South China Sea thoughts?

[Sandhi Yudha]

Will be interesting to see how the new American President handles activities like this.


A U.S. Navy unmanned buoyancy glider was taken by Chinese forces in international waters earlier this week, two defense officials confirmed to USNI News on Friday.

The glider was operating with U.S. Military Sealift Command ship USNS Bowditch (T-AGS-62) about 50 miles off of Subic Bay in the Philippines when a People’s Liberation Army Navy ship took the glider both defense officals said.

“A Chinese naval ship that had been shadowing the Bowditch put a small boat into the water. That small boat came up alongside and the Chinese crew took one of the drones,” CNN reported on Friday

lbs_glider

“The Chinese navy ship ASR-510, a Dalang III-class ship, approached within 500 yards of the Bowditch, launched a small boat, and seized the UUV,” the Pentagon said in a statement reported the BBC


https://news.usni.org/2016/12/16/breaking-chinese-seize-u-s-navy-unmanned-vehicle

So is it a glider (UAV), a floating device (buoyancy) or Unmanned Underwater Vehicle? Anyway its indeed a new development, China confiscating USN equipment just 100 nm from the coast of the Philippines. I'm sure they go to reverse engineer it...

 

[foxdemon]

What is the chance of the PCR/Russian manoeuvring triggering Islamic insurrection in the ASEAN region?

Duterte has asked US advisors to leave and he seems to want Russia to replace them. Both will take a more violent approach. Given Islamic State is increasing its activities in SE Asia, the approach of Duterte might back fire by killing many civilians and thus justify IS to local Muslims.

Uighur militants have started showing up, since IS has been recruiting them too. China and Indonesia have cooperated to catch some of them. The PCR has harsh policies in their western province which is fuelling militancy. Yet the Uighur have already been in contact with local discontents. Now the anti-Islam views of the PCR have become intwined in SE Asia as a result of this contact.

Political Islam continues to be a growing force in Indonesia. Joko's lean toward the PRC, in search of investment, might open old wounds. We've seen the recent protests again Jakarta's ethnic Chinese mayor. But the last time the PCR meddled in Indonesia during Sokarno's era, the final result was a massacre of the communists. The Darel Islam insurenction was still on going i those days, but I guess no one remembers that.

In Malaysia, Najib Razak has been caught out for corruption, is refusing to resign and thus bringing the state into disrepute. His turn to the PCR implicates them in the public eye. Again, the response is increasingly authoritarian governance which is only going to lose state legitimacy and thus increase the appeal of extremism to the discontent.


So IS is around in SE Asia, the PRC and Russian are happy to support corrupt governments, no questions asked, those governments seem to be prepared to use repression in response to questions of their legitimacy. Well, I am getting a bad feeling about the strategic situation in SE Asia. I think that the PRC in particular, but also Russia, are destabilising regional states as a result of their great game ambitions in the region. The result may be to united popular resistance with IS and trigger a serious regionwide insurrection.

Am I being too pessimistic?

 

[STURM]

Duterte has asked US advisors to leave and he seems to want Russia to replace them.

Russia is in no position [even if it wanted to] to take the place of the U.S. in the Philippines. Also, Durterte has a tendency to say something and later do the complete opposite. If Durterte was really serious in adopting an ''independent'' policy and severing military ties with the U.S. he should first renounce the Mutual Defence Treaty [which the Philippines has long benefited from] and also decline any further offers of U.S. assistance. in the form of surplus equipment and cross training [which the Philippines has also long benefited from].

What is the chance of the PCR/Russian manoeuvring triggering Islamic insurrection in the ASEAN region?

Zero. The spread of IS and other such ideologies and groups are driven by other factors.

His turn to the PCR implicates them in the public eye.

Long before the scandal you mentioned; Malaysia has had close economic/trade ties with China; it's nothing new, is not driven by the scandal and doesn't implicate anything as the Malaysian public understands that healthy trade ties with China is beneficial to Malaysia.

I think that the PRC in particular, but also Russia, are destabilising regional states as a result of their great game ambitions in the region. The result may be to united popular resistance with IS and trigger a serious regionwide insurrection.

All outside powers, not just Russia and China conduct external dealings that may not in the long term be beneficial to countries in the region. Nothing that Russia and China does will be destabilising [as far as bilateral ties go] to any regional countries. With Russia, the fact remains that South East Asia is not a priority for Putin. The Russians will welcome the opportunity to sell arms to the region and improve ties with individual countries but when compared to the U.S. and China; Russia is a minor regional player and this will not change anytime soon.

It will be internal factors, namely economic and social issues unique to individual countries that have the potential to cause problems; not bilateral ties with any external power. If anything, it is the policies of players like Britain, France and the U.S. [in more recent times] that have played a huge part in destabilising countries; namely in the Middle East.

 

[Ananda]

Political Islam continues to be a growing force in Indonesia. Joko's lean toward the PRC, in search of investment, might open old wounds. We've seen the recent protests again Jakarta's ethnic Chinese mayor. But the last time the PCR meddled in Indonesia during Sokarno's era, the final result was a massacre of the communists. The Darel Islam insurenction was still on going i those days, but I guess no one remembers that.

Darul Islam insurection in Indonesia..??
Where are you getting this..this is outregous..Darul Islam already dead long time ago..Soeharto make sure of that..if some people using social media and claiming Darul Islam agenda..well there are many people in Social Media shown Confederate Flags in the South...by that CSA is on the rise to replace USA in dixie land again...see how redicoulous to make assumption on social media alone ??

Despite the biggest Muslim populated country..Political Islam never dominance in Indonesia..Political Islam on the rise ? Based on what..based on latest pooling and latest election result they are loosing ground to nationalist parties..

I know many press in west shown latest Muslim gathering in early December as part of 'anti' Ahok (Chinese decends Incumbent Jakarta Governor and close allies to Jokowi the present President), is the sign of Hard Line Islamic movement on the rise..

The truth is..of close 2 million Muslim that gather in Jakarta street in early December are mostly coming frm Moderate factions..the hard line groups like FPI will be hard pressed to gather thousand or ten of thousands followers at best..and only the moderates can gather hundred of thousands or even millions followers like we see in early December.
The moderates finaly come down to the street due to what they see the 'careless' using of Qur'an reference by Ahok (as non Muslim) for political benefit..

Off course the Ahokers and Jokowow (term for Ahok and Jokowi supporters) spinned the early Decembers Muslim gathering as anti Non-Muslim political agenda..
However that part of democratic tit for tat move that in essence not much different that what Trump Republicans used against Hilarry Democrats..and vice versa..(like in Imigration and anti-muslim card)..

Russia and PRC have minor influences..in most SEA nation..and don't see that change except in Myanmar and Cambodia for some time..
Yes..Jokowi courting PRC for Investment..but so he's courting a lot off country for Investment..the Chinese Investment in Indonesia is minuscule compared to Japanese ones..
And don't bring PRC factor on Ahok political row at this moment..the overwhelming majority of Indonesian Chinese did not have any legiances to PRC..most of them are quite nationalist..in fact many of them see Taiwan as more reliable business partner then PRC..

Btw Taiwan overall investment in Indonesia is still bigger that PRC..see how redicolous some western media saying that PRC has more cloud in Indonesia compared to other East Asian trading partners like ROC, ROK and Japan..??
Those three individually have more business cloud than China..China cloud mostly in Global relatios and export market with Indonesia and not much in Investment yet..
Still Indonesia is relatively less dependent toward Chinese market compared other SEA..thus it's also reduced China cloud over Indonesia..

 

[gf0012-aust]

Russia is in no position [even if it wanted to] to take the place of the U.S. in the Philippines. Also, Durterte has a tendency to say something and later do the complete opposite. If Durterte was really serious in adopting an ''independent'' policy and severing military ties with the U.S. he should first renounce the Mutual Defence Treaty [which the Philippines has long benefited from] and also decline any further offers of U.S. assistance. in the form of surplus equipment and cross training [which the Philippines has also long benefited from].

there's also the small fact that everytime the USN and USMC visit they invariably have Seabees building schools and repairing towns because the local govt can't afford to do it

no shortage of pictures of USN Seabees building and repairing everytime they do a port visit.

good luck getting the russians to do that, and going on the african experience where chinese built infrstructure as part of local deals has started to fall apart within 5 years.

if he becomes a fairweather friend then its the local populations who will pay the price for his own tantrums and bias.

and not to put too fine a point on it, there are a number of other countries who have been providing SF to assist in dealing with the separatists in the northern islands - good luck with getting that continued support when his own forces don't have the resources to continue by themselves

 

[gf0012-aust]

Russia and PRC have minor influences..in most SEA nation..and don't see that change except in Myanmar and Cambodia for some time..

I wouldn't be so sure of Myanmar - and I can say this due to some personal contacts with snr players in the Military and the Govt

Russia is using the opportunity and China is quite vigorous in trying to use soft power, but I am pretty confident from what I know that they (Myanmar) will not be like Cambodia and the Philipines.

 

[Ananda]

Russia is using the opportunity and China is quite vigorous in trying to use soft power, but I am pretty confident from what I know that they (Myanmar) will not be like Cambodia and the Philipines.

China if really want to continues being seen as user of 'soft' power seems find hard to 'reined' some 'nationalist' faction whether in media..internet..or even in business circle that seems trying to used more 'forcefull' action for PRC benefit.

The conflicting faces that China bring some times made counterproductive approach to the neighbours which sees China suspiciously.

 

[gf0012-aust]

China if really want to continues being seen as user of 'soft' power seems find hard to 'reined' some 'nationalist' faction whether in media..internet..or even in business circle that seems trying to used more 'forcefull' action for PRC benefit.

The conflicting faces that China bring some times made counterproductive approach to the neighbours which sees China suspiciously.

agree, chinas ability to turn from friend to anger is quite short - and much shorter with the silent army of bloggers and internet players.

it demonstrates a lack of sophistication for a nuanced conversation

you can become a target very quickly with her internet army - it reflects on a lack of reliability and maturity in policy expression

 

[Boatteacher]

There have been a couple of developments in this area I thought people might have commented on with the new Administration.

First of all, of course, was Trump's "no more islands and no access to the current ones" pronouncement.

Then today, Mattis's more nuanced approach.

For all the difficulties in the new Administration, their new approach - in terms of game theory - might be more effective than that of the last. At the very least China will be asking just how far they might go, a question that never arose under the old administration.

Of course, that means uncertainty all around; dangerous times too. And yet the SCS was never going to be resolved any other way.

 

[cdxbow]

There have been a couple of developments in this area I thought people might have commented on with the new Administration.

First of all, of course, was Trump's "no more islands and no access to the current ones" pronouncement.

Then today, Mattis's more nuanced approach.

For all the difficulties in the new Administration, their new approach - in terms of game theory - might be more effective than that of the last. At the very least China will be asking just how far they might go, a question that never arose under the old administration.

Of course, that means uncertainty all around; dangerous times too. And yet the SCS was never going to be resolved any other way.

The diplomat has an interesting article suggesting it's a stalemate and likely to stay that way. See Perpetual Stalemate: China Can Neither Be Dislodged From the South China Sea Nor Control It | The Diplomat

I thought the perspective from the Singaporean Ambassador-at-large Bilahari Kausikan was interesting:

...China’s moves in the South China Sea were primarily a demonstration to the Chinese people that the Communist Party was fulfilling its promise to restore lost territory and honor in a way that was both low-risk and low-cost compared to Taiwan and parcels that are now part of Siberia and Mongolia; “The very insignificance of the territories in dispute in the South China Sea may well be part of their attraction to Beijing for this essentially domestic political purpose.”

 

[Boatteacher]

The diplomat has an interesting article suggesting it's a stalemate and likely to stay that way. See Perpetual Stalemate: China Can Neither Be Dislodged From the South China Sea Nor Control It | The Diplomat

I thought the perspective from the Singaporean Ambassador-at-large Bilahari Kausikan was interesting:

...China’s moves in the South China Sea were primarily a demonstration to the Chinese people that the Communist Party was fulfilling its promise to restore lost territory and honor in a way that was both low-risk and low-cost compared to Taiwan and parcels that are now part of Siberia and Mongolia; “The very insignificance of the territories in dispute in the South China Sea may well be part of their attraction to Beijing for this essentially domestic political purpose.”

To an extent a stalemate is fine. But it need to be frozen now, not after they build ten more islands; which is where I saw the game theory playing out.

Still this thing about the SCS being Sovereign territory is a domestic rod for their own back of their own making. It didn't loom large until they started making an issue of it. I never really understood why they wanted to do that unless they really did intend to carry through and persuade the world to surrender it to them to achieve their strategic objectives. Naive yes, but China showed a good deal of naivety when it first opened up to the world. The question now is how to defuse that expectation.

 

[cdxbow]

To an extent a stalemate is fine. But it need to be frozen now, not after they build ten more islands; which is where I saw the game theory playing out.

Still this thing about the SCS being Sovereign territory is a domestic rod for their own back of their own making. It didn't loom large until they started making an issue of it. I never really understood why they wanted to do that unless they really did intend to carry through and persuade the world to surrender it to them to achieve their strategic objectives. Naive yes, but China showed a good deal of naivety when it first opened up to the world. The question now is how to defuse that expectation.

True, it is a rod of their own making, but if it satisfies domestic pressures for territorial advancement and security rather than the more messy & difficult issue of Taiwan then perhaps it's not a bad outcome. Life is imperfect.

 

[Think_Tank]

Private

I thought the perspective from the Singaporean Ambassador-at-large Bilahari Kausikan was interesting:

...China’s moves in the South China Sea were primarily a demonstration to the Chinese people that the Communist Party was fulfilling its promise to restore lost territory and honor in a way that was both low-risk and low-cost compared to Taiwan and parcels that are now part of Siberia and Mongolia; “The very insignificance of the territories in dispute in the South China Sea may well be part of their attraction to Beijing for this essentially domestic political purpose.”

Since US military withdrawal from Philippines China never made a claim on Philippine island currently occupied. Chinese took over of the island after joint energy exploration initiated by Philippines ex-president Arroyo with Vietnam and China closed to Philippine commercial grade oil rig. Discovery of vast energy resouces has prompted China taking pre-emptive action occupying the Philippine sland in pretext of recovering historical lost territory. The island took over by China used to be the target practice of US fighters from Clark Airbase and Subic Naval base.

 

[STURM]

The big difference compared to previously when it was mostly Tibet, Xinjiang and Taiwan that China was mostly concerned about or made the most noise about; is that China is now in a much better position - militarily, economically and diplomatically - to be more ''assertive'' with regards to the Spratlys. The Chinese leadership has long been aware that the Spratys might contain huge oil and gas reserves; it's just that they're now in a better position and feel more confident to safeguard their claims and deter others. Similarly, although many Chinese citizens were aware of issues surrounding Tibet, Xinjiang and Taiwan; very few until recently knew much about the Spratlys; this has changed of course.

 

[Boatteacher]

The big difference compared to previously when it was mostly Tibet, Xinjiang and Taiwan that China was mostly concerned about or made the most noise about; is that China is now in a much better position - militarily, economically and diplomatically - to be more ''assertive'' with regards to the Spratlys. The Chinese leadership has long been aware that the Spratys might contain huge oil and gas reserves; it's just that they're now in a better position and feel more confidant to safeguard their claims and deter others. .

Still, there's a big difference between claiming it's part of the EEZ and claiming it is a Sovereign possession. It is the latter aspect that has drawn the ire of the whole world

 

[STURM]

I agree. I was merely pointing why unlike in the past; Chinese is devoting much more attention to the issue.

 

[swerve]

Still, there's a big difference between claiming it's part of the EEZ and claiming it is a Sovereign possession. It is the latter aspect that has drawn the ire of the whole world

Exactly. China is claiming the EEZs & even territorial waters of other countries, far from the Chinese coast, as Chinese sovereign waters. This is unprecedented (nobody else has ever made such a claim over seas) & has no legal basis.

 

[ngatimozart]

Reality is America having a stealth jet that can't be detected!!

Reality is half of American jets work. That's not bad when you have 2,000 jets.

Reality is China warships will all be sunk and there is nothing they can do about it. 'Well they would have to fly jet fighters around 24/7' there aircraft carries. That's so they get him in eye range because radar ant going to work. See him call it up intercept him. Like dark ages in modern times.

The reality is if them jet's are really radar proof. There jets would calculate to being unlock on ball. That means the enemy can't lock weapons on. I may call it bluff. First look at it's defences. Because that calls bluff. Can there F-22 protect for a bigger lock on radius? If yes it means after an area, a small area will see them locked onto. That means they only have an advantage 2* the distance away. Clearly we need to take into account that Russia has jamming gear that shuts U.S warships down.

To protect aircrafts and warships they would be near each other and would fly jet's around everywhere "looking" for the enemy.

Reality is if these jet's are so advanced, then China will lose fast at that. It should look like America invading Iraq. The invasion went good, but the battle that happened after they got in there....By god, it was bloody.

You are making a few claims here. How about backing them up with some sources please. We appreciate good discussion but sources are a requirement.

 

[gf0012-aust]

You are making a few claims here. How about backing them up with some sources please. We appreciate good discussion but sources are a requirement.

No need. Permanent ban in place. Behaviour across a number of threads and his profile shows someone who's not serious, trolling or underage and talking rubbish

 

[Ranger25]

No need. Permanent ban in place. Behaviour across a number of threads and his profile shows someone who's not serious, trolling or underage and talking rubbish

Thank You Gents, great forum, appreciate the tight ship


Thank You