I know...
I wanted a third confirmation but, if Ukraine doesn't start with those Kupiansk/Pokrovsk-style local counterattacks now, it is gone.
Average elevation: 376 m • Biberbach, Gemeinde Biberbach, Bezirk Amstetten, Niederösterreich, 3353, Österreich • Visualization and sharing of free topographic maps.
en-gb.topographic-map.com
And Russia is already on that side of the river to the south, across the Suka.
("The report of my death was an exaggeration". M. Twain)
I don't know that Ukraine has the resources to counter-attack. They have to send forces to conslidate the Gaychur river line in Zaporozhye. They have to keep feeding troops into the Kupyansk meat-grinder, they have to reinforce the Volchansk area, they have to try and hold Konstantinovka and Krasniy Liman. I don't think they have resources to also counter-attack on the flanks of Seversk.
Also nevermind the Sukha, Russia is across Bakhmutovka in the north by Dronovka, and around Platonovka. These rivers are small, and it's winter. They're not particularly large obstacles, certainly very fordable.
EDIT: Another interesting piece of digging. Popasnaya, the town that was the site of very heavy fighting in 2022 and saw the first large scale use of Wagner fighters, will apparently see at least partial reconstruction after all. It was initially stated by regional authorities that rebuilding the town didn't necessarily make sense. However now plans for limited reconstruction have been announced, tied to the waterworks and rail infrastructure, with housing for the employees to be rebuilt. ~250 people (out of a pre-war ~16 000) still live in the ruins, with apparently no power or water. As of August DNR leadership estimated the town as ~95% destroyed, and the footage, granted from February of this year, confirms as much. Unlike the earlier footage we saw in Pervomaysk, there have been no substantial reconstruction efforts. Note currently the town is still within drone range, being ~20-30 kms from the front line. In fact the current movements around Seversk actually have a lot to do with pushing the front line back from places like Pervomaysk and Popasnaya (and of course Severdonetsk-Lisichansk). Because of the nearness to the front, the city is consiered a closed city and is not accessible to anyone without government-approved reasons for being there, or residents.
It's not clear if the rail infrastructure in the town is already functioning, and if it whether the workers are bused in from Pervomayskoe (~30 minutes away) or live in the ruins locally. I suspect the former, with the reconstruction plans being mainly for their benefit. The westward rail line out of Popasnaya runs to Soledar, before veering southward into Artemovsk/Bakhmut and is not currently active, but likely will become active once the front line shifts to the Kramatorsk and Slavyansk area, putting Artemovsk/Bakhmut further behind Russian lines. However it's possible the lines east, north, and south-west are functioning at least for military logistics. South-west the line runs into Gorlovka, a functioning city in DNR hands since 2014. The eastward line heads into Pervomayskoe/Sokologorsk and then veers south towards Debal'tsevo where it eventually splits. The northern line heads straight into Lisichansk and is likely also not in use due to nearness to the front line.
The last three links are short interviews with locals. They mostly live off of Russian humanitarian aid, delivered twice a month in the form of basic food supplies per person, and medication on a case by case basis. Water comes from wells in the private sector, there are also some water deliveries, but they also take water from a local stream. No reconstruction certificates or compensation payments for destroyed property are being made here at this time, though requests are being accepted. Heating is handled by wood-fire and coal stoves but coal supplies are scarce.
vk.com
Глава ЛНР Леонид Пасечник заявил, что город Попасная "разбит" серьезнее Мариуполя, масштаб разрушений там превышает 95%. РИА Новости, 23.09.2025
ria.ru
Власти ЛНР намерены восстановить часть Попасной после того, как линия боевого соприкосновения будет отодвинута. Об этом в интервью ТАСС на Петербургском
lug-info.ru
В первую очередь отстроят жилые дома
bloknot-lugansk.ru
