Royal New Zealand Navy Discussions and Updates

[Todjaeger]

Depends if you want to repair the damage done to a peacekeeping force or build an integrated ANZAC force. Having an Australian shipyard that can repair and upgrade and provision our own ships is a non negotiable. Mogami all day.

A bit of a simplistic and IMO inaccurate take. Pretty much any yard of sufficient size and with an appropriately skilled workforce should be able to repair damaged RNZN vessels and/or carry out upgrades. The RNZN ANZAC-class frigates are a prime example of this having been built at Williamstown in Australia, but undergoing a very different upgrade path from the RAN vessels with the work being done in Victoria B.C. on the Canadian West Coast.

A potential advantage for Australia and New Zealand if the RNZN were to also acquire Mogami-class frigates to replace the ANZAC-class is that frigates of both nations might follow the same upgrade path and share/reduce the overall cost of upgrades by spreading the development costs across a larger number of vessels. However, this is making some assumptions which might not really be viable. As already mentioned, there might simply not be sufficient yard space and production capacity available for the RNZN to receive replacement frigates by the time they are really needed. Secondly, even if the RNZN were to also get Mogami-class frigates built to the same specs as those for the RAN, there is no guarantee that NZ will want to follow the same upgrade/modification path, and/or be willing to spend the same amount of coin when needed.

 

[SamB]

A bit of a simplistic and IMO inaccurate take. Pretty much any yard of sufficient size and with an appropriately skilled workforce should be able to repair damaged RNZN vessels and/or carry out upgrades. The RNZN ANZAC-class frigates are a prime example of this having been built at Williamstown in Australia, but undergoing a very different upgrade path from the RAN vessels with the work being done in Victoria B.C. on the Canadian West Coast.

A potential advantage for Australia and New Zealand if the RNZN were to also acquire Mogami-class frigates to replace the ANZAC-class is that frigates of both nations might follow the same upgrade path and share/reduce the overall cost of upgrades by spreading the development costs across a larger number of vessels. However, this is making some assumptions which might not really be viable. As already mentioned, there might simply not be sufficient yard space and production capacity available for the RNZN to receive replacement frigates by the time they are really needed. Secondly, even if the RNZN were to also get Mogami-class frigates built to the same specs as those for the RAN, there is no guarantee that NZ will want to follow the same upgrade/modification path, and/or be willing to spend the same amount of coin when needed.

The New Zealand Government will be mooching off of the ADFs superior fiscal position anyway. The training grounds/ranges and high end capability that the ADF is being extremely generous not only to New Zealand but the U.K. and America for no other reason than the Australian public accepts whole heartedly the responsibility of being a modern democratic nation. Announcing the purchase of 5 x mogami is the least NZ can do.

 

[Todjaeger]

The New Zealand Government will be mooching off of the ADFs superior fiscal position anyway. The training grounds/ranges and high end capability that the ADF is being extremely generous not only to New Zealand but the U.K. and America for no other reason than the Australian public accepts whole heartedly the responsibility of being a modern democratic nation. Announcing the purchase of 5 x mogami is the least NZ can do.

At this point I am honestly wondering whether or not you have read and understood what I and others have posted regarding SEA3000 and related issues.

Yes, New Zealand could notionally order five Mogami-class frigates, however getting even the lead ship built and delivered by the time the RNZN plans to retire the current frigate force would be problematic at best. If the RNZN keeps their ANZAC-class frigates in service until 2035, the frigates will have been in service for 35+ years, which is really longer than they were likely designed for AFAIK. The problem with getting replacement frigates, even just the lead ship, in service by 2035 is who NZ could get an order placed with and actually meet that kind of delivery date, especially if the selected design is the Mogami-class.

Australia signed the order earlier this year for the three Japanese-built Mogami-class frigates, with delivery of the first vessel planned for some time in 2029 and the other two coming at intervals afterwards. Japan might have (or be able to add) extra build capacity to accommodate NZ ordering ships, but there is no certainty that it would be feasible. After all, Japan also has to build upgraded Mogami-class frigates and other warships to replace JMSDF vessels which are or will be coming due for decommissioning. As @StevoJH mentioned the other day, Japan has something like 26 warships which they will need to replace and it looks like Japan already let Australia 'jump' the queue for three. It is quite possible that Japan has neither the interest or service life margin to also let NZ take JMSDF build slots.

As for NZ getting Australian-built Mogami-class frigates... I had covered some of the issues with NZ making use of Australian naval shipbuilding almost a year ago. The basic gist of the issue then as it remains now is timing. The Australian Marine Complex facility in Henderson is supposed to start building the Australian-built frigates starting in 2030, with delivery of the 8th and last example from Australian yards currently expected by 2040. Again, as it was then and still remains, I think that delivery schedule could easily prove to be overly optimistic. It also means that, even if Henderson could make the 2040 delivery, NZ would not have receive new frigates until 5+ years after the NZ Gov't planned to retire their ANZAC-class frigates. In fact, pretty much the only way the RNZN might be able to replace their current frigates with Australian-built Mogami-class frigates would be for AusGov to let NZ take frigate build slots intended for the RAN and for Australian build to start and run at tempo without issues. Given that Australia is already in a bit of a rush to get new frigates built to replace RAN ANZAC-class frigates, there really is not much spare capacity to accommodate any orders for NZ with deliveries by the time NZ would need them.

That also is not even getting into the issues the RNZN would encounter trying to get crews for five frigates. The junior ratings and possibly even junior officers could likely be recruited and trained, but the mid-level and senior ratings and officers would be a problem as these people take time to get trained and developed.

 

[StevoJH]

The New Zealand Government will be mooching off of the ADFs superior fiscal position anyway. The training grounds/ranges and high end capability that the ADF is being extremely generous not only to New Zealand but the U.K. and America for no other reason than the Australian public accepts whole heartedly the responsibility of being a modern democratic nation. Announcing the purchase of 5 x mogami is the least NZ can do.

It's not going to happen, at least not without WW3 breaking out. And at that point it would be too late.

Even if New Zealand decided to buy 5x FFM, where are they getting them from? Unless Japan can provide every 2nd or 3rd unit off their production line, they are highly unlikely to get anything prior to 2040. Remembering that Japan has already given up build slots to the RAN.

As stated before, Type 31 is likely available sooner if NZ gets a hurry on and orders before either the RN places another order or the production run shuts down.

 

[spoz]

So with 3 shipyards working on type in future what do think the alternative is for NZ ?Wouldn't be South Koreans US have them tired up their Replacement frigates. Poms shipyard made errors with first few Type 31 so they will be behind.

They did not make errors. As with EVERY first of class, some parts of the design proved unachievable for various reasons - and I’m not going to through them again, I did a couple of days ago on another thread - equipment is not as specified or bits of the design just don’t work. That is not making errors; it is doing shipbuilding. There are something like 7 million parts in a frigate - it is inevitable that some will not be as expected.

 

[SamB]

Double post

 

[SamB]

It's not going to happen, at least not without WW3 breaking out. And at that point it would be too late.

Even if New Zealand decided to buy 5x FFM, where are they getting them from? Unless Japan can provide every 2nd or 3rd unit off their production line, they are highly unlikely to get anything prior to 2040. Remembering that Japan has already given up build slots to the RAN.

As stated before, Type 31 is likely available sooner if NZ gets a hurry on and orders before either the RN places another order or the production run shuts down.

Randomisation can address systemic issues but that's not what I would deem "focused."

 

[Hawkeye69]

Your dreaming if you like NZ will buy 5x frigates of what ever class, we can’t crew what we have and unfortunately worldwide the military is no longer a career pathway the generations coming through want. 2x frigates yes and a couple of multi roles to replace Canterbury but the rest will be unmanned vessels.

 

[SamB]

Your dreaming if you like NZ will buy 5x frigates of what ever class, we can’t crew what we have and unfortunately worldwide the military is no longer a career pathway the generations coming through want. 2x frigates yes and a couple of multi roles to replace Canterbury but the rest will be unmanned vessels.

Are you aware that increasing lethality quote unquote or drones is just as ridiculous as a 5 frigate navy?

 

[SamB]

At this point I am honestly wondering whether or not you have read and understood what I and others have posted regarding SEA3000 and related issues.

Umm, yes.., read and.., I choose a different view.

Yes, New Zealand could notionally order five Mogami-class frigates, however getting even the lead ship built and delivered by the time the RNZN plans to retire the current frigate force would be problematic at best. If the RNZN keeps their ANZAC-class frigates in service until 2035, the frigates will have been in service for 35+ years, which is really longer than they were likely designed for AFAIK. The problem with getting replacement frigates, even just the lead ship, in service by 2035 is who NZ could get an order placed with and actually meet that kind of delivery date, especially if the selected design is the Mogami-class.

Australia signed the order earlier this year for the three Japanese-built Mogami-class frigates, with delivery of the first vessel planned for some time in 2029 and the other two coming at intervals afterwards. Japan might have (or be able to add) extra build capacity to accommodate NZ ordering ships, but there is no certainty that it would be feasible. After all, Japan also has to build upgraded Mogami-class frigates and other warships to replace JMSDF vessels which are or will be coming due for decommissioning. As @StevoJH mentioned the other day, Japan has something like 26 warships which they will need to replace and it looks like Japan already let Australia 'jump' the queue for three. It is quite possible that Japan has neither the interest or service life margin to also let NZ take JMSDF build slots.

As for NZ getting Australian-built Mogami-class frigates... I had covered some of the issues with NZ making use of Australian naval shipbuilding almost a year ago. The basic gist of the issue then as it remains now is timing. The Australian Marine Complex facility in Henderson is supposed to start building the Australian-built frigates starting in 2030, with delivery of the 8th and last example from Australian yards currently expected by 2040. Again, as it was then and still remains, I think that delivery schedule could easily prove to be overly optimistic. It also means that, even if Henderson could make the 2040 delivery, NZ would not have receive new frigates until 5+ years after the NZ Gov't planned to retire their ANZAC-class frigates. In fact, pretty much the only way the RNZN might be able to replace their current frigates with Australian-built Mogami-class frigates would be for AusGov to let NZ take frigate build slots intended for the RAN and for Australian build to start and run at tempo without issues. Given that Australia is already in a bit of a rush to get new frigates built to replace RAN ANZAC-class frigates, there really is not much spare capacity to accommodate any orders for NZ with deliveries by the time NZ would need them.

The bottlenecks you highlight are how defence procurements stall, a five-ship Mogami acquisition for the RNZN is completely possible if we stop looking at it through a business case lens. If treated as a strategic emergency, which I believe it is the math and timelines can work.

Japan is aggressively looking to secure regional exports to build up its defence industrial base. If NZ places an order yesterday, MHI can introduce a third parallel slipway or extend the new FFM production run by two years.

This 3 + 2 strategy could source the first 3 mogami from MHI inorder for NZ to hook onto the back end of SEA3000. This totally offsets the risks of an optimistic Henderson timeline offering a regional pool of 16 mogami. The scale from that supply chain bulk buying weapons systems and radar.

Japan would get to scale up its own production by one more slipway. Because Tokyo prioritises an open indo Pacific, they have a massive shift incentive to grant New Zealand's request.

That also is not even getting into the issues the RNZN would encounter trying to get crews for five frigates. The junior ratings and possibly even junior officers could likely be recruited and trained, but the mid-level and senior ratings and officers would be a problem as these people take time to get trained and developed.

Acquiring 5 x mogami isn't a part of a navy centric view of mine it's a part of a whole raft of capability assessments and acquisition including duel use Jet-Pilot conversion trainers and setting up to accept 2-3 x LSD/LHD and a link16 enabled Army an integrated focused force with increased lethality etc etc etc etc If the plan doesn't involve doubling NZDF personnel then tell the NZ government to quit talking a big game.

 

[Warhawk]

They did not make errors. As with EVERY first of class, some parts of the design proved unachievable for various reasons - and I’m not going to through them again, I did a couple of days ago on another thread - equipment is not as specified or bits of the design just don’t work. That is not making errors; it is doing shipbuilding. There are something like 7 million parts in a frigate - it is inevitable that some will not be as expected.

Assembly & Sequencing Mistakes: Babcock International revealed that the hull segments of the first two Type 31s were assembled out of sequence. This misstep in production sequencing complicated the later outfitting phases, requiring invasive rework and delaying progress.

 

[StevoJH]

Umm, yes.., read and.., I choose a different view.

I would love for you to elaborate on that.

Japan would get to scale up its own production by one more slipway. Because Tokyo prioritises an open indo Pacific, they have a massive shift incentive to grant New Zealand's request.

Sure they can, if New Zealand pays for it.

Japanese industry is scaled to the needs of the JMSDF, sure they can scale up but there is no assurance that MHI will get more work, and 5 ships isn't going to pay for that scale up.

This shipyard is not going to be getting bigger. MHI Nagasaki

 

[SamB]

I would love for you to elaborate on that.

Whatever set of capabilities that are purchased y'know not just for navy but army, and airforce as well as space l, cyber and now AI mind you. No one is saying it but everyone knows that the plan is to plead poverty and mooch off of the ADF. That's the plan.

My preference would be to acquire 3x Canadian AOPV wolf and tag onto to the back end of SEA3000 with an order for 5x mogami. I don't know why people keep defending a policy of mooching off the ADF The NZ government is going to have to learn to pay its way and lift its own weight.

Sure they can, if New Zealand pays for it.

Eventually we are all going to have to face up to it. The budget announcements are not matching up with the defence white papers.

Japanese industry is scaled to the needs of the JMSDF, sure they can scale up but there is no assurance that MHI will get more work, and 5 ships isn't going to pay for that scale up.

My view is Tokyo is scaling their defence industry to the needs of the Indo-Pacific. Besides that idea was in response to Todjaeger. It was an attempt at showing that it doesn't have to be T-31. Those Brits and naval shipbuilding the amount of stop, start, canceled programmes it's in their DNA to rip people off. Your a fool to think this time is going to be different.

This shipyard is not going to be getting bigger. MHI Nagasaki

Y'know what, Mr. Tokyo ain't the only place looking to construct mogami slipways.

 

[Milo]

RNZAF has been operating the T-6C Texan well enough, for long enough, so long in fact that it's created a capability gap.

To bridge this gap the Government should acquire a duel use LIFT (lead in Trainor) program.

This is not a request for a Multi billion dollar ACF. It's an investment in a trainer that doubles as a sovereign deterrent. It delivers immediate, credible options to counter basic regional threats.

The LIFT program amongst other things provides a visible response to grey zone Maritime threats with close in gun runs across the bow or intercept long ranged aircraft. Show them NSM/JSM AMRAAM/sidewinder.

A balanced RNZAF fleet structure of duel seat variants ensures Jet-Pilot conversion with a pair of single seaters on high readiness for sudden show of force.

At a CAPEX of NZD$1.5 billion and OPEX of NZD$15 million annually a LIFT program utilises existing frameworks and/or wishlists. It delivers an immediate deterrence without diverting critical funding from the wider government budget or current and future NZDF modernization priorities

If I interpret it correctly, the 2026/27 budget estimates 147 million in sustainment for 5000 flying hours for the RAAF Hawk 127 trainer so 15 million a year seems optimistic.

Defence-Portfolio-Budget-Statements-2026-27.pdf

 

[SamB]

From memory there were deferent force structures being played with before siding with a balanced force of 4x frigates, an ACF and 4x light infantry battalions and a company sized mechanised detachment and included force structures that were naval centric ie 6 frigates or 4 SSK.

Airforce centric ie F-4 rather than A-4 etc.

There were others but my reasoning is based off of those models.

We don't have an ACF and I'm not willing to lie on paper and engage in a fantasy fleet. With the incoming NGAD the idea of an NZ ACF would be better spent on making the jump to unmanned platforms.

But we don't have an ACF meaning that 5-6 frigates is the minimum and if 5 then there is a LIFT requirement. If 4 then an ACF is required (see previous paragraph).

 

[StevoJH]

New Zealand should be doing a lot of things that it isn't.

By the way, relative to Australia.
New Zealand population = 19% of Australia
New Zealand economy = 13% of Australia

New Zealand is much more densely populated then Australia, which should lead to significant infrastructure efficiencies with regards to road, rail, hospitals etc.

Does anyone know what % of GDP spend both countries have to a common standard? (NATO??) I know that the Australian Defence figures do not include some things that are included in the NATO figures, which makes the spend look smaller as a percentage of GDP compared to European countries and the US.

There is no point making up fantasy militaries based on what you *think* they should be doing. Maybe take the general talk to the NZDF thread, rather then the Navy thread. Saying that, Australia only has 5 regular infantry battalions now?

 

[SamB]

New Zealand should be doing a lot of things that it isn't.

By the way, relative to Australia.
New Zealand population = 19% of Australia
New Zealand economy = 13% of Australia

New Zealand is much more densely populated then Australia, which should lead to significant infrastructure efficiencies with regards to road, rail, hospitals etc.

Does anyone know what % of GDP spend both countries have to a common standard? (NATO??) I know that the Australian Defence figures do not include some things that are included in the NATO figures, which makes the spend look smaller as a percentage of GDP compared to European countries and the US.

All I know is that Australia is well on its way to wiping a AUD$trillion dollars worth of infrastructure deficit from 2020 to 2030 while in the same time New Zealand is well on its way to increasing its infrastructure deficit towards NZD$One trillion.

There is no point making up fantasy militaries based on what you *think* they should be doing. Maybe take the general talk to the NZDF thread, rather then the Navy thread. Saying that, Australia only has 5 regular infantry battalions now?

Yeah. I would love to hear more about how NZ mooching off the ADF is better in the general thread.

 

[Todjaeger]

Something which remains unaddressed is where and how NZ would be able tor realistically get Mogami-class frigates built and get at least the lead ship delivered for service by ~2035. Looking at the output from MHI yards which have been producing the FFM model, it seems to take about 34-35 months from a vessel being laid down to getting commissioned, and that is for existing yards with a skilled workforce for an active build programme.

In order for NZ to actually receive that first replacement frigate by 2035, it would likely need to be laid down some time in 2032. However, it appears that MHI yards building upgraded Mogami-class frigates for the RAN through ~2034 and the JMSDF has plans for a further 10 upgraded Mogami-class beyond the two currently under construction. The rest of the JMSDF order is to replace the Abukuma-class DE's and Asagiri-class DD's which entered Japanese service between the late 80's and early 90's.

Right now only yards in Japan are in a position to build the Mogami-class and it will be several years before an Australian yard could start production for the Australian order, never mind start on a hypothetical Kiwi order. There has been some talk about yards in Indonesia or India being able to engage in licensed production but as of right now there is nothing publicly available confirming that it will happen. Absent more concrete information, especially something like a timeframe for when production could start, expecting some new/expanded facility could establish an active Mogami-class production capability which could also meet NZ's needed delivery dates seems rather unrealistic.

 

[SamB]

Something which remains unaddressed is where and how NZ would be able tor realistically get Mogami-class frigates built and get at least the lead ship delivered for service by ~2035. Looking at the output from MHI yards which have been producing the FFM model, it seems to take about 34-35 months from a vessel being laid down to getting commissioned, and that is for existing yards with a skilled workforce for an active build programme.

In order for NZ to actually receive that first replacement frigate by 2035, it would likely need to be laid down some time in 2032. However, it appears that MHI yards building upgraded Mogami-class frigates for the RAN through ~2034 and the JMSDF has plans for a further 10 upgraded Mogami-class beyond the two currently under construction. The rest of the JMSDF order is to replace the Abukuma-class DE's and Asagiri-class DD's which entered Japanese service between the late 80's and early 90's.

Right now only yards in Japan are in a position to build the Mogami-class and it will be several years before an Australian yard could start production for the Australian order, never mind start on a hypothetical Kiwi order. There has been some talk about yards in Indonesia or India being able to engage in licensed production but as of right now there is nothing publicly available confirming that it will happen. Absent more concrete information, especially something like a timeframe for when production could start, expecting some new/expanded facility could establish an active Mogami-class production capability which could also meet NZ's needed delivery dates seems rather unrealistic.

And the alternative. The T-31..., will most definitely appear by 2035 when Te Mana and Te Kaha reach the end of its structural fatigue?

Let's assume that NZ orders a kiwi T-31. It won't be able to talk with RAN, won't have CEFAR, link 16 and the whole upgrade package wont be priced for sympathy.

In a shit fight between the worst of all possible worlds I choose mogami every time.

But as I say. The NZGOV will find a way to screw up the 2035 timeline ANZAC replacement. At which time it will be mogami by default. That's when the ADF is going to have to put the NZGov in check. Demand that they place an order for 5 x mogami or go find someone else to mooch off of.

 

[Nighthawk.NZ]

Let's assume that NZ orders a kiwi T-31. It won't be able to talk with RAN, won't have CEFAR, link 16 and the whole upgrade package wont be priced for sympathy.

How is that an argument?... our current ANZAC's don't have CEFAR and we work together just fine. People tend to forget that with the T-31 Arrowhead 140 program, the base price given is just the basic hull, no sensors or weapons etc as you get to choose what you want to add to it which obviously alters the cost. And as for Link16 it can be easily added to any vessel easily enough... including the Type 31