Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) News and Discussions

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
Good points Todjaeger and I did forget about Spanish F18s when I posted. I like being the devils advocate on topics that I have ability to influence.

My previous posts on DT have noted my desire for a tiered capability for the RCAF in terms of capability. Buying the high end to accomplish all tasks is a waste when you only need this ability on occassion. If we need an expiditionary strike capability to interact seamlessly with our allies then sure buy a squadron and some of F35. For domestic air policing and naval strike from RCAF bases the Gripen is more than capable. In fact it would allow pilots to have a career path allowing for advancement from the Gripen to the F35. No single tool in a tool box does all tasks well. Having variety in weapons systems is the same. Yes there is a cost but we can afford it. We just dont want to pay for it.
The Gripen might be capable for domestic air policing and maritime strike missions now, but what about a decade from now, or two or even three decades from now?

The F-35 is expected to provide capabilities beyond what the Gripen is expected to provide, and for more roles than just expeditionary and/or strike missions.

As I see it, there are two areas where the Gripen has a potential advantage over the F-35 and these both involve aircraft costs and not any capability outputs from the aircraft themselves.

Yes, I am aware that with a new version of the F-414 engine the Gripen might have a higher top speed, but at this point a higher raw speed is not a major advantage.

The operating costs for a Gripen could be lower per flight hour than an F-35, for the missions which both aircraft are equally capable of performing.

The initial aircraft acquisition costs has already been mentioned and that honestly is still up in the air since the acquisition cost would also depend on where the aircraft was assembled and the parts produced. I will try and put something together to consolidate my thoughts on Canadian fighter production, but the sort quick version is that I just do not see it being cost effective for Canada.
 

MickB

Well-Known Member
Good points Todjaeger and I did forget about Spanish F18s when I posted. I like being the devils advocate on topics that I have ability to influence.

My previous posts on DT have noted my desire for a tiered capability for the RCAF in terms of capability. Buying the high end to accomplish all tasks is a waste when you only need this ability on occassion. If we need an expiditionary strike capability to interact seamlessly with our allies then sure buy a squadron and some of F35. For domestic air policing and naval strike from RCAF bases the Gripen is more than capable. In fact it would allow pilots to have a career path allowing for advancement from the Gripen to the F35. No single tool in a tool box does all tasks well. Having variety in weapons systems is the same. Yes there is a cost but we can afford it. We just dont want to pay for it.
I fail to see the logic in this, all tasks the Gripen can do can be done by the F35. You state that in some tasks the Gripen is more capable but I have yet to see evidence of this.
Even if the F35 is currently less capable in these tasks it will have a long development path across many users to redress this.

With to purchase price approx the same the only savings may come in operating costs. Yet any savings will be eaten up by the cost of operating two front line fighters with different supply chains and training pathways.

If you argued a two teir system with F35s and Super Tucano that I could understand more.
 
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Calculus

Well-Known Member
I remember reading of an incident of an RCN destroyer or cruiser being deployed from the ETO to the Pacific War after the German surrender in 1945. The crew on that ship whinged and threatened mutiny because they claimed that they didn't sign up to fight Japs who they claimed were no threat to Canada. So the RCN & Canadian Govt gave in and ordered the ship back to Canada with no replacement sent, and probably no disciplinary action either. Meanwhile, Australian & Kiwi sailors who'd been fighting since September 1939 were still fighting in the Pacific alongside RAAF, RNZAF, Australian & NZ Army, plus US forces. Adm Nimitz was not impressed with the RCN pulling its ship out because it meant a restructuring of forces. It also wasn't looked upon kindly by the Australian and NZ forces either, because it made their job dealing with Gen Douglas MacArthur harder, due too his arrogance and prejudice against non US forces.
Before you make generalized statements without context disparaging Canadian fighting men and women, it would be appreciated if you could research your facts. What you refer to is known in Canada as the Uganda incident, or episode (as in HMCS Uganda), and is a sore spot in Canada and RCN circles for the way that ship was treated (and supported, or, rather, not supported) by the Admiralty in the Pacific theatre, despite exemplary performance. You can read about it here: The UGANDA Episode

I think this thread has drifted off topic....
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Perhaps just one more comment on this OT event. Had it not been for the atomic bomb, I think the western allies would have faced huge morale and possibly actual army mutiny events if ET soldiers were deployed to the Pacific.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
The torturously slow pace of Canadian defence procurement and replacement comes to mind. Particularly given the rising capabilities of countries like the PRC, and how Russia has been regaining some lost capabilities alongside fielding new ones.

EDIT: Additional thought/comment.

The apparent indifference of the average Canadian towards gov't expenditure and procurement of defence kit would, IMO also fall into the category of not recognizing where the situation in the Arctic could be heading.
It is this indifference that is at the root of the problem here and it isn't only the Arctic that is at stake. Until Canadians wake up to this, pollies like junior are free to screw DND into oblivion. Frankly I have no idea as to how this can be changed short of fecal matter hitting a fan at which point it will be too late.
 

John Newman

The Bunker Group
Yes I saw that report today. The simple question is, "when will this Ground Hog Day ever end??" Will the decision that was made many years ago (F-35) finally happen?

I'm sure that if I went off the air for a year or two and came back to asking "so whatever happened to the Canucks replacement of Classic Hornets?" everyone would fall over and roll on the floor laughing.

Anyway, wake me up when it's all over, ok??
 

Calculus

Well-Known Member
As told to me by someone who was part of the National Fighter Procurement Secretariat (NFPS) evaluation in 2013, one of the key criteria that was looked at when they evaluated the 5 candidate aircraft (F35, SH, Typhoon, Rafale, and Gripen E), was how much empty usable space was inside the barrel. This was key for two reasons: 1. To allow for the extra "Two Eyes" (more correctly known as CANUS) kit, and 2. to allow for future expansion. (As an aside, I have been told that extra kit is NORAD specific, and consists of extra radios, for data exchange, SATCOM gear, extra computers, and cryptographic "black" boxes). The only two aircraft that had sufficient barrel space without major modification were SH and F35. In other words, those two planes could accommodate the NORAD gear and still have space for future expansion without having to modify the aircraft in some way. The other three did not, and two of the three (Rafale and Typhoon) have publicly removed themselves from the Future Fighter Capability Project competition due primarily to the expense and complexity associated with making that space.

In my opinion, I believe the only reason SAAB would choose to remain in the competition is because of the "Made in Canada" angle. They would have to believe that politics will prevail over military need and common sense, and unfortunately, there is precedent for this in past Canadian defence procurement. However, Airbus had also made a similar "Made in Canada" pitch, and they obviously reached the conclusion this would not be enough to prevail, so I'm going to agree with John here and predict this will soon be a SH vs. F35 competition.

Here is a fascinating read on this ongoing saga: http://macdonaldlaurier.ca/files/pdf/20190502_MLI_COMMENTARY_Shimooka_FWeb.pdf
 
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John Fedup

The Bunker Group
@Calculus ... the last sentence in your link really sums up the situation, will the RCAF see survival out to its 100th anniversary. If junior gets a second mandate, seeing 100 is questionable. I think 15 CSCs for the RCN would be questionable as well.
 
Read a article in Ottawa citizen defence watch today it said the GOC gave the nwt government 150 million over 5 years to modernize and expand the Inuvik runway from 6000 to 9000 feet we use the municipal airport there as a fol I'm hoping they are expanding the runway so we can land f35s
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
F35 Demo Team at the Gatineau-Ottawa airshow: USAF F-35s Star at AERO Gatineau-Ottawa 2019 Air Show - Canadian Defence Review | Canadian Defence Review

More on this, with a bit of perspective on what this means with regards to the Future Fighter Capability Project: https://www.cbc.ca/news/SOMNIA-1.5270600
I would be interested in what the person named in the article as Alex McColl has written and/or the results of his research, particularly since it was stated that he favoured Saab's Gripen. Given that the article specifically mentions that the F-35 is sometimes inaccurately described as a "first strike weapon", and McColl's comment in the article about how he thinks the US would enter/engage a hostile IADS.

"All of the strike scenarios are peer-level strike scenarios against adversaries with state-of-the-art Russian equipment," said McColl, whose in-depth paper favoured the Swedish competitor, the Saab-built Gripen.

One scenario in the request for proposals, for example, involves Canada's future fighter jets evading Russian-style air defences to bomb an airport.

"That is heavily biased towards the F-35. And it is such an aggressive use of the F-35 that I don't even think the Americans would ever do that," said McColl, whose research is available through the University of Calgary website.

In any such scenario, he said, the U.S. would take out the anti-aircraft batteries remotely with cruise missiles, or B-1 bomber strikes, before sending any fighter jets — including the F-35 — into a contested airspace.
I found the comment interesting, because that IMO is not really how the US would carry out an IADS rollback. I agree that LACM's would see some usage, particularly against fixed target locations, but the statement about sending in B-1 Lancer strikes before the IADS is neutralized makes no sense. I could see using B-2 Spirit bombers to carry out strike missions, because it is a LO aircraft, but a B-1 is not and if there is a functioning radar and SAM launcher, a B-1 would be in trouble. This in turn makes me wonder if McColl was being incorrectly or inaccurately quoted, or if he is a "defence researcher" who does not really understand what he is talking about.
 

MickB

Well-Known Member
Had quick scan of the article and as far as I can tell it pushes these main points

* Canadians don't care about defence.
*Defence spending is primarily used for political gain.
*Canada fought this way in the past so therefore it must be how they will always fight in the future.
* The SAAB option is roughly comparable to the capability you have now not an improvement.

What appears to be ignored
* The falling unit cost of the F35.
* That past conflicts with opposition aircraft were near peer, as in non-stealth V non-stealth. Future conflicts where one side has stealth are not comparable.

Side note: Exec's and test pilots working for Boeing and L M are implied to have bias yet those from SAAB always tell the gospel truth. (Shades of APA)
 
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I skimmed through it, the author is definitely on the Saab bandwagon and seems to feel it's ok to fight tomorrows battles with yesterdays equipment.I saw one thing related to a post I made yesterday about one of our arctic fol.He said the gripen can land at any of our fol and that the f35 can only land at one of them because it needs 8000 ft minimum runway so hopefully the announcement yesterday that fol Inuviks runway is being extended to 9000 ft is a sign that the f35 is being selected
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
I skimmed through it, the author is definitely on the Saab bandwagon and seems to feel it's ok to fight tomorrows battles with yesterdays equipment.I saw one thing related to a post I made yesterday about one of our arctic fol.He said the gripen can land at any of our fol and that the f35 can only land at one of them because it needs 8000 ft minimum runway so hopefully the announcement yesterday that fol Inuviks runway is being extended to 9000 ft is a sign that the f35 is being selected
Honestly given the factors involved in takeoff and especially landing an aircraft, I would take that information claim with a large grain of salt. Or perhaps several such grains.

Typically a hot and/or high takeoff will require a longer runway for a given aircraft and loadout due to air density. Given that the Arctic tends to not be particularly hot, or high... then the air density would likely be greater. What I would be concerned about would be the potential for ice on the runway and the impact that might have on takeoff and landing.

As a side note, the 8,000 ft length figure I have seen for the F-35A is sourced from an Australian Defence doc submitted to the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Public Works in June 2014. The doc also lists a runway length requirement at RAAF Base Williamtown of 10,000 feet to operate the F-35 for two reasons. The first being that trainee F-35 pilots need/should have an extra 2,000 feet of runway to provide a greater safety margin to abort a takeoff, and the second reasons is to meet the RAAF's strategy for noise mitigation.

In the quick skim through I have done so far, a few things stood out.

One is the author's usage of the term, "stealth" which is not a term the professionals use, with the pros instead using the term Low Observable or LO. His use of the term makes me question where and how he got his information, as well as whether he actually understood it. A "defence researcher" writing a policy submission using a term for laypeople/the public at large, as opposed to what what defence and defence industry people use is suspect IMO.

Another was his interest/focus on cost, and how Gripen is supposed to be much more affordable than the F-35. Aside from that being possibly very incorrect, depending on where any Canadian-ordered Gripens are built, it seems to ignore how much the production costs for the F-35 have come down, very much in line with cost predictions. The interest also does not IMO make much sense given how often Canadian gov'ts have made decisions on defence procurements based on politics and what would harm a political opponent's reputation, or prevent harm to a political ally's, to the point of spending significant funds to engage in such behavior. Yes, I am looking at the whole Canadian EH-101 order, cancellation of order, then new EH-101 and then S-92 orders debacle. McColl even noted that a new Canadian gov't had spent CAN$500 mil. cancelling an already signed contract for EH-101 helicopters which were needed to replace aging SAR and ASW helicopters, following a change in gov't. A follow-on helicopter replacement programme when it was decided that replacements really could not be put off any longer even had the PMO intervene to ensure that the EH-101 could not be selected for part of the replacement, because the original EH-101 order had been cancelled by the then sitting PM's predecessor from the same political party. Given that Canada as it is does not see too interested in dedicating funding to defence programmes, it would seem to me that any future programme would need to have industrial contract terms which include penalties high enough to trigger the fall of a gov't, so that a change in gov't would not introduce the risk of political retaliation.

The last thing which really seemed to stand out, though I really need to read the document in more detail, is how much the document seemed to focus on what could meet the current capabilities, and how little attention seemed to be getting paid to what the future operating environment conditions could possibly be or even what they were likely to be. I consider it odd that a policy submission for something which likely would still see service until ~2060 would seem to pay so little attention to what the situation would likely be between now and then. It seems awfully short-sighted, at least to me.
 
There was a piece by the same author out earlier this year in a cbc article talking about the fighter jet procurement and the CSC I think he's with Calgary University if anyone wants to look for it
 

hauritz

Well-Known Member
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