The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

seaspear · Dec 1, 2022

@Feanor Does the Wagner group come under the command of the Russian defence ministry ? Is it accountable ?
Are its losses tabulated with the general Russian military losses? Are its personnel losses a state secret as per general military losses?
I'm trying to understand where Prigozhin or if he is in a chain of command and if he is able to co-ordinate with other forces

tl1000r · Dec 1, 2022

tonnyc said:
Anyway, if it was a typo, what was supposed to be the correct sentence?

My English is very bad, especially in such thematics as war or politics, but you got me correctly. Putin is NOT decision maker by collective opinon most of the russians and not only. Putin word have a big weight during approving most of political or strategical decisions, but nothing more. He is very wise and experienced executive, he is face of the nation on world arena. But in real world he is not euqivalent Stalin or Hitler. The main role of him is being moderator inside of inter-clan relations. You can see on the list of persons who under USA or EU sunctions right now. Just throw aside nominal politics like Krimea region chief, or some another official like Lavrov and you will see who stay behind Putin. Main political power in Russia is capital (in this term i including all - oil (mr.Sechin), gas (mr. Miller), heavy industrie, minerals and etc), without money you are nothing here as politic. Additional power is military or secret services and their main figures (for example Sergei Ivanov). Next players is Banks with Central Bunk of Russia at the peak, German Gref and Elvira Nabiulina, mr. Oreshkin, mr.Manturov did you heard something about them? I could speak long about that but its all offtopic. Your media is little bit dissembles in formulating of Putins role. Look on those who stay behind him.

Feanor · Dec 1, 2022

seaspear said:
@Feanor Does the Wagner group come under the command of the Russian defence ministry ?

I'll preface this by saying that I don't know any of this for a fact, but I'll give you my best estimate. I suspect Wagner interacts with the MoD the same way that the Troops of Interior or SpN FSB interacts. They could be subordinated operationally.

Is it accountable ?

Is the MoD accountable? Shoygu royally screwed up the development of the Russian military while expending resources on nonsense. Yet he still has his job.

Are its losses tabulated with the general Russian military losses?

Almost certainly not. Troops of Interior, volunteer units, and LDNR, are all not included in Russian MoD losses. It's what makes the official casualty number plausible, with the understanding that it only represents direct MoD losses.

Are its personnel losses a state secret as per general military losses?

I suspect the official answer will be; they're a private company their losses are not a state secret. But they're also not public information. And Prigozhin is certainly not telling.

I'm trying to understand where Prigozhin or if he is in a chain of command and if he is able to co-ordinate with other forces

Good question. Presumably, and hopefully, his units are operationally subordinate to Surovikin. But this is unclear.

tonnyc · Dec 2, 2022

tl1000r said:
My English is very bad, especially in such thematics as war or politics, but you got me correctly. Putin is NOT decision maker by collective opinon most of the russians and not only. Putin word have a big weight during approving most of political or strategical decisions, but nothing more. He is very wise and experienced executive, he is face of the nation on world arena. But in real world he is not euqivalent Stalin or Hitler. The main role of him is being moderator inside of inter-clan relations. You can see on the list of persons who under USA or EU sunctions right now. Just throw aside nominal politics like Krimea region chief, or some another official like Lavrov and you will see who stay behind Putin. Main political power in Russia is capital (in this term i including all - oil (mr.Sechin), gas (mr. Miller), heavy industrie, minerals and etc), without money you are nothing here as politic. Additional power is military or secret services and their main figures (for example Sergei Ivanov). Next players is Banks with Central Bunk of Russia at the peak, German Gref and Elvira Nabiulina, mr. Oreshkin, mr.Manturov did you heard something about them? I could speak long about that but its all offtopic. Your media is little bit dissembles in formulating of Putins role. Look on those who stay behind him.

Ah. I understand what you mean. The set-up is similar to what we have, though not to the degree Russia has. The confusion is that by our standard President Putin will be a decision maker but not the decision maker. That is, he's one among several as opposed to the only one. If we say so-and-so is not decision maker to me it sounded like so-and-so has no say whatsoever while clearly President Putin's say has a large amount of weight behind it. But anyway, the confusion has been clarified. Thank you.

Don't worry about your English. It's not my native language either. It took me decades to get to this level. And yes, our media is crap. While many of them tend toward neutrality, even the most pro-Russian one has an overly simplistic view. I don't think it comes out of an intentional decision to dissemble, but rather in the era of clickbait, it's more profitable to not bother with anything complex and just do a quick simplistic article divided into three pages in order to maximize ad revenue. It's why I hang around forums like this one.

Vivendi · Dec 2, 2022

The US is trying to shift existing NASAMS systems for ME countries to Ukraine. Building new systems take up to 24 months, due to long lead times on some key components. Interestingly they say that training NASAMS operators normally take 6 months -- Ukraine did it in 60 days.

The US signed a $1.2 billion contract with LM to produce 6 NASAMS, all to be delivered by 2025. The US is in this for the long haul, that's for sure.
U.S. looks to shift air defense systems from Middle East to Ukraine, Raytheon chief says - POLITICO

In other news, Macron and Biden confirmed their strong support to Ukraine. No negotiations with Russia will happen unless the Ukranians themselves agree to it. It's good they make this clear; Ukraine is fighting, and Ukraine is deciding the political process. Not the US, not France, not NATO.
Biden, Macron reaffirm their strong partnership, support for Ukraine (cnbc.com)

Foreign ministers from Sweden, Finland, Norway, Iceland, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia visiting Kiev recently -- all confirming their strong support for Ukraine, including transfer of military supplies, and financial support.
Get Ukraine more weapons now, urge European ministers in Kyiv – POLITICO

Official statement: Joint statement by the Foreign Ministers of Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Sweden and Ukraine - Government.se

(In case you wonder about Denmark "missing out"; they were in the midst of putting together a new government after recent elections. Denmark is also fully committed to supporting Ukraine).

ngatimozart · Dec 3, 2022

Various videos and updates on the war.

Five lessons from the war.

Gen Ben Hodges on the winter war.

BBC story on the Ukraine surrender line for Russians.

Satellite imagery suggesting new Russian missile blitz.

However as reported in The Warzone the number of aircraft at Engels bomber base is nothing unusual.

Surge In Russian Bombers At Air Base Not As Unusual As Reports Claim

A review of months worth of satellite imagery shows a recent uptick in Russian bombers at Engels Air Base in well in line with known trends.

www.thedrive.com

The Russians are also cracking down on military reporting.

Ukraine Situation Report: Russia Cracks Down On Military Reporting

A number of unclassified military topics are now being banned from public debate as Russia's war in Ukraine has turned into a quagmire.

www.thedrive.com

Russian media talking heads discussing the eradication of Ukraine. This is on mainstream Russian TV. Let them speak and condemn themselves from their own mouths.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1597089807171485696

swerve · Dec 3, 2022

Vivendi said:
In other news, Macron and Biden confirmed their strong support to Ukraine. No negotiations with Russia will happen unless the Ukranians themselves agree to it. It's good they make this clear; Ukraine is fighting, and Ukraine is deciding the political process. Not the US, not France, not NATO.
Biden, Macron reaffirm their strong partnership, support for Ukraine (cnbc.com)

And IIRC Putin has said Russia won't negotiate until the Russian annexation of Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhye & Kherson oblasts has been recognised, i.e. he's saying he won't negotiate unless he's handed victory, despite not even controlling the capital cities of two of those oblasts.

kato · Dec 3, 2022

Vivendi said:
Germany got the message:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1597676991574028290

Well, the 7 we're shipping now are the 7 that were remaining in stock since the company originally considered them no longer combat-worthy and wanted to scrap the hulls...

Feanor · Dec 3, 2022

Update. Nov 15th-19th

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Russian loitering munition hits an S-300 radar in Kherson region. Note this appears to be a Russian S-300 command post abandoned when retreating. It's also missing it's power generator suggesting it was in non-working condition.

Moscow calling

Очередной эпизод применения псевдоЛанцета - на этот раз против командного пункта 5Н63С из состава ЗРК С-300 ВСУ (или его макета - отсутствует телескопическая антенна и электрогенератор). На Z-улице праздник, транспорт из Ирана пришёл?

t.me

Moscow calling

Уважаемые Z-турбопатриоты, псевдоЛанцетная перемога с КП 5Н63С С-300 отменяется. Извините. Без электрогенератора и других приблуд вроде телескопической антенны командный пункт немного не функционирует (хотя в КУНГе можно поспать).

t.me

The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

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