You seem to think that just increasing the numbers leads to a better NZDF, it does not in it self. There is a hole raft of things required to achieve significant inprovement and one of the least talked about is TIME. The time neaded to train people, then the time neaded for them to gain experience in the first level of their calling, then the time needed for promotion to the next level and the time needed to gain experence and knowlege at that level and so on etc. As an example it has been calculated that should the RNZAF whish to restart the ACF it would take 15 years for it to reach the required level of experties. the same applys to other forces, battalion comand structures don't appear over night. ships comand structures are the same. Numbers mean nothing if the structures, equipment and experience is not in place to except the increased numbers. To significantly increase the combat capability does not take weeks or months or even years, you are looking at a decade as a start point.
Throwing large numbers of personel at the problem does not fix the problem after 35years of cronnic underfunding, the problem requires years of hard work and political commitment and money, lots of money.
I trust NZDFs excellence. After years of neglect a sudden mountain of cash won't make allies trust NZDF capability. A reputation for excellence is what attracts high quality recruits and keeps allies willing to work with NZDF and that starts with the Prime Minister.
Money can buy marketing (telling people they're great). Money cannot buy competency (actually being great). DCP25 hopes to address this point with NZD$12 billion over four years aimed at lifting defence spending to 2% of GDP over eight years.
Over 70% of defence infrastructure has less than 20 years of useful life.
The New Zealand government has unveiled a long-term plan to modernise Defence Force infrastructure across the country in a bid to strengthen military resilience and create construction jobs.
www.defenceconnect.com.au
As a professional employer living in fragile and aged facilities directly affects morale. The Defence Estate Revitalisation program started under The Honorable Ron Marks ten years ago attempts to fix this, but it will take years more political commitment to move NZDF from underfunded levels to a combat capable status once again.
Building NZDFs reputation is not a maybe next term project it requires consistency across electoral cycles. 50.3% of New Zealanders are in favour of increased defence spending which provides political cover for long term spending. New Zealand is looking to deepen integration with the ADF to borrow their scale providing more cover.
The Five Eyes are really four eyes and a wink, according to a joke that derides New Zealand’s limited defence spending. Publication of the country’s 2025 Defence Capability Plan (DCP) may result in the saying ...
www.aspistrategist.org.au
The sinking of HMNZS Manawanui teaches how quickly reputation is damaged. It shows that with personal numbers consistent with a benign strategic environment, a single loss isn't just a massive financial blow; it's a massive hit to operational tempo and global standing that takes years to recover. Ultimately DCP25 is a 15 year road map built, as noted previously upon 10 years of wasted till next term projects.
Money buys time, but reputation only returns when NZDF consistently proves it is capable of imposing the collective will of New Zealand on an increasingly volatile Indo-Pacific.
(Please excuse my verbiage) The ANZAC project is a buy now pay later strategy for increasing NZDF capability by leaning into the planned ANZAC framework NZDF effectively borrows the reputation and operational umbrella from the ADF. Moving NZDF personal through the ADF towards plug and play capability buying the same radios, munitions and logistics removes the decades long learning curve of developing doctrine.
The risk of this shortcut to NZDF is becoming a subsidiary of the ADF. If NZDF rely to heavily on the ADF for brains and teeth will risk losing operational independence from Canberra if our interests ever deviate even slightly.
To rebuild the reputation of NZDF, new Zealand must provide value add - niche capability that the ADF doesn't have - rather than being a smaller version of the ADF.
Simply, put in an order for:
5x mogami <<<that is payback.
Some weapon carrying variants of Hawkie and increase C-130 and P-8 fleets to 8-12 and 6-8 respectively building on the ADFs own upgrade schedule <<< this is niche.
Another niche argument would be to carry Sea Ceptor over to a Kiwi Mogami which provides a specific layer of protection to joint task forces that doesn't mirror the ADF.
If NZDF only focuse on niche the risk is losing operational independence or lead our own operations. The goal is to be so integrated that each force can deploy interchangeable units moving beyond just buying the same kit and into sharing the same brain at an operational level.
This is not a maybe next term project.
