree-ceasefire-2025-05-15/

Spoiler alert: a) Putin was never coming to Turkey and b) there will be no agreement on ceasefire.


Euros with their tough “actions”:

Macron disagrees:

Merz has had a really rough start to his leadership and keeps on going with it.

Macron’s statement regarding the necessity of ceasefire in order to negotiate from a strong position is… well, self-explanatory and, frankly, laughable. Very weird ultimatums do not put anyone in a stronger position (quite the opposite). It really seems at this point that the effort to prop up Ukraine is failing and is at its last breaths.

Trump now says that nothing will happen until he meets Putin personally, so, I am assuming, the Euro “or else” game is going to be postponed once again (they had already promised (again) that if no ceasefire is accepted by Russia on the 15th, the “or else” part kicks in, lol). In the meantime, I am mot sure why the talks on the 15th didn’t pan out. There is very little clarity in the reports. My understanding is that while Zelensky prepared for his meeting with Putin, Ukraine never put together the actual group for the talks. Russians announced their representatives on the 14th, while Ukraine was still “considering” sending a group on the 15th:

The super response threat also moved to the Sunday (or Monday?) deadline and the “or else” sanctions will be announced on Tuesday:

At the same time, however, it was also announced that the 17th package of the EU sanction on Russia will be announced on the 20th (incidentally, also Tuesday) and the work on the next package will start the next day. In other words, the emperor is losing the pants that everyone realized a long time ago he never had to begin with.

Ukraine also declared that they are not going to discuss the territories in the negotiations because that is against the constitution; the talk is going to concentrate on the ceasefire that Russia had already rejected. Who is stalling what is quite confusing at this time. Funny enough, Russia is the only party here that has been very consistent throughout.

Anyway, this is a clown show.

President Donald Trump cast doubt on the potential for success in comments aboard Air Force One on Thursday, despite having this week repeatedly suggested a breakthrough was possible.

"Nothing's going to happen until Putin and I get together, okay?" Trump said, after it became clear the Russian leader would not attend the talks in Istanbul.

"And obviously he wasn't going to go," Trump added. "He was going to go, but he thought I was going to go. He wasn't going if I wasn't there. And I don't believe anything's going to happen, whether you like it or not, until he and I get together, but we're going to have to get it solved, because too many people are dying."

Trump says Ukraine-Russia peace 'not going to happen' without Putin meet

Ukrainian and Russian representatives will meet in Istanbul, Turkey, on Thursday, for their first meeting since the opening weeks of Moscow's 3-year-old invasion.

abcnews.go.com

It’s funny that he says that it is obvious Putin wasn’t going to go; yet he can’t help himself and says that Putin was going to go if he himself were there. I wonder what happened to him in his childhood that he now has this most extreme (I have never seen anything like this) need for “greatness”. Regardless, it appears that the super duper response will now have to wait until Trump meets Putin?

 

[rsemmes]

Not even two hours, it was evident that both sides wanted to talk.

" Les représentants russes présentent des demandes inacceptables qui vont au-delà de ce qui a été discuté avant la réunion », dont « le retrait des forces ukrainiennes de vastes parties du territoire ukrainien qu’elles contrôlent pour qu’un cessez-le-feu puisse être instauré ", a affirmé cette source diplomatique à l’AFP sous couvert d’anonymat.
Selon CNN, les représentants ukrainiens se sont adressés à la partie russe par l’intermédiaire d’un interprète, pour faire comprendre que le russe n’est plus la langue de l’Ukraine.

En direct, guerre en Ukraine : Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz, Keir Starmer, Donald Tusk et Volodymyr Zelensky réunis à Tirana, en marge des discussions russo-ukrainiennes en Turquie

Le président ukrainien a appelé à une « réaction forte » en cas d’échec des pourparlers en Turquie. De son côté, Emmanuel Macron juge « inacceptable » que la Russie ignore de nouveau l’appel au cessez-le-feu.

www.lemonde.fr

Ukraine wants a ceasefire, Russia wants Ukraine troops to retreat in order to accept that ceasefire. As a gesture of goodwill, Ukraine was using an interpreter to make the point that Russian is not the language of Ukraine; according to CNN.

There is a song in Spanish... La asamblea de majaras, The Assembly of Fools.

 

[Fredled]

Russia-Ukraine talks end after less than two hours

ISTANBUL, May 16 (Reuters) - The first direct peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in more than three years lasted well under two hours, with no apparent sign of progress so far in narrowing the gap between the sides, and a Ukrainian source called Moscow's demands "non-starters".
Delegations from the warring sides met at a palace in Turkey on Friday, their first face-to-face meeting since March 2022, the month after Russia's invasion of its neighbour.
The Reuters Tariff Watch newsletter is your daily guide to the latest global trade and tariff news. Sign up here.

The chasm between the two sides was quickly apparent, according to the Ukrainian source who told Reuters that Russia's demands were "detached from reality and go far beyond anything that was previously discussed".
They included ultimatums for Ukraine to withdraw from parts of its own territory in order to obtain a ceasefire "and other non-starters and non-constructive conditions," the source told Reuters on condition of anonymity.

It's sad but not surprising.
_________________________________

Chasov Yar.
Russian TOS-1 fires in Chasov Yar.
[END OF STORY]

WTF!? ...Nothing more?

It's being called Banderol', and has piles of western components in it, illustrating how effective the sanctions have been.

It depends what kind of "western components". Many components are so massively produced that it's impossible to track them. But they are not really high tech. China could duplicate them easily if they don't produce them already.
20 000 micropreocessors fit in a shoe box.

China probably send to Rusia already assembled electronic anyway.

In Lugansk Ukrainian forces hit an asphalt factory. It's likely the facility is doing something else, and that's why it was targeted.

They can produce something else. But disrupting asphalt supply can be useful to prevent road repair in the region.

Interesting footage of a mass-launch of Ukrainian UAVs for striking Russia. These are Chaklun-V systems with a reported range of 700 kms.

It's interesting because I didn't expect them to concentrate many launchers in one place.

Russian sources claim MiG-35s are being used by Russia for drone defense.

Do you mean "anti-drone" defence?

We have evidence Ukraine has started using larger strike UAVs against battlefield targets, instead of just trying to hit Russian rear areas.

Started since when?
I think that the A22 "Foxbat" tourist plane is not effective on the battle field because it can be downed easily by Russian troops. But it's effective to cross 1000 mmiles of Russian toundra where no soldier are deployed.
IMO, they use more advanced UAVs to hit Russian positions.
___________________

Macron’s statement regarding the necessity of ceasefire in order to negotiate from a strong position is… well, self-explanatory and, frankly, laughable. Very weird ultimatums do not put anyone in a stronger position (quite the opposite).

Yes. It's very wierd to think that Putin would suddenly become a normal and reasonable person and that he will stop killing people uselessly, just for his personal glory.

The only "strong position" is doubling military aid to Ukraine. I don't know what they are waiting. Including Trump.

Russia is the only party here that has been very consistent throughout.

Yes. They have been killing people by bombing Ukraine every day with Shahed/Geran UAVs, MLRS and artillery with an perfect regularity, never failing to do so a single day.
Their opinion on peace talks couldn't have been so clear and never changed.

 

[rsemmes]

Russia is "running out of soldiers".
Ukraine is running out of people.

Les défis de l’Ukraine face au déclin de sa démographie
Plus la guerre dure et plus le pays se dépeuple. En Ukraine, l’enjeu d’inverser la démographie déclinante du pays a pris des proportions telles qu’on en parle désormais comme d’un sujet crucial pour la sécurité du pays... Des données qui pourraient être sous-estimées.

Les défis de l’Ukraine face au déclin de sa démographie : souveraineté, économie, sécurité, développement

Emigration massive, territoires occupés par les Russes, disparitions de milliers d’hommes dans les combats : depuis le début de la guerre, le pays se vide drastiquement de ses habitants, laissant présager un avenir incertain.

www.lemonde.fr

The future of the country at stake, the longer the war, the higher the depopulation.

Paywall, but:

Half the Nation Gone: Ukraine’s Demographic Freefall

Ukraine’s ongoing population decline has accelerated dramatically due to the war. From 52 million in 1991, the population by 2025 has nearly halved. Official estimates put about 28–29 million people in Ukraine-controlled areas, but alternative methods like mobile phone and electricity data...

southfront.press

Official Estimates vs. Reality
Ukraine’s official Institute of Demography estimates around 29 million people currently live under Kyiv’s control, excluding Crimea and regions no longer governed by Ukraine. Ukrainian demographers acknowledge considerable uncertainty, giving an estimated range between 28 and 34 million due to wartime migration complexities. However, given the bias of the Ukrainian side in the issue of population counting, i.e. the desire of the Kiev authorities to increase demographic indicators in order to get more Western credits, it is impossible to believe the official Ukrainian information.

 

[Feanor]

Russia-Ukraine talks end after less than two hours
It's sad but not surprising.

The longer I watch the clearer it is that this won't work. Russia's position is clear, and they don't have a reason to budge from it without reciprocal compromise from the other side. Russia's current war effort is sustainable and they're steadily advancing. Ukraine's isn't. Ukraine on the other hand simply doesn't want to negotiate and it's clear by their behavior. They know any real negotiations won't go well for them because unfortunately Trump was correct, they don't the cards. They have nothing to offer Russia. Ukraine wants the west to provide more support and get more involved, to help them defeat Russia. They're going through the motions because Trump is putting pressure on them.

WTF!? ...Nothing more?

So.... there are reports Ukraine is pulling back in the center of Chasov Yar, but confirmation is lacking even in Russian sources. It seems the Indo-Pakistani incident, and the negotiations in Turkey, have shifted the focus of a lot of people away from the war itself. As a result there's less material to cover.

They can produce something else. But disrupting asphalt supply can be useful to prevent road repair in the region.

You think that was the reason? I'm thinking Russia converted the facility for some other use. It's very common to use industrial objects for military purposes in this war.

It's interesting because I didn't expect them to concentrate many launchers in one place.

I don't think they use launchers, I think they just take off.

Saint Javelin

The “Chaklun-V” is a dark horse in long-range attacks on Russian territory. This UAV boasts exceptional accuracy, a warhead sufficient for its tasks, and has already destroyed numerous targets....

www.facebook.com

Do you mean "anti-drone" defence?

I believe both are correct in English.

Started since when?
I think that the A22 "Foxbat" tourist plane is not effective on the battle field because it can be downed easily by Russian troops. But it's effective to cross 1000 mmiles of Russian toundra where no soldier are deployed.
IMO, they use more advanced UAVs to hit Russian positions.

I believe they're quoted as using the Lyutiy, which is the An-196 drone.

 

[Fredled]

One positive outcome from the negotiation:

Both countries said they had agreed to trade 1,000 prisoners of war each in what would be the biggest such exchange yet.

link
They also agreed to keep talking.

Ukraine on the other hand simply doesn't want to negotiate and it's clear by their behaviour.

They went to Turkey and Zelensky waited for Putin. Putin didn't come. I's clearly not true that they don;t want to negotiate. However I agree, that they don't want to accept Russia's terms. Not accepting the terms of the invader is not a refusal to negotiate. It's a refusal to surrender.

Anyway, the question is not whether they want to negotiate or not: They don't have the power to start negotiations because they are constantly under attack from a superior enemy.
Only Putin can start negotiations, therefore he is the sole responsible for talking or not talking.

Russia's war effort is sustainable in the short to mid term. Certainly not endlessly. Thought I said earlier that they can keep going endlessly in another post, if we consider only the economic pressure on the population and on the businesses. If we talk about the constant military losses, it's not endless. There will be a point when the war effort will be so insane that, even in Russia, they will have to re-question their policy.
An end to the war would be welcome with applause by the Russian population.

You think that was the reason?

No. But it could. Of course, they are better targets in this war. And it's possible that they aimed at something else.

I don't think they use launchers, I think they just take off.

They were laying on some ramp. Maybe with a catapult?

I believe both are correct in English.

Yes but, IMO with different meanings.
"Drone defence": To protect their own drones (Mig35 escorting UAVs)
"Anti-drone defence": To protect yourself against enemy drones.

(As not be being a native English speaker, I can be wrong... just saying.)

 

[rsemmes]

I was wondering...

When you want something, you pay for it. Is NATO/EU offering to pay anything for the ceasefire we want/demand?

 

[Feanor]

I was wondering...

When you want something, you pay for it. Is NATO/EU offering to pay anything for the ceasefire we want/demand?

Presumably they're offering to stop passing additional packets of sanctions. So it's less of a "here's what we will pay" and more of "here's a stick we won't hit you with".

 

[Feanor]

They went to Turkey and Zelensky waited for Putin. Putin didn't come. I's clearly not true that they don;t want to negotiate. However I agree, that they don't want to accept Russia's terms. Not accepting the terms of the invader is not a refusal to negotiate. It's a refusal to surrender.

Anyway, the question is not whether they want to negotiate or not: They don't have the power to start negotiations because they are constantly under attack from a superior enemy.
Only Putin can start negotiations, therefore he is the sole responsible for talking or not talking.

We will have to agree to disagree.

Russia's war effort is sustainable in the short to mid term. Certainly not endlessly. Thought I said earlier that they can keep going endlessly in another post, if we consider only the economic pressure on the population and on the businesses. If we talk about the constant military losses, it's not endless. There will be a point when the war effort will be so insane that, even in Russia, they will have to re-question their policy.
An end to the war would be welcome with applause by the Russian population.

Maybe. But I don't think that point will come in the next couple of years, unless something changes. And there's the issue what the way out is. If there's a cost to continuing the war but ending it requires giving up Donetsk, Lugansk, or Crimea, then it's not a question of the goals of the war, it's a question of the cost of the peace. A ceasefire that doesn't offer a long term solution of any kind might also indicate a future resumption of hostilities when Europe is better prepared to support Ukraine, and could be done at a time of Ukraine's own choosing, i.e. when Russia is weaker or distracted somewhere else. It creates a permanent strategic vulnerability. I suspect that if peace isn't signed in this sort of negotiation, then the war will continue for quite some time and we are likely to see another shift in how the war is progressing before we see anything resembling a logical conclusion. We've had several such shifts already, and I see no reason to extend the current trend lines into infinity.

No. But it could. Of course, they are better targets in this war. And it's possible that they aimed at something else.

It's an entire building on a lot of land, and it's not a high-rise that the drone could have crashed into due to GPS spoofing. I suspect they hit what they intended, and I suspect the facility is being used for a military purpose. It lines up with typical practices during this war. But I guess we will have to see. And of course, as you say, there are better targets.

They were laying on some ramp. Maybe with a catapult?

Did you look at the drone? It's a one way drone, why does it have wheels if it launches off of a catapult? I think the stuff they're laying on are small runways from which they taxi and take off like an airplane.