South China Sea thoughts?

[gf0012-aust]

well, this will ramp up things just a tad

China Threatens to Deny Passage Rights through Peripheral Seas | World Affairs Journal

(I thought teenage youtube posters were whackos... but it seems that WAJ has its own cohort of specials!)

 

[weaponwh]

well, this will ramp up things just a tad

China Threatens to Deny Passage Rights through Peripheral Seas | World Affairs Journal

(I thought teenage youtube posters were whackos... but it seems that WAJ has its own cohort of specials!)

.... until I read the author name. The author predicted fall of China for 20+ years now.

 

[gf0012-aust]

.... until I read the author name. The author predicted fall of China for 20+ years now.

peoples analysis changes - and the very thing that author is articulating is the very thing that is driving why other countries (such as indonesia) are escalating conversations about international FON

 

[gf0012-aust]

peoples analysis changes - and the very thing that author is articulating is the very thing that is driving why other countries (such as indonesia) are escalating conversations about international FON

I'd add that in 1998 I worked for an institution where we were predicting the fall of the then chinese political construct within 25 years - and that was based on reams of socio political evidence that was conservative in estimates

the rapid shift to notional capitalism threw all those numbers out in short order. so I wouldn't be too harsh on the author because governments were also making the same assessments in private

 

[weaponwh]

Except Gordon Chang is one of most bias critic in sino affairs. I prefer more neutral authors

 

[ngatimozart]

Except Gordon Chang is one of most bias critic in sino affairs. I prefer more neutral authors

You are still a relative newbie here so no more one line posts please

 

[gf0012-aust]

Except Gordon Chang is one of most bias critic in sino affairs. I prefer more neutral authors

thats irrelevant, despite his particular focus he also trots out some very relevant observations. even watched clocks are correct twice in 24 hrs

analysis is about being forensic and determining whether the arguments and statements stand up to review

there are things where Chang obviously is on a mission, there are others where he is absolutely on the mark

 

[gf0012-aust]

softpower at work.....

Japanese firm to build ship recycling plant in Philippines - Recycling Today Global Edition

 

[gf0012-aust]

CIMSEC op-ed

The Asia Pacific and Europe’s Maritime Security Strategy

 

[Boatteacher]

CIMSEC op-ed

The Asia Pacific and Europe’s Maritime Security Strategy

That was an interesting article; although maybe somewhat optimistic in terms of what it was suggesting might occur.

Diplomatic engagement from afar by Europe on this issue will likely achieve all of nothing. China seems to be immune to any overtures not backed by some immediate benefit to them (I'm thinking the Philippines here) or unspoken (or explicit) threat of force to counter the mobbing tactics used by the Chinese maritime forces to squeeze out competitors.

In any case Europe seems to apply a very narrowly focused, devoid of principles, personal cost benefit approach to engaging on this issue. And for most of them, not upsetting China beats everything.

 

[John Fedup]

I just read an article in The Atlantic, Dec 2016 issue, by journalist James Fallows about China's decent into repression during the last 10 years. From Nixon to early Obama, the idea that China getting richer would transition China to a more Liberal and hopefully democratic place. He postulates the 2008 financial crisis made it possible for the hardliners to gain influence. As I am not a keen China observer I would be interested to hear the views on this article from people who are.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/12/chinas-great-leap-backward/505817/

 

[John Fedup]

Another "Atlantic" piece on China.

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/03/donald-trump-china-rachman/521055/

 

[weaponwh]

China still far from full democratic, but as far as personal freedom, human rights etc is much better compared to 80s. As ppl grow richer and influence by western culture they will demand more, environment is such example. The top has to satisfy the majority in order to keep their powers, so in a sense they are working for the people for their own party benefit .

Recent populism rise does give CCP more excuses/believes that democracy won't work in China. Some Chinese scholars believe democracy is suited for a higher overall educated population, so the poorly educated won't drag down every one else in the country

 

[John Fedup]

The Fallows article is pointing out that there been a change from the period of the 1990s to about 2007, where easing of repression was the norm. Starting in 2008 to the present he describes the negative trending, despite China's strong economic performance. I realize there are some great concerns about the Chinese financial system and the general level of corruption that perhaps haven't been factored in to this economic performance gain. In any event we are in for interesting times.

 

[Toblerone]

Personal freedoms have improved but the bulk of the population are uneducated, xenophobic/racist and nationalistic in an arrogant manner. Easily manipulated by populism, too. The giant dragon is dangerous.

 

[ngatimozart]

China still far from full democratic, but as far as personal freedom, human rights etc is much better compared to 80s. As ppl grow richer and influence by western culture they will demand more, environment is such example. The top has to satisfy the majority in order to keep their powers, so in a sense they are working for the people for their own party benefit .

Recent populism rise does give CCP more excuses/believes that democracy won't work in China. Some Chinese scholars believe democracy is suited for a higher overall educated population, so the poorly educated won't drag down every one else in the country

Thing is, in its whole history China has never had democracy so democracy, per se, is a foreign concept to the Chinese. Maybe one that they aren't even interested in.

Personal freedoms have improved but the bulk of the population are uneducated, xenophobic/racist and nationalistic in an arrogant manner. Easily manipulated by populism, too. The giant dragon is dangerous.

That is not a purely Chinese trait. I could say the same about other nations and their populations as well.

 

[protoplasm]

Thing is, in its whole history China has never had democracy so democracy, per se, is a foreign concept to the Chinese. Maybe one that they aren't even interested in.

Originally Posted by Toblerone
Personal freedoms have improved but the bulk of the population are uneducated, xenophobic/racist and nationalistic in an arrogant manner. Easily manipulated by populism, too. The giant dragon is dangerous.

Originally Posted by ngatimozart
That is not a purely Chinese trait. I could say the same about other nations and their populations as well.

And that is the rub, we are seeing in a number of countries the decision makers bow to populism and moving in directions that appeal to the least educated, most racist / xenophobic sections of society. There are enough people within these sections that they influence national perspective. I am concerned by the number of very powerful nations that appear to be moving in a more nationalistic direction, without sophisticated thought about how the relationships between nations are affected. The potential for conflict situations to develop and then to get out of control is growing.

 

[ASSAIL]

And that is the rub, we are seeing in a number of countries the decision makers bow to populism and moving in directions that appeal to the least educated, most racist / xenophobic sections of society. There are enough people within these sections that they influence national perspective. I am concerned by the number of very powerful nations that appear to be moving in a more nationalistic direction, without sophisticated thought about how the relationships between nations are affected. The potential for conflict situations to develop and then to get out of control is growing.

This is not a new phenomen and has occurred both in democracies and other forms of government. In almost all democratic systems the inbuilt checks and balances temper that extreme populism as witnessed recently in Holland and the US. I suspect the same will occur in France.

Here in Australia populists such as Hansen, Xenophon and co will always have a voice and will have influence when numbers are tight between the majors but this is democratic and we simply deal with it.
It's when those so called beltway voices chime in to suggest that such populists have no right to be elected or to express their opinions that we see the true colours of those who believe they have the right to govern at the expense of your so called "uneducated, racist and xenophobic" underclass. This is what breeds populism in the first instance.

Please excuse the OT

 

[weaponwh]

Chinese are very nationalist. imagine if they are democracy, the leader they select might be more hardline then current ones. For China to be democratic country their overall education levels should be on par as Japan. Most Chinese these days are chasing Chinese dreams and materials things. They have little interest in democracy

 

[John Fedup]

Most Chinese these days are chasing Chinese dreams and materials things. They have little interest in democracy

This is not unique to China. The same can be said for a number Western countries. This lack of interest is why elected officials can F.U. as much as they do. People just aren't paying attention, an excellent way to loose your freedom.