Russia - General Discussion.

[Feanor]

It appears the DPRK has a golden opportunity. With Russia being desperate and them being able to provide something essential yet fairly simple, DPRK shells have started to arrive on the front line, following reports of increased rail traffic between the two countries. Depending on whom you believe there were either 300 or 1000 containers of cargo so far. Russia can definitely pay for this in cash. But they can also transfer technology. It remains to be seen whether any DPRK howitzers show up here. They can't be worse then D-1s from storage.

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Северокорейский пробник

США продолжают обвинять Северную Корею в поставках больших партий боеприпасов в России. Опираясь на спутниковые снимки, уверяют, что КНДР передает России 1000 контейнеров, в которых могут быть боеприпасы. Россия и КНДР никак официально не подтверждали заключения соглашения о поставках…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

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[Larry_L]

If we base on what's popular as base on preparing for anything, we can be sure US preparing their population for long Zombie land.

You and I must have been prepared in extremely different ways. I cannot even conceive of where you are coming from here. I cannot even tell if this was meant to be humorous.

 

[KipPotapych]

You and I must have been prepared in extremely different ways. I cannot even conceive of where you are coming from here. I cannot even tell if this was meant to be humorous.

I think the context was that the books and movies are used to brainwash and prepare the population of any given nation (and Russian in particular) for things to come. Hence, his humorous suggestion that the US population is being prepared for Zombie apocalypse via zombie movies.

 

[John Fedup]

I think the context was that the books and movies are used to brainwash and prepare the population of any given nation (and Russian in particular) for things to come. Hence, his humorous suggestion that the US population is being prepared for Zombie apocalypse via zombie movies.

If one looks at Trump’s poll numbers at this moment, apparently the Zombie apocalypse is rapidly approaching.

 

[seaspear]

It appears the DPRK has a golden opportunity. With Russia being desperate and them being able to provide something essential yet fairly simple, DPRK shells have started to arrive on the front line, following reports of increased rail traffic between the two countries. Depending on whom you believe there were either 300 or 1000 containers of cargo so far. Russia can definitely pay for this in cash. But they can also transfer technology. It remains to be seen whether any DPRK howitzers show up here. They can't be worse then D-1s from storage.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Северокорейский пробник

США продолжают обвинять Северную Корею в поставках больших партий боеприпасов в России. Опираясь на спутниковые снимки, уверяют, что КНДР передает России 1000 контейнеров, в которых могут быть боеприпасы. Россия и КНДР никак официально не подтверждали заключения соглашения о поставках…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

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vk.com

There has been speculation on the number of shells transferred to Russia from the D.P.R.K numbering over the million ,you might suppose South Korea might not mind this demilitarization

 

[John Fedup]

There has been speculation on the number of shells transferred to Russia from the D.P.R.K numbering over the million ,you might suppose South Korea might not mind this demilitarization

Would be interesting to know how old this inventory is and its quality. Dear leader would likely want to keep the new stuff.

 

[Feanor]

There has been speculation on the number of shells transferred to Russia from the D.P.R.K numbering over the million ,you might suppose South Korea might not mind this demilitarization

That's not how that works. Russian cash flowing into the DPRK to pay for artillery shells will help the DPRK. The RoK can't be happy about that.

 

[seaspear]

I have not read any sources how the armaments were paid for except for suggestions of technology transfers and more modern weaponry?

 

[Feanor]

I have not read any sources how the armaments were paid for except for suggestions of technology transfers and more modern weaponry?

Good question. We don't know how Russia is paying, but no matter how Russia is paying, this is a beneficial arrangement for the DPRK. It can't be good for the RoK. In my view a cash sale is the best case scenario where the DPRK just gets some cash. Imagine instead it's a transfer of loitering munition tech or missile tech or aerospace tech.

 

[ngatimozart]

Good question. We don't know how Russia is paying, but no matter how Russia is paying, this is a beneficial arrangement for the DPRK. It can't be good for the RoK. In my view a cash sale is the best case scenario where the DPRK just gets some cash. Imagine instead it's a transfer of loitering munition tech or missile tech or aerospace tech.

I think Kim Jong Un will be after technology rather than cash. He needs the technology more than the cash.

 

[swerve]

As in he personally, rather than North Korean society, of course. He wants better weapons: his people lack food.

 

[John Fedup]

I don’t how China and NK conduct business but I suspect China subsidizes NK to a certain extent. Perhaps this infusion of Russian cash will prompt China to demand some additional payments from Dear Leader.

 

[Feanor]

I think Kim Jong Un will be after technology rather than cash. He needs the technology more than the cash.

No reason it can't be a mix of the two. But yes, I suspect the same, there will be technology handed over to help pay for this.

As in he personally, rather than North Korean society, of course. He wants better weapons: his people lack food.

Depending on the technology in question one can argue that North Korean society also needs technology. Of course that's probably not the technology they're going to get here.

 

[ngatimozart]

I don’t how China and NK conduct business but I suspect China subsidizes NK to a certain extent. Perhaps this infusion of Russian cash will prompt China to demand some additional payments from Dear Leader.

Not necessarily because the CCP want to keep Kim onside. They want a strong North Korea between them and South Korea and the US. They see North Korea as a buffer zone. I suspect that the Russians would see North Korea as the same.

 

[Ananda]

Tankers newly sanctioned by US supplied Russian oil to India

Three oil tankers, newly sanctioned by Washington, regularly shipped Sokol crude from Russia's Far East to Indian Oil Corp , the country's top refiner, in recent months, according to shiptracking data from LSEG, Kpler and trade sources.

www.reuters.com

U.S. Sanctions U.A.E. Maritime Firms for Bypassing Russian Oil Price Cap | OilPrice.com

The U.S. has imposed sanctions on three U.A.E.-based maritime companies and three vessels for transporting Russian oil above the imposed $60 price cap.

oilprice.com

US now trying to sanctions the tankers that move Russian Oil. Basically fulfilling the Price Cap on sanctioning those who help Russian oil traded above USD 60 cap.

Questions will be is that matters? As those tankers still can work without Western insurers, Western ports, and Western routes. Basically those are tankers that seems already prepared themselves to work outside Western channels.

@Dead Money I'm moving the repply on Oil Price Cap topic in here, so not filling Ukraine War thread. Yes it is suppose to be additional sanctions and should work as add to previous ones. Will see the overall affects going to matter on overalls trade. I'm sure it is going to add more barriers, but will it matter to hold Russian Oil price within the cap?

So far it is not, as market mechanics more matter then political barriers. The overall sanctions cost Russians, but not in the scope that US and EU politicians bragging about when they set it in motion. That's the problem when politics try to work against market mechanics. They can hurt you back as much your opponents.

Sanctions only work if the whole or most of the market work in line. However this sanctions done to one of major supplier, on the finite products that everyone need. From beginning even OPEC say that no other suppliers can close the gap on Russian Hydrocarbons. Thus Market especially outside collective west decides not to follow West. This will make Western sanctions only hurt Russian trade, but not able to dictate Russian trade.

Russia Removes Gasoline Export Ban As Domestic Market Stabilizes | OilPrice.com

Russia has lifted its gasoline export implemented in mid-September, citing a supply surplus of some 2 million metric tons

oilprice.com

Few months ago, some Western pundits bragg that Price Cap work, as they see sharp drops on Russian refineries export. Well that's not due to Western sanctions, but because Russian aim to stabilize their domestic.

Is it related to Western policy? well I guess not directly. As Western sanctions hurt some part of Russian domestic, Russian then try to strengthen their own domestic stability as overall. Russian economy is hurting, but so does Euro Zone. This is I already shown market analysts link in the beginning of this war. Just like war in the ground, the trade war also already move to attrition war stage. Problem is for West, market outside collective west don't want to get involve. That's matter when the size of non collective west market is getting bigger. If this's done by West after cold war, the effect will be much different.

 

[Vivendi]

China has refused to invest in Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline and demanded more gas discounts, The South China Morning Post writes. China is unwilling to invest in the new pipeline, offering Russia to pay the multibillion-dollar construction bill in full and demanding discounts on Russian gas, The South China Morning Post reported, citing a source familiar with the situation in Moscow. China "can demand deep discounts," the source says. "In terms of construction, [Beijing] wants to make sure that they have no risks and no costs. Russia is the side that foots the entire bill," says the source.

Exclusive | China wielding ‘bargaining power’ with Russia over Power of Siberia 2 natural gas pipeline | South China Morning Post (scmp.com)

Times are tough in Russia. The problem with gas is that it cannot be easily transported like oil and needs pipeline infrastructure (unless you turn it into expensive, liquified gas and use specialized ships to transport it). China can and will squeeze their "no-limits, special friends" in Moscow hard, to get the best deal possible.

 

[KipPotapych]

The recent article from Bloomberg talks about the Russian oil revenue. Here is a brief summary:

• The “byproduct” of the sanctions and price-cap in particular was the “reshaping of the financial architecture of the oil and maritime trade” that some experts believe to be irreversible even after the sanctions are eventually lifted. That was discussed here at length and in depth by Ananda, as well as myself.
• Iran has been doing this same thing for decades, but, of course, on a much smaller scale.
• This reshaping significantly increased the risk of an environmental catastrophe, but money still flows to Russia as it was before.
• Greek vessels move around 20% of the Russian oil, more than any other country but Russia itself.
• International Maritime Organization is calling for a crackdown on the shadow fleet due to a high risk of environmental incident, especially during ship-to-ship transfers.
• About 45% of all Russian oil was moved by this shadow fleet.
• In spite of the price-cap in place, Russian oil revenue almost doubled between April and October.
• Russia’s net oil revenue for the month of October was $11.3B, the highest since May 2022 and exceeded any month in the year before the invasion.
• Average price this year that India paid for the Russian oil is $72 per barrel.
• Most of the oil is purchased by China National Petroleum Corp, Lukoil, and India Oil Corp. However, the remaining entities were unknown before the war began. Some were registered a year before, some just prior to the invasion, some, I am assuming, post. At least some are affiliated with the RU oil giants. It looks to me that most, if not all, are associated with the Russian business, either oil or otherwise.
• Ship registration is all over the place. Some vessels are registered to different companies with the same address. Some, to the companies with addresses that do not actually exist. Some, actually receive ship classification services from a company based in Odessa, that said they do not believe such service is provided to the vessel in question, but stopped responding after the first inquiry.
• Insurance is likely subpar, provided by an unknown entity. Though it appears that at least some was purchased via Lloyd’s of London from the insurers in the market.
• All this mess is beyond the reach of the Western regulators.
• The Americans are looking into ways to increase the costs of selling/delivering Russian oil in order to dampen the profit.
• Curtailment of Russian oil flow will, consequently, lead to increase of fuel prices globally. This is just common sense, really. In my opinion, it is also common sense that no politician wants that to happen in an election year, and Biden is likely the first one in the list since the Americans are extremely sensitive to even slight upward fluctuations in gasoline prices.
• Most participants of the market believe that the latter point is going to hold true, so nothing will dramatically change.
• “[…]in the big picture Russia has moved most of its crude and product exports out of easy reach of G-7 sanctions,” one of the experts said.

How Russia Punched an $11 Billion Hole in the West’s Oil Sanctions

To add to the last point, any striking action is also unlikely due to the US refilling their strategic reserves, that are the lowest they have been in the past 40 years, at a rate of about 3M barrels per month.

The US is refilling strategic oil reserves as fast as it can amid lower prices, but there are physical limits, Energy Department official says

So basically everything that was discussed here, mostly by Ananda, for the past long while, now outlined by the article in Bloomberg, involving their own investigation, as well as others, and expert opinions. Here are a couple of graphics from the article:

The last graph clearly suggests that as long as there is dependence on oil, price-caps and sanctions do not matter to the largest producer countries. Or do not matter as much as some like to believe.

 

[KipPotapych]

I wasn’t sure what thread would be more suitable for this, so apologies if another thread would be a better choice.

I watched the Biden address today (before the vote), as well as the White House briefing later on. Biden stressed that if there is no support provided to Ukraine, then the price will be significantly higher when Putin attacks a NATO member and American troops fighting Russian troops; hence, Ukraine must be supported to beat the Russians. John Kirby reiterated his point when he was asked to clarify during the briefing. I have two concerns that I would like to address here:

1. Why are they (and many seem to be as well) convinced that Putin would attack NATO? Are there any indicators of that? Has there ever been any intel suggesting such actions should be expected from Putin or Russian Federation (stated this way so that there is no confusion with the Soviet Union)?
2. Since there is such a conviction, that Putin would go beyond Ukraine and attack a NATO state, then the implication is that there is no guarantee that being a member of NATO is a great deterrent to a state such as Russia and Putin in particular. This, in turn, suggests that Ukraine joining NATO would not provide for or guarantee its security. Thus, is it reasonable to push through with Ukraine becoming a member of NATO (to begin with and) still since it clearly aggravates the Russians to the highest degree possible and, now it is pretty obvious, not only made the entire continent (and consequently the world) less secure, but also led to the biggest war in Europe in nearly eight decades? In other words, while the intention as it was voiced was to increase the security and bring peace to the European continent, the result of these actions was completely the opposite and subsequent consequences into the foreseeable, and perhaps beyond, future remain very questionable to say the least.

For reference, Biden’s address:

The White House briefing (at about ten-minute mark):

WATCH LIVE: White House holds briefing with NSC spokesman Kirby as Ukraine funding deadline nears

I saw others making this same argument, including Mitt Romney, Lindsey Graham, and other (mostly) politicians. There is a great fallacy in their approach, however, because the way the proponents of this argument put it, the answers to the questions above are contradictory. You can’t have it both ways and that argument is extremely unconvincing. If there ever has been a real concern of Putin attacking a member of NATO then a) no one cared judging by the level of preparedness prior to the conflict (and currently) and b) Ukraine should had never been considered as an addition to the Alliance because it goes directly against the idea of contribution “to security in the Euro-Atlantic area”, as well as to security of the entire world. This, of course, is the direct implication of the suggestion that Putin/Russia would go on attacking a member state. Now it is also farly clear that the move to include Ukraine (and/or Georgia, for that matter) into the Alliance, even if we ignore Biden’s and others’ argument completely, was not very thoroughly thought through because, again, it clearly does not contribute to Euro-Atlantic security. In other words, it goes against the basic idea/principle of the Organization. In fact, it worked in the exact opposite way, which, I think, is clear now to most.

Yeah… I don’t know. I don’t know what the solution is here. Russia has to be dealt with and will have to be dealt with long after this conflict is over, with and after Putin. I don’t see how it can happen without acknowledging that Russia is actually capable of having legitimate security concerns and even interests. Of course, such recognition is not going to come any time soon because it would be seen as a defeat (and, unfortunately, would likely be gloriously presented as such in Russia). I also don’t know where that would leave Ukraine.

But back to what I started this post with. The argument of fighting Russian troops when they attack a NATO state is complete nonsense for the reasons explained above. This also shows to me that there is no current strategy on dealing with the Ukrainian crisis and definitely no strategy on dealing with Russia in general.

 

[Vivendi]

I wasn’t sure what thread would be more suitable for this, so apologies if another thread would be a better choice.

I watched the Biden address today (before the vote), as well as the White House briefing later on. Biden stressed that if there is no support provided to Ukraine, then the price will be significantly higher when Putin attacks a NATO member and American troops fighting Russian troops; hence, Ukraine must be supported to beat the Russians. John Kirby reiterated his point when he was asked to clarify during the briefing.

Things are changing, they are never static. What held true in the past may not hold in the future. I suggest you read this and then you get back to us: Europe Must Urgently Prepare to Deter Russia Without Large-Scale US Support | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)

 

[Vivendi]

Russia planned Islamophobic campaigns in Finland and Sweden to delay NATO membership, a leaked document show. The objective stated in the document was to increase friction between Turkey, and European and other NATO countries. The Finnish Security Intelligence Service (Supo) confirmed that it was aware of the Russian intelligence service's plans to incite demonstrations in Finland.

MOT: Russia planned Islamophobic campaigns in Finland, Sweden to delay Nato membership | Yle News | Yle

This is just another example of the malignant activities Russia is planning towards peaceful, democratic neighbors exercising their sovereign right to join whatever international organization they see fit.