Spratly Islands - News and Discussions

Status
Not open for further replies.

Chino

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
When I was in China I became aware that the Chinese nationalist’s, of which there are many, do in fact care strongly about Spartlys. It is immaterial that their claims to these half submerged, uninhabited rocks so far from their own shoes are just plain silly, they just believe it and that it is very imporaint. That is in the end all that counts. I could go into the reasons why but they are irrational ones but people often believe in irrational things and in this the Chinese are not alone.

It is no different than it was and still is for the Argentina’s and in their irrational belief about the Falkland’s. At some point they will probably be willing to fight. You cannot reason with them about their core beliefs.

The US concern is with the principal of the freedom of the seas and not with any of the possible resources that may or may not be there to be exploited. This makes it in to an international issue far beyond what the Chinese nationalist’s believe it to be or believe it not to be. If it is not successful address it will someday lead to a very destructive war, where even at its best everyone will lose.

It will not happen today and probably not within the next dozen years but it is coming just as sure as the sun rises. The reason why I am so concerned is though there are many issues to be settled which come along with the rise of China as a new world power, I can foresee peaceful and productive solutions to all of them with exception of this one. Why? Because of the very nature of the Chinese nationalist’s belief is in fact, an irrational one. For all people everywhere, be it some form of nationalism, a religion or even for some moral precepts which are not in and of themselves purely rational things for humman's to possess but are never-the-less are very important things to the lives of real people, the tendency is for people everywhere is to resort to the use of power to get there way.

If you see any flaw in my reasoning please point it out to me because I would really like to be wrong.
I am not in any position to offer any educated opinions on what you just mentioned.

But I do know about the Chinese "nationalists" after having lived here for 10 years.

If you go to a room full of "nationalists" talking about the Spratlys or even the much more important Diaoyutai, and say, "here is a rifle and a uniform and it's time for walking the talk". You'd suddenly have a very empty room. Not because they are necessarily all cowardly, but there is in reality really nothing to lose over either of these places. It is just idle talk among idle youths.

I don't want to go into other issues concerning US/China, war, who is the good guy etc.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
By virtue of the fact that Chino has been working in China for many years, I think we can agree that he is much more in tuned or aware of local feelings/sentiments there regarding the Spratleys. Apart from neo-nationalists or frustrated and bored youths, the Spratlys is not a matter of the upmost importance for the average Chinese citizen and in terms of national awareness awareness, the Spratlys has not reached the same level as Tibet and Tukerstan [Xinjiang].

Now we can debate over the wrongs and right regarding the Chinese claim all we want, and talk about freedom of the seas and the Philipinno members here can claim that part of the Spratleys are an indespustable part of the Philipinnes just as much as say Palawan or Cebu - the fact remains that there is nothing we can do about it apart from engaging in diplomacy. China is very unlikely to take the Spratlys by military means as this would be counter productive and it has more pressing matters to attend to but if it did, there is not a single thing the other 5 claiments can do about it.
 
Last edited:

rip

New Member
By virtue of the fact that Chino has been working in China for many years, I think we can agree that he is much more in tuned or aware of local feelings/sentiments there regarding the Spratleys. Apart from neo-nationalists or frustrated and bored youths, the Spratlys is not a matter of the upmost importance for the average Chinese citizen and in terms of national awareness awareness, the Spratlys has not reached the same level as Tibet and Tukerstan [Xinjiang].

Now we can debate over the wrongs and right regarding the Chinese claim all we want, and talk about freedom of the seas and the Philippinno members here can claim that part of the Spratleys are an indespustable part of the Philipinnes just as much as say Palawan or Cebu - the fact remains that there is nothing we can do about it apart from engaging in diplomacy. China is very unlikely to take the Spratlys by military means as this would be counter productive and it has more pressing matters to attend to but if it did, there is not a single thing the other 5 claiments can do about it.
I certainly hope that you (STURM) and (Chino) are right. Most of the time the Chinese’s people are so very practical and are generally motivated to improve themselves through methods of cooperation of one kind or another. That is until they are not. I say one kind or another of cooperation not because I am disrespectful of them but because some of their forms of cooperation are rather obtuse to my western mind but that does not mean that they don’t work.

What I worry about is that someday in the future when the ruling elites gets themselves into some kind of serious trouble that they play the nationalist card to deflect attention away from that trouble and then things spiral out of control. It is a favorite trick of those who believe they have the right to monopolize political power and not only in China. It only takes a few to start a war but many to finish it.

Would it not be great that all the claimants to the resources of the South China Sea could form some kind of cooperation to develop, exploit, and safeguard the mineral and biological resources found there and give that entity the responsibility to manage fishing, pollution, pirates and so forth, then use the resource and split the profits? China I am sure would get the biggest share and no one has to die.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

AVBsupersonic

New Member
I certainly hope that you (STURM) and (Chino) are right. Most of the time the Chinese’s people are so very practical and are generally motivated to improve themselves through methods of cooperation of one kind or another. That is until they are not. I say one kind or another of cooperation not because I am disrespectful of them but because some of their forms of cooperation are rather obtuse to my western mind but that does not mean that they don’t work.

What I worry about is that someday in the future when the ruling elites gets themselves into some kind of serious trouble that they play the nationalist card to deflect attention away from that trouble and then things spiral out of control. It is a favorite trick of those who believe they have the right to monopolize political power and not only in China. It only takes a few to start a war but many to finish it.

Would it not be great that all the claimants to the resources of the South China Sea could form some kind of cooperation to develop, exploit, and safeguard the mineral and biological resources found there and give that entity the responsibility to manage fishing, pollution, pirates and so forth, then use the resource and split the profits? China I am sure would get the biggest share and no one has to die.


@Sturm,

Re; " there is not a single thing the other 5 claimants can do about it."- REALLY? How did you come up with that conclusion?:rolleyes:

The Map clearly tells the story that "China is very far away from home!" and just trying to hassle it's way in, using it's size!
If really the Spratley Islands are part of China, the biggest mistake they made on their claims were... not claiming "LUZON" or the whole Philippines for that matter!

Actually it's the other way around, I believe the Philippine Govt. will push true with the Oil explorations that are within it's territories and has all the rights to do so, and will never be deterred to any kind of threats, especially if were fighting or defending what is truly ours! "Touch me not" (Noli me tangere) by Jose Rizal.

Even General Douglas MacArthur once said, "Give me a Thousand Filipinos and I will conquer the World!"


@Rip,

" Would it not be great that all the claimants to the resources of the South China Sea could form some kind of cooperation to develop, exploit, and safeguard the mineral and biological resources found there and give that entity the responsibility to manage fishing, pollution, pirates and so forth, then use the resource and split the profits? China I am sure would get the biggest share and no one has to die. "

This can be an ideal option, but just for peaceful resolutions...and that's only IF? and why China to get the biggest chunk???
The Philippines oldest map 1600's Les Isles Philippines Sanson d'Abbeville, 1652,1734 pre-dates the maps showed by CHINA and Vietnam's, clearly showing Spratley Islands, Scarborough Shoal including Reed tablemount, called "Los bajos de Paragua"!

So tell me who has the rights..... In the same way as the way they think that the whole South China Sea is theirs as well??? What kind of logic is that?
 

Sampanviking

Banned Member
The Map clearly tells the story that "China is very far away from home!"
The Spratlys are of course far closer to China than say the Falklands are to the UK.

So presumably if China dump a load of sheep and a few farmers on the rocks, that's them covered?
 

AVBsupersonic

New Member
The Spratlys are of course far closer to China than say the Falklands are to the UK.

So presumably if China dump a load of sheep and a few farmers on the rocks, that's them covered?

Although maybe the Falklands War is where China's basis came from with regards to it's claims, but the Philippines have Old Maps that pre-dates Chinese Maps showing the disputed Islands are originally part of the Philippines.

The Spratley Islands are not classified as a Chinese Dependent territory and nor the Islands are inhabited by Chinese people, but Filipinos!
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
@Sturm,

Re; " there is not a single thing the other 5 claimants can do about it."- REALLY? How did you come up with that conclusion?:rolleyes:

The 5 claimants are Vietnam, Philipines, Brunai, Taiwan, and Malaysia. I believe what Sturm means that stand alones those 5 don't have enough resources to fend off PLAN effectively.

This forum I believe talking about the Military and Defense reality, so please stay away from 'nationalistic' bravado. Strum is Malaysian, and by reading his posts I believe he's also quite nationalistic. But I believe he's also realistic.

The truth on Spartly and Paracel will depends on what China think of her benefit in the future. It's more beneficial for China to maintain good relationship with the other 5 claimants, or it's more important for her to take Spartly for domestic consumptions rather than thinking for regional stability ?
 

AVBsupersonic

New Member
The 5 claimants are Vietnam, Philipines, Brunai, Taiwan, and Malaysia. I believe what Sturm means that stand alones those 5 don't have enough resources to fend off PLAN effectively.

This forum I believe talking about the Military and Defense reality, so please stay away from 'nationalistic' bravado. Strum is Malaysian, and by reading his posts I believe he's also quite nationalistic. But I believe he's also realistic.

The truth on Spartly and Paracel will depends on what China think of her benefit in the future. It's more beneficial for China to maintain good relationship with the other 5 claimants, or it's more important for her to take Spartly for domestic consumptions rather than thinking for regional stability ?

@Ananda,

I think it's more realistic to say "will see what happens" and it's more unrealistic and unfair to say that the 5 Claimant Countries (Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Taiwan, Vietnam) involved don't have enough resources to fend off China....? It's not all about resources but strategies and connections as well, China may have planted it's Money tree investments around the World, but I think they maybe all alone on this one...

Will see what happens... It only takes one Country and a false move for them to find out. :coffee
 

rip

New Member
@Sturm,

Re; " there is not a single thing the other 5 claimants can do about it."- REALLY? How did you come up with that conclusion?:rolleyes:

The Map clearly tells the story that "China is very far away from home!" and just trying to hassle it's way in, using it's size!
If really the Spratley Islands are part of China, the biggest mistake they made on their claims were... not claiming "LUZON" or the whole Philippines for that matter!

Actually it's the other way around, I believe the Philippine Govt. will push true with the Oil explorations that are within it's territories and has all the rights to do so, and will never be deterred to any kind of threats, especially if were fighting or defending what is truly ours! "Touch me not" (Noli me tangere) by Jose Rizal.

Even General Douglas MacArthur once said, "Give me a Thousand Filipinos and I will conquer the World!"


@Rip,

" Would it not be great that all the claimants to the resources of the South China Sea could form some kind of cooperation to develop, exploit, and safeguard the mineral and biological resources found there and give that entity the responsibility to manage fishing, pollution, pirates and so forth, then use the resource and split the profits? China I am sure would get the biggest share and no one has to die. "

This can be an ideal option, but just for peaceful resolutions...and that's only IF? and why China to get the biggest chunk???
The Philippines oldest map 1600's Les Isles Philippines Sanson d'Abbeville, 1652,1734 pre-dates the maps showed by CHINA and Vietnam's, clearly showing Spratley Islands, Scarborough Shoal including Reed tablemount, called "Los bajos de Paragua"!

So tell me who has the rights..... In the same way as the way they think that the whole South China Sea is theirs as well??? What kind of logic is that?
I was talking about the greater claim that China is making, which is that the entire South China Sea is part of their national territory, not just the Spratly's. Under that consideration of the South China Sea they would get the biggest chunk not of national territory but of the profits from the resources coming from those resources. Sorry if I did not make myself clear.

Do you guys really want to discuss all the different claims and counter claims under international law? The geography in this part of the world, especially as it relates to its continental shelf’s, are different than they are in most places in the world so it gets real complicated. Wouldn’t that just makes all of us just very bad lawyers?

I am not a lawyer but if you want to get into the real history that these calms are based upon, it would surprise everyone how little bases any of them have within real history. And though it would be interesting to bring it all up and discuss it, it would not help is solving the potential future problem I hope we all want to avoid.

The assumption that China will only rise and that the countries sounding it will just be helpless to oppose anything it wants to do, cannot be stated as a fact because the future is always uncertain. So let us not assume too much about a future that may surprise us in way we can’t even imagine.

Besides the claim of national sovereignty of such a large area of the words’ oceans and it being a very major trade rout as well, makes the issue very important to many other people that have no territorial claim of their own. China is in fact very afraid that the other countries around it will band together to frustrate their ambitions. They are more afraid of encirclement than any of the other players are afraid of China. I do not think their fears are justified to the extent they believe it to be but I am not Chinese.

Are there any other ideas which might introduce a possible way to resolve this possible problem before everyone gets so committed to a position that they can’t back down because of national pride I would like to hear it.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
@Ananda,

I think it's more realistic to say "will see what happens" and it's more unrealistic and unfair to say that the 5 Claimant Countries (Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Taiwan, Vietnam) involved don't have enough resources to fend off China....?
Yes, at the present moment those 5 Claimant 'alone' don't have enough resources to fend of PLAN in Spartly. That's the reality. However if China decided to move on Spartly at this moment, and it will bring Japan, ROK, even possible Russia, and most importantly USN. That will change the game, and this also reality at present conditions.

My comment only to your remark that seems saying 'alone' Philipines at the moment have enough resources fending off China in Spartly. If China diplomatically, or with other means can make say Japan, ROK, and US to stay away on Spartly issues, then realistically the 5 other claimant have small chance to fend off China (again 'alone') in South China sea. I believe that's what Sturm originally mean on what the other 5 claimants can do if that kind situations arises.

I also say at my previous comment, that if China thinks that regional stability is more important for her need, China will not make strong move on Spartly except occasional show of force like at present situation.

But again like rip says, the future can change the present scenarios.
 

ManilaBoy

Banned Member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #51
I don't think China will make or attempt any wreckless military moves at this time around as there is just too much at stake in this area not just for every claimants, but the entire Asian region which includes Japan, S.Korea, Australia and other surrounding nations... :p:
 
Last edited:

rip

New Member
I don't think China will make or attempt any wreckless military moves at this time around as there is just too much at stake in this area not just for every claimants, but the entire Asian region which includes Japan, S.Korea, Australia and other surrounding nations... :p:
As a practical matter, the other claimants in the area do not have to make there stand right now or if they did not make a stand right now they will lose everything. They can bide their time just like China can bide its time. If there is a crisis, in will come in ten to fifteen years from now.

But all of the elements for this possible crisis are already in place and all it requires is a trigger. So now is the best time to solve these issues while it can be done easily and peacefully.

These different claims might become popular nationalistic issues with great internal political significances to government leaders and not only in China but to the other nation’s populations. It might become so internally politically important to one or more of the nations that have stated a claim and if it does the various governments will lose their current flexibility which they have now in solving these issues than they will have after the possible rise of strong nationalistic feelings. Popular opinion counts even to governments in undemocratic societies.

Every nation exists partly in a state of fact but also partly in myth. This is not completely rational but people are not always rational. There are no exceptions to the process of forming a national identity that I have ever seen including my own country. As the islands of the South China Sea get more strongly incorporated into the myths and imaginations of the nation’s surrounding it and becomes ever a greater parts of their national ideality, rational solution become more difficult to achieve.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
@Sturm,

Re; " there is not a single thing the other 5 claimants can do about it."- REALLY? How did you come up with that conclusion?:rolleyes:

The Map clearly tells the story that "China is very far away from home!" and just trying to hassle it's way in, using it's size!
If really the Spratley Islands are part of China, the biggest mistake they made on their claims were... not claiming "LUZON" or the whole Philippines for that matter!

Actually it's the other way around, I believe the Philippine Govt. will push true with the Oil explorations that are within it's territories and has all the rights to do so, and will never be deterred to any kind of threats, especially if were fighting or defending what is truly ours! "Touch me not" (Noli me tangere) by Jose Rizal.

Even General Douglas MacArthur once said, "Give me a Thousand Filipinos and I will conquer the World!"

Let's keep the patriotic rhetoric and chest thumping at home shall we, this is an international forum.

It's pointless debating the rights and wrongs of the PRC's claims and it's historical background, it is also irrelevent. Let try to stick to the bare facts and what is relavent. The fact is the PRC claims all the Spratleys and has made it clear on multiple occasions that it will only engage in talks with other claiments on a bilateral basis not collectively [this is a smart move on it's part as it can use it greater political and economic clout to effect on some countries]. Besides engaging in further dialogue in the hope that some common ground can be reached, there IS virtually nothing the other claiments can do, apart from complaining to the UN. Short of any claiment making any moves that are seen as extremely provocative, everyone is happy for the status quo to remain.

@Ananda,

I think it's more realistic to say "will see what happens" and it's more unrealistic and unfair to say that the 5 Claimant Countries (Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Taiwan, Vietnam) involved don't have enough resources to fend off China....?
Not only does the PRC have a much bigger military muscle, it also has more political clout on the diplomatic stage - it is on the permanent UN Security Council and soon will be the world's largest economy. It's also not a question of the PRC vs the '5' as the other 5 have no common ground on how to resolve the problem, except through talks, as some countries have overlapping claims and interests.
 
Last edited:

rip

New Member
Let's keep the patriotic rhetoric and chest thumping at home shall we, this is an international forum.

It's pointless debating the rights and wrongs of the PRC's claims and it's historical background, it is also irrelevent. Let try to stick to the bare facts and what is relavent. The fact is the PRC claims all the Spratleys and has made it clear on multiple occasions that it will only engage in talks with other claiments on a bilateral basis not collectively [this is a smart move on it's part as it can use it greater political and economic clout to effect on some countries]. Besides engaging in further dialogue in the hope that some common ground can be reached, there IS virtually nothing the other claiments can do, apart from complaining to the UN. Short of any claiment making any moves that are seen as extremely provocative, everyone is happy for the status quo to remain.



Not only does the PRC have a much bigger military muscle, it also has more political clout on the diplomatic stage - it is on the permanent UN Security Council and soon will be the world's largest economy. It's also not a question of the PRC vs the '5' as the other 5 have no common ground on how to resolve the problem, except through talks, as some countries have overlapping claims and interests.
China potentially also has much more to lose at this stage of the game than what they can gain and they know it. That is why they will not push too hard at this time. I am not saying that they have, or that they ever will make some kind of statement like “we claim it, it’s ours, tuff luck, just live with it and there is nothing you can do about it” but of course in more official diplomatic like language. They can say it if they chose though it would be something far stupider than anything they have ever done in the past so I am not betting that they will. China can’t settle it that way. It wouldn’t settle anything. Just the opposite would be true.

And as I said before, the issues involved here are bigger than just China and the other claimants. It is about taking a large part the international ocean which have always been open to international trade, with long established commercial routs which are probably older than China and turning it into national territory. If they can do this there, then other people can do it elsewhere, setting off a scramble to divide up the sea’s with more resultant conflict than we have seen since WW II. It has to satisfy many other people in the world as well and they can do many things about it economically and militarily.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
China potentially also has much more to lose at this stage of the game than what they can gain and they know it. That is why they will not push too hard at this time.
Like I said, everyone is more than happy to mantain the status quo. Any moves however unlikely, by ASEAN claiments [Vietnam has increasingly been improving it's security relationship with the U..S.] and Taiwan by building major new structures, high profile political visits, conducting military exercises in the area, etc, will also be strongly discouraged by the U.S., who has no wish to see things heating up in the area.

P.S. The Chinese Premier arrived in Malaysia yesterday for a visit. Amongst the subjects that will be discussed is the Spratley's.
 

rip

New Member
Apologies - double post.
On the political front, if there could be some kind of agreement where everybody gets at least something and nobody gets everything, this problem could be solved. But for the very same reason that there is no crisis today and we are looking at a possible crisis that might accrue a decaled or more into the future is simply that everybody has far more pressing interests to deal with right now to take their attention.

What I am afraid of is by the time this issue comes to the top of everybody’s list of priorities, peoples’ positions will have become so calcified that a peaceful solution will not be possible.

I am reminded of an example in history. I think that Jimmy Carter was the worst USA president in the 20th century but he did do one thing right. The Panama Canal is a word utility and strategic asset. But in a way it was also a relic of an imperialistic age. He negotiated a deal which preserved this world utility, addressed US security needs, and restored Panama’s rightful sovereignty over their own territory. He was abled to this so successfully even though he was a lousy negotiator and worse leader because the inherent contradictions of the situation in Panama had yet to begin to reach the crises stage. How many times in history has this happened? Not many.
 

Chino

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
China has already physically set foot on the Spratlys. They have taken a calculated risk that the other claimants (or their sponsors like the US) will not challenge them militarily... and they are proven right so far.

They will next make use of carrot and stick - i.e. display of military might and economic bribery - to maintain the current status quo on the Spratlys where they already have the upper hand. Until they can determine if there is oil or gas.

On the diplomatic front, they will try to buy off the other claimants with other lucrative incentives like investment or trade deals.

These other claimants then have to choose between - say, investment/business deals in the multi-millions from China they can enjoy NOW - versus risking a war with China and then MAYBE finding oil or gas in the Spratlys later.

...

Anyone who thinks the claimants will band together against China if the shooting starts may have a rude awakening. China will bully/buy them off one-by-one.

Japan and Korea - besides being non-claimants - already have HUGE irreplaceable trade with China NOW worth more than any currently not yet discovered natural resources.

Malaysia is a peaceful nation with a tiny military and already has some natural resources to live comfortably for the forseeable future.

Vietnam is only just now enjoying a newly developing economy, where relationship with China will decide how far it goes.

Tiny Brunei? Already has more oil than they are capable of protecting.

Taiwan? Millions of Taiwanese, or a huge proportion of Taiwan's white-collar working population, are now in China.

The US? They are already there in the ME fighting for oil, and China is not contesting them there. So there's a chance they would not contest China regarding the Spratlys as a trade-off.

(All above are my personal speculation.)
 

rip

New Member
China has already physically set foot on the Spratlys. They have taken a calculated risk that the other claimants (or their sponsors like the US) will not challenge them militarily... and they are proven right so far.

They will next make use of carrot and stick - i.e. display of military might and economic bribery - to maintain the current status quo on the Spratlys where they already have the upper hand. Until they can determine if there is oil or gas.

On the diplomatic front, they will try to buy off the other claimants with other lucrative incentives like investment or trade deals.

These other claimants then have to choose between - say, investment/business deals in the multi-millions from China they can enjoy NOW - versus risking a war with China and then MAYBE finding oil or gas in the Spratlys later.

...

Anyone who thinks the claimants will band together against China if the shooting starts may have a rude awakening. China will bully/buy them off one-by-one.

Japan and Korea - besides being non-claimants - already have HUGE irreplaceable trade with China NOW worth more than any currently not yet discovered natural resources.

Malaysia is a peaceful nation with a tiny military and already has some natural resources to live comfortably for the forseeable future.

Vietnam is only just now enjoying a newly developing economy, where relationship with China will decide how far it goes.

Tiny Brunei? Already has more oil than they are capable of protecting.

Taiwan? Millions of Taiwanese, or a huge proportion of Taiwan's white-collar working population, are now in China.

The US? They are already there in the ME fighting for oil, and China is not contesting them there. So there's a chance they would not contest China regarding the Spratlys as a trade-off.

(All above are my personal speculation.)
Trade deals come and go. Many times they are announced with great fanfare but come to nothing so anyone that will sell its national sovereignty for empty promises is a fool but land and borders are not so ephemeral. You are right China is upping their game but they have not yet reached a threshold where it cannot be endured. We are still waiting for the trigger. People who think about borders and how to defend them think long term.

As for the oil, if there is any, it is to the USA’s advantage that it be successfully exploited regardless of who owns it. More supply on the world stage lowers the world price no matter whose gas tank it eventually goes into.
 

HKP

New Member
China has already physically set foot on the Spratlys. They have taken a calculated risk that the other claimants (or their sponsors like the US) will not challenge them militarily... and they are proven right so far.

They will next make use of carrot and stick - i.e. display of military might and economic bribery - to maintain the current status quo on the Spratlys where they already have the upper hand. Until they can determine if there is oil or gas.

On the diplomatic front, they will try to buy off the other claimants with other lucrative incentives like investment or trade deals.

These other claimants then have to choose between - say, investment/business deals in the multi-millions from China they can enjoy NOW - versus risking a war with China and then MAYBE finding oil or gas in the Spratlys later.

...

Anyone who thinks the claimants will band together against China if the shooting starts may have a rude awakening. China will bully/buy them off one-by-one.

Japan and Korea - besides being non-claimants - already have HUGE irreplaceable trade with China NOW worth more than any currently not yet discovered natural resources.

Malaysia is a peaceful nation with a tiny military and already has some natural resources to live comfortably for the forseeable future.

Vietnam is only just now enjoying a newly developing economy, where relationship with China will decide how far it goes.

Tiny Brunei? Already has more oil than they are capable of protecting.

Taiwan? Millions of Taiwanese, or a huge proportion of Taiwan's white-collar working population, are now in China.

The US? They are already there in the ME fighting for oil, and China is not contesting them there. So there's a chance they would not contest China regarding the Spratlys as a trade-off.

(All above are my personal speculation.)
very true and good analysis. I agree, so now strategies maybe based on these gesture of China to counter like the China Card?
 

Chino

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
SO! What are you trying to IMPLY then, unless you have links to confirm all these statements then your personal speculation is 100% WRONG then... :sleepy2
Yet another utterly useless post.

Unlike you, I don't feel a forum is for people to brainlessly post links or shoot off one-liners like you have been doing.

And when you do post something other than links, you have nothing more useful to say apart from dribble.

The quality of your posts belong in some other forums - I can suggest a few - definitely not here.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top