The possibilities of a Sino-Indian border war in the next decade.

[OPSSG]

Broadly, I see the glass as half full and you see the glass as half empty (with regards to China). And we may both yet be correct.

On a good day I like to be in agreement with what you say, but I, sadly, think that things are going to go bad.

One of the joys and pain in taking part in a forum where the members are from different countries. The presence of a diversity of opinions.

Let's view it from a "western" viewpoint. While I don't think that china relatively will reach western economical standards for the next 50 years, China doesn't have to, in order to become a economical power the equal of the west. This, I think, is not a problem in it self, in a capitalistic system we should prosper by china's rising prosperity and all should be good.

Part of the reason for China's rapid economic growth initially was the huge influx of foreign direct investments (FDI) into China to serve external markets. Today, China's listed companies are starting to go abroad and making their own FDI decisions in other countries. Fundamentally, China currently lacks an internal consumer market and needs to rely on exports for continued economic growth. China's consumer market is nothing compared to the dynamics and money-rotating consumer atmosphere in Hong Kong, the EU or the US. A fact that the Communist Party of China (CPC) is also aware. If the investment and consumption cycles are not disrupted, there is every chance of rising prosperity.

I note that our discussion is moving further and further away from the topic being discussed and I'll like to stop, out of respect for the topic starter.

My best hope, OPSSG, is the interest in making money. Greed is, after all, perhaps our best hope for peaceful coexistence!

IMO, there's plenty of greed to go around.

 

[A.Mookerjee]

In his latest blog entry Iskander Rehman takes a look at the rapidly deteriorating security situation along India's Northeastern border with China. He says that although things are tense and both countires have massively reinforced their military presence along the LAC or line of actual control,some of the claims in the Indian media that a Chinese attack will occur in the next five to ten years may be somewhat overstated.
He does stress the fact, however, that things are volatile and unpredictable, and that India should prepare for any contingency.
What do people think of his analysis? After reading the article do you think this is a crisis the world may have to deal with in the course of the next decade?

India and the world.

Both India and China need to keep credibility as peace loving responsible nations, who can, with the United States keep peace in Asia. I believe, Asia is going to be assisted because Japan, China and India are going to grow economically, and this will act as an impetus for the rest of Asia. If I may make a correction, Japan has grown economically. It is true, that the Chinese military might in Asia, is only considered when one considers India. India and China have the largest military forces in Asia. But, India will be China's largest trade partner in the future, perhaps. India and China have the opportunity in trading terms with each other, because they are neighbors. In Asia, the other nations will grow at their pace, but I do not see other important trading nations like Indonesia, and Malaysia, being of very great importance individually in trading terms on a large scale. It is true, that weapons systems like the Su-30 Mk-1 is not purchased by India with Pakistan in mind. The Su-30 can stay airborne it is said, for quite a number of hours. An air force conflict between Pakistan and India, will not need the Su-30 Mk-1. The Su-30 was considered when Mr George Fernandez was the defense minister, and the then defense minister called China "threat No 1", or something to that effect. India has a defensive aviation doctrine. For the Sukhoi 30 to be effective, the aircraft needs to defend with flying for around six hours a sortie. This can only be required, if India was to combat a large number of aircraft. Perhaps, India is looking at 300 Sukhoi's in her arsenal. The other multi role aircraft have their own uses, which India wants to tender and procure. I do not see India and China involved in a conflict, which will strain relations between the nations, and strain relations in Asia. If India or China were to occupy territory of the neighboring nation after a conflict, then that would be the end of the India China relationship.

 

[OPSSG]

There's a Washington Times article on the PLA, which deals with their modernization efforts in non-technical terms below:

People's Army not standing still

Aug 12, 2009 - The first unfolding trend line is the professionalization of the PLA. Central authorities embarked on a course to professionalize the PLA a decade and a half ago, and the results of those policies are coming to fruition in the form of a more competent and capable military. PLA business enterprises have closed so military officers no longer have to choose between running a business and professional training.

Corruption is being exposed, and merit-based promotions are now the norm. A streamlined PLA has also transferred domestic security missions to the People's Armed Police, so the PLA can focus more intensely on traditional military missions. And perhaps most important, the quality of PLA training has improved toward greater joint force cooperation as well as more realistic scenarios across a wide range of contingencies.

The second trend to note is China's continuing advances in defense-industrial capability. After decades of reverse engineering from foreign technologies and experimentation through domestic research and development, the PLA is moving closer to a sustainable modern indigenous defense-industrial system. The PLA of the near future will be less vulnerable to potential supply disruptions in time of conflict, and will be better positioned to acquire the specific capabilities required for China's unique circumstances.

The third trend line relates to China's acquisition strategy. It is a priority for China to acquire capabilities specifically oriented toward countering U.S. military strengths. China's aerospace programs in anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) and anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons are potential "game-changers" for U.S. operations. A successful ASBM program could expand the threat envelope for U.S. aircraft carriers to a distance where traditional carrier-based flight operations become impractical. Likewise, the ASAT program threatens satellites that the U.S. military relies on for intelligence, communication and navigation.

A fourth trend line also relates to PLA acquisitions, but it also speaks to evolving doctrine, strategy and tactics. China is investing heavily in the next generation of asymmetric warfare capabilities. This is most evident in Chinese cyberwarfare capabilities...

...

Finally, China's burgeoning foreign military diplomacy presents a new and difficult set of challenges for the United States and our allies. The PLA is actively pursuing the objective of extended its global reach and influence through securing strategic access to key ports and bases... This threatens to alter the strategic balance, not only by expanding PLA reach, but also by potentially limiting or denying access for the United States and others in the same areas...

While the above article has a limited utility, it's a good starting point to frame a discussion on the latest PLA developments over the last 5 years. One of our moderators has produced a list of the top 20 systems that joined PLA service which may be of interest. IMO, a lot of the systems in top 20 list is geared towards dealing with Taiwan (as an important symbolic issue and naval security issue), though a few of those 20 systems listed would clearly have an impact on the Indian geo-strategic calculus.

IMO, a strategic planning for potential conflict over Taiwan will continue to dominate China's geo-political calculus (for more details, read this article by George Friedman). For China, the primary problem posed by Taiwan is naval. Taiwan is positioned in such a way that it can readily serve as an air and naval base that could isolate maritime movement between the South China Sea and the East China Sea, effectively leaving the northern Chinese coast and Shanghai isolated. Taiwan would not be important to China unless it became actively hostile or allied with or occupied by a hostile power such as the United States. If that happened, its geographical position would pose an extremely serious problem for China. Therefore the greatest military threat to China is the USN (and it is not India). As far as the Chinese flow of imports and exports is concerned, the Malacca Strait, is a key chokepoint (see: 'Chokepoints: Maritime Ec Concerns in SE Asia').

Today, China (with a GDP of about US$4.4 trillion and a population of over 1.33 billion) is highly dependent on seaborne trade and the USN is in a position to blockade China's trade, if it wished. Therefore, China's primary military interest is to raise the price of a blockade so high that the Americans would not attempt it. However, China continues to face the law of unintended consequences with her naval build up.

Let me explain further. Each time China launches a new submarine or deploys a new weapons system, a small bell of alarm would go off in Japan (with a GDP of about US$4.92 trillion and a population of over 127 million). Other US allies like S. Korea (with a GDP of about US$947 billion and a population of over 49 million) and Australia (with a GDP of about US$1.01 trillion and a population of over 21 million) are also monitoring the situation closely. IMO, it is not a coincidence that Japan, operates 6 AEGIS vessels in 2 classes (with the Atago class and the Kongo class) and S. Korea, operates 6 KDX-II AGEIS vessels and is planning to operate another 3 KDX-III class AEGIS vessels. Australia is also planning to build 3 AEGIS vessels. Further, all 3 US-allied countries build and operate their own very capable submarine fleets.

Imagine the alarm bells going off in the capitals of the various countries in the Asia Pacific, if there was a resurgence of actual armed conflict in involving China and India at their border regions (or for that matter, Vietnam or Malaysia over in the South China Sea). I'm sure the above 'neutrals' mentioned will be driven deeper into the US's embrace, as they seek a counter weight to China's rise. IMO, it is not in China's national interest to unite the divergent interests present in the Asia Pacific by presenting herself as the 'clear and present danger' to be guarded against (when China's soft power is making significant inroads).

 

[Palnatoke]

OPSSG

While I generally agree with your analysis and finds it sound, I think you are forgetting what I consider to be the most likely confrontation(s) and resons for confrontation.

Consider, Oil. In 25 years it's a fair guess that most of the known and remaining oil ressources wiil be concentrated in the ME and Russia.

The importance of a, future, powerfull China is the abillity for regimes in ME but also Russia to use China as a balance against the US and EU. I suggest that in the future we will see a lot of, mostly "cold" but also "hot" conflicts in the ME (a volatile and dysfunctional region), either directly involving US/EU or proxies thereoff. China will get involved in the mess, (because it, as we have assumed, can ) Though this will most likely take place per proxy.

This will be the main global confrontation of the future. Countries like India or the asian countries won't be able to stay out of this confrontation. And this estabishes the hostile relation.

Secondly, I believe that countries like India and China are in a position to "thrive on the other's demise". By that I mean that while the US/EU trades with China to mutual benefit. It's a little bit more hard to see India's advantage in trading with China- a country that got a 100% comparativ advantage and is richer with, for an unforseeable future, a huge untapped human ressource pool. Further more India and China competes directly in attracting foreign direct investments. At some point India must realize that they need the labour intensive industry to develop their socity. Industry that China has attracted while India more or less slept while dreaming of a highly advanced economy that's only real for a limited number of indians.

So while EU/US will feel threathed by China, they will have the benefit of trade to moderate possible excesses. India will more likely have an interest in trading less, and that other people trades less, with China.

 

[OPSSG]

While I generally agree with your analysis and finds it sound, I think you are forgetting what I consider to be the most likely confrontation(s) and reasons for confrontation.

I only entered this thread to provide a different perspective (and to point out some areas not previously considered). I certainly don't intend to try to change anyone's existing or considered point of view on the prospects of a Sino-Indian conflict.

IMO, we are looking at the situation from different perspectives and possibly using different basic assumptions.

Consider, Oil. In 25 years it's a fair guess that most of the known and remaining oil resources will be concentrated in the ME and Russia.

That is possible, but I really don't have an informed opinion on oil reserves. I admit I don't know. The topic of oil reserves is not something I read about in-depth, though I'm aware of a few unflattering articles on China and her need for oil.

The importance of a, future, powerful China is the ability for regimes in ME but also Russia to use China as a balance against the US and EU. I suggest that in the future we will see a lot of, mostly "cold" but also "hot" conflicts in the ME (a volatile and dysfunctional region), either directly involving US/EU or proxies thereof. China will get involved in the mess, (because it, as we have assumed, can ) Though this will most likely take place per proxy.

I don't know. You are citing too many variables. I can't express an opinion on such complex interactions between so many parties (especially if we have to take into account the various proxies, some of whom may not act rationally). IMO, the scope you propose for the discussion is just too wide for me to even attempt a response. This is because any wide ranging discussion of the scope you propose will lead me to express my thoughts about various groups in a over simplified manner that may lead to stereotyping. I believe that if we stereotype, it often says more about us than the group/country we are ostensibly discussing.

Secondly, I believe that countries like India and China are in a position to "thrive on the other's demise". By that I mean that while the US/EU trades with China to mutual benefit. It's a little bit more hard to see India's advantage in trading with China- a country that got a 100% comparative advantage and is richer with, for an unforeseeable future, a huge untapped human resource pool. Further more India and China competes directly in attracting foreign direct investments. At some point India must realize that they need the labour intensive industry to develop their society. Industry that China has attracted while India more or less slept while dreaming of a highly advanced economy that's only real for a limited number of Indians.

I admit that I don't understand how you arrived at your position.

Edit: IMHO, China and India are serving different niches in the world economy and there is only some overlap. In other words, in the international division of labour, they are not really competing with each other. Further, any remaining Indian hindrances to FDI are in part driven by their prior attempt at self-sufficiency and current Indian bureaucratic inertia. The Indian legislative framework, the existence of corruption, the inability of the Indian Government to remove bottlenecks to development and the impact of their domestic politics results in a business environment that is not conclusive to larger FDI inflows. Therefore, I don't think the Indians want to compete on the same basis for FDI nor would they want so much change in such a short time.

So while EU/US will feel threatened by China, they will have the benefit of trade to moderate possible excesses. India will more likely have an interest in trading less, and that other people trades less, with China.

I don't understand the basis upon which you can postulate as a source of Sino-Indian conflict. To be clear, I do not disagree with you. I can't agree or disagree when I don't understand the point you are making. Sorry. :unknown

 

[OPSSG]

This is my last post on this thread, as I do think we are moving towards off-topic territory.

I agree with you Palnatoke.

Unfortunately, China's nefarious policies in support of despicable regimes do not only extend to Africa, but also to Burma, Pakistan, North Korea, and the list goes on.

Wherever there are massive human rights violations, you can generally find a CCP official discreetly negotiating the construction of a mine, a pipeline, or handing out wads of cash and shiploads of weaponry. Chinese officials only recently seem to be catching on the disastrous effect this has on China's standing in world affairs.

I agree with you too. Sad isn't it, so many despicable regimes in this despicable world.

In that part of the world, Myanmar, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal can count on some Chinese support to varying degree all because of that despicable Indian regime being their neighbor.

This will be the main global confrontation of the future. Countries like India or the Asian countries won't be able to stay out of this confrontation. And this establishes the hostile relation.

Countries are not people. Countries do not act out of an emotion or because it is moral to do so. Most of the time, countries act to further their national interests. Therefore, anthropomorphizing countries is not particularly useful when looking at the geopolitical reality and people who persist on doing so are posturing. All I ask is that a forum participant in this thread measure both China and India by the same yard stick of their respective national interests, which is in-turn informed by their geo-political reality.

If we are not to be blindly Sino-phobic, wouldn't India also have growing oil and natural resource needs? Keep in mind also that China's one-child policy has ensured that her demographics will change rapidly within this generation. What are the Indians doing to ensure their future energy and resource security?

What about India who will in time become the most populous nation in the world? Keep in mind that India has 456 million people living under the poverty line (42% of the total Indian population) and about 300 million people without primary education. How does India intend to feed their illiterate, poor and hungry? These are some of the questions an objective forum participant in this thread will need to ask.

 

[charles34]

whose side would russia and japan be on if china and india went to war?

 

[The Swordman]

China and India in the near future

The one-child policy worked for China for many years but will not work in the near future. An aging population, think about Japan or Italy, put up a big problem about healtcare and retirement programs. China government knows that for sure but find a new equilibrium will not be easy.
India is growing in multiple directions, with little coordination and a lack of a nation-wide perspective. In the near future that country will become the most populated in the world with the same lack of economical equilibrium that exists today.
The need of raw resources will grove for both countries as of the need for more and more food. Africa and the south east Asia will become the confrontation ground.

 

[woden]

whose side would russia and japan be on if china and india went to war?

Thanks for putting the conversation back on track
If there was a border conflict in-between India and China it's highly unlikely that either Japan or the Russian Federation would step in militarily.
Japan, however, would undoubtedly be behind India, as both countries espouse the same democratic values and share security concerns regarding Chinese naval expansion and nationalism. India is concerned by China's said 'string of pearls' strategy and Japan is riled by China's increasingly belligerent stance in the South China Sea and around the disputed Senkaku Islands. In 2005 several cities in China were shook by violent anti-Japanese riots and a recent issue of the PRC funded Global Times published an intensely xenophobic editorial on India.
Both India and Japan have therefore greatly upgraded their military ties over the past four to five years in order to counter the growing Chinese threat in their backyards and regularly participate in joint naval exercises. In the event of a Sino-Indian conflict, Japan would probably diplomatically back India and discreetly provide intelligence on China's naval deployments in case the PRC chose to escalate things beyond a merely land-based border conflict.
Russia, on the other hand, would be caught in something of a quandary. Moscow and New Delhi have a long history of cooperation, and Russia does still have some abiding security concerns vis-à-vis China, mostly to do with the alleged stealing of Russian military technology and the waves of illegal Chinese immigration swamping some remote areas of Siberia. Both countries are also vying for influence in Central Asia, which has become the theatre for a new form of Great Game.
At the same time, both Russia and China are members of the SCO, and both states have managed to normalize their relations after years of hostility. Russia would probably not want to throw that all to the wind by publicly backing India. Once again, however, one cannot discount the possibility of Russia discreetly providing India with intelligence on Chinese troop deployments, or with advanced military hardware that the PRC do not have access to. This could give India more of an 'edge' in the event of a conflict.

 

[funtz]

There is a balance in the current line of control, and the only available option is to accept the ground reality and the existing border, India and PRC do not possess the capability to take over land the land they claim, they can fight all they want in the air or the sea, but the dotted line in the map is not going to change.

So why would there be a conflict?

Reasons for resources and economy seem to be very immature, as a conflict is a the thing that will make the situation worse.

 

[julnap]

I don't think China would attack India as Taiwan and the South China Sea take higher priorities.

I can't say if India would attack China though - that is a possibility

 

[funtz]

There is no place from where an Indian attack on PRC is feasible.

Along Leh & Laddak, Uttarakhand, Sikkim, and Arunachal Pradesh there is an established balance.

 

[Sten]

Does anyone have more info on Chinese force structure in Tibet? Iskander Rehman touches on it in the article but it would be good to have some more info on the forces in presence on both sides of the LAC.

You can easily find these information if you are still interested. I see this thread is 2 years old. I am new though. The link is sinodefence - com (I am not allowed to post links )

# 52nd Infantry Brigade
# 53rd Infantry Brigade
# 54th Infantry Regiment
# Signals Regiment

Group army 13, stationed in Chongqin (some 2000 km away from Sino-India border) is probably the major force prepared for war with India.

Group army 14, stationed in Yunnan is in the same military region (Chengdu military region) but it is probably primarily aimed for Burma / Vietnam

 

[idiana]

How weak the Indian Army during 1962 border war against PRC´s Army, what a unfortunate time whereby India lost so much territory ! God bless India and they rise someday to recapture what they lost !

The PRC now maintain their territorial ambition by the scouts and observation along Sino-India border, what a shameful harassment.

 

[dragonfire]

How weak the Indian Army during 1962 border war against PRC´s Army, what a unfortunate time whereby India lost so much territory ! God bless India and they rise someday to recapture what they lost !

The PRC now maintain their territorial ambition by the scouts and observation along Sino-India border, what a shameful harassment.

Please do read the forum rules ASAP so that you do not get the boot from the Mod team, this forum is helpful for those who can follow the rules; and not only generate but also provide info. GoodLuck !