Russia - General Discussion.

[Atomic Warrior]

This is messy. Russia currently has a shrinking population due to low birth rates and high mortality. Russian population could have shrank by 600k in the past ~2 years all by itself with nobody leaving. And of course many people have left the country. Hundreds of thousands is probably right in my opinion. Russia is currently ramping up production of many defense goods and having to do some import-replacement manufacturing. Shortages of skilled workers in significant industries are to be expected, and low overall unemployment makes sense. How much of it is due to people being in uniform, how much due to population leaving, and how much due to general poor demographics is unclear but I suspect all 3 are significant contributing factors.



This clarifies it but doesn't support your assertion. Nizhniy Novgorod is a city of 1.2 million. He quotes it as having an unemployment rate of 4.7% (1.8% higher then the 2.9% national rate cited above). If both figures are accurate it actually has unusually high unemployment. You'll notice they're offering salaries of 250k roubles per month. Rosstat has the average salaries in Moscow at 110k roubles. In Nizhegorodskaya region it's 48k. So they're offering 5 times the regional average salary in posters in a city of 1.2 million people. Nizhniy Novgorod certainly isn't the equivalent of San Francisco (center of the Bay Area, one of the most expensive cities in the world, massive tech industries based in and around the city) like the video says. It most certainly is not Martha's Vineyard as you are claiming. That assertion is ridiculous.

Зарплата в России в 2023 году: средние значения по регионам и городам

Разница между доходами жителей страны всегда была важной темой для обсуждения. Какова средняя зарплата в России в 2023 году по городам и регионам и в какой отрасли лучше работать, рассказывает "КП"

www.kp.ru

Средняя зарплата в России в 2024 году: данные Росстата по годам и регионам

Официальные данные Росстата по средней зарплате в 2024 году - по месяцам, по кварталам. Описание методики расчета средней заработной платы.

gogov.ru

Also thank you for the sources you found clarifying my assertion. Doesn't entirly dismiss my assertion but shows I was working on not entirly correct facts about the situation at hand. I will try and do better or more research before the next time I post.

 

[Feanor]

Also thank you for the sources you found clarifying my assertion. Doesn't entirly dismiss my assertion but shows I was working on not entirly correct facts about the situation at hand. I will try and do better or more research before the next time I post.

One final piece of thought, as I ruminated on this. Russia has extraordinary levels of income inequality, and the salaries I quoted for you I believe are means, i.e. arithmetic averages. Rosstat loves using them because they're bigger. They're inflated by the top 10% making substantially more money, and top 1% being inappropriately rich for the country and region they are in. I believe median salaries are more to the point. While I don't have time to dig up the source, I do recall reading someone quoting Rosstat median salaries for Moscow as ~50k roubles. I.e. under half that of the average salary. While Moscow probably has substantially more income inequality then Nizhni Novgorod, I suspect the median salary for the region is quite a bit less then the rather decent 48k. Generally in Russia a family of two working adults making 96k household income living in the regions (i.e. not Moscow or St. Petersburg) is doing pretty well. They can afford a family car, and probably nice vacation once a year. They're not likely to be the target demographic for this poster. But again, city of 1.2 million. Personally I don't think this is telling, and I would expect recruitment posters for military service to be up in every major city in Russia including Moscow and St. Petersburg. I think what will tell us the reality of whether Russia is desperate for manpower or not will be whether Russia does a second wave of mobilization after Putin is "re-elected".

 

[Atomic Warrior]

One final piece of thought, as I ruminated on this. Russia has extraordinary levels of income inequality, and the salaries I quoted for you I believe are means, i.e. arithmetic averages. Rosstat loves using them because they're bigger. They're inflated by the top 10% making substantially more money, and top 1% being inappropriately rich for the country and region they are in. I believe median salaries are more to the point. While I don't have time to dig up the source, I do recall reading someone quoting Rosstat median salaries for Moscow as ~50k roubles. I.e. under half that of the average salary. While Moscow probably has substantially more income inequality then Nizhni Novgorod, I suspect the median salary for the region is quite a bit less then the rather decent 48k. Generally in Russia a family of two working adults making 96k household income living in the regions (i.e. not Moscow or St. Petersburg) is doing pretty well. They can afford a family car, and probably nice vacation once a year. They're not likely to be the target demographic for this poster. But again, city of 1.2 million. Personally I don't think this is telling, and I would expect recruitment posters for military service to be up in every major city in Russia including Moscow and St. Petersburg. I think what will tell us the reality of whether Russia is desperate for manpower or not will be whether Russia does a second wave of mobilization after Putin is "re-elected".

Wow well... you have certainly given me a lot to pounder on and research. I suppose you are correct flyers would be put up in every city. Also interesting on how Rosstat evaluates median income in Russia. Again thank you.

 

[Atomic Warrior]

I think what will tell us the reality of whether Russia is desperate for manpower or not will be whether Russia does a second wave of mobilization after Putin is "re-elected".

Yes. Well I'm sure no matter how it goes the Russian people themselves will not have much say over it weather it be over their presidential election or a second mobilization saddly. But it will be interesting to see if they (Putin/Russian Gov.) can even mustard a second mobilization in the near future...

 

[Feanor]

Yes. Well I'm sure no matter how it goes the Russian people themselves will not have much say over it weather it be over their presidential election or a second mobilization saddly. But it will be interesting to see if they (Putin/Russian Gov.) can even mustard a second mobilization in the near future...

Undoubtedly if it happens it will be an attempt to ketchup to the demands of the war. Something nobody in Russia will relish. Mayo this can be avoided. It will depend on what the condiments at the front are like. Ok I'll stop now.

 

[KipPotapych]

This is messy. Russia currently has a shrinking population due to low birth rates and high mortality. Russian population could have shrank by 600k in the past ~2 years all by itself with nobody leaving. And of course many people have left the country. Hundreds of thousands is probably right in my opinion. Russia is currently ramping up production of many defense goods and having to do some import-replacement manufacturing. Shortages of skilled workers in significant industries are to be expected, and low overall unemployment makes sense. How much of it is due to people being in uniform, how much due to population leaving, and how much due to general poor demographics is unclear but I suspect all 3 are significant contributing factors.

This basically sums it up, in my opinion. However, add 1.2 million Ukrainian refugees and 2.8 million border crossings from Ukraine to Russia since Feb 2022 and it adds even more mess to the numbers that is not very easy to figure out.

Source for the numbers of refugees and border crossings:

Situation Ukraine Refugee Situation

data.unhcr.org

Follow up on my comment:

Is Russia Running out of soldiers?

Connect with me on Twitter:@ryanmcbethWatch my long form videos:https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLt670_P7pOGmLWZG78JlM-rG2ZrpPziOyJoin the conversation:htt...

youtube.com

My best suggestion in this regard is not to watch/listen to some random person on youtube/internet claiming things that he/she may or may not know about (in this case not is more likely). Note that the unemployment rate he provided for the region is from 2020, 2 years before the invasion. And overall, the video is about nothing, really, in my opinion; clickbait, perhaps, but nothing more.

 

[Atomic Warrior]

My best suggestion in this regard is not to watch/listen to some random person on youtube/internet claiming things that he/she may or may not know about (in this case not is more likely). Note that the unemployment rate he provided for the region is from 2020, 2 years before the invasion. And overall, the video is about nothing, really, in my opinion; clickbait, perhaps, but nothing more.

Yes I suppose your right. Again I'll remember to do more research before posting commentary. I recalled somthing (imo at the time) potentially useful to the topic at hand. I'm sorry it was not useful or pan out. I learn from my mistakes and readily or capable of adminting I was wrong in my assertion or comments.

Edit:
I don't normally use YouYube as a source nor get my information from YouTube if at all, only/mostly use it for recreational purposes. Just happened to recall listening & reading somthing from their I thought may have been of use to the topic. But as usually with social media was a total bluster. Should have known better.

 

[Fredled]

often, if not always, when someone in Russia runs against Putin, they are presumed to be a “Kremlin project” in order to provide a sense of competition and this case wasn’t an exception:

Nobody believes that fair elections can be held in Russia. So when there is a candidate other than Putin, it looks suspicious.
Dunstova was a true candidate because she spoke against the war, wanted to set Navalny free and even paying compensation to Ukraine. Three objects of treason against the State. It was not possible for Putin to let someone talk like this publicly during an election campaign. So she was barred. If she insists she will be jailed.

I don't think the Kremlin picks fake candidates. Yet they choose who can run and who can't as candidates show up spontaneously. If someone run for the sake of fame or amusement, they let him. Not if his or her goal is to be president instead of the President.

Almost two years after the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, half of the 22 automobile plants (including Motorinvest, launched in the fall of 2022) are still idle.

Not only half of them are still idle, but the other half is working overtime for the military.
At least half of the total private (understand not military) Russian industry (all industries, not only auto) is producing weapons, ammunitions or other military related items.
As a result, Russians import even more than before, notably from China. (Xi enjoys)

Russia also lost a big number of specialised worker, engineers and programmers who fled Russia, either because of the mobilisation or because they lost their job.

Factory managers may have been the first to leave. Russians are remarkably unable to properly run a factory in a commercial, profitable manner. They might be very competent technically, they are pathetic when it comes to upgrading technology and offering even minimal service to clients and advertise.
This is because corruption and favouritism is bringing people with soviet thinking, who think that a plant is profitable in itself and don't think that a plant manager and a CEO should actually work and know what they are doing.

Restarting a plant after being idle for half a year is not an easy task. Most of the workers are gone and have found a job somewhere else. Tools and buildings degrades quickly. It can cost $10 a month just to maintain the tool in functioning order. And there is a great chance that many of them have been looted and left unattended.

 

[Fredled]

This basically sums it up, in my opinion. However, add 1.2 million Ukrainian refugees and 2.8 million border crossings from Ukraine to Russia since Feb 2022 and it adds even more mess to the numbers that is not very easy to figure out.

The population transfer from Ukraine to Russia doesn;t compensate much for those who left because, like it or not, the occupied part of Ukraine (the liberated part according to Russians) is considered as Russia. So it's just a transfer from one region to another. And the DonBas remains underpopulated.
On one hand most of these people have lost the job they had in Ukraine, on the other hand, they are hired for the accelerated reconstruction of Mariupol.

 

[Larry_L]

There is a scandal going on in Moscow over a "Costume party" that has Vlad Solovyov ranting. Some of the rich and famous wearing expensive jewelry and little else paid a large entry fee to join in a hedonistic event that was raided by police on the second day. At least one person was arrested. The party was attended by many celebrities including Anastasia Ivleeva, Filipp Kirkorov, Lolita and Dima Bilan, as well as TV host and 2018 presidential candidate Ksenia Sobchak. Solovyov is tying this to the strike on the Novocherkassk with logic that only he can understand as if the revelers are a fifth column that somehow caused the ship to sink.

Russian Officials, Pro-War Activists Denounce Star-Studded ‘Naked Party’ - The Moscow Times

Russian officials and pro-war activists have slammed a star-studded “almost naked” party hosted by media personality Anastasia Ivleeva for going against the country’s conservative values.

www.themoscowtimes.com

'Almost naked' party staged by wealthy showbiz celebrities in Moscow

The 'debauched' gathering was likened to Sodom and Gomorrah by critics claiming the antics of the wealthy stars insulted those on the frontline in the Kremlin's illegal war against Ukraine.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[Feanor]

There is a scandal going on in Moscow over a "Costume party" that has Vlad Solovyov ranting. Some of the rich and famous wearing expensive jewelry and little else paid a large entry fee to join in a hedonistic event that was raided by police on the second day. At least one person was arrested. The party was attended by many celebrities including Anastasia Ivleeva, Filipp Kirkorov, Lolita and Dima Bilan, as well as TV host and 2018 presidential candidate Ksenia Sobchak. Solovyov is tying this to the strike on the Novocherkassk with logic that only he can understand as if the revelers are a fifth column that somehow caused the ship to sink.

Russian Officials, Pro-War Activists Denounce Star-Studded ‘Naked Party’ - The Moscow Times

Russian officials and pro-war activists have slammed a star-studded “almost naked” party hosted by media personality Anastasia Ivleeva for going against the country’s conservative values.

www.themoscowtimes.com

'Almost naked' party staged by wealthy showbiz celebrities in Moscow

The 'debauched' gathering was likened to Sodom and Gomorrah by critics claiming the antics of the wealthy stars insulted those on the frontline in the Kremlin's illegal war against Ukraine.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Moved to appropriate thread.

 

[Fredled]

This almost naked party is causing a scandal of unthinkable proportions.

Most of the top showbizz celebrities gathered at this party (entry fee $10K). This in itself is nothing new. But it happens in war time. And for the first time since the start of the Special Military Operation, it became visible that ordinary Russian feel the burden of the war: dead relatives, lower salaries (in non defence sectors), inflation and growing general discontent about the issue of the war.
That's what caused outrage at first. The scandal was vented when some people gathered in the street where the party was going on and shouted at the celebrities.

Then, police came. Then, Putin was informed. And when Putin is informed, things can be very bad.
It appeared that ir was not only a posh semi-nudist fetishist event, but a gay event. And as everybody knows, homosexuality doesn't exist in Russia. And if found, it should be cured medically. About that, they didn't evolved much since the USSR. Not only Putin, but ordinary Russians hate and fear homosexuality with a passion. It's the ultimate abomination.
Suddenly, they discovered that all these singers, actors, youtubers they loved so much were adepts of Sodom and Gohomora while until now, it was carefully concealed (thought anyone who has taken a look at them could have guessed that they were, but sometimes Russians are naïves).

Even worse: All these celebs were vocally pro-Putin. Good for them: He has decided to offer them to prove their sincerity by fighting in Storm Z bataillions in the DonBas.
Yeah, Sure, the Russians are going to win the war with such warriors. LOL. (thought I imagine, they will all dodge it at the end of the day).
Women who attended will pay a fine and be forced to make public apologies. All the events scheduled for these artists have been canceled.

I don't comment about this.
... I'm the only one who don't talk about this.

 

[Larry_L]

There are many Russians that have been without heat for extended periods in parts of Russia. In the Moscow area many residences were heated by a boiler at an ammunition plant that had a failure. Several people have been arrested "on suspicion of providing unsafe services" . In one estimate 25% of Moscow was without power for some period of time. I can only scratch my head and wonder?

Следком

⚡️Подмосковным СК в рамках уголовного дела об оказании услуг, не отвечающих требованиям безопасности жизни и здоровья потребителей, задержаны начальник котельной и генеральный директор ЗАО «Климовский специализированный патронный завод». Также возбуждено уголовное дело по факту превышения...

t.me

‘Total Disgrace’: Anger, Frustration as Mass Heating Failures Across Russia Leave Thousands in the Cold - The Moscow Times

PODOLSK, Moscow region – Residents across Russia affected by unprecedented winter heating outages in recent days have expressed their growing frustration and urged local authorities to restore heating in their homes.

www.themoscowtimes.com

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1742777893355442575

In Novosibirsk they talk about reliability increasing every year. The link is in Russian. Many residences, and the local hospital appear to be without power.

«С каждым годом надежность повышается»: новый глава Новосибирска оценил состояние теплосетей на левом берегу

Олег Клемешов отметил, что с начала отопительного сезона произошла только первая авария

ngs.ru

Quote; Google translated: "“Reliability increases every year”: the new head of Novosibirsk assessed the condition of heating networks on the left bank Oleg Klemeshov noted that only the first accident has occurred since the beginning of the heating season And about. Mayor of Novosibirsk Oleg Klemeshov today, January 11, assessed the condition of heating networks on the left bank after an emergency with a pipe on Parkhomenko. In a conversation with reporters, he noted that in 2019 the situation changed a lot - from that moment on, tens of kilometers of pipes, including main ones, were rebuilt. — This pipe has been in operation since 1974 and, judging by the condition of this pipe, the accident occurred due to corrosion. It is clear that we will thoroughly understand the reasons. But now the reliability of the heat supply system is increasing every year. As of today, it’s already January—the heating season has been going on for several months, and [until this moment] we have never had a serious incident, much less an accident,” says acting. O. Mayor of Novosibirsk."

An overview translated. Quote: "How Novosibirsk suffered a serious utility accident. Online chronicle of events and all comments The emergency occurred on the main heating network in the area of Parkhomenko Street 11 January 2024, 08:24 177 795 1101 comments On the night of January 11, a utility failure occurred in the Leninsky district of Novosibirsk: hundreds of houses on the left bank were left without heat. Everything that is known about what is happening is in our online chronicle. New ones below New at the top On this topic January 11, 2024, 18:00 “Soared from the evening”: darkness and icy captivity - a report from the scene of a large-scale accident that left thousands of people without heat in the cold 11 January 2024, 16:20 “Reliability increases every year”: the new head of Novosibirsk assessed the condition of heating networks on the left bank 11 January 2024, 15:05 Another "ring of hell". Why can half of Novosibirsk freeze because of one accident on the left bank? Explanation of the SGC 11 January 2024, 12:30 SGK published a video from the scene of a pipe break in Novosibirsk 11 January 2024, 12:22 A photograph has appeared of the possible location of a heating main breakthrough in Novosibirsk"

All the links can be found here.

Материалы автора Елизавета Шаталова | НГС.ру - новости Новосибирска

ngs.ru

 

[Ananda]

Russia And Iran Finalize 20-Year Deal That Will Change The Middle East Forever | OilPrice.com

Russia and Iran agreed on a new 20-year comprehensive cooperation deal, featuring significant agreements in defense and energy, with potential major implications for the Middle East's geopolitical balance

oilprice.com

Put it here, as more appropriate then the other thread. This deal seems also going to not also strategic co-op with Iran, but also continue effort by Russia to cement their status as biggest energy player In Caspian Sea.

This is also potentially can be seen as warning sign for Azerbaijan that continue shown more inclination toward Turkey or Kazakhstan that seems try to play both ways between Russia and US.

Either way this also increase Russian oil giants sources for Hydrocarbon. They still have untapped potential in Artic circle. The Western media put to much euphoria on small achievement from Ukrainian toward Russian Infrastructure. However whenever Ukrainian hit one, the Russia usually paid it back multiple times.

The talk of Russian industrial collaps, economic meltdown, distortion on Russian MIC, seems shown that many Western media think 'too high' of effectiveness of their embargoes. Market in meantime already see most effect of Russian embargoes by West already being absorb and adjusted by late 2022 to early 2023. As before I have posted, not much options left for Western can do on embargoes. Unless US want to open further frontiers with China and try to be tough with India.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Russia And Iran Finalize 20-Year Deal That Will Change The Middle East Forever | OilPrice.com

Russia and Iran agreed on a new 20-year comprehensive cooperation deal, featuring significant agreements in defense and energy, with potential major implications for the Middle East's geopolitical balance

oilprice.com

Put it here, as more appropriate then the other thread. This deal seems also going to not also strategic co-op with Iran, but also continue effort by Russia to cement their status as biggest energy player In Caspian Sea.

This is also potentially can be seen as warning sign for Azerbaijan that continue shown more inclination toward Turkey or Kazakhstan that seems try to play both ways between Russia and US.

Either way this also increase Russian oil giants sources for Hydrocarbon. They still have untapped potential in Artic circle. The Western media put to much euphoria on small achievement from Ukrainian toward Russian Infrastructure. However whenever Ukrainian hit one, the Russia usually paid it back multiple times.

The talk of Russian industrial collaps, economic meltdown, distortion on Russian MIC, seems shown that many Western media think 'too high' of effectiveness of their embargoes. Market in meantime already see most effect of Russian embargoes by West already being absorb and adjusted by late 2022 to early 2023. As before I have posted, not much options left for Western can do on embargoes. Unless US want to open further frontiers with China and try to be tough with India.

Thank you for sharing.

I think this is the most interesting part:
|"Selected IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] personnel will be trained on the latest Russian upgrades of several short- and long-range missiles - the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal, the Iskander M, the RS-26 Rubezh, the BrahMos3, and the Avangard - before the plan to manufacture them under licence in Iran begins, with the aim being to have 30 percent of them stay in Iran, with the rest being sent back to Russia,” he said. "|

But this is "according to the senior E.U. security sector source"
Is Russia really willing to not only sell its most advanced missiles to Iran, but also to give the full transfer of technology and even licence manufacturing?

 

[KipPotapych]

^ Yeah, I’d wait for another confirmation, at least on that part. It’s been a day and no one else so far reported about it, without citing the article above. Sounds made up, in my opinion, whether by the author or the “EU security sector source”.

 

[John Fedup]

^ Yeah, I’d wait for another confirmation, at least on that part. It’s been a day and no one else so far reported about it, without citing the article above. Sounds made up, in my opinion, whether by the author or the “EU security sector source”.

Have to agree, a transfer of this tech to a country soon to have nukes isn’t a great idea considering Iran’s religious leaders want to wipe out infidels. Perhaps Putin and his oligarchs are “special”.

 

[T.C.P]

Have to agree, a transfer of this tech to a country soon to have nukes isn’t a great idea considering Iran’s religious leaders want to wipe out infidels. Perhaps Putin and his oligarchs are “special”.

tech transfers to a geopolitcal ally is, but the question is to what extent. I would be highly suprised if they were willing to hand over the tech like Kinzal. But working together for next gen cruisemissiles and supersonic missiles is normal for Russia. They worked with India on Brahmos and Iran has proven their worth to Russia in this conflict.

 

[John Fedup]

tech transfers to a geopolitcal ally is, but the question is to what extent. I would be highly suprised if they were willing to hand over the tech like Kinzal. But working together for next gen cruisemissiles and supersonic missiles is normal for Russia. They worked with India on Brahmos and Iran has proven their worth to Russia in this conflict.

A big difference between India and Iran wrt reliable won’t bite you in the A$$ down the road. As for helping Russia in the Ukraine, absolutely beneficial for Russia. However Iran is making some coin and getting some decent technical transfers in return. A classic how close do you want to dance?

 

[T.C.P]

A big difference between India and Iran wrt reliable won’t bite you in the A$$ down the road. As for helping Russia in the Ukraine, absolutely beneficial for Russia. However Iran is making some coin and getting some decent technical transfers in return. A classic how close do you want to dance?

I dont see the Iranian regime as crazy as you seem to. Iran with Nukes is not any more a threat to Russia than Pakistan with Nukes or North Korea with nukes.

Iran is a theocracy, but they want Nukes to secure their regime, I doubt they will go nuking infidels the moment they get them. Iran is manythings, but it is not suicidal, if they use nukes, anywhere they know for sure that they will be nuked in return.

Unless Russia is giving away their absolute latest tech Kinzhals, or ICBM tech, I dont see how sharing tech with Iran will be harmful for them enought o negate the benefits.