The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Terran]

Well whatever the case the can has been kicked down the road.

No Western Tanks For Ukraine Announced After Allies Meet In Germany

While tanks were not on the list of donations, top U.S. general says Ukraine has the armor it needs to go on the offensive.

www.thedrive.com

Other than the Challengers NATO is at this point only sending Soviet models.

 

[Feanor]

Is there any explanation for these attacks in Open Fields without any support? I don't get what exactly Russia is trying to accomplish with these foolish attacks that expose their soldiers.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1616409933192249344

It's a bit murky but right now Russia is reporting successes in Zaporozhye area. It's possible Russia hoped to attract less attention by moving infantry vs vehicles. I'm honestly not sure. I have the same questions about Ukrainian frontal counter-attacks.

Matsimus talks here about the upgrading of tanks, especially continual upgrading. He argues that the hulls eventually succumb to old age because of the stresses placed on them, regardless of whether or not they see combat service. He also makes a good point about how the armour is weakened due to holes being drilled in it or it being subject to blunt force trauma.

I think that the suggestion of upgraded M-60s has problems because of what Matsimus has said. The M-1 Abrams being sent to Ukraine isn't a good idea either because of its maintenance and fuel requirements. If this was peacetime, then yes because the Ukrainians would have time to induct it properly with maintenance, spares, etc., being taken care of. In wartime it's far to much of an issue because the Ukrainians don't have the required time. If it had a diesel powerpack then the powerplant maintenance wouldn't be such an issue.

In my view the Leo2s are the best option because of their powerpacks and the closeness to support for them. I regard the arguments about Germany not wanting to send them to Ukraine because of the suggested bad look of flying turrets would be harmful to sales opportunities as somewhat spurious and ill considered. If anything, the Leo2s performance against a near peer enemy would enhance its sales potential, if it performed well. Tanks are bought to go into battle and do unto the enemy before the enemy gets a chance to do unto them. They aren't acquired to sit on a parade ground and look good. If you acquire tanks purely because of the ascetics, then you have more money than brains.

IMHO Germany is reticent about their tanks being used because of WW2 guilt. Their history has produced a blind spot which they adhere to with stubborn determination. The sight of German built tanks fighting Russians scares them because of they don't want a repeat of images of German tanks racing across the Russian steppe. It's a psychological thing that has a hold on their political elite. Yes, in WW2 Germany did some terrible things, but todays Germany isn't that Germany.

I think the real reason is a lack of available tanks.

EDIT: A currently serving US Navy Seal was killed in Artemovsk/Bakhmut area. The US is claiming he was AWOL. Presumably much like all those Russian service members were "on leave" during the '14-'15 campaigns. Though of course it's possible that he deserted from the Seals only to go fight in Ukraine afterwards...

Colonelcassad

На Украине (предположительно под Артемовском) ликвидирован действующий "морской котик" Дэниэл Свифт. США уже включили "damage control" и заявляют, что Свифт является "дезертиром" самовольно оставившим службу. Судя по всему, под Артемовском таких "дезертиров" еще немало шастает. Как видим...

t.me

AWOL Navy SEAL Daniel Swift killed in Ukraine, official says

Daniel W. Swift was killed in Ukraine on Jan. 18, an official told CBS News.

www.cbsnews.com

EDIT2: That was worded poorly. To be clear, he's been AWOL for some time, is allegedly considered a deserter, and has shown up dead in Ukraine. He did not complete his service in the US military.

 

[Terran]

Tanks have been offered but without the reexport agreement by Germany. No go.

 

[seaspear]

The Leopard 2 tank being requested by Ukraine is not invulnerable and may depend on the version and upgrades received to determine its effectiveness
Germany’s Leopard 2 Tank in Syria Was Beaten Badly in Battle. Why? | The National Interest

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

IMHO Germany is reticent about their tanks being used because of WW2 guilt. Their history has produced a blind spot which they adhere to with stubborn determination. The sight of German built tanks fighting Russians scares them because of they don't want a repeat of images of German tanks racing across the Russian steppe. It's a psychological thing that has a hold on their political elite. Yes, in WW2 Germany did some terrible things, but todays Germany isn't that Germany.

War guilt is a useful excuse to sit on the sidelines. Up until now, Germany hugely underinvested in its armed forces. Eva Hogl of the SDP claimed that the armed forces require 300 billion euros to get up to speed, not the 100 billion pledged.

A former CDU cabinet minister claimed that Scholz still hopes of reviving Germany’s prewar relationship with Russia. That plan might seem fanciful, but some of the things Scholz says could be interpreted as wishful thinking over both Russia and China. It would explain his hesistancy to act decisively over arms transfers. At each stage of the war, he's hoping like Mr Micawber that "something will turn up" to bring an end to hostilities. I wouldn't be surprised if he's secretly terrified of Ukraine retaking Crimea and all of the Donbass because it would mean there'd be no chance of restoring good economic ties with Russia.

As The Times article says, it may well be that in a few weeks Germany is pressured to allow other countries to send Ukraine their Leopard 2 tanks, but either way the dithering is pointless. Either say tanks are a red line Germany will never be convinced to provide, or allow them. What would delaying a month achieve other than making Germany look like an unreliable security partner? (Also, and whilst I'm not advocating this, what does Germany do if Poland and others send Leopard 2 tanks without authorisation - sanction them?)

 

[John Fedup]

Matsimus talks here about the upgrading of tanks, especially continual upgrading. He argues that the hulls eventually succumb to old age because of the stresses placed on them, regardless of whether or not they see combat service. He also makes a good point about how the armour is weakened due to holes being drilled in it or it being subject to blunt force trauma.

I think that the suggestion of upgraded M-60s has problems because of what Matsimus has said. The M-1 Abrams being sent to Ukraine isn't a good idea either because of its maintenance and fuel requirements. If this was peacetime, then yes because the Ukrainians would have time to induct it properly with maintenance, spares, etc., being taken care of. In wartime it's far to much of an issue because the Ukrainians don't have the required time. If it had a diesel powerpack then the powerplant maintenance wouldn't be such an issue.

In my view the Leo2s are the best option because of their powerpacks and the closeness to support for them. I regard the arguments about Germany not wanting to send them to Ukraine because of the suggested bad look of flying turrets would be harmful to sales opportunities as somewhat spurious and ill considered. If anything, the Leo2s performance against a near peer enemy would enhance its sales potential, if it performed well. Tanks are bought to go into battle and do unto the enemy before the enemy gets a chance to do unto them. They aren't acquired to sit on a parade ground and look good. If you acquire tanks purely because of the ascetics, then you have more money than brains.

IMHO Germany is reticent about their tanks being used because of WW2 guilt. Their history has produced a blind spot which they adhere to with stubborn determination. The sight of German built tanks fighting Russians scares them because of they don't want a repeat of images of German tanks racing across the Russian steppe. It's a psychological thing that has a hold on their political elite. Yes, in WW2 Germany did some terrible things, but todays Germany isn't that Germany.

Perhaps Leo2 users should let Germany know future orders will be dependent on a no restriction deployment clause. Probably something SKorea should include in their brochures to further eat away at German market share.

 

[MarcH]

A good video about the differences between all the Leo 2's known under the umbrella term Leopard 2 a4 and then some discussion what one could expect from them on the Ukrainian battlefield :

Carla Masala for example said only A5 and later make sense on the Ukrainian battlefield. Issue is, only Poland and Sweden have significant numbers of A5 in stock. Germany has only 18 left, currently used as red force in a training center. And I'm not sure if anyone would donate A6 oder even A7.



source

 

[Feanor]

Lengthy discussion of EU defense procurement and unification vis-a-vis Russia to the Russia and the West thread.

 

[Feanor]

Zaporozhye.

Russia's offensive appears stalled. It's unclear if they're taking an operational pause to capitalize on the advantages of their position to inflict damage through artillery strikes or if they've actually run out of steam after taking a series of small villages.

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/01/21/20230121164318-908e3c80.jpg

Colonelcassad

Битва за Орехов обстановка по состоянию на 17.00 21 января 2023 года На Ореховском участке после вчерашнего успешного продвижения российских войск возникло относительное затишье. Бойцы ВС РФ ведут позиционное наступление, закрепляясь на освобождённых территориях, с комбинированным применением...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Сводка МО РФ. 21.01.2023 О наступлении в Запорожской области и освобождении поселка Двуречье в ДНР.

t.me

 

[swerve]

If the argument for the tanks from Americas point of view on the Abrams was the complexity of logistics and Maintenace would an upgraded m-60 tank be practical
Sabra M60A3 Main Battle Tank Upgrade - Army Technology (army-technology.com)

Trouble is, they'd take much longer than M1s to supply, & cost a lot more. They're pretty much a complete rebuild, while M1s can be supplied from stock. Those in store might need refurbishment, but a lot less.

 

[swerve]

A good video about the differences between all the Leo 2's known under the umbrella term Leopard 2 a4 and then some discussion what one could expect from them on the Ukrainian battlefield :

Carla Masala for example said only A5 and later make sense on the Ukrainian battlefield. Issue is, only Poland and Sweden have significant numbers of A5 in stock. Germany has only 18 left, currently used as red force in a training center. And I'm not sure if anyone would donate A6 oder even A7.

View attachment 50026

source

I think those numbers are incomplete. Switzerland, for example has a couple of hundred in store in addition to the 134 upgraded ones listed.

 

[kato]

I think those numbers are incomplete. Switzerland, for example has a couple of hundred in store in addition to the 134 upgraded ones listed.

Oh, that list. Most of the numbers are actually stated too high. Supposedly at least for Finland, Spain and - for industry by an order of magnitude - Germany.

 

[swerve]

Yes, IIRC KMW says it has 22, not 200, & while Spain may have 108 2A4 in reserve in theory, some of them are effectively scrap & the Spanish say the rest would all need rebuilding to be usable - or so I've read.

 

[KipPotapych]

Oh, that list. Most of the numbers are actually stated too high. Supposedly at least for Finland, Spain and - for industry by an order of magnitude - Germany.

Here is what Germany has, according to Kommersant.ru referencing a Der Spiegel article from a few hours ago here (the link to the article is there but I don’t get how to get beyond the cookie setting whatever offerings): Der Spiegel: Германия может передать Украине используемые только на учениях танки Leopard 2 (via google translate):

The Bundeswehr is ready to transfer 19 Leopard 2A5 tanks to Ukraine, Der Spiegel found out. This model is used only for exercises as an imitation of enemy tanks. Germany is ready to abandon these models in the first place.

As the magazine writes, in the spring of 2022, the German Ministry of Defense compiled a list of all Leopard 2 tanks available to the German army, some of which can be transferred without reducing Germany's defense capability. In total, there are 312 different tanks on the list. 99 of them were in maintenance work in May, one was decommissioned. Therefore, now the Bundeswehr has 212 functioning tanks of models 2A5, 2A6, 2A7 and the modern 2A7V (53).

Berlin is ready to transfer only old-model tanks to Kyiv, the magazine claims. Leopard 2A5 tanks are "currently being used to 'represent enemy forces' at the army's combat training center."

 

[Larry_L]

While Ukraine could really use some better tanks, they already have a logistical nightmare with the various gear from different countries. What they are getting in the Bradley runs on the same chassis as the M-270, making it slightly easier to maintain. The specifications look good, and they had a better tank kill ratio in Iraq than the Abrams. The serviveability was good also, except for friendly fire. It's quite possible they will be able to hand off targets to the M-142, and M-270 on the fly.

M2 BRADLEY IFV

The 1982 M2 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicle was the first example of that type in US service, nearly 20 years after the Soviet BMP-1.

www.tanks-encyclopedia.com

Ukraine’s M-2 Fighting Vehicles Aren’t Tanks. But They Can Destroy Tanks.

Yes, the M-2 is a battle-taxi. But it’s a tank-killing battle-taxi.

www.forbes.com

 

[Sycarion]

As The Times article says, it may well be that in a few weeks Germany is pressured to allow other countries to send Ukraine their Leopard 2 tanks, but either way the dithering is pointless. Either say tanks are a red line Germany will never be convinced to provide, or allow them. What would delaying a month achieve other than making Germany look like an unreliable security partner? (Also, and whilst I'm not advocating this, what does Germany do if Poland and others send Leopard 2 tanks without authorisation - sanction them?)

Perhaps Leo2 users should let Germany know future orders will be dependent on a no restriction deployment clause. Probably something SKorea should include in their brochures to further eat away at German market share.

From the new defense minister as reported by the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ):

Pistorius sagte nun, „der Eindruck, der gelegentlich entstanden ist, es gebe eine geschlossene Koalition und Deutschland stehe im Weg, dieser Eindruck ist falsch.“ Es gebe viele Verbündete, die sagten, es gebe gute Gründe für und gegen die Lieferung. Die gelte es sorgfältig abzuwägen. Aus deutschen Delegationskreisen hieß es gegenüber der F.A.Z., nach wie vor sei kein einziger Lieferantrag von Staaten in Berlin eingegangen, um grünes Licht für eine Lieferung von Leopard-2-Kampfpanzern an die Ukraine zu erhalten. Das gelte auch für Polen, dessen Regierung sogar laut darüber nachdachte, ohne deutsche Genehmigung entsprechende Exporte vorzunehmen.

Pistorius now said that "the impression that has occasionally been created that there is a closed coalition and Germany is standing in the way, that impression is wrong." There are many allies who say there are good reasons for and against the delivery. These must be weighed carefully. German delegation circles told the F.A.Z. that Berlin had still not received a single request from states to give the green light for the delivery of Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine. This also applied to Poland, whose government was even thinking aloud about exporting them without German approval.

Source: Hilfe für die Ukraine: Pistorius will sich für alle Fälle wappnen

How is Germany supposedly blocking others from sending Leopards, when nobody has even sent a request to be blocked?

I'm not german (but I do live in Germany) and even I'm tired of the story spread around in worldwide media regarding this topic. All that has happened so far regarding Leopards is: Germany said that they wouldn't send their Leopards until the US sends Abrams. Some users, especially Poland, claims that they will send theirs. Poland keeps making noise about sending Leopards and claiming that Germany is blocking them, while the media keeps claiming that some "anonymous" source told them that Poland has sent a request. But it seems like in reality they never even bothered to send any request to Germany in the first place, according to the german MoD.

Could the german MoD be lying? Sure. And to me the solution to this is simple, if any user, especially Poland, is actually serious about sending their Leopards. Send the request publicly. That way everyone now knows without a doubt that the ball is in Germany's court. Or, if Poland is serious about sending their Leopards even without permission, just do it. Basically, put up or shut up.

But neither has happened so far. All we get is some political posturing and theater, which is extremely beneficial for PiS in particular since they are facing an election soon. Attacking Germany is PiS' favorite way of drumming up support for elections and it seems like everyone is falling for it.

 

[KipPotapych]

Baerbock stated that while Poland hasn’t sent a request yet, but if it does, Germany is not going to stand on the way in regards to the Leopards for Ukraine (vis Google translate):

“At the moment the question has not been asked, but if we had been asked, we would not have stood in the way,” Ms Baerbock told the French television channel LCI.

@KipPotapych Where is the source for this claim? I know that such has been reported BUT we still require a source. Please remember so in the future.

Ngatimozart.

 

[seaspear]

This is one of several online articles on the deployment of rooftop Pantsir systems that have been craned into these positions , Moscow is believed to also be protected by the more formidable s-500 that can detect ballistic missiles from thousands of miles ,a question might be would the s-500 detect such attacking drones and slow missiles for the Pantsir systems to target and attack?
Air defence systems appear in Moscow amid fears of Ukrainian attacks | Metro News
Air defense systems installed on Moscow roofs (lemonde.fr)
Pantsir Air Defense Systems Appear On Moscow Rooftops | The Drive

 

[Pukovnik7]

While Ukraine could really use some better tanks, they already have a logistical nightmare with the various gear from different countries. What they are getting in the Bradley runs on the same chassis as the M-270, making it slightly easier to maintain. The specifications look good, and they had a better tank kill ratio in Iraq than the Abrams. The serviveability was good also, except for friendly fire. It's quite possible they will be able to hand off targets to the M-142, and M-270 on the fly.

M2 BRADLEY IFV

The 1982 M2 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicle was the first example of that type in US service, nearly 20 years after the Soviet BMP-1.

www.tanks-encyclopedia.com

Ukraine’s M-2 Fighting Vehicles Aren’t Tanks. But They Can Destroy Tanks.

Yes, the M-2 is a battle-taxi. But it’s a tank-killing battle-taxi.

www.forbes.com

Two problems I can see:
1) This is not Iraq.
2) Tanks have a lot more roles than just killing enemy tanks.

Can M113 do this?

While I do agree that Ukraine should standardize as much as possible, any weapon is better than no weapon at all. During the Homeland War, Croatian army used improvised weapons, weapons bought on black market, weapons captured from the enemy, with no regards for logistics or standardization. Though to be fair, our position in terms of weapons supply was far more desperate than Ukraine's.

 

[kato]

Baerbock stated that while Poland hasn’t sent a request yet, but if it does, Germany is not going to stand on the way in regards to the Leopards for Ukraine (vis Google translate):

“At the moment the question has not been asked, but if we had been asked, we would not have stood in the way,” Ms Baerbock told the French television channel LCI.

Google Translate messes that sentence up a bit in its meaning in quite relevant ways. The original quote actually translates to

"So far we have not been asked [...], and if we would be asked we would not stand in its way".

The [...] is a part i haven't found publicized so far. I'll try to look for a video.

(difference being that the google translate version in a narrow interpretation would preclude a yes currently or in the future as it only talks about the past)

Baerbock's sentence there is primarily an official statement denouncing and deconstructing the smear campaign Polish nationalist party PiS is trying to run with British support against Germany.

P.S. found the original interview

Ukraine : l'Allemagne "ne s'opposera" pas à une livraison de chars Leopard par la Pologne | TF1 INFO

[VIDÉO] L'Allemagne ne "s'opposera pas" à la volonté de la Pologne de livrer des chars Leopard à l'Ukraine, a déclaré dimanche sur LCI la cheffe de la diplomatie allemande Annalena Baerbock. Varsovie plaide en ce sens depuis des semaines. - Ukraine : l'Allemagne "ne s'opposera" pas à une...

www.tf1info.fr

Sadly the French translation over it by LCI makes the original - much longer - statement by Baerbock a bit hard to discern.