John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Please note my location. On occasion Canada even makes Indian military procurement look good. We can fluster cuck better than any other 5-eye or EU member and have the record to prove it.
The Royal Navy Discussions and Updates
- Thread starter overlander
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Tacticos CMS though with COMBATSS-21 like the future FFG(X) would be an interesting package for the neighbourhood we are in.
Hang on a minute John. How about NZ we virtually don't do any procurement - in fact last decade everything we did buy was basically rubbish not to put too finer word on it - not really any runs on the scoreboard at all ... at least you guys organised yourself enough to make a decision on the C-17 and C-130J when the opportunities arose.Please note my location. On occasion Canada even makes Indian military procurement look good. We can fluster cuck better than any other 5-eye or EU member and have the record to prove it.
Though the RN does seem to be struggling in this area not helped by the attitudes of Whitehall and at times industry.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
The C-17 and C-130J acquisitions were no brainers that we despartly needed. The pollies knew they needed to buy something to impress NATO with regards to Afghanistan and the US more importantly. Bottom line, both countries should be taken to the wood-shed and have some sense beaten into them.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
With regards to the RN, UK industry and Whitehall, they really should be doing some soul searching. If the Type 26 design had been sorted much earlier and if ships were starting to enter the water a couple of years ago the chances for the design being selected by other 5 eyes would be higher. That’s a potential for 40-45 ships along with whatever the UK orders.
Everyone headed down different tangents - the US into its LCS cul-de-sac- for example the RN into its GCS.
Putting on a hindsight hat again if things were different - I have at times pondered if an agreed common FVEY frigate had been conceptualised and worked through by a joint working group - seeking to provide for the 5 parties - pro-rata economic benefits, local yard builds to boost industry, pro-rata industry involvement, opportunity for sub-project specialisations, across the 5 countries. Lets be realistic it would have US leadership and they would have a good fair slice of the pie, but with some local variations, options, preferences, and specialisations such as CEAFAR for example, or a choice of LM2500 or MT30, but leverage as much of the common requirements as possible viz Mk41 VLS, 127mm Mod 4 et al.
For example at least 12 RCN, 13 RN, 9 RAN, 3 RNZN and 50 odd USN vessels would approach 100 vessels. The RN would have ended with a world class vessel that would be cheaper than what will come through the Type 26 / 31e pipeline. If we can operationally work together to a high degree of complexity - then building together could have been possible. Oh well didn't happen ....
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
With US economic power in decline, the US may view FVEY projects as a more affordable route in the future in order to maintain a defensive edge. Certainly the other members would benefit as well. We can only hope.
t68
Well-Known Member
Give It too the RAN as an ASW carrier with secondary amphibious role like an enlarged Cavour
I would not quite say the US economy is under a state of decline John as there are a reversal of economic fortunes - growth is likely to exceed 4% and coupled with improving employment numbers it is heading in the right direction. It is resilient and even its largish government debt ratio it is 20% less than its 1946 height. Both its major global geo-political rivals possess significant economic challenges concerning debt. One of the interesting things that is emerging and not understood is the US powerplay which is the reseting global trade - because it has to - as so to avoid future decline. Its rationale being the worlds largest and most diverse economy is not benefitting from global trade (a net trade loss of $800B per annum) yet is paying the lions share for maintaining the peace and security of those global trade routes. The EU is squealing due to tariffs but they collectively spend just €200B across its 28 member states on Defence of which 45% or €90B is spent by just France and the soon to depart the UK. The message being that the free lunch is over and that defence and trade are not mutually exclusive. Are you listening Mr Trudeau, Ms Ardern and Mrs May?
I would also include the +Asian 3 allies (RoK, Japan and Singapore) in this and not just an "anglosphere" defence technology, R&D and manufacturing group.the US may view FVEY projects as a more affordable route in the future in order to maintain a defensive edge. Certainly the other members would benefit as well. We can only hope.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
In 1946 the US had no major economic competitors of note and represented 60% of the world's manufacturing capacity. It was much easier to pay down that government debt ratio then. Today the growth is encouragingly sight but the deficit spending continues with no end and then there are the huge entitlement payouts that will be occurring in the next 20 years. The USA today represents about 25% of the world economy
Just about the entire world is awash in debt. Russia and China do have some significant issues.
How much of that trade imbalance is of their own making? US business has moved a tremendous amount of manufacturing overseas and these products of US corporations then become imports. Then there is the issue of huge cash reserves these companies have offshore.
True enough and clearly Germany is a huge part of the imbalance despite being Europe's biggest exporter.
The Steel and aluminium imports are a threat to US security so we are applying tariffs. Trump claims he is a salesman but BS like this won't win any sales. A straight up approach, either spend what is needed or we will impose tariffs to use towards offsetting our defence burden looking after you would be a better approach. As to who is listening, May has no money, Trudeau is almost in the same boat and I don't know about Ardem.
Yes
Historically quite a lot. Since the Reagan era and particularly during the Clinton era manufacturing offshore rose dramatically. Trump has been forcing them home particularly from Mexico. That pressure play was the first chess piece move.
Which are providing a fair bit of liquidity and resilience in global markets and quite a bit of it (100s of billions) is held within US controlled Private Equity groups which are now going to be taxed by the aptly named GILTI “global intangible low-taxed income” levy. It is carrot and stick methodology. Come home to lower taxes or face bigger penalties like GILTI.
It will be interesting to see how Germany is played.
Subtly is not Trumps best characteristic. The tariffs are as always a negotiation tactic which leads from the best position and demonstrate that you will do what you mean to. Like a bucket of cold water been thrown in the face or the making of an offer you cannot refuse. Often with carrot and stick tactics the stick is waved around first then the carrot.
May and the UK will find itself in a fairly lonely place if the EU plays Johan no mates post Brexit, and the US and the commonwealth really not caring about it or needing it. It will need to start looking like a "power" again if it wants to maintain any influence. If it wants to be a global player in trade then it is going to have to do better than possessing a 1/3 of say Japan's surface combatant fleet for a start. Ms Adern ... imagine Juniors little sister.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Junio's little sister....now I understand your concern.
The commonwealth? I take a bit of issue with the way that is banded about these days, particularly related to Brexit and the Type 26.
I'm not directing this at anyone on the forum. But as some southern perspective:
The UK left the colonies to burn to join the EU. Does no one remember Menzies.
Canada was picked up in NAFTA, but Australia and NZ had to fend for our own, after you also decided to leave East of the Suez. Economically, military all alone. Picking up the pieces of failed colonialism (of all of europe) and WW2 breakages.
Now the commonwealth is going to save the UK? Who and want is the commonwealth in that context? India? Fiji? Singapore?
The other aspect is that Britain doesn't really want a free trade with Australia, because Australia would be very competitive on a range of areas. We haven't been living in a protected EU bubble. We took our medicine in the 1980's. The UK are 40 years behind, there will be pain to get to the gains.
While Britain is making up its mind if it can afford to give up sheep farming in Wales the EU has been knocking on our door.
The EU pursues $15b free trade talks with Australia, but there's a catch
Meanwhile China is playing hardball with trade spiking Australia and the US against each other.
For all of Britain's talk, Boris's talk of UK SCS activities, the UK has stumbled over its commitments in the much closer and easier middle east, and finds itself in a very vulnerable position economically.
Now with the Type 26 looking more like a dream and a prayer, under minded by its own procurement processes, the UK isn't looking very credible. Type 45's aren't exactly impressing in availability and presence. The UK is also seemingly occupied in Europe with a resurgent Russia.
Meanwhile in Australia, we are openly talking rebellion and literally waiting for the Queen to keel over before burning the union jack and the family, and promoting the Australian Republic. Well it is an open conversation at least. We have been busy arresting any politician with dubious heritage and ensuring our political system can't be contaminated by the commonwealth.
Taking Australia, NZ and Canada out of the equation leaves what of the commonwealth. UK doesn't contribute to aid in the pacific region, heck it doesn't even have high commissions in some of the former colonies.. Last time they saw the union jack on a ship was back in the 50's when Phillip came to visit them. India? Pakistan? Boris is going to hit them up under the banner of the commonwealth? I think they would rather deal with the EU.
The whole continuous ships & submarine building program is the eventual evolution of departing from looking up to Britain and the US as superiors, giver of hardware, and being a peer. Basically taking that tech tree, branching it, and making it our own and quickly running with it.
I hope Canada and the US follow in our wake and select the same ship as Australia. It will make it a lot easier to move disillusioned crews across.
As for countries like Singapore, Korea and Japan, I think they might be more interested in what eventually starts rolling out of Australian ship yards. Japan with a shrinking population, limited defence budget, and pushing needs will want to get out of the US clone business, and talk about something more man power efficient and something they can support as per the Standing forces Agreement. Singapore has an increasingly deep relationship with Australia.
I'm not directing this at anyone on the forum. But as some southern perspective:
The UK left the colonies to burn to join the EU. Does no one remember Menzies.
Canada was picked up in NAFTA, but Australia and NZ had to fend for our own, after you also decided to leave East of the Suez. Economically, military all alone. Picking up the pieces of failed colonialism (of all of europe) and WW2 breakages.
Now the commonwealth is going to save the UK? Who and want is the commonwealth in that context? India? Fiji? Singapore?
The other aspect is that Britain doesn't really want a free trade with Australia, because Australia would be very competitive on a range of areas. We haven't been living in a protected EU bubble. We took our medicine in the 1980's. The UK are 40 years behind, there will be pain to get to the gains.
While Britain is making up its mind if it can afford to give up sheep farming in Wales the EU has been knocking on our door.
The EU pursues $15b free trade talks with Australia, but there's a catch
Meanwhile China is playing hardball with trade spiking Australia and the US against each other.
For all of Britain's talk, Boris's talk of UK SCS activities, the UK has stumbled over its commitments in the much closer and easier middle east, and finds itself in a very vulnerable position economically.
Now with the Type 26 looking more like a dream and a prayer, under minded by its own procurement processes, the UK isn't looking very credible. Type 45's aren't exactly impressing in availability and presence. The UK is also seemingly occupied in Europe with a resurgent Russia.
Meanwhile in Australia, we are openly talking rebellion and literally waiting for the Queen to keel over before burning the union jack and the family, and promoting the Australian Republic. Well it is an open conversation at least. We have been busy arresting any politician with dubious heritage and ensuring our political system can't be contaminated by the commonwealth.
Taking Australia, NZ and Canada out of the equation leaves what of the commonwealth. UK doesn't contribute to aid in the pacific region, heck it doesn't even have high commissions in some of the former colonies.. Last time they saw the union jack on a ship was back in the 50's when Phillip came to visit them. India? Pakistan? Boris is going to hit them up under the banner of the commonwealth? I think they would rather deal with the EU.
The whole continuous ships & submarine building program is the eventual evolution of departing from looking up to Britain and the US as superiors, giver of hardware, and being a peer. Basically taking that tech tree, branching it, and making it our own and quickly running with it.
I hope Canada and the US follow in our wake and select the same ship as Australia. It will make it a lot easier to move disillusioned crews across.
As for countries like Singapore, Korea and Japan, I think they might be more interested in what eventually starts rolling out of Australian ship yards. Japan with a shrinking population, limited defence budget, and pushing needs will want to get out of the US clone business, and talk about something more man power efficient and something they can support as per the Standing forces Agreement. Singapore has an increasingly deep relationship with Australia.
I think these videos sum up the conversation above.
And on a serious note this one has the NZ view interspersed with a UK film against the UK joining the EEC (EU). The kiwi is Sir Keith Holyoake then NZ PM.
My own view is that the Australia, Canada & New Zealand should forge a defence grouping consisting of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Japan, Singapore, South Korea and maybe India. Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Japan & Singapore are already part of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) so linkages are already present and defence and security are also part of the trade and diplomatic tools of a govt.
No, at least not economically. The Indians are licking their lips at the prospect of dealing with the UK outside the EU, as they're sure that they can get better terms from 65 million people desperate to sell abroad because of a big balance of payments deficit than >500 million with a healthy balance. They've been talking a lot about the concessions they expect to get.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Will the Indians get these concessions? Even if they do, how long will the UK have to wait for a firm order?
And, just to round out the visuals, SUTHERLAND (at bottom) with (L-R) SIRIUS, CANBERRA and PARRAMATTA in Bass Strait during FCP.Currently working with JMSDF, with ALBION also in the neighbourhood. ARGYLL due in a couple of months. Credible report in South China Morning Post this week that a combined RN-French task group will shortly do a FONOP in some of the SCS's more interesting waters.
ALBION and ARGYLL also slated for forthcoming FPDA jointex, off Malaysia.
I don't know what they'll get, but it shows the general attitude of the UK's trading partners outside the EU to what Brexit means for them. The dreams of the Brexiteers definitely aren't going to come true, but nor are India & the like going to give the UK the cold shoulder for being outside. They see it as an opportunity to put the screws on us.
A final nice pic for week is in order.
The RN's 820 NAS, with ASW Merlin, recently hosted two Romeos of RAN 816 Sqn for NATO ex Joint Warrior. The ASWEX component was by far the biggest element, and the Pingers operated together from Stornoway, in the Outer Hebrides.
RAAF C-17 dropped off the Romeos at Brize Norton and loaded for home at Lossiemouth.
On a related note of RN FAA working with allies, regardless of distance, there's a 2-ship det of (Lynx) Wildcats from 847 NAS embarked in the French LHD DIXMUDE as she works her way around the Pacific.
Family pic of 820 and 816 at ENDEX.
The RN's 820 NAS, with ASW Merlin, recently hosted two Romeos of RAN 816 Sqn for NATO ex Joint Warrior. The ASWEX component was by far the biggest element, and the Pingers operated together from Stornoway, in the Outer Hebrides.
RAAF C-17 dropped off the Romeos at Brize Norton and loaded for home at Lossiemouth.
On a related note of RN FAA working with allies, regardless of distance, there's a 2-ship det of (Lynx) Wildcats from 847 NAS embarked in the French LHD DIXMUDE as she works her way around the Pacific.
Family pic of 820 and 816 at ENDEX.
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