Russia's Arctic Expansion

[Feanor]

OSC North is getting the project 21180 icebreakers, as well as unspecified patrol ships and support vessels, designed for operating in those waters.

ÎÑÊ óæå ñîçäàåò êîðàáëè è ñóäà äëÿ êîìàíäîâàíèÿ "Ñåâåð"
http://admship.ru/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/adm_08_14.pdf

It looks like these plans were in the works for a while.

 

[gf0012-aust]

Only if the platforms are oil, gas projects are still firmly on the table and Norwegian companies are still selling services with Foreign Ministry approvals.

deep sea projects are all on the embargo table - the majority of tech support, technology etc is western - and the estimates are that up to half of the tech and expertise is norwegian.

The fish is interesting, Kirill a colleague of mine told me the other day Norwegian salmon now comes into Russia via Belarus, it's a little bit more expensive but you can still get it.

it's also helped that russian industry has bitterly complained as some of the targeted species seriously impact on basic food supply and processing, so Putin has "exempted" some species from bans as they are now covered under a "national interest" clause.

A number of Norwegian think tanks (equiv to ISS and ASPI) are detailing the impacts

 

[KiwiRob]

gf0012 the EU and Norway only sanctioned oil not gas, which is why the Yamal LNG project is still on the table. This is being worked on by Technip and JGC, orders are being placed and delivered. I have an email from the Norwegian Foreign Office spelling out very clearly what projects can and can't be delivered to. Oil off the table, gas good to go, which makes no sense at all.

I believe more Norwegian companies are impacted by the Norwegian govt sanctions then the Russian sanctions. A lot of companies I know with significant exposure to Russia are suffering.

 

[gf0012-aust]

gf0012 the EU and Norway only sanctioned oil not gas, which is why the Yamal LNG project is still on the table. This is being worked on by Technip and JGC, orders are being placed and delivered. I have an email from the Norwegian Foreign Office spelling out very clearly what projects can and can't be delivered to. Oil off the table, gas good to go, which makes no sense at all.

I believe more Norwegian companies are impacted by the Norwegian govt sanctions then the Russian sanctions. A lot of companies I know with significant exposure to Russia are suffering.

the NG has clearly identified whats next on the list if russia continues down her path. they are more than curious that after decades of fish exports that all of a sudden norwegian fish have been failing health checks and were starting to be progressively banned

the issue of banning tech support to the russians has been flagged and identified for at least the last 6 months of various briefs and reports that cross my desk. NG is also willing to change the mix as there is a view that the russians are using trade as a variation of the "finlandisation" of baltic neighbours.

 

[Feanor]

the NG has clearly identified whats next on the list if russia continues down her path. they are more than curious that after decades of fish exports that all of a sudden norwegian fish have been failing health checks and were starting to be progressively banned

There is nothing curious about this. Anybody who follows Russian government actions should know that Rospotrebnadzor is an agency that, in addition to legitimate consumer safety, acts as an instrument of Russian political pressure on neighboring countries by banning products under the guise of "safety". It's a clear, blatantly obvious, message being sent to Norway.

the issue of banning tech support to the russians has been flagged and identified for at least the last 6 months of various briefs and reports that cross my desk. NG is also willing to change the mix as there is a view that the russians are using trade as a variation of the "finlandisation" of baltic neighbours.

Can you elaborate on that last sentence? What do you mean by finlandisation?

 

[gf0012-aust]

Can you elaborate on that last sentence? What do you mean by finlandisation?

[ame="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finlandization"]Finlandization - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia[/ame]

 

[Feanor]

Finlandization - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Interesting. I think they're right about Russia wanting to do this to the Baltics.

 

[KiwiRob]

the NG has clearly identified whats next on the list if russia continues down her path.

So is this your round about way of agreeing with me that gas projects are not covered by the sanctions. The EU have also not sanctioned the gas sector, it's only the US who have sanctioned both.

I am really looking forward to seeing the outcome of Exxon defying the US sanctions and forging ahead with it's drilling program in Sakhalin. Sanctions will cost them, Exxon, billions.

Exxon Riles U.S., EU by Using Sanctions Loophole - Bloomberg

This article from Time is also well worth a read, it's wrapped the whole conflict up nicely and if you read the last paragraph makes you wonder what all the fuss is about, all those people killed for nothing IMO, especially since the EU has given Russia what it wanted in the first place, as seat at the table.

How Putin Got His Way In Ukraine

 

[KiwiRob]

Interesting. I think they're right about Russia wanting to do this to the Baltics.

Which is what the US has been doing in Central and South America since forever, there is no difference between Russian policy and the Monroe Doctrine IMO, even though Kerry has said it's dead (yeah right).

 

[gf0012-aust]

So is this your round about way of agreeing with me that gas projects are not covered by the sanctions. The EU have also not sanctioned the gas sector, it's only the US who have sanctioned both.

I hope you're not trolling here - I've been quite clear that I'm citing material on what I see on regular alerts and briefs. I'm not in the mood for snarky commentary

I note you're happy to defend russian interests a number of times, and if thats based on your own vested interests so be it

it doesn't alter what I see and what has been appearing about russian behaviour in the last 3 years and what comes out of analysts shops like NUPI. Russia is highly dependant on western tech to get some of their deep sea resource mgt working - and there has been increasing persistent discussions that Norway should withdraw people and tech support

there's even data which states how long it would take for russian rigs to fail if baltic specialists are withdrawn

quite frankly there are some in NG who are fed up with russian blackmail of norwegian transnational trade.

 

[KiwiRob]

Not trolling at all, I just don't agree with your reading of the situation in relation to what Norway will and will not allow. What I have stated is what I know to be correct based on my contact with the Norwegian Foreign Office over the past couple of weeks. I sell to Russia, I have to know what I can't and can't sell and who I can and can't sell to. Unless the situation changes I can sell to gas projects and non deep water oil projects, I also have a list of companies I can't sell to. So far Norway hasn't defined what deepwater is, neither has Europe, the US defines it as over 400m.

And yes I do have a vested interest in the conflict being over and sanctions removed, it makes my job far easier when unworkable sanctions like this don't exist, they are IMO causing as much grief to European companies as they are to Russia.

 

[Feanor]

Which is what the US has been doing in Central and South America since forever, there is no difference between Russian policy and the Monroe Doctrine IMO, even though Kerry has said it's dead (yeah right).

I have no interest in making moral judgements here. It's politics, morality doesn't exist there. I knew the state of Finland during the Cold War, but I didn't know that it was a term (finlandisation). It's interesting, and certainly likely that Russia seems to be pursuing a similar state with regards to the Baltics. I'm not sure it will work though. Finland had intelligent and flexible leadership, while the Baltics are enamored with their small-town nationalism. I'm not sure countries that host SS veteran parades will be able to adapt flexibly to a complex situation like Finland was. On the other hand NATO isn't going anywhere, it certainly isn't losing a world war like the 3rd Reich was. So the Baltics have a powerful backer. I think they will choose confrontation.

 

[Feanor]

Two new Arctic Brigades will be formed, one possibly the 80th Motor-Rifles near Murmansk, and another un-named in Yamal. ELINT stations, and radar pickets are planned on many of the Arctic islands.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - ÐрктичеÑÐºÐ°Ñ Ð³Ñ€ÑƒÐ¿Ð¿Ð¸Ñ€Ð¾Ð²ÐºÐ°
Добро пожаловать в журнал Ð*оÑтовÑкого Орла - ÐрктичеÑкие бригады

Meanwhile Pacific Fleet Marines landed on an Arctic islands (Vrangel' Island). It was part of Vostok-2014 exercises.

https://www.google.com/maps/place/W...2!3m1!1s0x50a70636a5f5033f:0xe1dca925085b4bc3
http://twower.livejournal.com/1437404.html

All of this points to their intent to gain the ability to physically put boots on the ground across the Arctic.

 

[Feanor]

Do you know more about this?

So here's confirmation of my prognosis about 2017-18 for the mass production of the next-gen platforms. Khalitov, a representative from UVZ, on a public radio talk show, states that they are preparing for serial production of the Armata tank in the 2017-18 timeframe. The interview is in Russian, and unfortunately no text, just a youtube video. Let me know if you need help with translation.

Gur Khan attacks!:

 

[alexkvaskov]

So here's confirmation of my prognosis about 2017-18 for the mass production of the next-gen platforms. Khalitov, a representative from UVZ, on a public radio talk show, states that they are preparing for serial production of the Armata tank in the 2017-18 timeframe. The interview is in Russian, and unfortunately no text, just a youtube video. Let me know if you need help with translation.

Gur Khan attacks!:

Thank you for bring this to my attention. Russian is my first language so I should be good. 2018 seems like a bit of a delay, IIRC Armata was scheduled for 2016? Curious how he neglected to mention the T-80 as part of the fleet.

 

[Feanor]

Thank you for bring this to my attention. Russian is my first language so I should be good. 2018 seems like a bit of a delay, IIRC Armata was scheduled for 2016? Curious how he neglected to mention the T-80 as part of the fleet.

It was scheduled for 2015. Originally LRIP was to start in 2014 with experimental exploitation to commence side by side with state trials. Then in 2015 serial deliveries were set to begin.

The T-80 has mostly been phased out. There's a few still left, but they're firmly in the minority and on their way out.

 

[KiwiRob]

Mokrushin actually participated in Kara Summer 2014, which is a Rosneft expedition to the Arctic. His posts on the subject can be read here, with the tag экспедиция. They are, of course, in Russia but even the photos are worth looking at.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½

I sold all the lighting for Akademik Treshnikov the vessel used in the expedition, one of the most challenging lighting specs for any vessel we had done up to that time.

Argentina were looking at building a sister vessel a couple of year back.

 

[Feanor]

Update time.

The new OSC is called Northern Fleet, not North. It appears that the VMF will take charge of the arctic expansion.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - О новом ОСК

The 80th Arctic Motor-Rifles Brigade has been formed, with an unclear structure, and MT-LB VMK for it's standard vehicles. New vehicles are expected in the next few months, currently in trials. What's interesting is the amount of infrastructure that's been built, including a new school and kindergarten, and apartments for officers and NCOs.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - 80-Ñ Ð¾Ð¼Ñбр
bmpd - 80-Ñ Ð¼Ð¾Ñ‚Ð¾ÑÑ‚Ñ€ÐµÐ»ÐºÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ñ (арктичеÑкаÑ) бригада СФ-ОСК "Север" получила Боевое ЗнамÑ
Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - О 80-й арктичеÑкой

A second arctic brigade is planned in 2016.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - ОСК "Север"

They're also getting an S-400 regiment this year.

prokhor_tebin: С-400 на Севере

Photos from the second naval convoy to sail into the arctic with troops and supplies, part of the program of setting up Russian military presence on the various arctic islands.

«Второй ÐрктичеÑкий конвой и не только» в блоге «Фотофакты» - Сделано у наÑ

SpetzStroy has completed another military base on an arctic island in the Land of Frantz Iosif.

«СпецÑтрой Ñдал в ÑкÑплуатацию в Ðрктике третий военный городок» в блоге «ÐÑ€Ð¼Ð¸Ñ Ð¸ Флот» - Сделано у наÑ

And the MoD is conducting mobility trials of various vehicles in the arctic, probably to determine what kind of equipment the arctic troops actually need.

Минобороны РоÑÑии направило колонну военной техники в Ðрктику

Old (November 2014) photos of the Temp airfield on the island Kotelniy, in the arctic ocean. The airfield was only reopened last year.

Добро пожаловать в журнал РоÑтовÑкого Орла - Вертолеты на аÑродроме "Темп" на оÑтрове Котельный

 

[John Fedup]

The Russian committment to their Arctic territory is something we in Canada can only dream about. We might actually build 5 AOPVs and an icebreaker. Expect completion with the disappearance of the polar ice-cap.

 

[Feanor]

Some interesting updates. The 80th Arctic Motor-Rifles have been formed for some time now. Here's a little info on a recent training exercise with OSC North, where they dispatched a btln. Previously the brigade was confirmed to have MT-LBs for APCs, which is a logical choice. They have excellent mobility and cost basically nothing (giant stockpiles still exist from the Soviet era). They have also been used in Arctic conditions by another motor-rifle unit (the 200th MRBde near Murmansk).

However new tracked (presumably unarmored) vehicles have also been spotted. They look like the TTM 4902, which was earlier proposed for Arctic Brigade use. The planned new armored arctic vehicles are yet to be seen in the metal.

bmpd - Первое учение первой арктичеÑкой бригады

The brigade has also taken delivery of 4-wheel ATVs, and possibly other equipment. The Army-2015 forum certainly provides food for thought, though do keep in mind that those are not MoD displays, but rather done by the manufacturer.

The giant arctic MT-LBu is particularly interesting. It's certainly a better option then the current MT-LBs, with the decent combat module, and dozer blade (not to mention much greater internal volume). However if it does get purchased, it would likely mean that the arctic vehicle program is in trouble, and a stop-gap is necessary. Technically a filial of UVZ is responsible for the new Arctic armored platforms, so money shouldn't be the issue. Nor can it be that hard to armor a DT-30P, and stick an unmanned combat module on the roof.

alexeyvvo - ÐрмиÑ-2015: техника Ð´Ð»Ñ Ð°Ñ€ÐºÑ̲ичеÑких бригад