Russia - General Discussion.

KipPotapych

Active Member
To add, in regards to the Moscow market:





I haven’t been to Russia in a long time. The last time was about… over 15 years ago. I have no idea how things have changed since (if at all?) in terms of what police is outfitted with. Prior and during my last visit, a normal police street patrol usually consisted of three people: one would be an officer armed with a sidearm, the two others usually had a completely different uniform and were equipped with batons and no firearms. Some officers had a baton as well, in addition to a handgun, if I recall correctly. That was a normal “team” patrolling the streets and populated places. Both, officers and the other dudes, looked like a joke in terms of equipment compared to any cop you would meet on the street in Canada today. For instance, there was no personal protection equipment at all.

Even at the airport (Domodedovo was the one where we landed), I haven’t seen any presence of “we mean business” police either - mostly the street officer type with a sidearm in groups of 2 or 3 (no baton dudes). The airport itself, by the way, was a joke. I believe they were expanding at the time and I am sure that was the reason. There was one currency exchange in our terminal and it was automated. Conveniently, it was also out of order, lol. None of the stores accepted anything but rubles, except for duty free shops that did not sell water or any non-alcoholic beverages. All water fountains were also out of order (just installed?). Walking by a what looked like a “news stand”, I asked the sales woman where I could buy some water. Her response was “In a store”. Lol. That will probably stick with me forever, the words, the tone, etc. I still remember it as if it happened yesterday. My reply was “Thanks”. I then approached one of the cops (there were two of them walking by) and asked where I can get some water. He suggested I could drink from one of the taps in the washroom, but he personally wouldn’t recommend doing so. Funny enough, he said it in the most polite way possible, seriously. I replied that even if he did recommend it, I wouldn’t do so. He laughed. I have no idea why, but I remember being really thirsty. We found a shop that accepted USD before we got out and bought a couple of cans of Sprite for $3 a piece (they didn’t have water). Up until today, those were the most expensive cans of pop I have ever purchased. It’s funny that I have these memories from the airport upon arrival.

Anyway, that was a bit of derailing, which, I guess, still fits into the general Russian discussion. And I thought it would be fun to share.
 

KipPotapych

Active Member
A few more details emerged over the past couple of days about the Crocus attack. First, Reuters reported that Iran had also warned Russia about the planned attack by the ISIS-K in the country. According to the article, the Iranians obtained the intel via interrogation of the suspects involved in the recent terrorist attack in Iran itself. Another source, the article reports, revealed that the warming came with no specifics or timeline, but that (some of) the perpetrators may had already entered the country.


Today, another article at Washington Post, reported that according to their sources, the US had warned the Russians that the potential target of the attack was, in fact, the Crocus Hall. Russians, nonetheless, insist that the warnings were very general. Americans reportedly warned their Russian counterparts one day before the public warning. Naryshkin said that the American intelligences services shared (very general) info with the FSB. According to the article, one of the employees of the Crocus said in the interview to some Russian outlet that the workers have been warned, provided instructions on what to do in case of a terrorist attack; as well the security was significantly increased, etc.


Naryshkin also stated that there were measures put in place trying to prevent the attack. It also took Russians (Putin in particular) 13 or so days to publicly dismiss the warnings as rubbish. I would think since the warning was for the threat that was imminent (48 hours, according to the official public warning by the US), the Russians gave it another 10 days (which lines up quite well, being round and “simple”) and, given that nothing had happened, perhaps they couldn’t confirm the intel either, etc, went on openly dismissing the warnings and the attack occurring three days after that.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Some interesting news. Reportedly Russia is resuming production of the Citroen C5 Aircross in Kaluga. How this is possible is unclear. Perhaps it's an unlicensed copy, perhaps Russia got some sort of deal with France. The article says "Eastern partners will source the parts" suggesting that maybe Russia is going to get components through China or someone else. But that can't be impossible to shut down. In general Russian automotive production is the on mend, though a long way from peak output levels.


One of Russia's biggest problems right now is civilian airliners. Modern day Russia does produce them but there are some caveats. Russia has domestic production for the SSJ-100, the most successful post-Soviet airliners in the entire FSU space. However it was an international project all along, together with the French. Russia can produce the Tu-214 mostly without foreign components, but production is extremely slow. Same for the Il-96. Other projects are in limbo due to engine difficulties. Rostech keeps announcing Napoleonic plans of large scale production of SSJ-NEW, MS-21s, Tu-214s, and others, but the delivery timetables keeping shifting to the right. I'm reasonably certain that on a long enough timeline these issues will be overcome. In particular we are likely to see some increased Tu-214 production, though how much is open for debate. The SSJ-NEW is likely to go ahead in some form, unless the PD-8 engines turns into a major problem. Even the MS-21 is likely to proceed, just with lower characteristics then initially planned, and much later.


In the effort of ramping up Tu-214 production, Russia has developed a new machine for making tires for the type.


Russia has pulled a Tu-204 from storage and returned it to service. A total of nearly 100 Tu-204/214s were built, and quite a few aren't currently flying. Restoring them to service isn't the worst idea.


The first new built Il-114 regional airliner flew. The project hails from the '90s, an updated version of it is being prepared to restart production. A rebuilt airframe from the '90s was used for testing before now. However it's been held up by the new TV7-117 engines, the same that are holding up the Mi-38 helo, and Il-112 military transport. The engines are now allegedly good to go, but doubts remain.


Assembly of the first TVRS-44 regional airliner (smaller than the Il-114) is being assembled now. It's supposed to use a weaker version of the same engine as the Il-114.


Kolyma airlines have received two Mi-38-4s for civilian air service. These two helicopters were originally built for the Special Air Squadron Russia, which does VIP transport for Russian higher ups. It's likely the Mi-38 was deemed not ready for this highly visible role. So far 4 prototypes and 9 serial Mi-38s have been built, but production has been halted since 2021.

 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
The SSJ-NEW is likely to go ahead in some form, unless the PD-8 engines turns into a major problem.
PD family series of Turbofan from PD-8, PD-14 and PD-30 development really in my opinion the corner stone for Russian Civilian Aerospace industry. This series of engine that can bring Russia as serious contender for Western engines alternative in market. After all their current PS-90 still basically Soviet design engine that should has been replace by those PD series engine.

PD series Turbofan can be the make or break on Russia future as civilian aerospace player.
 

Fredled

Active Member
KipPotapych said:
Last thing I will say on the venue and the size of the event. I just looked at the concert schedule in Moscow (obviously on a Russian site) and the first two I saw were at the CSKA Arena and Megasport, both of which are at least twice as big and both concerts are happening on April 20 simultaneously.
Kip, I didn't make extensive research as you did. In my reply I intended to counter your claim that this was a minor event. It was not a minor event even if there are larger venues in Moscow.
You are free to disagree on the relative size of the event and on the other circumstances.

About Ukrinform, as I said, I didn't post any article from Ukrinform on this topic. I quote Ukrinform only on the Ukrainian topic.

And, no, it's not only garbage. Of course there is a lot of propaganda there, but you sort it out quickly.
If I quote Ukrinform so often, it's because I find there all the news related to ukraine instantly and in full details. other western media will just copy the same news in their articles

It's an official website whith a lot of informations. Much more informations than Russian sources, wich tend to talk about the Special Military Operation as something going on according to plan and that it will be over soon. Russian media just want to show that the situation is normal. That it;s just Zelensky refusing peace talks and attack innocent Russian soldiers who came to liberate Russians from the nazy.

Lavrov just reiterated that withdrawing troops from Ukraine was out of the question. That we have to adapt the peace talks to the new realities. So, what can you expect from them? Not a single evolution in two years.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Some interesting footage of recent bi-lateral exercises between Russia and Tadjikistan. The unit involved from Russia's side is the 201st Military Base (roughly a Motor-Rifles Division with some additional assets). Aside from the appearance of FPV drones, the exercises look like a typical pre-war stuff. What's interesting is that we have clean looking T-72B3 mod'22 or 23 (can't make out the sightbox but the era-patter is post invasion for sure), BTR-82A and at least one AT, Linza MEDEVAC MRAP, and other newer vehicles in quantities. They're mostly painted in the typical desert colors that the 201st MilBase uses and generally they do lineup with kit the unit had pre-war to some extent, and with some additions. In other words, despite sending T-55s and T-62s to war, a rear unit (whose participation in the war hasn't even been confirmed) has plenty of newer kit. Now it's possible they pulled some stuff aside for just the large-scale exercises, but in general it does raise eyebrows, at least for me. It's also possible that Russia's situation with kit now (as opposed to last year) is better then I've been led to believe, and more vehicles are available. BTR-82As in particular can be produced at over 500 vehicles per year, and don't see action very often in this war due to terrain being poorly suited for wheeled vehicles. We have seen Russian units riding BTR-70s but only once near Kupyansk last September. I don't believe we've seen them since.

A typically very reliable and meticulous blogger Altyn73 recently did a major roundup post on Russian ground forces, and in it he talks about production increases including apparently a resumption of towed Msta-B production (with a source showing the factory work), something I completely missed. He also talks about continued production of the BMD-4M, something I haven't observed (their pre-war production was 2 btln sets per year, given the scale of this war it's possible we just haven't noticed this small trickle), and mentions 2 batches of BMP-3s per month (I've tracked roughly 1 per month based on news articles but my searches aren't exhaustive). This leads me to suspect that production may be greater then I have estimated up until now. Ultimately time will tell if 2023 was the low point of availability of kit, and if Russia is now on the upswing.

 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

The language is quite interesting. Transferring under temporary management. Commercially this is similar with Western Freeze Russian financial assets in their Banks and FI. As West mostly so far freeze Russian assets, then Russia doing transfer assets under temporary management.

I'm betting if West then confiscated Russian assets in their Banks and FI, Russia will then move from temporary management caretaker to outright ownership take over. Typical tit for tat response. Some then later on I'm betting will be distribute to Oligarchs that lossing Assets in West.
 

KipPotapych

Active Member
^ They have done that before. Can’t provide any examples at the moment. Perhaps Danone? Was put under “temporary management” and then removed from such list followed by the sale of the assets, if memory serves me right. I have no doubt Russia has plenty of foreign assets to play with and confiscate if it comes to that. Medvedev said straight up that they will change the law and will confiscate assets of the private investors from the US if the Americans were to proceed with confiscation of the Russian assets.


Note that Russia, just like the EU and Britain, does not currently have legal means to confiscate any foreign funds, whether sovereign or private.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Note that Russia, just like the EU and Britain, does not currently have legal means to confiscate any foreign funds, whether sovereign or private.
They are not conducting direct war to each other. Thus their assets doesn't belong to belligerence nation category. This tit for tat freezing, transfer and confiscation is clearly political market disruption. Any market disruption that too much influence by Politics is never been good for each market credibilities.
 

Redshift

Active Member

The language is quite interesting. Transferring under temporary management. Commercially this is similar with Western Freeze Russian financial assets in their Banks and FI. As West mostly so far freeze Russian assets, then Russia doing transfer assets under temporary management.

I'm betting if West then confiscated Russian assets in their Banks and FI, Russia will then move from temporary management caretaker to outright ownership take over. Typical tit for tat response. Some then later on I'm betting will be distribute to Oligarchs that lossing Assets in West.
I doubt that anyone in "the West" cares what Putin does with any "western" assets still operating in Russia.

Once more "the West" is not a single political entity, The idea that the USA cares anything at all for Italian subsidiaries in Russia is laughable.

This is all entirely for local consumption and is utterly interesting outside of Russia.

Most of Russia's assets were given/stolen to/by the oligarchs so hardly surprising if most of these don't end up in Putin's personal pockets and the rest given to the currently in favour oligarchs.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Once more "the West" is not a single political entity, The idea that the USA cares anything at all for Italian subsidiaries in Russia is laughable.
West is not single entity, however which political international position against Russia, increasingly dominate by US. Denied that is also laughable. Russian doing Tit for Tat game with any Western nations that involves with freezing and confiscating Russia assets (State and Private). That's the reality and nothing related only to US, denied that also laughable.

Market credibilities is not something that Politicians on either side should try to mendling. Confiscation on any non belligerence nations (ie direct war with each other), is not going to benefit any of those market credibilities. Nothing in here talk on morality or politics. Just simple market credibilities.

For one thing those who has assets in Russia cares on the condition on their assets. So talking no one in West care, clearly not talking on those who have investment and assets in Russia. Otherwise why EU call complain on Russian moves on temporary transfer Management of Western companies subsidiaries.

 
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Redshift

Active Member
West is not single entity, however which political international position against Russia, increasingly dominate by US. Denied that is also laughable. Russian doing Tit for Tat game with any Western nations that involves with freezing and confiscating Russia assets (State and Private). That's the reality and nothing related only to US, denied that also laughable.

Market credibilities is not something that Politicians on either side should try to mendling. Confiscation on any non belligerence nations (ie direct war with each other), is not going to benefit any of those market credibilities. Nothing in here talk on morality or politics. Just simple market credibilities.

For one thing those who has assets in Russia cares on the condition on their assets. So talking no one in West care, clearly not talking on those who have investment and assets in Russia. Otherwise why EU call complain on Russian moves on temporary transfer Management of Western companies subsidiaries.

I honestly don't think that you understand the "west" at all.

Of course statements are issued about Russian policy but nobody cares the way that you think they do.
West is not single entity, however which political international position against Russia, increasingly dominate by US. Denied that is also laughable. Russian doing Tit for Tat game with any Western nations that involves with freezing and confiscating Russia assets (State and Private). That's the reality and nothing related only to US, denied that also laughable.

Market credibilities is not something that Politicians on either side should try to mendling. Confiscation on any non belligerence nations (ie direct war with each other), is not going to benefit any of those market credibilities. Nothing in here talk on morality or politics. Just simple market credibilities.

For one thing those who has assets in Russia cares on the condition on their assets. So talking no one in West care, clearly not talking on those who have investment and assets in Russia. Otherwise why EU call complain on Russian moves on temporary transfer Management of Western companies subsidiaries.

If you say so, then it must be right. Pardon me for living in the West for just not understanding what we think and do as well as you do.

You are right the control of Italian subsidiaries in Russia is headline news over here, all of our politicians are talking about it, I believe that we might just release all Russian assets and drop all sanctions because of it.

Thanks for your correction of my incorrect thoughts.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
honestly don't think that you understand the "west" at all.

Of course statements are issued about Russian policy but nobody cares the way that you think they do.
Thank God that people that matter in Western Market does not shares your thought. Otherwise Western Market are doom.


Pardon me for living in the West for just not understanding what we think and do as well as you do.
Ahh yes you clearly as usual talking other way around. The talk between me and Kip is about Western and Russian Market and confiscation assets. Seems you are always the one that jumping and come out with Western morality superiority.

Then again nothing surprising on your way of thinking. Even when EU clearly cares about Western Assets in Russia, and you are avoiding that issue as you say nobody in West cares.
 

Redshift

Active Member
Thank God that people that matter in Western Market does not shares your thought. Otherwise Western Market are doom.




Ahh yes you clearly as usual talking other way around. The talk between me and Kip is about Western and Russian Market and confiscation assets. Seems you are always the one that jumping and come out with Western morality superiority.

Then again nothing surprising on your way of thinking. Even when EU clearly cares about Western Assets in Russia, and you are avoiding that issue as you say nobody in West cares.
I can only apologise for having a different opinion to yours about my own country.

You are as always correct in everything that you say.

And thank you again for pointing out my flaws, I will immediately enroll to a re-education centre so that this sort of thing cannot happen again.
 
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