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Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) News and Discussions

Discussion in 'Air Force & Aviation' started by John Fedup, Jun 16, 2015.

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  1. ngatimozart

    ngatimozart Super Moderator Staff Member Verified Defense Pro

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    But at the end of the day are the budget and expectations realistic and value for money? That really is the important question. The Future fighter capability project – Air – Defence and marine procurement – Buying and Selling – PSPC Services is lacking on details; at present it's more aspiration than anything else. I couldn't find a link to the RFP or failing that the initial RFI which would've been really helpful. Do they release those documents? They do here in NZ where all you have to do is register at the Govt tenders site at no cost.
     
    Calculus likes this.
  2. Calculus

    Calculus Active Member

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    They do, depending on the sensitivity of the information. There is a website where all procurement notices are posted (buyandsell.gc.ca - Buyandsell.gc.ca). However, a quick search revealed no RFP or RFI. They may only be made available to registered pre-vetted members anyway, as both documents would probably be under some form of classification.
     
  3. John Fedup

    John Fedup Well-Known Member

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    I am not sure if PWGSC have actually listed a RFP, restricted or otherwise.
     
  4. ngatimozart

    ngatimozart Super Moderator Staff Member Verified Defense Pro

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    That's interesting because even the NZ P3 replacement RFI was placed on the NZ Govt Tenders System. Not there now because it went out 2014 /2015 from memory, but some of us downloaded the documentation from there.
     
  5. Todjaeger

    Todjaeger Potstirrer

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    AND

    A few things to keep in mind which applies to production of anything, not just military kit. There is a difference between assembly for a finished product from components supplied by/imported from other countries, and a solely or mostly whole domestic production and assembly operation. If Canada were to do a domestic assembly for the future fighter jet, but mostly importing the parts from the supply chain for the existing fighter production, the cost to establish the assembly operation would be significantly less. It would still be at least dozens if not hundreds of millions of dollars. OTOH if Canada were also seeking to produce most of the actual parts for the future fighter, the setup costs could easily approach if not exceed USD$1 bil. Since suppliers for the components would need to be sourced and certified, as would the raw materials

    As for three of the five contenders suggesting domestic production for their entry, and the idea that it would be within a specific budget which cannot be exceeded... Hogwash.

    For starters, one of the contenders, Dassault, has already withdrawn and is no longer eligible to participate. For another, defence companies have indeed been known to submit bids on projects that the company knows will actually cost more than the submitted bid. The LockMart/AW submission of a Presidential variant of the EH101 for the new Marine One helicopter fleet comes to mind as an example. It is rather unfortunate, but cost overruns are a common feature for many gov't programmes, and new defence acquisitions in particular, regardless of gov't or country.

    Without knowing more information on what the RFP or RFI covered, and without having read the actual submissions offering the Gripen or the Typhoon, we are extremely light on details. I could easily see the submissions for those two fighters offering a range of options, with the different options also having different price points. Amongst the options provided, I would expect the vendors to offer the Typhoon or Gripen fighters produced on the existing production lines, since the flyaway costs I have been able to come across should be low enough to fall within the proposed budget, assuming an order for 100 total aircraft were placed. By way of example, the flyaway cost for the EF2000 Typhoon appears to be around USD$112 mil. which would put an order for 100 at ~CAN$14.85 bil. and additional funding would be required to establish training programmes for pilots and ground crews, as well as making all needed changes to existing facilities and tooling to enable the RCAF to maintain and operate the new fighter fleet. As a matter of practicality and realistic thinking, I do not believe that Canada (or anyone else for that matter) would be able to setup a line to produce ~100 new Typhoon fighters for a lower per fighter cost than the already existing Typhoon production facilities are capable of.

    A similar sort of situation exists for the Gripen, although the reported flyaway price for the Gripen NG appears to be around USD$85 mil. this would mean pretty much any offer from Saab that falls within the budget parameters would not be for domestic production. Looking at the cost to assemble 36 Gripen NG's for Brazil, ~29 are to be manufactured in Brazil, with some of the aerostructures produced in a new Saab facility built in Brazil, it appears the average cost for the Gripen NG's for Brazil are to be USD$130 mil. each, and this does not include the costs for any weapons packages, which Sweden has extended a USD$245 mil. line of credit to acquire weapons for the new fighters.

    Also worth looking at and considering are some of the cost estimates if the US were to re-start the F-22 Raptor production line, especially if one is thinking that Canada could economically engage in domestic production of parts for their future fighter. The US retained 95% of the tooling for producing the F-22, yet it was still estimated that it would require (and cost) USD$228 mil. to refurbish the production tooling. A further USD$1.2 bil. would be required to re-qualify or re-certify component and raw materials sources, and of course a facility would need to be established to actually produce the F-22, with no estimated cost for this provided even though the old F-22 facility is now being used to support F-35 production so is no longer available. A further item which would be an issue for Canada but not the US is that Canada does not currently have a pool of production workers skilled in manufacturing fighter aircraft, which the US does.
     
  6. Calculus

    Calculus Active Member

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    All excellent points, and I don't disagree with any of them. However, defence projects are not constrained in the same way as commercial projects by the profit motive. In other words, it may not matter if this line produces enough aircraft to achieve profitability (or even break-even). The GoC might be quite happy to pay a premium for a "Made in Canada" solution (even if it is just assembly), especially if they can point to job creation (short lived as it may be). As you point out in your posts, there are several countries who have come to the same conclusion. Not saying this is the right decision, but it is certainly attractive to politicians. Having the ability to conduct heavy maintenance, repair, and overhaul in Canada is also attractive, both financially and strategically. The RCAF is not thrilled with the idea that F35 would need to have most of this done in the US. Experience with the C-17 has shown this concept does not work particularly well, as all heavy maintenance is scheduled according to pre-determined slots at Boeing, and if you miss your slot due to operational requirements, it can take years to get another, which could mean an asset is unavailable for that period of time. Also, the money for this all goes to another country (Canada signed an extension to this deal for $200 Mil: https://nationalpost.com/news/canad...pite-claims-its-cracking-down-on-the-u-s-firm).
     
    Last edited: Jan 20, 2019
  7. Black Jack Shellac

    Black Jack Shellac Member

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    Here's an interesting tidbit. Plan to buy more fighter jets puts Canada on hook for bigger share of F-35 costs.

    So the politically revamped jet requirement to get 88 instead of 65 jets means Canada has to give more money to Lockheed to stay in the program. So I am trying to figure out how not buying the F-35 is going to save us money over buying it, as we keep putting more cash in, that can never come out unless we pick the F-35.

    I think it is going to be very difficult to justify any other option on a cost basis.
     
  8. ngatimozart

    ngatimozart Super Moderator Staff Member Verified Defense Pro

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    There is a logic in there somewhere. Don't know where or what type it is but it's there. :D
     
  9. John Fedup

    John Fedup Well-Known Member

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    Junior’s priority won’t be logic so value for money and mission capability will take a back seat. Face saving and Quebec a$$ kissing to enhance his re-election are what matters.
     
  10. old faithful

    old faithful Defense Professional Verified Defense Pro

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    Just out of interest, does the average Canadian think that Trudeau is doing a good job?
    Is Canada as a whole happy with their PM and party?
     
  11. Black Jack Shellac

    Black Jack Shellac Member

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    Canadian Federal Poll Tracker.

    Generally speaking I would say no. But it is not that simple. As some of the people who don't like him, think he is too right wing (go figure). Overall, the election will likely go his way this fall, but lots can happen in 9 months.

    The main reason I don't like him is he took Canada's centrist party so far left, they can't even see the NDP in the rear view mirror. There is now no centrist party in Canada, which leaves only a polarized environment with little room for compromise. Canada is becoming a disaster just like the USA.
     
  12. John Fedup

    John Fedup Well-Known Member

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    @Black Jack Shellac...I would add there are a significant number who aren’t paying attention. The other factor is the Conservative Party’s ability to pick some real duds as leaders, federally and provincially.
     
  13. Novascotiaboy

    Novascotiaboy Active Member

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    From those I interact with in business and socially the Liberals in Atlantic Canada are toast come the fall election. Unfortunately the votes from Atlantic Canada dont mean a thing once the votes are counted because of our low population.

    Hopefully the masses see how corrupt this current Liberal government is and especially pay attention to the ongoing Admiral Norman pre trial events . Again I dont expect the electorate to give a S#&%.
     
  14. Black Jack Shellac

    Black Jack Shellac Member

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    I think all parties did a good job of picking duds!
     
  15. ASSAIL

    ASSAIL Defense Professional Verified Defense Pro

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    Alberta seems a nice place to live:)
     
  16. t68

    t68 Well-Known Member

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  17. John Fedup

    John Fedup Well-Known Member

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    Germany has at least the lame excuse of supporting its fast jet aerospace industry although how you can rule out the F-35 but not the F-18 SH is strange to say the least. As to junior’s plan, WTF knows. A split buy is possible I guess but ultimately it will be a pi$$ poor and expensive solution.
     
  18. Calculus

    Calculus Active Member

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  19. John Fedup

    John Fedup Well-Known Member

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  20. Black Jack Shellac

    Black Jack Shellac Member

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