Royal New Zealand Air Force

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
The Swordfish system could be scaleable, like FITS, which has been installed on platforms from the P-3 down to CN-235, & was selected for the proposed A319 MPA.
As I understand it, the Airbus FITS and Saab's Swordfish system are quite different in nature. From what I have been able to gather based on information Saab has put out, the Swordfish system is a set of specific sensors, avionics and workstations to provide a broad range of MPA capabilities. One thing Saab has specifically stated is that the maritime surveillance radar used in the Swordfish system, is the same maritime surveillance radar used in at least the maritime surveillance-focused versions of the Saab Globaleye AEW&C aircraft.

OTOH the Airbus FITS is which is more about the systems architecture and how the sensors and workstations connect and communicate with each other. Examples of that cover the palletized workstations available for the USCG's HC-144A Ocean Sentry version of the CN-239MP Persuader, as well as the fact that Airbus MPA offerings utilizing FITS allow customers to select which sensors they want in their maritime patrol and surveillance aircraft.

Put another way, I believe that if Saab and Airbus partnered together to provide maritime patrol and surveillance aircraft, then the Saab selected sensors and workstations would be connected together using FITS.

At present I have not encountered anything to suggest that the Swordfish system currently offered by Saab is scalable either up or down in terms of including additional sensors, or excluding sensors already packaged, or even substitution of sensor models.
 

StereoGeek

New Member
Hey All.

Saab has offered only the G6000 to the NZDF, so all swordfish discussion here should only be for that platform.

Saab categorically states that the Swordfish in the configuration offered to the NZDF is 2/3 the per unit acquisition cost, and less than half the operating cost per hour, using the same rubric that Boeing has used in their operating costs projected to the NZDF. Actual figures are obviously commercially sensitive in an active process like this. So yes, the difference is substantial, especially spread over the life of the aircraft. They said that if the FASC budget remains the same, they will be able to supply 7 full-system configured Swordfish aircraft for the same price as 4 P8’s.

Yes the G6000 is most certainly capable of generating enough power to have confidence in future proofing. The G6000 was designed from the outset to be a Special Mission platform, hence it was designed with a high power generation ability. This is why the USAF and RAF chose it as the R1 Sentinel and E-11 ELINT platform.

The combination of this organic power generation as standard and Saab’s world-leading SWaP efficiency technology (Size, Power and Weight) is where the future proofing in power needs comes from. This is one of the main reasons Saab chose the G6000 as the platform after evaluating all available aircraft (aside from its full-speed and altitude spectrum efficiency wing design.) This is what they told me in the written brief they gave me via email when I asked them about it: “The Global 6000 aircraft comes with a high degree of redundancy as standard, with four variable frequency generators, an auxiliary power unit and a RAM air turbine generator. In the fully optioned configuration of the soon to be in-service Global-Eye, it will use only 70% of power the aircraft can generate as standard without further modification.”

That ‘fully-optioned’ configuration integrates the ERIEYE-ER M-AESA, The Seaspray 7500E AESA (*the multi-mode interleaving surface and air search radar in-service with the USCG that proved so good the US tried to block its export, forcing Leonardo, it’s manufacturer, to change a minor supplier. I was told that by an ex-Nimrod and Merlin pilot now working for Leonardo), FLIR Systems STAR SAFFIRE 380HD E0/IR, SIRIUS-NG ESM/ELINT/COMINT system, SATCOM, Link 11/16/22 Datalink, IDAS-NG Self Protection System w/ DIRCM, and an EW system system derived from the AREXIS Airborne Electronic Attack system designed for the Gripen NG. Given the Swordfish system lacks the ERIEYE-ER, that would mean even more power available. The only additions to the Swordfish system are the new CAE MAD Boom (which is 1/10th the weight and power requirements of the legacy P-3 systems) and General Dynamics Mission Systems Canada Multi-Status Acoustics System.

The Swordfish is most certainly not sold as a ‘one-off’ configuration of sensors and systems. That is describing the P8… The man-machine interface and data fusion system, with workstations derived from the Global Eye system, can integrate through its open-architecture whatever configuration the NZDF wants. But obviously, the currently offered system is already ‘pre-integrated’ and lower risk. Apparently, the RNZAF are big fans of their Wescam MX-20 EO/IR Turrets, and if needed could swap out the FLIR systems turret for an MX-20 or MX-25 (which still uses the MX-20 mount), but Saab is certain the Star-Safire is the superior system so included it in the proposal to the NZDF.

The addition of a drop-hatch specifically for the NZDF requirements is a good example of tailoring to local needs. It can still carry the SKAD pods of course, and well as ‘precision drop’ smaller rescue packages through the Sonubouy launchers. This is a big bonus when responding to a disaster situation that has a large number of persons under threat at once. ie: dropping dozens of 2/4 person life rafts instead of just a few 10-person life rafts. Think sinking ship…

The man-machine interface is also highly automated (in a similar way to the P-1’s system), with ergonomics specifically designed to lower crew workload and requirements. This lowering of crew requirements for deployment (including less support on the ground than the P-8) is a big deal to the NZDF with its obvious recruitment and retention issues and our demographic economy of scale and talent pool, not to mention the mere cost of deployment.

Lots of these system details got left out of the article I linked to when it was cut from 4000 words or so down to the 2000 words to fit into the magazine I am afraid…

I must apologise for my knowledge gap here, but I still fail to see why only a P8 is capable of integrating with the RAAF and USN P8 operations, including their BAMS setup, when other platforms such as RCAF CP-140’s have already done so. The entire point of the new communications standards is operability and the ability to exchange encrypted voice/data/targeting information isn’t it? I know the new smaller GDMSC Multi-Static Acoustic system can utilise sonobuoys that are cross-compatible with the existing systems used on the P8, except the new sonobuoys are smaller and cheaper yet have greater range and a wider dynamic range to noise-floor, meaning less of them need to be dropped to cover the same area. The information from these new bouys is distributable across link 16/22 datalinks and can be used by any system with the appropriate MSA equipment including aircraft, helicopters, or ships.

We have entered into wide-ranging maritime security pacts recently that will see us operating alongside all ASEAN nations, as well as the CMF in the middle east, and new UN HADR Rapid Reaction Packages being worked on at the moment that will see us directly integrating into operations that are increasingly not US-centric in nature. That doesn't mean our relationship with the US is reduced though. Cooperation is not a 'pie'; when you give someone a greater amount of cooperation you don't have to take any cooperation away from someone else... The ASEAN and Asia-Pacific dynamic is going to change rapidy in the next decade. And, as I said earlier, given the huge amount of influence that domestic industry has upon US foreign policy (as with other nations obviously), the likelihood of our interests diverging from theirs is going grow as economic and ecological pressures in the Pacific intensify, pitting purely commercial interests in resources against the publics desire to protect them. And it is the public desire that ideally drives our foreign policy in an actual democracy is it not? The unfortunate disinterest and ignorance within that public narrative are where the 'good' fight lies...

EDIT: Just one final thing... When performing Wide Area Surveillance, which is what the SeaSpray 7500E excels at, the G6000's ability to actually efficiently cruise at 50,000 ft, vs's the P8's 42,000ft, make the maximum range to horizon much further, given that the Earth's horizon is the limiting factor in target detection range. The SeaSpray 7000E can from this altitude detect small ships are 350nma and large ships at 400nm+. All the usual target type variable come in to play... That is what the ERIEYE-ER upgrade to the previous ERIEYE system was designed for, to make full use of that increase in operating altitude.
 
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ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Hey All.

Saab has offered only the G6000 to the NZDF, so all swordfish discussion here should only be for that platform.
....
The SAAB solution is only one solution and if, and that's a big if, the NZG decided to go down the business jet path the ELI-3360 G5000 MPA is just as good, if not better than Swordfish. So my strong suggestion is not to be fixated on the SAAB potential solution. The eventual FASC solution may not be just one platform type, but two or more and don't fixate on it operating out of Whenuapai, because Defence is open to operating it from one or two main bases depending upon what is selected. Also do not easily discount the P-1 because it has capabilities which will be almost as good as the P-8 and better than any business jet solution. Finally the P-8 does have capabilities and systems within it that the NZG find attractive with these not being available on other platforms. You won't find all of the P-8 (or P-1) capabilities available in the open literature, bandied around the internet with the real interesting ones kept very confidential.

I would strongly suggest that you read back through the thread to avail yourself of the discussion that has been undergoing about the FASC topic.
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
The SAAB solution is only one solution and if, and that's a big if, the NZG decided to go down the business jet path the ELI-3360 G5000 MPA is just as good, if not better than Swordfish. So my strong suggestion is not to be fixated on the SAAB potential solution. The eventual FASC solution may not be just one platform type, but two or more and don't fixate on it operating out of Whenuapai, because Defence is open to operating it from one or two main bases depending upon what is selected. Also do not easily discount the P-1 because it has capabilities which will be almost as good as the P-8 and better than any business jet solution. Finally the P-8 does have capabilities and systems within it that the NZG find attractive with these not being available on other platforms. You won't find all of the P-8 (or P-1) capabilities available in the open literature, bandied around the internet with the real interesting ones kept very confidential.

I would strongly suggest that you read back through the thread to avail yourself of the discussion that has been undergoing about the FASC topic.
In addition, one needs to keep in mind that the nature of warfare changes over time and as new developments become available. With these changes, what aspects have importance change. At present, information has become crucial, which means a number of things.

Sensors and their associated workstations are of critical importance, because they collect and process information. Along with that are comms and datalinks, which permit the relaying of information to decision-makers as well as assets which can make use of or respond to the information gathered.

As a side note, information and the ability to control it is one of the reasons why the US has the FMS and ITARS rules. Should sensor tech get out, it can permit adversaries to make advances in their sensors, and/or develop countermeasures to reduce the effectiveness of the sensors. As an example, China (PRC) has been working on developing an indigenous AEW capability because of what such a capability can provide. Last I had heard about it, the PLAAF had several different aircraft examples kitted out with various different radar systems including some either sourced from Europe, or assembling locally using some European-sourced components. Given the potential for conflicts between mainland China and Taiwan, or conflicts involving mainland China in the SCS and/or ECS, the US and others are (or at least should be) concerned about the potential improvements in information available to the PLAN and PLAAF from an AEW capability.

With respect to interoperability, the US and a number of major allies are moving towards the concepts of CEC and distributed lethality. As a result, there is an increased interest and need for sensor information to be compatible, as well as being able to be relayed in a usable format. As I understand it, the projected future needs will be beyond what Link 11/16/22 are designed to do, with the potential for Platform A to detect targets which are then assigned to and engaged by Platforms B and C, with warshots being guided in by Platform A, or something else entirely.
 

StereoGeek

New Member
The SAAB solution is only one solution and if, and that's a big if, the NZG decided to go down the business jet path the ELI-3360 G5000 MPA is just as good, if not better than Swordfish. So my strong suggestion is not to be fixated on the SAAB potential solution. The eventual FASC solution may not be just one platform type, but two or more and don't fixate on it operating out of Whenuapai, because Defence is open to operating it from one or two main bases depending upon what is selected. Also do not easily discount the P-1 because it has capabilities which will be almost as good as the P-8 and better than any business jet solution. Finally the P-8 does have capabilities and systems within it that the NZG find attractive with these not being available on other platforms. You won't find all of the P-8 (or P-1) capabilities available in the open literature, bandied around the internet with the real interesting ones kept very confidential.

I would strongly suggest that you read back through the thread to avail yourself of the discussion that has been undergoing about the FASC topic.

Hi Ngati

I’ve been following this thread with interest for years :) I agree with the potency of the P1. I would have loved to have included it in the comparison, but the Kawasaki people were uninterested in confirming any details on the platform or systems in Singapore, so I would have had to rely on ‘whatever was available on the internet’, which I steadfastly refused to do with that article. All the info I describe above, and in the article itself, for both platforms, came from the OEM’s themselves in person at their stands/chalets or emails after the fact, and current/ex MPA/ASW aircrews who were at the airshow in various capacities, including current P8 crews. The IAI stand also told me they are not involved with FASC at this stage, which was all I could glean from the short time they gave me, so I never went back to them. The only ones who said they specifically had an interest in FASC were Leonardo, Airbus, Boeing, Kawasaki, Embraer, Saab and Safran (Maybe with their ‘Patroller’ UAV and EuroFlir 410 but wouldn’t elaborate...)and Piaggio (and their P1.HH via Selex and Leonardo) . If you remember the grief the Greens gave the ministry when they found out the new P3K2 radar was Israeli (Elta EL/M 2022A[V]3), the chances of an Israeli system are low. As much as they are not in cabinet, they are still essential for Labour to keep its coalition together, so still have influence.

To be honest I get the impression you guys didn’t read the article anyway ;)

As an aside, if a two tier-option is the go, which I personally think is a great approach, I had a truly fascinating conversation with the people from Viking at their chalet for about an hour. They are about to start producing new-built CL415’s, (probably to be called the ‘CL515’). They will be modernised glass-cockpit versions that will retain all their excellent amphibious firefighting capability, as well as a new multi-mission Maritime Patrol and EMS capability. Imagine a CL415 with synthetic vision system and HUD, Selex Osprey AESA, a retractable 15” EO/IR turret, with a larger side cargo door to facilitate intensive care evacuation, and a removable mission workstation... That would be some excellent HADR and firefighting capability to operate alongside whatever the high-end FASC platform turns out to be... Interrsting no?
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
As an aside, if a two tier-option is the go, which I personally think is a great approach, I had a truly fascinating conversation with the people from Viking at their chalet for about an hour. They are about to start producing new-built CL415’s, (probably to be called the ‘CL515’). They will be modernised glass-cockpit versions that will retain all their excellent amphibious firefighting capability, as well as a new multi-mission Maritime Patrol and EMS capability. Imagine a CL415 with synthetic vision system and HUD, Selex Osprey AESA, a retractable 15” EO/IR turret, with a larger side cargo door to facilitate intensive care evacuation, and a removable mission workstation... That would be some excellent HADR and firefighting capability to operate alongside whatever the high-end FASC platform turns out to be... Interrsting no?
Such a project would be pretty demanding for a small company like Viking. They purchased the rights to the CL415 from Bombardier (some other legacy designs as well). They are having some success with their updated Otter. As for the CL415, Bombardier was not getting meaning sales for either the firefighting or MPA versions. Not sure if this was the reason they sold it off or their need for cash due to the C-Series crisis at the time. Viking needs some immediate sales for the firefighting model prior to committing to a new MPA. Given the huge forest fire season last year in British Columbia, they may get some new orders.
 

StereoGeek

New Member
Such a project would be pretty demanding for a small company like Viking. They purchased the rights to the CL415 from Bombardier (some other legacy designs as well). They are having some success with their updated Otter. As for the CL415, Bombardier was not getting meaning sales for either the firefighting or MPA versions. Not sure if this was the reason they sold it off or their need for cash due to the C-Series crisis at the time. Viking needs some immediate sales for the firefighting model prior to committing to a new MPA. Given the huge forest fire season last year in British Columbia, they may get some new orders.
Yes, Viking has really done well with the mess they inherited with the CL415. Bombardier had dropped the ball supporting customers of this aircraft, but their machines were absolutely essential to them and proving their worth time and time again, so Viking saw a niche support opportunity and took it over. Firstly their main priority was rejuvenating the supply and logistics nightmare that Bombardier left behind, and now having nailed that and getting the support of existing customers behind them again they are in a position to offer upgrading existing CL215's and CL415's to the new CL415EAF standard, which will make them all compatible with modern airspace requirements, ie: new avionics, ADS-B, new turboprops, air conditioning, better anti-corrosion for more sustainable salt-water opeartions and a new spray boom system etc. But customer interest has proven to outstrip the supply of existing airframes, so Viking is very confident there is a sustainable market there. The reason Bombardiers 'Multi-purpose' version failed, aside from a few sales to the Malaysians (which was the reason they lost interest) was because it sacrificed so much of the firefighting ability that makes the aircraft so invaluable. Viking has designed a new approach in the CL515, which adds mission flexibility and sensor integration while retaining its full water load and fire-fighting capability. They have all the original manufacturing machinery in their possession, and apparently, the CL415EAP process is a big head-start towards the new production capability. With the increase in high-profile fires of late, especially those in Canterbury and the one on the Chatham Islands that there was no capacity to fight (we sent a Hercules over to have a look and say 'ah yip, it's on fire'...). The aircraft has the range to self-deploy throughout the Pacific, and its amphibious capability is a great way to get first-responders on the ground to direct and analyse HADR needs if airports are taken out. Obviously, it's not the kind of epic HADR capability you get with a Shin-Maywa US2, but we have to be pragmatic when those cost $163mil+ each! And the CL415 is a better firefighter for our needs here. I am sure they would find a fair amount of work in Australia too in fire season.
 

Rob c

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
If you remember the grief the Greens gave the ministry when they found out the new P3K2 radar was Israeli (Elta EL/M 2022A[V]3), the chances of an Israeli system are low. As much as they are not in cabinet, they are still essential for Labour to keep its coalition together, so still have influence.
The politics involved due to the change in government cannot be ignored and could play a significant part in the selection process as it has in past labour lead governments
I’ve been following this thread with interest for years :) I agree with the potency of the P1. I would have loved to have included it in the comparison, but the Kawasaki people were uninterested in confirming any details on the platform
It is normal for the Japanese to be far less forth coming with info than the extroverted Americans, and so it has been difficult to really understand the KHI P 1
I think the change in government has thrown the FASC wide open and the Airforce and MOD may have already been given the hint as to what will pass cabinet.
Due to the change in government you may find that there will be changes to the FAMC , such as they may down grade the VIP requirement from essential to nice to have, to be seen to be more socially responsible.
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
To be honest I get the impression you guys didn’t read the article anyway ;)
No, some have indeed read the article. Aside from having what might be described as a more skeptical or jaundiced eye than the author has, there are several areas where others have either a different opinion on the importance, or information appears inaccurate.

Take the following comment

However; the P-8’s increased Maximum Take-Off Weight and size means it cannot operate with a full fuel load from Whenuapai Airbase in Auckland without major infrastructure investments.
Perhaps this could be clarified, but the implication seems to be that the runaways, tarmacs, and aprons at Whenuapai are presently not able to handle a P-8A Poseidon at MTOW. While that might be true (I have not gone digging to see what the runways are specifically rated at) then that is also a potential issue for the larger, and higher MTOW B757-200's already in RNZAF service and based out of Whenuapai/RNZAF Base Auckland.

Also some of the cost figures being thrown around sound very questionable. Pricing out aircraft is of course quite difficult, since the contracts are different between users and very often include much more than just the cost of the aircraft itself. Take the NZ request for 4 P-8A Poseidons +some spares and associated support for 1.46 bil. (presumably in USD) and compare that with Norway's order of 5 P-8A Poseidons for USD$1.15 bil. If one were to assume that the Norwegian order was just for the aircraft and no associated spares, training or support (NBL IMO) then that would indicate a 'fly-away' cost for the Poseidon at ~USD$230 mil. per aircraft, or ~NZD320 mil. per aircraft, at current exchange rates.

Consider then this quote

By comparison, the Australians are spending upwards of NZ$700 million upgrading RAAF Edinburgh to accommodate their new P-8s (about the
cost of two entire Swordfish aircraft).
That would suggest that the Global 6000/Swordfish MPA costs ~NZD$350 mil. per aircraft, or ~USD250 mil. per aircraft, which is rather striking given elsewhere in the article there is the assertion that the Global 6000/Swordfish MPA is two-thirds the cost of the Poseidon to purchase, and about half the cost to operate. I also find it interesting that with no contracts appearing to have been offered in the public domain, or examples of the Global 6000/Swordfish MPA in service, that such a claim would be made and it is therefore something to take with a large grain of salt.

I could go on, but rather than doing so I think it would be more appropriate to suggest that people keep in mind the roles of vendor agents and representatives, especially at air, trade and defence shows.
 

ASSAIL

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
I had assumed that the upgrades at RAAF Edinburgh were all support facilities and would be required to be completed irrespective of which new aircraft was introduced so any price comparison is irrelevant.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Hi Ngati

I’ve been following this thread with interest for years :) I agree with the potency of the P1. I would have loved to have included it in the comparison, but the Kawasaki people were uninterested in confirming any details on the platform or systems in Singapore, so I would have had to rely on ‘whatever was available on the internet’, which I steadfastly refused to do with that article. All the info I describe above, and in the article itself, for both platforms, came from the OEM’s themselves in person at their stands/chalets or emails after the fact, and current/ex MPA/ASW aircrews who were at the airshow in various capacities, including current P8 crews. The IAI stand also told me they are not involved with FASC at this stage, which was all I could glean from the short time they gave me, so I never went back to them. The only ones who said they specifically had an interest in FASC were Leonardo, Airbus, Boeing, Kawasaki, Embraer, Saab and Safran (Maybe with their ‘Patroller’ UAV and EuroFlir 410 but wouldn’t elaborate...)and Piaggio (and their P1.HH via Selex and Leonardo) . If you remember the grief the Greens gave the ministry when they found out the new P3K2 radar was Israeli (Elta EL/M 2022A[V]3), the chances of an Israeli system are low. As much as they are not in cabinet, they are still essential for Labour to keep its coalition together, so still have influence.

To be honest I get the impression you guys didn’t read the article anyway ;)
I have read your article and have kept the pdf.
As an aside, if a two tier-option is the go, which I personally think is a great approach, I had a truly fascinating conversation with the people from Viking at their chalet for about an hour. They are about to start producing new-built CL415’s, (probably to be called the ‘CL515’). They will be modernised glass-cockpit versions that will retain all their excellent amphibious firefighting capability, as well as a new multi-mission Maritime Patrol and EMS capability. Imagine a CL415 with synthetic vision system and HUD, Selex Osprey AESA, a retractable 15” EO/IR turret, with a larger side cargo door to facilitate intensive care evacuation, and a removable mission workstation... That would be some excellent HADR and firefighting capability to operate alongside whatever the high-end FASC platform turns out to be... Interrsting no?
Until we see how this govt will fund defence and what with, it's difficult to ascertain the the general direction of their intentions. However the ACTC (Aircrew Training Capability) was looking at installing two sets of sensors and consoles on Kingairs with these sets being portable. The new ACTC seven year lease contract was supposed to be in effect last September, but at the present point in time I believe that negotiations are still ongoing. Up until the election, the NZG was risk adverse, especially after previous defence acquisition stuff ups, and I think that the new govt may be similar, especially as Treasury is reputed to have finally accepted that, with regard to defence acquisitions, cheapest is not always best and fiscally responsible.

There are political and diplomatic reasons for the NZG to go with a Japanese acquisition rather than a Swedish one. I do agree that a fixed wing fire fighting capability is desirable, but previous NZGs have not seen it as necessary. There are portable kits that can be fitted to the C-130, in use in the US by the USAF and various Air National Guards, so if the C-130J is selected as part of the FAMC, then maybe such kits could be looked at.
 

MrConservative

Super Moderator
Staff member
Also some of the cost figures being thrown around sound very questionable. Pricing out aircraft is of course quite difficult, since the contracts are different between users and very often include much more than just the cost of the aircraft itself. Take the NZ request for 4 P-8A Poseidons +some spares and associated support for 1.46 bil. (presumably in USD) and compare that with Norway's order of 5 P-8A Poseidons for USD$1.15 bil. If one were to assume that the Norwegian order was just for the aircraft and no associated spares, training or support (NBL IMO) then that would indicate a 'fly-away' cost for the Poseidon at ~USD$230 mil. per aircraft, or ~NZD320 mil. per aircraft, at current exchange rates.
Todj your ballpark figure for the P-8A is very close to reality. The FY 2019 gross weapon system cost (GWSC) is $223,497,846 for 13 aircraft (Yes right down to the dollar - DoD appropriations are that accurate). The FY 2015 production lot of 9 aircraft was $252,747,889.
 

Rob c

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Perhaps this could be clarified, but the implication seems to be that the runaways, tarmacs, and aprons at Whenuapai are presently not able to handle a P-8A Poseidon at MTOW. While that might be true (I have not gone digging to see what the runways are specifically rated at) then that is also a potential issue for the larger, and higher MTOW B757-200's already in RNZAF service and based out of Whenuapai/RNZAF Base Auckland.
The problem at for the P8 at MTOW is simply runway length. The main runway at Whenuapai, being roughly 1000 meters short for MTOW departures and the cross runway about a further 500 meters short. While the P8 could easily be operated from A.I.A. there would be a cost to this. I don't think that the weight it self would be a problem as there has been a lot of work done in this area.
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
The problem at for the P8 at MTOW is simply runway length. The main runway at Whenuapai, being roughly 1000 meters short for MTOW departures and the cross runway about a further 500 meters short. While the P8 could easily be operated from A.I.A. there would be a cost to this. I don't think that the weight it self would be a problem as there has been a lot of work done in this area.
That conflicts (fairly significantly IMO) with information I am finding.

Keeping in mind that the recommended minimum runway length for a specific aircraft model at MTOW is dependent on conditions, with high humidity and air temperatures requiring more runway. From what I have been able to gather, the USN recommends 8,000 ft/~2,439 m of runway to operate a P-8A Poseidon at MTOW taking off in extreme conditions from Marine Corps Base Hawaii, formerly MCAS Kaneohe Bay which btw only has a 7,771 ft/ 2,369 m runway. Using that same distance for Whenuapai airfield, the runway would only be ~1,335 ft/~407 m short of what the USN recommended runway length for a MTOW P-8A Poseidon in extreme conditions.

Given that the MCBH is in Hawaii and has high humidity year round and a fairly warm temperature when compared to Auckland, I suspect that the recommended minimum runway length for a MTOW P-8A Poseidon at Whenuapai would be less than 8,000 ft/2,439 m, especially if not taking off in 'extreme conditions'.

As a side note, some of the civilian B737-800 operators (Ryanair comes to mind) have set their minimum required runway length at 6,076 ft/~1,852 m. Granted, a P-8A Poseidon at MTOW is likely going to be 7,000+ kg heavier, that still suggests to me that the P-8A Poseidon at MTOW would not need a 3,000 m runway.

Also to keep things in perspective, a 3,000 m runway (approx. 1,000 m longer than Whenuapai) is a little shorter than the runways at Andersen AFB on Guam at 3,218 m and 3,409 m respectively, and these runways handle B-1, B-2, and B-52 strategic bombers.

As a side note, if the Whenuapai runway is too short for a P-8A Poseidon to really use at MTOW, then the RNZAF is likely to encounter problems if a large aircraft is selected for a strategic lift role, as the longest RNZAF runway is at Ohakea and is only ~2,400 m in length.
 

KiwiRob

Well-Known Member
That conflicts (fairly significantly IMO) with information I am finding.

Keeping in mind that the recommended minimum runway length for a specific aircraft model at MTOW is dependent on conditions, with high humidity and air temperatures requiring more runway. From what I have been able to gather, the USN recommends 8,000 ft/~2,439 m of runway to operate a P-8A Poseidon at MTOW taking off in extreme conditions from Marine Corps Base Hawaii, formerly MCAS Kaneohe Bay which btw only has a 7,771 ft/ 2,369 m runway. Using that same distance for Whenuapai airfield, the runway would only be ~1,335 ft/~407 m short of what the USN recommended runway length for a MTOW P-8A Poseidon in extreme conditions.

Given that the MCBH is in Hawaii and has high humidity year round and a fairly warm temperature when compared to Auckland, I suspect that the recommended minimum runway length for a MTOW P-8A Poseidon at Whenuapai would be less than 8,000 ft/2,439 m, especially if not taking off in 'extreme conditions'.

As a side note, some of the civilian B737-800 operators (Ryanair comes to mind) have set their minimum required runway length at 6,076 ft/~1,852 m. Granted, a P-8A Poseidon at MTOW is likely going to be 7,000+ kg heavier, that still suggests to me that the P-8A Poseidon at MTOW would not need a 3,000 m runway.

Also to keep things in perspective, a 3,000 m runway (approx. 1,000 m longer than Whenuapai) is a little shorter than the runways at Andersen AFB on Guam at 3,218 m and 3,409 m respectively, and these runways handle B-1, B-2, and B-52 strategic bombers.

As a side note, if the Whenuapai runway is too short for a P-8A Poseidon to really use at MTOW, then the RNZAF is likely to encounter problems if a large aircraft is selected for a strategic lift role, as the longest RNZAF runway is at Ohakea and is only ~2,400 m in length.
The issue isn't so much the weight it's the fact that the 737 has incredibly poor takeoff performance, it's a legacy of its ancient design and short undercarriage.

I'd also be surprised if Ryanair ever operated a 737-800 at MTOW, their business model is all about fast turnaround, they actively discourage people checking baggage, it's carry on only for them.
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
The issue isn't so much the weight it's the fact that the 737 has incredibly poor takeoff performance, it's a legacy of its ancient design and short undercarriage.
Not sure that statement is really accurate, at least with respect to the newer B-737's. There is a short field performance package available for B737-700/800 series models, and standard on a B737-900 series model, with examples fitted to B737-700 & -800 aircraft which take off from ~1,300 m runways for passenger service on ~2,300 km flights.

Now yes, we do not know how close the aircraft would normally be to MTOW for such a route, but what I have been trying to illustrate is that the later models of the B737 aircraft and their derivatives, do not require 3,000 m runways to operate from safely.

All of this also does not even get into the question of how often any potential Kiwi P-8A Poseidons would need to take off from a RNZAF base under 'extreme conditions' at MTOW, which is what led to the USN recommending an 8,000 ft runway for a P-8A Poseidon at MTOW.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
... Pricing out aircraft is of course quite difficult, since the contracts are different between users and very often include much more than just the cost of the aircraft itself. ...


That would suggest that the Global 6000/Swordfish MPA costs ~NZD$350 mil. per aircraft, or ~USD250 mil. per aircraft, which is rather striking given elsewhere in the article there is the assertion that the Global 6000/Swordfish MPA is two-thirds the cost of the Poseidon to purchase, and about half the cost to operate. I also find it interesting that with no contracts appearing to have been offered in the public domain, or examples of the Global 6000/Swordfish MPA in service, that such a claim would be made and it is therefore something to take with a large grain of salt.
1. Absolutely. Prices of military aircraft are particularly difficult to compare. They often include substantial quantities of spares, training, sometimes weapons, & ongoing support, & differing quantities from contract to contract.

2. The operating cost of the basic aircraft should be well known within the industry. What we don't know is how much extra operating cost is associated with the military conversion, e.g. the sensors, & how military-specific operating profiles affect costs. SAAB should be able to estimate that (roughly, at least), but we don't know what data & assumptions they've used.
 

Rob c

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
1. Absolutely. Prices of military aircraft are particularly difficult to compare. They often include substantial quantities of spares, training, sometimes weapons, & ongoing support, & differing quantities from contract to contract.

2. The operating cost of the basic aircraft should be well known within the industry. What we don't know is how much extra operating cost is associated with the military conversion, e.g. the sensors, & how military-specific operating profiles affect costs. SAAB should be able to estimate that (roughly, at least), but we don't know what data & assumptions they've used.
Comparing the operating costs is an interesting exercise. I have come across a Rand paper on comparing DOD aircraft operating and support costs which quoted a US P-8A Poseidon operating price of USD$4,200 per flight-hour during the search for the Malaysian Airlines Flight 370 back in 2014. That price is itself lower than the price ranges I have come across for the Bombardier Global 6000 (~USD$5,000 - 7,000 per flight-hour) or the Boeing BBJ 2 (~USD$5,500 - 7,500 per flight-hour). Part of the price range is due to different estimates based upon the number of hours flown per year, with the range from 200 to 400 flight-hours, and the more accrued the lower cost per flight-hour. Given that a Pentagon spokesman quoted a lower per flight-hour cost for the P-8A Poseidon than the BBJ 2, which is also based off the Boeing B737-800, I do have to wonder both what assumptions have been made about operating conditions, as well as what Saab expects the Global 6000/Swordfish to cost to operate.

In addition, I came across a DOD Selected Acquisition Report on the P-8A Poseidon from 2017 which projected the P-8A Poseidon to have an annual operating and support cost of ~2010 USD$15.6 mil. per aircraft.

@Rob c, impressive document find!:)
That was one of the sources I came across when attempting to determine the runway requirements for the P-8A Poseidon. I had a few questions on it so I am waiting to here back from an airline pilot I know regarding some of the data, as the graphs on p. 151 and subsequent pages have multiple temperature references which are different. More specifically, the lines which indicate pressure altitude also have a temperature listed, when the overall graph also lists a temperature of Standard Day +nn temperature.

Also the USN published a Notice of Intent for a supplemental EIS regarding P-8A Poseidon basing, which involved rotating a pair of Poseidons normally stationed at Whidbey Island to MCBH which as I had mentioned earlier only has a 2,369 m long runway.
 

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