Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) News and Discussions

ASSAIL

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
I thought they were supposed to make an announcement next year? In any event, it is not politically feasible to buy fighter jets during pandemic.
Why, do the jets get infected?
Defence acquisition is a complex and ongoing process. Yes governments are spending big countering COVID but that is short term.
The acquisition of new fighters is an ongoing financial commitment over many years, it’s not a matter of putting cash on the counter and walking away with a shiny new toy.
What Canada needs is a government willing to commit, simple.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
First signs the fighter replacement program may be going off the rails. Junior will run with the COVID excuse as a delaying tactic for as long as possible hoping to find a reason not to select the likely winner on technical and price merit. His minions are probably working on explanations to reduce the number of jets from the specified 88. Note the usual anti-F-35 bias towards the end of the article.
 

Delta204

Member
First signs the fighter replacement program may be going off the rails. Junior will run with the COVID excuse as a delaying tactic for as long as possible hoping to find a reason not to select the likely winner on technical and price merit. His minions are probably working on explanations to reduce the number of jets from the specified 88. Note the usual anti-F-35 bias towards the end of the article.
Not much of a surprise; likely some sort of change of plan in the works. With the used Australian F-18's coming into service the gov could presumably get away with a limited order of ~40 new aircraft and still meet NORAD / NATO commitments. The Australian hornets along with a few of the existing fleet in the best condition will make up 30+ aircraft that will received the new APG-79v4 radar and other upgrades to keep them flying for some time.
 
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John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Not much of a surprise; likely some sort of change of plan in the works. With the used Australian F-18's coming into service the gov could presumably get away with a limited order of ~40 new aircraft and still meet NORAD / NATO commitments. The Australian hornets along with a few of the existing fleet in the best condition will make up 30+ aircraft that will received the new APG-79v4 radar and other upgrades to keep them flying for some time.
IIRC, Canada, Finland, and Spain are the last legacy Hornet users. Finland has all its bids in and should make a decision shortly. Spain is further away but is leaning towards the Eurofighter as it wants to be part of the Euro 6th Gen project.(navy may purchase F-35B). Pity the RCAF pilots that will be flying legacy Hornets beyond 2030. Likely they are looking south already as I type. Junior, the best RAAF recruiting tool ever!!!
 

Mikeymike

New Member
Some reports that Boeing are out of the running. Not sure what the reason would be if true. Possibly related to the Bombardier incident and economic damage clause.


If this is true it also means that SAAB and the Gripen has met them which is surprising if Boeing didn't.

Obviously not confirmed until officially announced
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Some reports that Boeing are out of the running. Not sure what the reason would be if true. Possibly related to the Bombardier incident and economic damage clause.


If this is true it also means that SAAB and the Gripen has met them which is surprising if Boeing didn't.

Obviously not confirmed until officially announced
If true, it will be interesting to see what parameters Boeing failed to meet. Another blackeye for the idiots at Boeing who promoted the trade action against Boeing. The cancelled interim SH order would have made it difficult for competitors to get the follow-on order IMO. A Saab win will cause a $hitstorm, especially with Bombardier involvement in production.
 

pkcasimir

Member
If true, it will be interesting to see what parameters Boeing failed to meet. Another blackeye for the idiots at Boeing who promoted the trade action against Boeing. The cancelled interim SH order would have made it difficult for competitors to get the follow-on order IMO. A Saab win will cause a $hitstorm, especially with Bombardier involvement in production.
The US Congress will not accept a Saab win, especially since the Republicans will take back control of the House, and probably the Senate, in January 2023. Biden will be totally irrelevant then, if he isn't now, and Trudeau has absolutely no influence in the US. The US has a number of ways to make Canada pay a very hefty price.

@pkcasimir You have been on here long enough to know the rules WRT politics. Your comment is partisan and no way fits within the criteria. Don't do it again.

Ngatimozart.
 
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Mikeymike

New Member

Official announcement confirming it is indeed true. So down to a two horse race between SAAB and the F35A.

Personally think the F35 is the better choice, particularly when you count the number of Allies using it compared to the number using the Gripen.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Again, it would be interesting to know exactly why the Boeing bid was found lacking. My best guess is the industrial benefits as I don’t think Gripen has any technical advantages over the SH, other than maybe CPFH and short runway performance. Boeing deserved this outcome IMHO. Hopefully LM gets the contract as it is the best long term choice.

Never know with junior however.
 

pkcasimir

Member
The US Congress will not accept a Saab win, especially since the Republicans will take back control of the House, and probably the Senate, in January 2023. Biden will be totally irrelevant then, if he isn't now, and Trudeau has absolutely no influence in the US. The US has a number of ways to make Canada pay a very hefty price.

@pkcasimir You have been on here long enough to know the rules WRT politics. Your comment is partisan and no way fits within the criteria. Don't do it again.

Ngatimozart.
I fail to see it as partisan. Any reaction to a Canadian decision on a purchase of SAAB fighters will involve the US President and Congress. They are constitutionally separate branches and if they are controlled by different political parties than that is the reality of the situation and must be factored into the equation. The US is not a parliamentary democracy like Canada. There is a deliberate separation of powers. Canadians should be aware of that. Therefore, my remarks reflect what I perceive will be the reality of the situation. And the statement that Trudeau has absolutely no influence is an expression of reality that Canada has to deal with and factor into any decision. It is not a partisan statement to express reality.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
I fail to see it as partisan. Any reaction to a Canadian decision on a purchase of SAAB fighters will involve the US President and Congress. They are constitutionally separate branches and if they are controlled by different political parties than that is the reality of the situation and must be factored into the equation. The US is not a parliamentary democracy like Canada. There is a deliberate separation of powers. Canadians should be aware of that. Therefore, my remarks reflect what I perceive will be the reality of the situation. And the statement that Trudeau has absolutely no influence is an expression of reality that Canada has to deal with and factor into any decision. It is not a partisan statement to express reality.
Although the F-35 is the right choice, an alternative non-US choice is Canada's decision. I would be amazed if your dysfunctional Congress would notice at the moment and post Nov22, stuff hitting the fan will make any notice extremely unlikely due to domestic turmoil.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Not sure what to make of this unless Boeing actually had technical deficiencies. The other two bidders may be asked to sweeten their bids, seemingly unfair if Boeing’s bid was rejected due to industrial offsets/pricing only but they deserve to be screwed. A possible win for junior because if Boeing protests, he gets to delay the program.

 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
I fail to see it as partisan. Any reaction to a Canadian decision on a purchase of SAAB fighters will involve the US President and Congress. They are constitutionally separate branches and if they are controlled by different political parties than that is the reality of the situation and must be factored into the equation. The US is not a parliamentary democracy like Canada. There is a deliberate separation of powers. Canadians should be aware of that. Therefore, my remarks reflect what I perceive will be the reality of the situation. And the statement that Trudeau has absolutely no influence is an expression of reality that Canada has to deal with and factor into any decision. It is not a partisan statement to express reality.
Your comment about the current POTUS being irrelevant and the Republicans taking control of both Houses in the Mid Terms make it partisan. We have no tolerance for US political shenanigans spilling on to the Forum. FYI the Canadians and other non US posters are more aware of US politics that they sometimes would like to be. I am not penalising you this time, but making the point very clear. If you want to push it, the next encounter won't be so nice.
 

Paull Fuzzball

New Member
Personally, I think Canada will select Gripen E. It is cost effective and meets Canada's needs. Also, it uses F404 engine so Americans should be satisfied. Based on public opinion, there is very little public support for expensive jet purchase. Gripen E buy should be very popular with the Canadian public who not only want a budget jet but also tilt more towards neutrality. Personally, I'm quite surprised Eurofighter Typhoon is not in the bidding process considering Canada and the UK historically have close ties. I personally would be satisfied with a Eurofighter Typhoon buy for the Canadian air force.
 
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cdxbow

Well-Known Member
Personally, I think Canada will select Gripen E. It is cost effective and meets Canada's needs. Also, it uses F404 engine so Americans should be satisfied. Based on public opinion, there is very little public support for expensive jet purchase. Gripen E buy should be very popular with the Canadian public who not only want a budget jet but also tilt more towards neutrality. Personally, I'm quite surprised Eurofighter Typhoon is not in the bidding process considering Canada and the UK historically have close ties. I personally would be satisfied with a Eurofighter Typhoon buy for the Canadian air force.
I find it hard to understand how buying a jet that flew 33 years ago and will be expected to be competitive for another 30-40 years is even being considered. It's flyaway cost is allegedly $100-113 m USD. - Svensk Gripen E påstås dyrare än schweizisk (nyteknik.se) making it significantly dearer than the F35A. Perhaps the RCAF would like to buy some more shagged out Hornets from the RAAF instead?.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Personally, I think Canada will select Gripen E. It is cost effective and meets Canada's needs. Also, it uses F404 engine so Americans should be satisfied. Based on public opinion, there is very little public support for expensive jet purchase. Gripen E buy should be very popular with the Canadian public who not only want a budget jet but also tilt more towards neutrality. Personally, I'm quite surprised Eurofighter Typhoon is not in the bidding process considering Canada and the UK historically have close ties. I personally would be satisfied with a Eurofighter Typhoon buy for the Canadian air force.
If Canada selects the Gripen it will be an outlier within FVEY and most of NATO. The Typhoon is too expensive to procure and operate, and like the Gripen is not LO. Finally the F-35 offers capabilities that no 4G, 4G+, or 4G++ aircraft offers. LO is just one aspect of the F-35 capabilities and arguably not the most important capability. It all comes down to VfM = Value for Money.
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
Personally, I think Canada will select Gripen E. It is cost effective and meets Canada's needs. Also, it uses F404 engine so Americans should be satisfied. Based on public opinion, there is very little public support for expensive jet purchase. Gripen E buy should be very popular with the Canadian public who not only want a budget jet but also tilt more towards neutrality. Personally, I'm quite surprised Eurofighter Typhoon is not in the bidding process considering Canada and the UK historically have close ties. I personally would be satisfied with a Eurofighter Typhoon buy for the Canadian air force.
This has been discussed to a significant degree previously in the thread. In a nutshell though, the Gripen E might meet current Canadian needs with some modification. IMO it is dubious that even 20 years from now a 4th or 4.5 gen fighter would be sufficient to meet RCAF obligations and needs, unless the world manages to stay largely at peace. Expecting the Gripen E to still be suitable for frontline service in the 2050's or later is IMO entirely too optimistic.

As for whether or not the Gripen E is "cost effective" that too is questionable, as a significant part of the costs would revolve around who does the aircraft production. If the aircraft are ordered from a 'hot' production line in Sweden the flyaway costs might be less per than an F-35. OTOH is the plan is to have domestic Canadian production of Gripen E, then I would expect the costs (based off the costs for Brazil in setting up Gripen production) would be perhaps 50% than the flyaway costs for an F-35.

Lastly, the fact that a Gripen E might make use of US-sourced F404 engines is not IMO a sufficient inducement to satisfy US interests. Whatever ends up being the RCAF's replacement fighter is going to be a part of NORAD and therefore it would be in the interest of the US for the RCAF to have a replacement fighter capable of operating in both current and likely future combat environments. Just using US engines would not make up for selecting an aircraft that is less capable overall.
 
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