Russia's Military Expansion

SolarWind

Active Member
When Chruschev said that we will build communism in 20 years he planted ideological bomb under USSR, everybody knew, it cant be build in 20 years.

Nobody is saying that we hadn't our economical problems, but they were not desicive in this situation. And yes elite hand maded some of them, for example trains with goods stayed weeks in warehouses to hand made consumer collapse 80s.
The dream Communism is an utopia, it could hardly ever be built, unless robots or slaves do all the work. Perhaps for the ruling class it was the reality.

It just seems very far fetched to think that the USSR Elites quietly worked for 20 years to undermine the USSR just so that they could happily join Europe. Would seem extremely foolish.

So I think there wasn't more to sacrifice at end of the Cold War beyond Eastern Europe's occupation. The sacrifice of Soviet pride is an internal matter to every disillusioned individual and has little to do with the West.
 

Kirza_rus

New Member
So I think there wasn't more to sacrifice at end of the Cold War beyond Eastern Europe's occupation. .
Nothing to sacrifice except that Russian today is still living on economical legacy of USSR. Total economical weekness of USSR is propaganda.
 
Last edited:

Tsavo Lion

Banned Member
East European countries that tried to be neutral in the past found themselves invaded & subjected to horrors: mass murders by the state, dispossession, deportations . . . The Baltic states, for example, see NATO as the only alternative to being client states of Russia, . . .
Or they could follow Finland- it bordered on the USSR but emerged from the Cold War unscratched! Russia warns of 'risks' should Sweden join NATO
Russia issues NATO warning to Sweden
Still, Ukraine as a whole remains burdened by its status as a geopolitical battleground. The war in eastern Ukraine has taken more than 10,000 lives since 2014. The reform efforts by the government in Kiev have been mixed at best, and corruption is still a major issue in Ukraine. In the meantime, daily life for most Ukrainian citizens continues to be a struggle, and many in the country are worse off economically than they were before the EuroMaidan events. Prices for food and utilities have increased, while for most people wages have not kept up with inflation. Ukraine: Young Entrepreneurs Taking Matters into Their Own Hands
[URL="http://https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwirw_jGuY3QAhXK7CYKHfQTAXAQFggdMAA&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.stratfor.com%2Fimage%2Frussias-perpetual-pattern-expansion-and-decline&usg=AFQjCNFVja-Qh6GK7VcI3931hblywD-N5Q"]Russia's Perpetual Pattern of Expansion and Decline[/URL]
For nearly eight centuries, Russia has been trapped in a loose cycle: It rises from chaos, returns as a regional and sometimes even global power, grows aggressive as the system cracks, and then collapses before rising again. Russia's cycle starts with a catalyst that causes governance to break down and disrupts the social order, leading to collapse. In the 13th century, it was the Mongol invasion; in the 17th century, the Time of Troubles; in the 20th century, the Russian Revolution, fall of the Soviet Union and the 1998 financial crisis. And after collapse comes resurrection. Typically the system that governed during the crisis is transformed into something new — usually with a strong personality at the fore. This figure tends to create a stable system in which Russia can consolidate itself and its borderlands. All those systems, however, have fallen into the problematic pattern of trying to consolidate the heartland while expanding Russian influence, practically ensuring their own collapse. Expanding Russian influence comes at an immense financial, military, political and social cost. When the inevitable stress points begin to emerge, Moscow tends to tighten its grip and to act more aggressively within and along its borders. Eventually, cracks in the system force a complete transformation. Then the cycle begins anew. That cycle is less about political choices than it is about geographic constraints. Russia operates from an inherently weak geographic position. It is the largest country in the world, covering roughly 13 time zones (split now into four mega-zones). Yet 75 percent of the country is virtually uninhabitable frozen tundra [& taiga] that becomes marshland in the summer, making domestic trade extremely difficult. Maritime trade is also difficult for Russia, given that its only warm-water port, on the Black Sea, is blocked by rivals, including Turkey. Therefore, the country has struggled to develop economically. Furthermore, Russia's heartland — which runs from St. Petersburg south through Moscow and into the Volga region — lies on a series of plains, making it vulnerable from all sides. This has forced Russia to seek to expand its borders and influence outward to create a buffer zone between its heartland and rival regional powers. Thus the dilemma: Russia must expand to survive, but that expansion is unsustainable and has historically led to its collapse.
Another article worth reading: Russia and the Curse of Geography
 
Last edited:

swerve

Super Moderator
Finland emerged unscathed? Really? You have an odd idea of what unscathed means. What about the unprovoked invasion of Finland by the USSR before the Cold War, in 1939? I've been to Vyborg, one of Finland's major cities before WW2, & carved off by Stalin. If Finland hadn't fought so bloody hard, he'd have carved off a hell of a lot more, maybe the whole country, as he did to Estonia, Latvia & Lithuania - also unprovoked.

Finland suffered heavy losses, both human & material. Almost all of the population of the lands the USSR took (10% of the population of the country) fled, rather than live in the USSR. And Finland got off lightly compared to the Baltic states. Mass murder, even greater deportations, & huge numbers of Russians moved in & settled in places locals were forced out of.

Do you wonder why they don't trust Russia? Unlike Germany, it's not distanced itself from those past - but from which there are still survivors - wrongs. I recall Finns visiting Viborg to see their old home town, for example, taken over by Russians.

It clearly doesn't occur to you, any more than Putin, that Russia could have got a buffer zone by making friends with the countries on its borders, apologising for its past mistreatment, & making honest attempts to show that it's changed. Instead, Putin's government has done everything it could to prove that their fear & mistrust is justified. The sun & the north wind, eh?

BTW, Finland had to surrender a lot of independence to the USSR after WW2. Its foreign relations were severely limited, & it had a Soviet military base on its territory until 1956. It would have been longer, but Khrushchev gave it back early.
 

SolarWind

Active Member
Nothing to sacrifice except that Russian today is still living on economical legacy of USSR. Total economical weekness of USSR is propaganda.
Russia may yet recover and prosper as a capitalist country, subject to internal stability and the wisdom of its leadership.

Russia expected to return to growth in 2017: IMF

To earlier discussion, I would like to add the following. The idea that Russian elites allowed the USSR to breakup because they wanted to start a new project, is similar to saying that a collapsing building was allowed to be demolished because it needed remodeling. It sounds like an anecdote. I would argue that, instead, the Russian elites got the idea of Western culture's comparative advantages due to Western prosperity in the face of prolonged stagnation and imminent failure of the USSR, and as a result were prepared for and had no qualms over its collapse.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Well, if I might, the main barrier to European integration now is Crimea. The Western demands to return Crimea to Ukraine, which Russia could never ever agree to.
Back in 2000 Putin even mentioned Russia potentially joining NATO. Crimea was annexed in 2014. Clearly there were other barriers. And it's not like they've disappeared. You really think if Russia were to hand Crimea (against the will of its inhabitants) back over to the impoverished, corrupt, and increasingly authoritarian hell-hole that is Ukraine, it would suddenly be integrated into the West?

Just so we're on the same page, Crimea is small stuff compared to Putin's involvement in Eastern Ukraine, as far as the EU is concerned anyway.

The Soviet project failed long before USSR fell apart. The failure of the Soviet project was due to undeliverable promises of heavenly prosperity under Communism, to faulty economic principles, and to the growing complexity of advancing technology. The failure to build Communism, that is to break into heavenly prosperity by sticking to Communist/Socialist doctrine, was observed by Chruschev, although he was puzzled as to the reasons.

Economic situation in turn collapsed because Brezhnev and Co. decided to rely on Oil incomes instead of seeking the expansion of domestic economy through diversification. So when oil prices collapsed in the 80's, USSR economy collapsed with it.
But it didn't collapse. It wasn't doing as well but it was far from collapsing.

By the time Gorbachev started Perestroika, the long protracted war in Afghanistan had exhausted the USSR, and together with economic downfall and disillusionment with the Communist heavenly prosperity dream, lead to civil unrest, separatism, and near anarchy.
The cost of the War in Afghanistan was relatively low. Far from exhausting the country. It certainly didn't help but there were bigger issues. Near anarchy didn't kick in until the 90's.

So as these events unfolded, it was obvious to many in Russia that there was little, if any, actual value in the Soviet project remaining to be sacrificed. And that the command economy and the promised Communist heavenly prosperity were beyond saving because they could never succeed in the first place.

Finally, the USSR was not dissolved, but fell apart because the individual Republics wanted independence, and took it when and while they could, even without weighting the economic consequences. Now, Gorbachev wrote a book on why it was possible to save the USSR, but it was a moot point because the USSR collapsed anyhow, and there is no end to writing many books.
Not quite. It wasn't "individual republics". It was Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. The USSR was dissolved by it's original Union treaty signatories. Soviet government officials were the ones who dissolved it. Basically the Soviet government tossed the CPSU out the window, and then pulled the country apart because it was easier to rob the people blind that way.

So, I still don't understand what the actual sacrifices were, except the Soviet pride. I have never heard of any actual demands by the West for the Russian Federation to break up in pieces, and would appreciate if you would share any sources of such information. If this was the case, I do not understand why Russia would still want to integrate into the West unless they were ready to concede.
There was considerable western pressure to let Ichkeriya secede. And this was at a time when regions in Russia were printing their own money, and Tatarstan was 6 inches away from independence itself. There's a very good chance that had someone not first cracked down on Chechnya in the mid 90's (they had turned into a source of drugs, weapons and human slaves) and then eliminated the incredible level of autonomy that local bosses had through a fusion of state-backed force wielding institutions, local crime syndicates, and major economic enterprises, Russia would have faced an existential crisis.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The dream Communism is an utopia, it could hardly ever be built, unless robots or slaves do all the work. Perhaps for the ruling class it was the reality.

It just seems very far fetched to think that the USSR Elites quietly worked for 20 years to undermine the USSR just so that they could happily join Europe. Would seem extremely foolish.

So I think there wasn't more to sacrifice at end of the Cold War beyond Eastern Europe's occupation. The sacrifice of Soviet pride is an internal matter to every disillusioned individual and has little to do with the West.
Communism, in Marxist theory, is the mode of production that follows capitalism, just like capitalism followed feudalism. It's not a utopia, it's inevitable. Unless of course you think that capitalism is the "end of history" in a Hegelian sense.

What communism will actually look like is a matter of some debate and confusion, but denying it is just silly. Prima facie, communism is tautologically correct because it's simply a term to denote whatever follows capitalism.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Finland emerged unscathed? Really? You have an odd idea of what unscathed means. What about the unprovoked invasion of Finland by the USSR before the Cold War, in 1939? I've been to Vyborg, one of Finland's major cities before WW2, & carved off by Stalin. If Finland hadn't fought so bloody hard, he'd have carved off a hell of a lot more, maybe the whole country, as he did to Estonia, Latvia & Lithuania - also unprovoked.

Finland suffered heavy losses, both human & material. Almost all of the population of the lands the USSR took (10% of the population of the country) fled, rather than live in the USSR. And Finland got off lightly compared to the Baltic states. Mass murder, even greater deportations, & huge numbers of Russians moved in & settled in places locals were forced out of.

Do you wonder why they don't trust Russia? Unlike Germany, it's not distanced itself from those past - but from which there are still survivors - wrongs. I recall Finns visiting Viborg to see their old home town, for example, taken over by Russians.

It clearly doesn't occur to you, any more than Putin, that Russia could have got a buffer zone by making friends with the countries on its borders, apologising for its past mistreatment, & making honest attempts to show that it's changed. Instead, Putin's government has done everything it could to prove that their fear & mistrust is justified. The sun & the north wind, eh?

BTW, Finland had to surrender a lot of independence to the USSR after WW2. Its foreign relations were severely limited, & it had a Soviet military base on its territory until 1956. It would have been longer, but Khrushchev gave it back early.
But it did get off lightly compared to Hitler's other allies who had Soviet military bases on their soil until 1989. Given Finland's role in the blockade of Leningrad, one might say that they owe a lot to their crafty policy decisions.
 

SolarWind

Active Member
Communism, in Marxist theory, is the mode of production that follows capitalism, just like capitalism followed feudalism. It's not a utopia, it's inevitable. Unless of course you think that capitalism is the "end of history" in a Hegelian sense.

What communism will actually look like is a matter of some debate and confusion, but denying it is just silly. Prima facie, communism is tautologically correct because it's simply a term to denote whatever follows capitalism.
I was referring to Communist Society, sorry for not looking up the correct term to use.

Communism is a specific stage of socioeconomic development predicated upon a superabundance of material wealth, which is postulated to arise from advances in production technology and corresponding changes in the social relations of production. This would allow for distribution based on need and social relations based on freely-associated individuals.
Very much like heaven on earth, isn't it?

The completion of Communist Society was actively promised to Russians by their leaders and used as a motivator, especially during the most difficult times. And you know where that went.

Thank you Feanor, enjoy your comments as always.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I was referring to Communist Society, sorry for not looking up the correct term to use.



Very much like heaven on earth, isn't it?

The completion of Communist Society was actively promised to Russians by their leaders and used as a motivator, especially during the most difficult times. And you know where that went.

Thank you Feanor, enjoy your comments as always.
To a serf in Medieval Europe today's middle class lifestyle would seem like heaven on earth.

Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. ;)

Finally don't confuse the meaning of communism in Marxist political science and political philosophy with promises made by particular politicians in particular countries.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
But it did get off lightly compared to Hitler's other allies who had Soviet military bases on their soil until 1989. Given Finland's role in the blockade of Leningrad, one might say that they owe a lot to their crafty policy decisions.
Finland got off lightly for a few reasons. One was that it had proved itself a hard nut in 1939-40. BTW, it wasn't, strictly speaking, an ally of Hitler. It was technically a co-belligerent, fighting the same enemy but with no formal alliance. It steadfastly refused to declare war on anyone except the USSR, or do anything except along its own border, or enforce Hitler's racial laws. It didn't attack Leningrad: it stopped just over the pre-war border, & didn't try to go further & close off all the supply routes across Lake Ladoga. That hindered supply of the city, but much less than it could have done. The Finns infuriated Hitler by their reluctance to do more. And Stalin knew very well (though of course he'd never admit it) that Finland fighting alongside Germany was his own fault, for attacking Finland.
 

Tsavo Lion

Banned Member
But it did get off lightly compared to Hitler's other allies who had Soviet military bases on their soil until 1989. Given Finland's role in the blockade of Leningrad, one might say that they owe a lot to their crafty policy decisions.
Yes! They got their independence in 1918, & I don't deny that Stalin ordered
1938 invasion and all horrors that followed. However, my prev. post talks about post-, NOT PRE/DURING WWII Finland! Going back into Scandinavian history, Sweden may deserve even more blame- Finland was under Swedish rule from 1249 to 1809 with her several wars against Russia! IMO, the Finns will be much better off by keeping NATO & Sweden at arms length while staying on friendly terms with Russia!
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Finland was an integral part of Sweden, with parliamentary representation (Sweden was a constitutional monarchy with an elected - but weak - parliament), until Russia took it in a war. The Swedes left it with a decent legal system & administration (no serfdom, for example), & it was lucky, because unlike Poland the Tsars didn't break their promises & soon abolish local laws & limited self-government - at least, not until 1899, when Nikolai started trying to erode Finnish freedoms & Russify the country.

Your cut-off is artificial & misleading. During the Cold War Finland's foreign & defence policies were constrained by the treaty forced on it at the end of WW2 by the USSR. 'Finlandisation' was used to describe a state of subservience to the USSR, but retaining internal independence, which I think was seen by many in the Soviet leadership as a model for other European countries, if it could be imposed on them. Better than being in Comecon & the Warsaw Pact & being forced to be communist, but the Finns were delighted when they were able to throw off the shackles, light though they were.

The experience of the Finns at the hands of the Russians is better than those of the Balts to their south, but it was still negative. The experience of the Balts was horrific, & the behaviour of Russia towards them in recent years has given them excellent reasons not to place any trust whatsoever in Russian intentions. Russia hasn't offered them friendship: it's offered threats.

You keep saying that countries should seek friendship with Russia. Why don't you suggest that Russia should seek friendship with them?
 

Tsavo Lion

Banned Member
As czar Alexander I said, "Russia has only 2 allies: her army and navy". Britain, Sweden & Turkey tried economically & later militarily to contain Russia by keeping her away from regaining/getting/keeping access to the Baltic, Azov & Black seas- that's why 1st fleet on the warm sea was home ported in Astrakhan, on the Caspian that is just a big salt lake with no outlet. Later, it was a similar story with Japan on the Yellow Sea & Sea of Japan. During the Crimean War, the British even bombarded Petropavlovsk on Kamchatka, in the NW Pacific. I don't think it would matter much how friendly Russia had tried to be with them. Here is another example: Romania was surrounded by other East Bloc members but was allowed to conduct more independent foreign policy- in this case, her geography helped! Regarding the Baltics:
When the Soviet Union disappeared, they carried out their referendums and they were allowed to “go in peace”, no one threatened them. No attempts were made to retain the Baltic states with violence despite the fact that there were different opinions on that issue. For this, no one has seen or heard any gratitude. Furthermore, they started to say the Soviet Union had “abused, used, exploited”. And some are issuing bills for USD 185 million for I don’t know what. Because we built industries there, modernised their economies, and because investments per capita were much higher than in the Russian Soviet republic? ..For Nato’s part they understood that modern Russia was not a threat to the Baltic countries, but if they are received in Nato they will calm down and there will be peaceful and good relations. They joined Nato but no calm ensued, particularly not with our Lithuanian neighbour. For some reason Lithuania is the most aggressive russophobic country and is pushing Nato in an anti-Russian direction. Russia issues NATO warning to Sweden - DN.SE
So, each side has their own perspectives & legitimate grievances, 7 it's better to consider them all before making assumptions on the current situation.
 
Last edited:

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Finland got off lightly for a few reasons. One was that it had proved itself a hard nut in 1939-40. BTW, it wasn't, strictly speaking, an ally of Hitler. It was technically a co-belligerent, fighting the same enemy but with no formal alliance. It steadfastly refused to declare war on anyone except the USSR, or do anything except along its own border, or enforce Hitler's racial laws. It didn't attack Leningrad: it stopped just over the pre-war border, & didn't try to go further & close off all the supply routes across Lake Ladoga. That hindered supply of the city, but much less than it could have done. The Finns infuriated Hitler by their reluctance to do more. And Stalin knew very well (though of course he'd never admit it) that Finland fighting alongside Germany was his own fault, for attacking Finland.
There's a good argument to be made that they couldn't attack Leningrad, due to stiff resistance along a narrow corridor in difficult terrain (the same factors but in reverse, that shaped the Winter War) coupled with a lack of super-heavy artillery that would have allowed them to participate in bombardments of the city. At the end of the day, Finland was small and weak, and certainly Germany wouldn't have handed Leningrad over to the Finns, which means there's 0 incentive for the Finns to participate in taking it.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
You should also consider Finland's motivation. First & foremost, getting back the Finnish-inhabited (until 1940) lands they'd lost. Second, getting other border lands inhabited by Finns & people speaking closely related languages or dialects, e.g. Karelians. The Finns did not, under any circumstances, want Leningrad. If they'd been offered it without having to lift a finger for it, they'd have refused. They really, really didn't want lots of disgruntled Russians within their borders, or even in territory they were occupying.
 

Tsavo Lion

Banned Member
Sweden's rule was far from benign. Pl. read the whole thing!
Had Lenin secured those areas/borderlands before agreeing to Finland independence, there would have been no need for Stalin to later take them by force- this was their "West Bank"! Now, if Yeltsin said to return it to RF when Ukraine's Kravchuk asked him "what about Crimea?", since pre-1954 it was in the RFSR, instead of "Yes, take it!" there would be no need for what we saw last year! Also, although the Barents Sea isn't warm, Murmansk is ice free all year round, giving Russia direct access to N. Atlantic. That port played very important role in land-lease convoys to USSR in WWII.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
What the hell has Crimea got to do with Karelia? Karelia - populated by Finns as far back as records go, while Crimea was first conquered by Russia in the late 18th century, & didn't even have a Russian majority until after the deportation of the Crimean Tatars in 1944. You think they're in the same category? That's bizarre.

And what has Murmansk to do with anything? It wasn't Finnish, & the Finns didn't want it. There was a half-hearted German-led attempt in 1941 to cut the railway, & maybe take Murmansk, but it was abandoned rather quickly.

As for Swedish rule being benign or not - it was like other European countries in most respects. The rich were rich & the poor were poor, & justice was harsh by our standards. But the peasants weren't serfs, unlike in Russia, and the monarchs weren't absolute rulers. Well over half the population could read when Finland was taken by Russia, which was vastly more than in Russia. Benign? Not compared to now, but compared to Russia at the time it was very benign.
 

Tsavo Lion

Banned Member
Benign or not, the Swedes had their Finns fight Russia and as a result were invaded and incorporated into an empire by the latter. I mentioned Murmansk as tangentially related in this regional context to Russia's mil. expansion history. Recent events in Crimea & Ukraine in general, with internal conflict, outside interference, & loss of territory are similar to what already happened to Finland. With regards to E./N. Europe, perhaps 21st century version of Finlandization would still be better than becoming a battleground again!
 
Last edited:

swerve

Super Moderator
Well, there's a simple answer to that. Persuade the Russian state to behave as if it's run by civilised human beings, & refrain from attacking its neighbours. Then the Finns, Estonians, Latvians etc. can get on with their own business in peace. They won't need much in the way of armed forces, or foreign military aid. Problem solved!

Can you think of a better solution?

I refer you - yet again - to the parable of the sun & the north wind.
 
Top