The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

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What's the meaning of the "Z" sign in a square?
Is it typical Russian or a worldwide thing?
The photos are not great, but it doesn't look like a Z to me. It looks like a diagonal line running through a square. The Russian military uses many different tactical marking that distinguish units. I'm not well enough versed to say what this one means.
 

Feanor

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I was wrong. It is a Z and it's not a standard tactical markings. Unclear what it means since a cyrillic Z looks like З. Some of them are inside a square, some are not. One interpretation suggested by the VO group is that it refers to Zethes and Calais, the sons of the god of Northern Wind. The Northern Wind is a reference to Russian assistance to the rebels in the '14-'15 campaigns. It's rather fanciful interpretation, but as good as any at this point I suppose.

 

Feanor

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Update.

The Fighting.

Shellings continue across a broad area.


DNR MGB fought against an alleged group of Ukrainian fighters found inside Donetsk. One of them was captured alive. Two MGB soldiers were wounded.


There are reports that elements of Ukraine's 79th Para-Assault Bde attacked LNR positions near Pionerskoe village. The attack was allegedly repulsed. The attack involved an attempt to cross the Severskiy Donets river.


Footage of a Ukrainian checkpoint at Schatsye getting hit by rebel fire.


Ukraine's Minister of Internal Affairs came under fire when visiting the front line.


An interesting look at the recent flare up, including a map of where this is taking place. It's not spread out evenly. There is also a list of tanks, artillery, and SAMs, from both sides, spotted by OSCE observers. There's also some discussion suggesting that the recent claims by Ukraine that the rebels hit the kindergarten may not be true due to the angle of impact.


Russia.

Russia is closing airspace over the Azov Sea for exercises.


T-72B3s, BMP-2s, MT-LBs, TOS-1A, and Msta-S, moving around very close to the Ukrainian border.


It appears artillery shells and rockets landed on the Russia side of the border in recent exchanges of fire. This is not new, during the major campaigns in '14-'15 we saw many similar incidents.


Some footage of Russian MChS in Rostov region.


People crossing the border checkpoint into Russia.


Belarus.

Exercises continue.


The Rebels.

The rebels have published what they believe is Ukraine's plan of attack against them.


Some biased materials on the rebel's side by Patrick Lancaster. The first video is a series of interview with residents in an area getting shelled by Ukraine. The second is a very brief shot of an evacuation point. The third video is a discussion of Ukrainian shelling of an area. It includes a brief interview with a member of local municipal government, and a conversation with a rebel commander. Interestingly enough he (rebel commander) says that he doesn't think Ukraine will attack. It also has some interviews with residents. The fourth video is from inside a Donetsk military commissariat. It's a series of interviews with volunteers and conscripts joining the military, and commissariat service members. This our first confirmation that they're actually drafting people.


An explosion at an electrical substation in Donetsk, reasons are unclear. It may be related to the shellings. The second video won't play for me past the first few seconds. If it's the same that Lancaster talks about in video 3 above, then it's allegedly the result of shelling.


The burning gas line in the LNR.


2S1s rolling around the streets of Donetsk.


Ukraine.

A number of combat veterans from the US and UK have arrived as volunteers to train locals.


A look at the number of ceasefire violations currently occurring compared to recent times.


Zelenskiy says that Ukraine's non-nuclear status can be reconsidered if the signatories to the Budapesht memorandum don't carry out the security guarantees.


Misc.

Transnestrian armed forces have been placed on high alert. The breakaway province isn't even in Ukraine and is very far from the current fighting so its not immediately obvious why.


The UK is deploying additional troops to Estonia.

 

ngatimozart

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How accurate is that Russian source claiming Zelenskiy is threatening to revise Ukraine's non nuclear status? Because it is Russian that makes it highly suspect in the first place because it comes from a protagonist in the proceedings and I would suggest it would be part of Putin's plan for an excuse for his invasion. The only other agencies reporting it are Tass and an Iranian one, both well known for being unacquainted with facts. Sorry I know you work hard on these sources but I think this one is highly suspect.
 

Feanor

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How accurate is that Russian source claiming Zelenskiy is threatening to revise Ukraine's non nuclear status? Because it is Russian that makes it highly suspect in the first place because it comes from a protagonist in the proceedings and I would suggest it would be part of Putin's plan for an excuse for his invasion. The only other agencies reporting it are Tass and an Iranian one, both well known for being unacquainted with facts. Sorry I know you work hard on these sources but I think this one is highly suspect.
It appears that this is where this comes from. It's less of an open threat and more of a veiled hint.

Ukraine has received security guarantees for abandoning the world’s third nuclear capability. We don’t have that weapon. We also have no security. We also do not have part of the territory of our state that is larger in area than Switzerland, the Netherlands or Belgium. And most importantly – we don’t have millions of our citizens. We don’t have all this.

Therefore, we have something. The right to demand a shift from a policy of appeasement to ensuring security and peace guarantees.

Since 2014, Ukraine has tried three times to convene consultations with the guarantor states of the Budapest Memorandum. Three times without success. Today Ukraine will do it for the fourth time. I, as President, will do this for the first time. But both Ukraine and I are doing this for the last time. I am initiating consultations in the framework of the Budapest Memorandum. The Minister of Foreign Affairs was commissioned to convene them. If they do not happen again or their results do not guarantee security for our country, Ukraine will have every right to believe that the Budapest Memorandum is not working and all the package decisions of 1994 are in doubt.
Emphasis mine.

 

swerve

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Well, considering that one element of the Budapest memorandum was a promise by all the signatories (including Russia) to recognise Ukraine's sovereignty & integrity, including its borders, & Russia has been in open breach of that since 2014, it's hard to argue that he's being unreasonable.

I think that Russia is actually in breach of all the points of the memorandum except 5. "Refrain from the use of nuclear arms against Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine."
 

Arji

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There's a new development.

Russia accused Ukraine of incursion beyond the border. Probably a false flag, as the western intelligence had been saying.
 

Steinmetz

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We've got a lot of fighting words here. I think any hope of diplomacy has failed now and that we're on the precipice of war. Taking into account the many images and videos we've seen over the past two weeks, it sure looks like to me it was the final preparation/grouping stage for an incursion to commence. A long methodical build up, than a more messily and hastily action. Much like how the coalition did it in Gulf War 1. I have a feeling Putin will start off by officially recognizing the DNR and LNR as independent. That gives Moscow little in physical gains, but gives him a lot more leverage to provoke a larger scale conflict in the aftermath. I don't think the Ukrainians will let that happen, sitting down. Even if they try to not provoke the situation further, by just letting it happen, you have groups like the Azov Battalion that certainly act more on their own accord. So suffice to say, I think such an action would make the situation extremely messy, and the force presence at this point does not tell me it'll be limited in scope when it's all said and done.

Putin holds meeting with Security Council [TAPE]
 

Capt. Ironpants

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Thank you for posting the video, Steimetz. I have not watched all of it yet, but so far very sobering. Once again, Feanor's guess came true.

I noticed right away Putin had removed his watch and left it lying within normal camera view. I normally scoff at people who read something into such things, but this is Russia. Perhaps he just took off his watch because it was irritating him. But, in Russia, watches can have a special significance. If you give one as a gift to someone, it means you are are planning to end your relationship with the recipient, or at least very seriously considering it. "Time is up" or "time is running out." I don't know whether whether making something of a show of removing one's watch in such a setting has any significance. Maybe it means something slightly hopeful like "time is fluid" or something like "time does not matter here, we'll take all we need to discuss this (and come up with the answer I want?)". Perhaps someone here can enlighten me. I once worked closely with both Russian and Ukrainian officers, and I spent a chunk of time in Russia in the late 90s, and learned some of the ways there, but don't know about this. It made me strangely uneasy, but then everyone in that room was visibly uneasy.
 

Feanor

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Update.

The Fighting.

Allegedly a Ukrainian recon team crossed into Russia, was engaged by Russian Border Guard, and two BMPs came from the Ukrainian side to support. The recon team and both BMPs were destroyed. One Ukrainian soldier was captured alive. The alleged incident took place across the border from Lugansk, nowhere near the Azov sea.


Allegedly, a second Ukrainian recon time crossed the DNR front line near Shirokino, and entered the no-man's land between the Ukrainian state border and Russian state border. They apparently attacked a Russian FSB border post but were repelled. Two armored vehicles are claimed used, based on the footage provided they appear to be BTRs. Please note this report in particular looks fishy. The geography doesn't make sense, and the fact that it also involves "2 vehicles" raises questions if this and the other report actually refer to the same thing. On the other hand there were reports yesterday of a VSU breakthrough near Mariupol' so perhaps this is a separate incident.


A Russian border checkpoint in Rostov region was allegedly hit by a Ukrainian artillery shell.


Alleged footage of the Ukrainian artillery whose shells landed in Russia.


A Ukrainian recon team has broken through into the DNR and destroyed a munitions dump. They are now being engaged by rebel forces.


LNR artillery firing.


DNR forces are digging in.


A rebel ATGM launch against Ukrainian forces.


A Ukrainian ZiL truck destroyed near the Schastye checkpoint. Video of that checkpoint getting shelled is in the last update post.


A map of shelling from the OSCE, that shows most of the areas hit are on the rebel side of the demarcation line.


A Ukrainian BMP was destroyed in Lugansk region.


Russia.


A look at Russian aircraft concentrated near Ukraine.


The DNR and LNR have officially requested Russian recognition and it appears that Russia will recognize them. Putin has notified Sholtz and Macron.


A column of MT-LBs and T-80BVMs somewhere near Ukraine. Based on the units involved, it's likely the 200th Motor-Rifles.


More footage of the 200th Motor-Rifles near Ukraine.


A lonely Russian Msta-SM somewhere near the Ukrainian border.


An Iskander column, location unknown, likely related to the buildup.


Russian troop movements in Rostov region.


A Russian field hospital in Belgorod region.


More Russian troops marked with Zs including rear-end air defense units.


BMPTs near the Ukrainian border.


Russian Soldier's Mothers Committee is complaining that a number of Russian soldiers are staged at the Dolbino rail checkpoints and haven't been receiving MREs, instead are forced to spend their own money on food.


Russian warships have entered the Azov sea. They include very few warships but quite a few landing ships.


The Rebels.


A total of 770 000 residents of the rebel territories have Russian passports.


It appears the mobilization, at least in LNR territory, is voluntary. This makes sense. Not only is there no real way to forcibly mobilize people but also no way to effectively arm or organize the tens-hundreds of thousands in question.


Footage from a military commissariat in Lugansk.


Belarus.

Joint drills continue.


Starting February 21st Belarussian police is on high alert.


Ukraine.

Ukrainian para-assault troops conducting exercises.


More footage of Ukrainian territorial defense formations training.


Ukrainian MinDef Reznikov says it's incorrect to talk about Russian attack coming any day, and that Russia hasn't prepared strike groups on any axis of advance.


Leaked documents of the 72th Information Warfare Center in Ukraine show that their target was psychological warfare against Russian service members and their families.


The West.

The US says that Russian troops have received orders to invade Ukraine.


The US has warned its citizens of increased risks of terrorist attacks in Russia.

 

Steinmetz

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Capt. Ironpants

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These guys think this is only stage 1 and that Vlad is going for the whole country.
Man this world has gone crazy in the space of a couple of COVID years
It's a good site for checking out what the US hawk wing is putting out, but...

The lead author is Frederick Kagan, brother-in-law of Victoria Nuland who is married to his brother Robert Kagan. (Yes, the Vickie Nuland who passed out cookies at EuroMaidan, she of "F the EU" infamy".)

Agree all the way with your last sentence!
 

Feanor

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Russian troops have been given instructions to enter the Donbass and put an end to the fighting. The verbiage is that of peacekeeping operations, but it seems likely that we're looking at a 5-day war style of peacekeeping. The exact scope remains to be seen. It could simply be a deployment of Russian troops inside current LDNR boundries with counter-battery fire radars, heavy arty and missile presence, and plenty of airdefense, to shut down any Ukrainian units attempting to do anything other then sit there quietly. It could be a limited scope operation to push Ukrainian forces out of the Lugansk and Donetsk region entirely, either to the administrative border or some rough approximation there of (possibly along countours of helpful geographic features). It could be an all out attack to degrade the capabilities of the Ukrainian military moving forward, with an eventual withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine into the LDNR enclaves. It could be the beginning of a regime change operation whose goal is to remove the current government out of Ukraine all together, and install a new one, with the LNR and DNR remaining independent, and a "neutral" government in Kiev. It remains to be seen.

 

Feanor

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Updates.

The Fighting.

A destroyed Ukrainian BTR-70 from the southern recon team inside Russia. It appears that we are looking at two separate incidents. The second link has the alleged location of this incident, Rostov region at the Donetsk border.


Footage of the destroyed BMP-1 and 2 in the incident at the Lugansk border. The vehicles allegedly belong to Ukraine and were supporting a Ukrainian recon team that entered Russia.


Allegedly Russian forces entering the Donbass.


The Lugansk powerplant at Schastye is shut down due to combat action. This is probably connected to rebel artillery strikes against Ukrainian positions.


Russia.

T-80UDs and UKs near the Ukrainian border.


More Z marked units near Ukraine.


The rebels.

There are fireworks over Donetsk, presumably celebrating Russian recognition of independence. People are seeing in the streets waving Russian flags.


A military commissariat in Donetsk.


Ukraine.

Ukrainian troops with NLAWs on the front line.


Ukraine's Minister of Foreign Affairs denies that Ukraine sent any recon teams across the front line, or that they attacked any rebel positions.


Misc.

There is a spike in aircraft activity from the US near the Ukrainian border, but these are transport aircraft.

 
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