The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

tonnyc

Well-Known Member
The Crimean Bridge is closed. A tanker train has caught fire from an unknown cause and the road section next to it has collapsed..
I can't figure out if this is a missile/long range artillery attack or sabotage or something else or even if it's just a big coincidence. But Russia is suspending traffic on the bridge for now.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Video from another angle and closer in of the fire.


Discussion on the Oliver Carroll Twitter feed posted by OPSSG has suggested that the fire is a fuel oil fire because of the length of the burn and the fact that there was no explosion which would've occurred if the tank wagons were carrying the likes of propane, petrol, aviation fuel or similar. The fire appears to be fed by an ongoing source that has a high burning temperature and that will stuff the rail bridge steel. So it will not be a quick job to replace the rail connection if that's the case. That will create a huge logistics problem for the Russian forces in Crimea and beyond because of the Russian dependence upon rail for its logistics.

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Another video showing the ferocity of the fire.


This photo appears to be early on in the event.
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Here it looks like the road span is buckled.
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But from the videos it only appears that only one span of what looks like a two span roadway is down. If that's the case then the Russians can still truck stuff in.

Some have claimed it to be a missile strike but, if that was the case, evidence of such would most likely show on the roadways and there doesn't appear to be any yet, so it may suggest a SF OP.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Happy Birthday — Mr Putin

But from the videos it only appears that only one span of what looks like a two span roadway is down. If that's the case then the Russians can still truck stuff in.

Some have claimed it to be a missile strike but, if that was the case, evidence of such would most likely show on the roadways and there doesn't appear to be any yet, so it may suggest a SF OP.
1. Superior intelligence enabled the attack — the Crimean bridge attack destroys a key component of Russia's war infrastructure to sustain its invasion of Ukraine.

2. But this does not mean that Russia can't do without the Crimean bridge, but it's a significant loss.

3. The bridge is an escape route out of Crimea for its estimated 2 million residents. There will be a renewed desire to leave Crimea — this will trigger another wave of people leaving for Russia.
(a) Those in Crimea who are in cahoots with the Russians will evacuate their families and pack light, to ensure that when the time comes, a bag and some essentials are all they need.​
(b) These Ukrainian criminals, who have betrayed their country (for rewards offered by the Russian intelligence services), will increasingly face the same worries as former ANA troops still in Afghanistan — these Ukrainians in cahoots with the Russians will face at least jail time for betraying their country (and that would be a lucky outcome for them).​
(c) Looking at the above video, internal security in occupied territories will be a problem for Russia, as there will be more and more car bombs going off in Crimea, as well as increased partisan attacks in all Russian occupied areas — the Russians are caught torturing Ukrainians, so I don’t think Ukrainian partisans are in a forgiving mood.​

4. Putin has cornered himself, by conducting a sham referenda, and repeatedly brandishing nuclear weapons — the bluff has been called. It’s is a dangerous moment for the world as China is facing tech. access economic warfare by the Americans concurrently.

5. The issue for President Xi is whether he will double down on his bet on Putin. If Putin gets arms from China in the coming days, after the major Chinese Communist Party congress (where Xi will be re-elected into power), tactical nuclear use by Putin is not out of the question. But that carries a cost at the G20. The G7 is very pro-Ukraine but don’t have traction at the G20. Nuclear use will make all G20 nations face a united G7 & the Europeans will ask G20 members are you for us or against us — in our struggle against Putin.
 
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ngatimozart

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Russian reports claim a truck bomb caused seven fuel wagons to ignite and collapsing sections of roadway
Bomb damages Crimea bridge: Russia | The North West Star | Mt Isa, QLD
The BBC report that Russia claim it as:
Russia's National Anti-Terrorism Committee (NAC) said: "At 06:07 Moscow time today [03:07 GMT], an explosion was set off at a cargo vehicle on the motorway part of the Crimean bridge on the side of the Taman peninsula, which set fire to seven fuel tanks of a train that was en route to the Crimean peninsula.
"Two motorway sections of the bridge partially collapsed."
Crimean parliamentary speaker Vladimir Kontantinov blamed the explosion on "Ukrainian vandals, who have finally managed to reach their bloody hands to the Crimean bridge".
He added the damage to the bridge would be "promptly restored, since it is not of a serious nature".

Hmm, the damage looks more than "not a serious nature". According to an explosives expert contacted by the BBC the explosions looked like they came form below and were not delivered by an air vehicle. To me it looked like two distinct explosions with the rail span explosion coming slightly after the road spans. I will have to have a play with the videos and see if I can slow them down enough whilst keeping the resolution. Tomorrows job.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Was catching the fuel train fortuitous, or was it targeted?
If it was on a regular schedule I would hazard a guess that it was targeted. The charges could be set off remotely and the SF team quietly legging it out of the area inconspicuously after things went bang.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
If Putin gets arms from China in the coming days, after the major Chinese Communist Party congress (where Xi will be re-elected into power), tactical nuclear use by Putin is not out of the question. But that carries a cost at the G20. The G7 is very pro-Ukraine but don’t have traction at the G20. Nuclear use will make all G20 nations face a united G7 & the Europeans will ask G20 members are you for us or against us — in our struggle against Putin.
If Putin really use Nuclear in Ukraine, perhaps it can be that scenario happen. However if Putin manage to shown to the rest of International power outside G7/Collective West, that Ukraine now using 'terorist method ' with Western acknowledge, it can turn different way.

Will this then open Russia to do similar thing toward bridges or railways on Ukraine border with Poland ? This war just being up one notch.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Part 2 of 2: Shaping ops, Intelligence & C4SIR

Will this then open Russia to do similar thing toward bridges or railways on Ukraine border with Poland ? This war just being up one notch.
8. If the Russian response to these alleged truck bombs or otherwise, is non-nuclear, I would consider that as a blessing for the world. As Nick Waters notes, 3 spans of the Ukraine-bound lane of the bridge have collapsed.

9. Whatever is blown up at Ukraine-Poland border, the EU will just pay to replace. If Russia sets off bombs within Poland, NATO Article 5 applies.

10. I sense a storm coming. Looks like the Ukrainians are aiming to finish the war, either this year, or by late 2023 — interesting to see what Maj. Gen. (retired) Mick Ryan has to say. The Ukrainians are clearly going for broke to demonstrate this capability to take down the bridge to Crimea— knowing that the Iranians are supplying drones to the Russians to attack their civilians.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
If the Russian response to these alleged truck bombs or otherwise, is non-nuclear, I would consider that as a blessing for the world.ld consider that as a blessing for the world.
Biden right now that call Putin will release nuclear arsenal in Ukraine. Biden’s ‘Armageddon’ warning wasn’t based on new intelligence, US says
While Putin say that nuclear is possible if he has to maintain Russian integrity. Some say it is warning to the West not to send troops in Ukraine, when he's going to increase Russian engagement.

Some in West seems think Putin don't have anything else to send to Ukraine, asside nuclear. Thus escalation from Putin will be nuclear as he has no other assets to send. Let's see if Putin doesn't have anything else to send to Ukraine front.

Personally I'm thinking in middle. Putin still has more to send to Ukraine. However he will go nuclear if West send troops to Ukraine after that. Remember Pro Russian media already stated West already send troops in the form of foreign mercenary.

If he go nuclear, he will do it to Kviy or Western Ukraine. Eastern Ukrainian is part of Russia as his administration now claim. So I don't think he will release nuclear to fellow ethics Russian. Don't think he will do it in Poland (more on conventional bomb), as he try to shown and sell the non collective west world NATO is the agressors. He will potentially do it in front off Poland in Western Ukraine, just to spite NATO and watch NATO reaction.

I'm still not see he will go nuclear, as he still has more to send toward Ukrainian fronts.
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Part 1 of 3: The meat grinder welcomes more meat

If he go nuclear, he will do it to Kviy or Western Ukraine. Eastern Ukrainian is part of Russia as his administration now claim. So I don't think he will release nuclear to fellow ethics Russian.

I'm still not see he will go nuclear, as he still has more to send toward Ukrainian fronts.
1. I don’t know about Putin’s nuclear options nor do I want to understand it. The outcome is that Putin’s bluff has been called in 8 Oct 2022.

2. Any non-nuclear response, I would see as a blessing. The destruction of Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines is on a par with the 9/11 attacks on the twin towers of the World Trade Center. The gloves from NATO have come off, over the pipeline attacks.

3. The meat grinder welcomes more meat.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
The gloves from NATO have come off, over the pipeline attacks.
That's what NATO has to shown the confidence if the attacks really done by Russian. Even some in US (Independent online sites) not believe that. After all this is part of how to sell on the rest of non collective west, which mostly still sitting in the fence.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Part 2 of 3: The meat grinder welcomes more meat

That's what NATO has to shown the confidence if the attacks really done by Russian. Even some in US (Independent online sites) not believe that. After all this is part of how to sell on the rest of non collective west, which mostly still sitting in the fence.
4. I am not into conspiracy theories but I am not stopping others from doing so. Russian misinformation — creates a lot of noise — the Russians are now after implausible deniability over the destruction of Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines.

5. At this time, the US needs to hold the NATO alliance together. It’s too risky to do something so silly. Russian misinformation that claims the US attacking its own allies is just noise. Plus the US & UK’s intelligence services have provided prior warning of this specific threat.

6. Russia’s National Anti-Terrorism Committee says that a truck exploded on the bridge which led to damage — which I have trouble believing — like Mike Yeo, says. Truck bomb theory people need to explain how Ukraine supposedly managed to transport tons of explosives into Russia and then drive that through Kuban and onto the Kerch bridge?

7. My initial reasoning that it is not a truck bomb is different from Mike Yeo — a truck bomb would not cut 3 spans of the bridge — it is more likely that the truck driver is a victim of the blast — but we need more facts to emerge, to decide if it is a truck bomb. If it is a truck bomb, it is even more impressive. We need to keep in mind:
Putin: If Ukraine touches my Crimean Bridge I will go nuclear.​
Ukraine brings down the Crimean Bridge.​
Putin: This looks like terrorism, I will install a commission to investigate it.​

7. @Ananda, I only said, the gloves have come off — nothing more, nothing less. As I value my credibility, I don’t want to chase my tail on things that can’t be proved.
 
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seaspear

Well-Known Member
Explosion Rocks Russia's Prized Kerch Strait Bridge Leading To Crimea (Updated) (thedrive.com)
There is footage via tweet in the "Warzone" with the fire now out and footage of the extensive damage to the bridge ,the roadway did not collapse over the navigable strait into sea of "Azov" ,one lane of the bridge appears drivable clearing the wreckage of fuel tankers and replacing the rails for trains which have supplied many of the logistical needs for Crimean based forces is any ones guess for how long this takes
 

tonnyc

Well-Known Member

Listening to the sound it almost to my untrained ear's sounds like a missile coming in
Someone told me that the video uploaded by hoho is likely a hoax, as the light is too bright, as if in daytime. The explosion happened around six in the morning local time so still early morning. As other photos and videos show, it should still be somewhat dark. I find the argument convincing and thus will caution against considering the sound in that video as genuine.
 
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seaspear

Well-Known Member
This article suggests that the U.S has supplied over 800,000 155mill shells to Ukraine and is running "low" and would look to increasing the ability to increase its manufacture
The US military is running low on ammo after sending so much to Ukraine (taskandpurpose.com)
This is from an earlier article suggesting South Korea's involvement in the export of this calibre to Canada I'm not sure if South Korea is in a position to directly export to the Ukraine as it appears to have large quantities of such
S. Korea reviews ammunition exports to restock Canadian weapons sent to Ukraine - Asia News NetworkAsia News Network
 
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