Scottish Independence

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Looking on some of forums talking about the issue, seems the scotish 'yes' followers still believe their 6 million nation economy can cope with financial/banking sector and Industrial sector withdrawals to the south and relying on Oil and Fishing industry. One of on line comment that I see stated: "If Norway can do it, why can't us".

Not a realistic point of view, but seems a strong close to fanatical point of view nonetheless.

Anyway, personally I'm kind intrigued with what is 'new' union jack will be after scotland withdrawals if 'yes' vote wins.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
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Not sure about the rest of the world but here in Canada, the volume of junk phone calls (including pollsters) is massive. Recent election outcomes have proven poll results to be very inaccurate. This could be due to poor polling techniques or people jerking the pollsters around due to frustration with all the phone abuse from telemarketing. I am beginning to suspect the latter.
Same here in the land of the Kiwis. The only poll that really counts is the one on election day and that is only after the special votes are counted and any recounts are done if requested. Here voting is not compulsory - registration is so turnout can have have an impact, as can the undecided voters. So whilst polls prior may give an indication they certainly are not highly accurate.
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
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Secession movements like this are happening across Southern Europe also. I find it very interesting how they are all occurring around the same time.

'Independencia!': Protesters demand Catalonia vote

Europe's Latest Secession Movement: Venice? - The Atlantic

Scottish independence: Why Catalonia and Venice will be watching | Metro News
Spain will be watching with nervous interest. They have the reverse of the UK in the fact that if Catalonians manage to secede then they would turn spain into a bigger version of Portugal
 
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hauritz

Well-Known Member
I can't see Scotland breaking away. Economically Scotland has a lot more to lose than the rest of the UK. All the "vote yes" bravado will evaporate when people are queuing up to vote and suddenly realise how uncertain their future will be.

That the yes vote isn't even ahead now would suggest that this will be trounced at the polls.
 

ngatimozart

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Staff member
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I can't see Scotland breaking away. Economically Scotland has a lot more to lose than the rest of the UK. All the "vote yes" bravado will evaporate when people are queuing up to vote and suddenly realise how uncertain their future will be.

That the yes vote isn't even ahead now would suggest that this will be trounced at the polls.
Ah yes but sometimes the great hairy unwashed vote emotionally and not logically. Methinks this might be a too close to call and whilst as outsiders we can see the logic of a no vote ......
 

alrik

New Member
In the case of Catalonia there are different variables that doesn't appears on the news. I've got family and friends there that say they're not feeling the independence movement. So they're not going to surrender their home for something they don't believe... And we're not going to let them alone.
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
Ah yes but sometimes the great hairy unwashed vote emotionally and not logically. Methinks this might be a too close to call and whilst as outsiders we can see the logic of a no vote ......
One of the other potential issues is that it seems members of the independence movement have been spinning tales of what is possible, alongside asssertions of how easy things will be, whilst dismissing outside commentary (and statements) of issues. NATO and EU membership come immediately to mind. A concern I have is that SNP members and others will believe the independence leadership and not the outside organizations with regards to the viability of Scotish membership.

Frankly though, if people wish to believe Salmond instead of NATO over what is required for Scotland to join NATO, then the people deserve what they get. I just wish there not so many people wearing "rose-tinted" glasses.
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
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In the case of Catalonia there are different variables that doesn't appears on the news. I've got family and friends there that say they're not feeling the independence movement. So they're not going to surrender their home for something they don't believe... And we're not going to let them alone.
When I worked in Spain there was certainly some issue of the Catalonians thinking that they wanted more autonomy and a strong belief that they were carrying the rest of spain financially and intellectually... (similar to the attitude of some western australians to the rest of the country :))

But, when I was in Spain the Catalonians were not making much noise about secession (seemed to be more about revenue equity etc..._ OTOH the Basque were busy. They happened to blow up the front of the hotel I stayed in a couple of days after I left.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
I think that this may effect the election:

Scottish banks deliver blow to independence with threat to head south | Al Jazeera America

If true, could be a disaster for Scotland.
Oh, it's true. One of the results of the success of the Scottish financial industry is that the biggest firms do much more business in the rest of the UK than in Scotland, because they've outgrown the Scottish market, & think that it would make sense to move to where their business is if Scotland split off. And one of them is mostly owned by the UK government, as a result of the 2008 crash.

What Salmond & the Yes campaign don't understand is that the Scottish financial industry is now like Scottish shipbuilding: a UK industry that happens to be based in Scotland, not a Scottish industry.

I would expect Selex to move its Scottish radar business south as fast as it could, as well, to keep its preferential access to the UK military market.
 
Oh, it's true. One of the results of the success of the Scottish financial industry is that the biggest firms do much more business in the rest of the UK than in Scotland, because they've outgrown the Scottish market, & think that it would make sense to move to where their business is if Scotland split off. And one of them is mostly owned by the UK government, as a result of the 2008 crash.
The statement isn't entirely true. They haven't outgrown the market at all.

RBS for example through acquisitions over the last 20years has become an English/British centric investment bank with a HQ (Gogarburn) in Edin. Halifax/BOS/ Llyods are effectively the same, with the consolidations and mergers over the GFC implications. Apart from the asset mgrs the staff are predominately in the rUk.

The investment banks and some asset mgrs (post investment bank transitions) are moving because funding operations and ALL trading is conducted in City of London and the potential risks (i.e. currency, regulatory, ratings specific and political) are too high w.r.t the 'Yes' campaign uncertainties and the future mkts.

The actual moves themselves will be relatively seamless internally... If they happen - I still think 'No' gets it 60-40 (ish)

I know this, as this is my industry.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Oh, it's true. One of the results of the success of the Scottish financial industry is that the biggest firms do much more business in the rest of the UK than in Scotland, because they've outgrown the Scottish market, & think that it would make sense to move to where their business is if Scotland split off. And one of them is mostly owned by the UK government, as a result of the 2008 crash.

What Salmond & the Yes campaign don't understand is that the Scottish financial industry is now like Scottish shipbuilding: a UK industry that happens to be based in Scotland, not a Scottish industry.

I would expect Selex to move its Scottish radar business south as fast as it could, as well, to keep its preferential access to the UK military market.
As the 1995 Quebec referendum approached, many firms announced publicly that they would leave Quebec in the event of a "yes" vote. This certainly brought pressure to bear on the undecided. Firms in Scotland at risk due to a "yes" vote should all be making similar annoucements.
 
Growth through acquisitions & mergers, not organic growth, but growth nevertheless.
That's cheating. :)

RBS acquisitons, were and still are a joke. The ABN deal (growth as you call it) is still unbelievable by today's standards. RBS only successful growth story was Natwest back in late 90's early part of this century.

The only aspect that the Scotland can truly call a 'success' in the financial services industry are the Asset/ Pension fund managers - and there are a few, with reasonable AUM.
 

RobWilliams

Super Moderator
Staff member
There's a law in the EU which states that a bank must headquarter itself in the country where it does most business.

That means the vast majority - if not all - of banks in Scotland will move south.

As will a huge amount of jobs especially highly skilled jobs which rely on the UK.

Nick, I think Standard Life is one of those and they're going to move south too.
 
There's a law in the EU which states that a bank must headquarter itself in the country where it does most business.

That means the vast majority - if not all - of banks in Scotland will move south.

As will a huge amount of jobs especially highly skilled jobs which rely on the UK.

Nick, I think Standard Life is one of those and they're going to move south too.
There are loopholes in that piece of EU legislation, but you're correct.

Standard Life is a big piece if they decide, so too Scottish Widows (effectively Lloyds banner). Aberdeen AM, the largest mgr that will stay in all likelihood. CEO is backing 'Yes'.
 

Beatmaster

New Member
Lots of the news coming from London about the possible independence of Scotland is just scaremongering.
I got family myself in Edinburgh and you should hear them about the policies set by London, which favors "south" in every regard.
This has been going on for years, London promising all kinds of powers and changes, but so far none have been given...

Yeah little teasers like a kid gets a piece of candy... But for the Scots there is nothing to gain, losing their jobs, losing health-care, losing education programs and so on.
This is not just some tiny problem, its about the fact that Scots always have been outsiders and always have been handled as such.

England has something to lose here as the Scots pay the majority part of the taxes levied over the UK's population people need to realize that a vast part of the British economy comes from the Scots, and London tries to scaremonger the Scots.

Tell a Scot what he cannot do, and see what he will do...lol.

I am sure both sides will suffer from this, but i am also sure that Scotland will be a success if the vote remains yes, there is lots of talk about the Scottish cash flow and sustainability with declining north sea oil revenues however fact is that this money goes to London and Scotland does not see a penny of it.
Many years the Scots have been asking for changes, and years on end they have been promised that changes would come.
Today many Scottish people lost their jobs and lost options that the "south" still has.
Family of mine has a own company and there are tax rules and other shady policies that only apply to the Scottish while the south does not have these "restrictions & Policies" So ask yourself the question: Why would Scotland NOT be independent?
If London would handle them in exactly the same way as they would handle the rest of the UK then things would be different and the Scots would be "happy" to remain in the union.

And all these big companies that claim they will move to London if Scotland becomes independent is just scaremongering by London lobby as has been explained on many many news outlets and has been explained by many analysts.
If London is right, then Scotland will become a western third world country..really?
Thats just bull...
In terms of military and defense agreements there is so much for both at stake that i am sure that there will be some sort of agreement that suit both, Diplomacy wise the EU might have a problem with Scotland but this will sort itself over time, as Scotland with its vast resources will be to important to ignore.

The real issue will be London as England will have to do some serious soul searching, because their economy will pretty much be dropping down a big chunk and with the economic crisis still going on London will be begging for the Scots to stay.

That said given the first hand info i got from family, if i where Scottish i would vote yes with a passion.
But ill guess time will tell who is right and wrong.
Right now both sides are doing their part in propaganda and scaremongering.
 

RobWilliams

Super Moderator
Staff member
Yes. it's just 'scaremongering' that all of these companies representing many different areas of industry voicing big concerns over their operations in Scotland in either relocation (by law), jobs or price rises.

That's what it is, them crafty English people. Not legitimate concerns from companies who have one priority - make as much money as possible.

This morning there was another half dozen (this time telecoms) saying their prices in Scotland will go up.

You mean those 'vast' resources of oil which the top oil businessman (said by both Cameron and Salmond) says the predictions coming from the SNP are severely inflated (and will be all but gone by 2050) and that claim has been backed by both Shell and BP? You mean *those* vast reserves?
 
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