Russia - General Discussion.

[Feanor]

It appears the DPRK has a golden opportunity. With Russia being desperate and them being able to provide something essential yet fairly simple, DPRK shells have started to arrive on the front line, following reports of increased rail traffic between the two countries. Depending on whom you believe there were either 300 or 1000 containers of cargo so far. Russia can definitely pay for this in cash. But they can also transfer technology. It remains to be seen whether any DPRK howitzers show up here. They can't be worse then D-1s from storage.

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Северокорейский пробник

США продолжают обвинять Северную Корею в поставках больших партий боеприпасов в России. Опираясь на спутниковые снимки, уверяют, что КНДР передает России 1000 контейнеров, в которых могут быть боеприпасы. Россия и КНДР никак официально не подтверждали заключения соглашения о поставках…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

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[Larry_L]

If we base on what's popular as base on preparing for anything, we can be sure US preparing their population for long Zombie land.

You and I must have been prepared in extremely different ways. I cannot even conceive of where you are coming from here. I cannot even tell if this was meant to be humorous.

 

[KipPotapych]

You and I must have been prepared in extremely different ways. I cannot even conceive of where you are coming from here. I cannot even tell if this was meant to be humorous.

I think the context was that the books and movies are used to brainwash and prepare the population of any given nation (and Russian in particular) for things to come. Hence, his humorous suggestion that the US population is being prepared for Zombie apocalypse via zombie movies.

 

[John Fedup]

I think the context was that the books and movies are used to brainwash and prepare the population of any given nation (and Russian in particular) for things to come. Hence, his humorous suggestion that the US population is being prepared for Zombie apocalypse via zombie movies.

If one looks at Trump’s poll numbers at this moment, apparently the Zombie apocalypse is rapidly approaching.

 

[seaspear]

It appears the DPRK has a golden opportunity. With Russia being desperate and them being able to provide something essential yet fairly simple, DPRK shells have started to arrive on the front line, following reports of increased rail traffic between the two countries. Depending on whom you believe there were either 300 or 1000 containers of cargo so far. Russia can definitely pay for this in cash. But they can also transfer technology. It remains to be seen whether any DPRK howitzers show up here. They can't be worse then D-1s from storage.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Северокорейский пробник

США продолжают обвинять Северную Корею в поставках больших партий боеприпасов в России. Опираясь на спутниковые снимки, уверяют, что КНДР передает России 1000 контейнеров, в которых могут быть боеприпасы. Россия и КНДР никак официально не подтверждали заключения соглашения о поставках…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

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vk.com

There has been speculation on the number of shells transferred to Russia from the D.P.R.K numbering over the million ,you might suppose South Korea might not mind this demilitarization

 

[John Fedup]

There has been speculation on the number of shells transferred to Russia from the D.P.R.K numbering over the million ,you might suppose South Korea might not mind this demilitarization

Would be interesting to know how old this inventory is and its quality. Dear leader would likely want to keep the new stuff.

 

[Feanor]

There has been speculation on the number of shells transferred to Russia from the D.P.R.K numbering over the million ,you might suppose South Korea might not mind this demilitarization

That's not how that works. Russian cash flowing into the DPRK to pay for artillery shells will help the DPRK. The RoK can't be happy about that.

 

[seaspear]

I have not read any sources how the armaments were paid for except for suggestions of technology transfers and more modern weaponry?

 

[Feanor]

I have not read any sources how the armaments were paid for except for suggestions of technology transfers and more modern weaponry?

Good question. We don't know how Russia is paying, but no matter how Russia is paying, this is a beneficial arrangement for the DPRK. It can't be good for the RoK. In my view a cash sale is the best case scenario where the DPRK just gets some cash. Imagine instead it's a transfer of loitering munition tech or missile tech or aerospace tech.

 

[ngatimozart]

Good question. We don't know how Russia is paying, but no matter how Russia is paying, this is a beneficial arrangement for the DPRK. It can't be good for the RoK. In my view a cash sale is the best case scenario where the DPRK just gets some cash. Imagine instead it's a transfer of loitering munition tech or missile tech or aerospace tech.

I think Kim Jong Un will be after technology rather than cash. He needs the technology more than the cash.

 

[swerve]

As in he personally, rather than North Korean society, of course. He wants better weapons: his people lack food.

 

[John Fedup]

I don’t how China and NK conduct business but I suspect China subsidizes NK to a certain extent. Perhaps this infusion of Russian cash will prompt China to demand some additional payments from Dear Leader.

 

[Feanor]

I think Kim Jong Un will be after technology rather than cash. He needs the technology more than the cash.

No reason it can't be a mix of the two. But yes, I suspect the same, there will be technology handed over to help pay for this.

As in he personally, rather than North Korean society, of course. He wants better weapons: his people lack food.

Depending on the technology in question one can argue that North Korean society also needs technology. Of course that's probably not the technology they're going to get here.

 

[ngatimozart]

I don’t how China and NK conduct business but I suspect China subsidizes NK to a certain extent. Perhaps this infusion of Russian cash will prompt China to demand some additional payments from Dear Leader.

Not necessarily because the CCP want to keep Kim onside. They want a strong North Korea between them and South Korea and the US. They see North Korea as a buffer zone. I suspect that the Russians would see North Korea as the same.

 

[Ananda]

Tankers newly sanctioned by US supplied Russian oil to India

Three oil tankers, newly sanctioned by Washington, regularly shipped Sokol crude from Russia's Far East to Indian Oil Corp , the country's top refiner, in recent months, according to shiptracking data from LSEG, Kpler and trade sources.

www.reuters.com

U.S. Sanctions U.A.E. Maritime Firms for Bypassing Russian Oil Price Cap | OilPrice.com

The U.S. has imposed sanctions on three U.A.E.-based maritime companies and three vessels for transporting Russian oil above the imposed $60 price cap.

oilprice.com

US now trying to sanctions the tankers that move Russian Oil. Basically fulfilling the Price Cap on sanctioning those who help Russian oil traded above USD 60 cap.

Questions will be is that matters? As those tankers still can work without Western insurers, Western ports, and Western routes. Basically those are tankers that seems already prepared themselves to work outside Western channels.

@Dead Money I'm moving the repply on Oil Price Cap topic in here, so not filling Ukraine War thread. Yes it is suppose to be additional sanctions and should work as add to previous ones. Will see the overall affects going to matter on overalls trade. I'm sure it is going to add more barriers, but will it matter to hold Russian Oil price within the cap?

So far it is not, as market mechanics more matter then political barriers. The overall sanctions cost Russians, but not in the scope that US and EU politicians bragging about when they set it in motion. That's the problem when politics try to work against market mechanics. They can hurt you back as much your opponents.

Sanctions only work if the whole or most of the market work in line. However this sanctions done to one of major supplier, on the finite products that everyone need. From beginning even OPEC say that no other suppliers can close the gap on Russian Hydrocarbons. Thus Market especially outside collective west decides not to follow West. This will make Western sanctions only hurt Russian trade, but not able to dictate Russian trade.

Russia Removes Gasoline Export Ban As Domestic Market Stabilizes | OilPrice.com

Russia has lifted its gasoline export implemented in mid-September, citing a supply surplus of some 2 million metric tons

oilprice.com

Few months ago, some Western pundits bragg that Price Cap work, as they see sharp drops on Russian refineries export. Well that's not due to Western sanctions, but because Russian aim to stabilize their domestic.

Is it related to Western policy? well I guess not directly. As Western sanctions hurt some part of Russian domestic, Russian then try to strengthen their own domestic stability as overall. Russian economy is hurting, but so does Euro Zone. This is I already shown market analysts link in the beginning of this war. Just like war in the ground, the trade war also already move to attrition war stage. Problem is for West, market outside collective west don't want to get involve. That's matter when the size of non collective west market is getting bigger. If this's done by West after cold war, the effect will be much different.

 

[Vivendi]

China has refused to invest in Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline and demanded more gas discounts, The South China Morning Post writes. China is unwilling to invest in the new pipeline, offering Russia to pay the multibillion-dollar construction bill in full and demanding discounts on Russian gas, The South China Morning Post reported, citing a source familiar with the situation in Moscow. China "can demand deep discounts," the source says. "In terms of construction, [Beijing] wants to make sure that they have no risks and no costs. Russia is the side that foots the entire bill," says the source.

Exclusive | China wielding ‘bargaining power’ with Russia over Power of Siberia 2 natural gas pipeline | South China Morning Post (scmp.com)

Times are tough in Russia. The problem with gas is that it cannot be easily transported like oil and needs pipeline infrastructure (unless you turn it into expensive, liquified gas and use specialized ships to transport it). China can and will squeeze their "no-limits, special friends" in Moscow hard, to get the best deal possible.