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Joe Black

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Joint bid on submarines between Japan and Sweden

South Australian premier Jay Weatherill has welcomed private talks between Japanese and Swedish companies about building the next-generation of submarines in Adelaide.

The Australian this morning revealed a joint bid by Japanese and Swedish companies for Australia’s $20 billion-plus submarine contract was emerging as an unlikely solution to fears that sending shipbuilding jobs offshore could cost the Abbott government several seats.

The private talks could see a major part of the nation’s biggest defence project being carried out in South Australia, even if the contract is awarded to a foreign company.

Mr Weatherill, asked about The Australian’s report, said he welcomed any foreign player that was prepared to build the submarines in Australia.

“That’s the commitment the federal government gave (ahead of the 2013 election) and that’s the commitment that we want to see delivered on,” the premier told Sky News.

“It’s a question of sovereign capability, making sure that we have the skills and capability to defend our nation, but also it’s the incredible number of jobs. I mean, we’re talking about a 30-year program of high-technology jobs which answers a big question that people around the nation are asking themselves about where the future of our industry is actually going to come from, and it’s not just the jobs that are created it’s the spill-over effects in our economy.

“These high-end jobs (are) like the engine room and the education system within your economy to actually grow advanced manufacturing, so its absolutely essential not only for the defence of the nation but also for the creation of sustainable high-technology industries.”

South Australia’s coalition MPs fear being wiped out in a voter backlash if the Abbott government opts to have the navy’s new submarines built overseas.

Under one scenario the contract would be awarded to a Japanese company, with key parts of the work done by the Swedish firm SAAB. The Swedes already have about 350 engineers and other staff in Australia and a year ago it bought Kockums which built the Collins Class submarines.

That option would also deal with Japan’s lack of experience in selling major defence equipment to other nations and concerns that language and cultural issues might complicate the project.

There has so far been no serious hint made publicly by Japan that it would be willing to build all or any of the boats in Australia.

But The Australian has been told that the Japanese have indicated privately that they would be open to the possibility of building the submarines in Australia.

That would remove from the project the cost of constructing a new yard in Japan. While Sweden has been excluded from the three-way competitive evaluation process for the new sub*marines, this would bring the Swedes back into the contest.

The three contenders at this stage are Japan, France and *Germany.

Coalition MPs have told The Australian they fear that if a major part of the submarine construction work does not go to South Australia, the Coalition is likely to lose three or four members from the House of Representatives, including the high profile Christopher Pyne, and two senators.

While buying a Japanese submarine is an option favoured by Tony Abbott, there are concerns that because of its pacifist constitution, Japan has no experience selling major defence equipment to other nations and that language and cultural issues might complicate an already complex project.

If Japan wins the contract it will work with Australia on a new submarine which would be an evolution of its successful Soryu Class boat with much longer range and other substantial changes including greater space allocated to crew accommodation.

The Swedes already provide the air independent propulsion systems for Japan’s Soryu Class submarines and the two nations have a close working relationship.

Japan has already asked *Sweden if it would be willing to share that propulsion system with Australia if Australia does buy an updated version of the Soryu.

The Australian has been told that Japanese engineers and naval specialists who last year visited the ASC plant in South Australia, where the Collins Class submarine was built, considered the Adelaide facility was more advanced than the plants used in Japan by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Kawasaki Shipbuilding Corporation to build the Japanese submarines. The two companies alternate in each producing a submarine every two years in a “continuous build” process.

The Australian was told in Japan in June last year that Prime Minister Shinto Abe was keen for his country to provide Australia’s submarines as long as he could persuade his parliament to agree to the necessary changes to the *interpretation of its pacifist constitution.

That process was completed only recently, and after the Abbott government opened up the process to include the French and Germans.

Cookies must be enabled. | The Australian

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The highlight was mine. Interesting to see that ASC is actually considered more advance than the Japanese yards.
 

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
I knew our facilities were more advanced, the ASC yard is one of the newest in the work and has been continually updated and improved over the years. They have never been as bad as the political rhetoric would have you believe and the fact successive governments appear committed to increasing hull numbers appears to indicate that there is actually acceptance that the majority of availability issues were actually due to not having enough boats or crews to cover the maintenance and upgrade of an aging platform.

The bit that caught my eye was the the suggestion that a new facility would have to be built in Japan to build submarines for the RAN, WTF! I thought the whole idea was to take advantage of an existing design built in an existing facility as part of an existing production run, this sounds more like we are planning to fund the modernisation of Japans submarine building industry.

I would be interested in finding out more details of this as I find it particularly concerning as it appears to suggest that we are offering to transfer our knowledge and expertise to Japan so that they can then build and sell submarines to us. This may sound far fetched but that is effectively what we have been doing with our manufacturing industries for the last couple of decades. I've actually worked for companies that have done it, the powers that be determine they can either save or make more money in the short term by sending work offshore, even if it means there will be long term, perhaps irreparable damage to the local industry and economy. This is because the long term doesn't help the short term profits, share price, deficit or election prospects, i.e. those making the call will have reaped the short term benefits and be long gone before the long term consequences hit, when someone else will be holding the ball.
 

StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
I seriously doubt a third LHD will be procured in the foreseeable future, especially if one of the main reasons we are getting it is to make an F-35B purchase viable, it would actually be cheaper and better value for money (not necessarily the same thing) if fast jets were the objective, to acquire a light carrier. This is because if you strip all the amphibious / LHD specific overheads away, for a given aircraft capability and capacity the carrier will always be cheaper to acquire and own, as well as better at doing the job of a carrier.

The other advantage of a light carrier is once you have covered off all the overheads associated with getting your fast jets to sea it will be much cheaper and easier to certify the LHDs to operate the type as well, either as an alternate carrier, or even as a permanent addition to their air group. For example if we only have one light carrier it may make strategic sense to have one of the LHDs cover for it during refits etc. If we have more than one light carrier, i.e. my three to five DDH type light carriers, the LHDs could still, especially in a deteriorating strategic environment, justify having an organic group of four to six Lightenings, a couple of Romeos and an AEW helo, in addition to the army aviation detachments.
I don't see how a specialised carrier would be required or cheaper or better. The LHD can provide more than what we need out of any carrier. Spain and Turkey appear interested in operating F-35B's off their JC1 LHD. We couldn't escort 3-5 DDH's anyway and they would offer less capable aviation capability than the LHD in a pure carrier or part carrier role.

I don't support the idea of F-35B and the LHD as carriers immediately, but is could be latent capability (ie acquire if required in the future). The cost of this is extremely minimal, simply don't acquire or choose things that explicitly remove that as an option. Ie remove the ramp off the LHDs, choose deck surfacing that is compatible, remove Jp-5 capacity from the LHD, have sufficient Jp-5 in fleet aux units. Being short sighted with our LHD's in trying to get them to perform a mission bigger than they were designed we cut into the aviation capability. This added expense, risk etc. Money could have been put to better use to solve to problem and not band aid it.

The one time in recent memory we could have actually used a carrier in recent times is East Timor I. We had targets in Jakarta circled on maps and F-111 on tarmac with bombs loaded and engines running. Ships were harassed by Indonesian aircraft. We would have been able to bomb Jarkarta but only after we were hit. Any response back from Indonesia would be essentially uncontested as you have to be very careful when Mobile Bay joined officially to provide any air cover and only some ships out of Indonesian territory would have been covered.US was adamant about how we were going to get no tangible support.

Australia 'was set to bomb Jakarta in Timor conflict' - Telegraph

Good thing for us that nothing silly overtly happened. As we would have most likely have been on our own with no US support and any attack (even minor) would have wiped out much of the allied Navy and Army. Even just dropping inert test rounds would have wiped us out.

East Timor was a complete strategic failure.

The advantage of a 3rd LHD is that it doesn't take away from the amphibious focus (particularly for the Navy). Trying to make the two LHD's take on everything and F-35's was doomed to begin with. IMO it is unlikely they will be able to operate an ARG other than once (and I am sceptical of that). So in that respect we will be short on the amphibious capability too.
 

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
I don't see how a specialised carrier would be required or cheaper or better. The LHD can provide more than what we need out of any carrier. Spain and Turkey appear interested in operating F-35B's off their JC1 LHD. We couldn't escort 3-5 DDH's anyway and they would offer less capable aviation capability than the LHD in a pure carrier or part carrier role.

I don't support the idea of F-35B and the LHD as carriers immediately, but is could be latent capability (ie acquire if required in the future). The cost of this is extremely minimal, simply don't acquire or choose things that explicitly remove that as an option. Ie remove the ramp off the LHDs, choose deck surfacing that is compatible, remove Jp-5 capacity from the LHD, have sufficient Jp-5 in fleet aux units. Being short sighted with our LHD's in trying to get them to perform a mission bigger than they were designed we cut into the aviation capability. This added expense, risk etc. Money could have been put to better use to solve to problem and not band aid it.

The one time in recent memory we could have actually used a carrier in recent times is East Timor I. We had targets in Jakarta circled on maps and F-111 on tarmac with bombs loaded and engines running. Ships were harassed by Indonesian aircraft. We would have been able to bomb Jarkarta but only after we were hit. Any response back from Indonesia would be essentially uncontested as you have to be very careful when Mobile Bay joined officially to provide any air cover and only some ships out of Indonesian territory would have been covered.US was adamant about how we were going to get no tangible support.

Australia 'was set to bomb Jakarta in Timor conflict' - Telegraph

Good thing for us that nothing silly overtly happened. As we would have most likely have been on our own with no US support and any attack (even minor) would have wiped out much of the allied Navy and Army. Even just dropping inert test rounds would have wiped us out.

East Timor was a complete strategic failure.

The advantage of a 3rd LHD is that it doesn't take away from the amphibious focus (particularly for the Navy). Trying to make the two LHD's take on everything and F-35's was doomed to begin with. IMO it is unlikely they will be able to operate an ARG other than once (and I am sceptical of that). So in that respect we will be short on the amphibious capability too.
Of course a light carrier would be a better carrier and cheaper than an LHD. It would have all the carrier bits and none of the amphibious bits, plus in all probability larger magazines and JP5 tanks, its as simple as that. Also every HADR and political situation that required the evacuation of civilians, delivery of relief or security personnel, support of helicopters, etc. would have benefited from having a carrier, just look at what Japan, Thailand, Italy expect their flat decks to do.
 

t68

Well-Known Member
Of course a light carrier would be a better carrier and cheaper than an LHD. It would have all the carrier bits and none of the amphibious bits, plus in all probability larger magazines and JP5 tanks, its as simple as that. Also every HADR and political situation that required the evacuation of civilians, delivery of relief or security personnel, support of helicopters, etc. would have benefited from having a carrier, just look at what Japan, Thailand, Italy expect their flat decks to do.
Also your DDH plan is there to escort the LHD as it would have similar levels of self protection as a frigate but without the 5in and but will have on call fast jet operations without compromising the LHD primary functions
 
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alexsa

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
I am not having a go at anyone, I had to google some of the terms used earlier this day.

AKE= dry cargo ship
AFSB = afloat forward staging base
MLP= Mobile Landing platform

maybe 3/4 here knew what the terms meant, information is just for the remaining quarter of us that cant keep up with the acronyms

AKE, basically bulk carrier with some helicopter decks, no landing well
AFSB - I guess like a larger AKE, but the idea is that instead of carrying stores back and forth, it anchors close to the bridgehead and works as a floating supply base
MLP, something like the blue marlin, a ship that can raise and lower itself, you put the landing craft on deck, to launch the landing craft you submerge the ship and the landing craft float off.

Again, just for the ignorant minority among us that had no idea
Sorry your are saying an AKE is a "Bulk Carrier"! Suggest you review that by looking up what a bulk carrier is. It is a vessel fitted with upper wing tanks lower wings and double bottoms. It is designed to take dry bulk material (in other words a hold full of ore, grain or other dry materials. There is entire chapter of SOLAS associated with these ships due to some of the issues related to them. These are generally not designed for unitised cargo.

There has been a lot of suggestion going on with some posters trying to bring things back to an even keel. Some of the suggestions actually show a lack of due diligence in actually looking at the vessels being proposed and what they are for and the balance of the RAN as a whole.

Rant off
 

alexsa

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
You never know ..... if they continue with the F105 hull the work flow may be relatively uninterrupted. This is all subjective as the government is holding its cards very close to its chest. When the shipbuilding plan comes out we will finally know.
Those articles were an interesting read and bring me back to the opening of the ASC shipyard in 2010 when I was absolutely convinced Rudd was going to announce a fourth AWD. Ah what could have (well should have) been, how different things would be today if that one little thing had been done differently.
 

Samoa

Member
BAE today announced mothballing of the Williamstown shipyard. It is expected all production workforce would be redeployed or let go, at the conclusion of the LHD and AWD block build programs. That is basically by the end of the year. Production will continue at the Henderson shipyard. At this point in time it looks like Australia will lose it's first shipyard, which was established in 1858 and closed ......?
 

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
BAE today announced mothballing of the Williamstown shipyard. It is expected all production workforce would be redeployed or let go, at the conclusion of the LHD and AWD block build programs. That is basically by the end of the year. Production will continue at the Henderson shipyard. At this point in time it looks like Australia will lose it's first shipyard, which was established in 1858 and closed ......?
This is what started the problems with the AWD, once the contract had been awarded to ASC Tenix sold out to BAE, then when block subcontract work went to NQEA, BAE, with very little work anticipated, made a large section of their workforce redundant. When NQEA couldn't meet contractual requirements BAE was awarded the work instead but most of the people they needed to do it quickly and efficiently had already gone, meaning new workers had to be hired and trained. It was this new, inexperienced, workforce and their equally inexperienced management team, that stuffed up the early keel blocks and by the time they were up to speed the government had already taken most ship 2 work off them.
 
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hairyman

Active Member
I do not understand why our conservative government will not order another ship. Things are in a different situation than when the ALP were in power. Now it appears that the submarines are no longer going to be built in Adelaide, and there will be less of them.
 

rjtjrt

Member
I have been suspicious for some time that the 12 submarine figure was a Kevin Rudd thought bubble (of course he never had any of those did he?), and eventually 8 would be the final number.
I have no doubt RAN were aware of this, but who would look a gift horse in the mouth.
At the time it was announced, it seemed to come out of the blue, and no one seemed to expect it.
Typical Rudd stunt - announce a stunning unexpected thing and enjoy the accolades, but not work out how and where the implementation will come from.
 

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
A very interesting article on the origins of the Japanese option for the Collins replacement in APDR.

Asia Pacific Defence Reporter : APDR July-August 2015, Page 1

It may sound a little over the top but remember the DFAT types involved in this story are the same ones who have basically killed the automotive industry in Australia for similar reasons. In a nutshell there are senior public servants who behave disturbingly like the Sir Humphrys in "Yes Minister" and "Yes Prime Minister" or of more concern, like some of the government type characters in a Tom Clancy novel, who knowingly trade off national interests, strategic capability and even the well being of their own countrymen for agreements and alliances they perceive as important.

Of particular interest to me is the section where ASC has been deliberately smeared and criticised specifically to smooth the eventual selection of a Japanese built submarine for the RAN. Not because they are best, or what the RAN wants, or even what we need, but because the deal would underpin a deeper strategic relationship with Japan. According to the article this specific end has been in the sights of DFAT since the early 2000s and much of what has happened, or not happened with ASC has specifically been to this end.

The article reads true and if it is it is very disturbing as it indicates that Australian industry, strategic capability and even the needs of the RAN have been deliberately and systematically undermined to fit a particular vision of Australia's place in a trilateral alliance. They have even destroyed the cares and reputations of people to get their schemes across the line. Disgusting.

The only question I have is if this alliance is so ferking important why did it need to be submarines? Why not destroyers, helicopter carriers, or even tanks? We need those too and the Japanese options are as good or better than anyone else's. We could have bought 3 AEGIS DDGs from Japan and built the planned corvettes to replace the Fremantles in Williamstown instead of buying the ACPBs. We could have ordered three DDHs to beef up the RAN, how about Type 10 MBTs instead of M-1A1s, Manoeuvre Combat Vehicle for the Cavalry Vehicle part of LAND 400?

Maybe the issue is to secure the desired security arrangements we needed to make it worth Japans while, hence why a $30billion indigenous submarine project is now looking to be replaced by a $50billion imported Japanese alternative. Remember several years ago $30billion was said to be a ridiculously large about of money to spend on new submarines, the then opposition claimed that it was a waste of money and that it would likely blow out to $40billion! Now we are told that the best option is to pay Japan $50billion to build submarines for us, seems expensive but it will likely include us paying them to upgrade their facilities, or build new facilities to match the capability we have locally. What we appear to be accepting now is $20billion more that we were told an indigenous program would cost, but with none of the revenue, employment, skilling, growth, strategic and other benefits of a local build.

Sorry for the rant but this is getting dirtier and dirtier, I knew the attacks on ASC we out of line and untrue but this would explain why.
 

ASSAIL

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
I do not understand why our conservative government will not order another ship. Things are in a different situation than when the ALP were in power. Now it appears that the submarines are no longer going to be built in Adelaide, and there will be less of them.
Because its not like ordering 1kg of sausages at Woolworths.
Defence procurement planning and financing is not an instant process unless you're Stephen Smith. Another AWD requires specialist steel, weapons and systems, all with lengthy lead times. Further, if we change any aspect of the order (such as ditching Aegis) another redesign and delay gets introduced.
The decision on a 4th AWD should have been made at least 2 years ago.

Your supposition on submarines is supported where? AFAIK the answer on subs will be delivered later this year. Naturally there are rumours and second guessing but until I hear something from a source known to be accurate I'll keep my counsel.
 

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
I have been suspicious for some time that the 12 submarine figure was a Kevin Rudd thought bubble (of course he never had any of those did he?), and eventually 8 would be the final number.
I have no doubt RAN were aware of this, but who would look a gift horse in the mouth.
At the time it was announced, it seemed to come out of the blue, and no one seemed to expect it.
Typical Rudd stunt - announce a stunning unexpected thing and enjoy the accolades, but not work out how and where the implementation will come from.
Actually there was an article in a couple of defence publications that even made it to the mainstream media in the early or mid 2000s, before Rudd was even mentioned as ALP leader, suggesting that we should begin building additional batches of submarines to eventually double the number of hulls.

The thinking was the RANs submarines were much busier than they had been when only six of the planned eight Oberons were bought and to make the capability sustainable significantly more boats were needed.

It was about this time that the need for an extra infantry battalion or two (over the army's then six), an earlier replacement of the F-111, and the formation of a Coast Guard were all raised, all things that have actually since occurred in one form or another and all I believe from Kim Beazley based on the extensive work and evaluations of Australia's strategic requirements post cold war, reviewed through the light of the War on Terror.

IMO Beazley definitely had a far superior strategic insight than any political leader we have had in the last fifty years and it is our loss that he was never able to form government. Imagine Beazley as PM in 2004 or 7, no Rudd, Gillard or Abbott, likely a fourth AWD instead of the pink batts as part of a better controlled stimulus and no talk, what so ever of Australia paying Japan to upgrade their submarine building capability so they could build boats for the RAN.
 

rjtjrt

Member
................
IMO Beazley definitely had a far superior strategic insight than any political leader we have had in the last fifty years and it is our loss that he was never able to form government. Imagine Beazley as PM in 2004 or 7, no Rudd, Gillard or Abbott, likely a fourth AWD instead of the pink batts as part of a better controlled stimulus and no talk, what so ever of Australia paying Japan to upgrade their submarine building capability so they could build boats for the RAN.
Beasley was too decent to become PM.
It appears you have to be a bastard to become PM.
 

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Because its not like ordering 1kg of sausages at Woolworths.
Defence procurement planning and financing is not an instant process unless you're Stephen Smith. Another AWD requires specialist steel, weapons and systems, all with lengthy lead times. Further, if we change any aspect of the order (such as ditching Aegis) another redesign and delay gets introduced.
The decision on a 4th AWD should have been made at least 2 years ago.

Your supposition on submarines is supported where? AFAIK the answer on subs will be delivered later this year. Naturally there are rumours and second guessing but until I hear something from a source known to be accurate I'll keep my counsel.
Yes agreed 2010 would have been the ideal time but it didn't happen. A fourth AWD with AEGIS would still be quicker and easier (not to mention more capable) than the modified F-100 Johnson proposed to distract us from the slight of hand ref the submarine replacement.

That said a repeat or slightly updated F-100 would pretty much have to use AEGIS but we already have significant components of a fourth system that we ordered several years ago, while I do not believe that AUSPAR is anywhere near ready. It wouldn't be as easy as it would have been if done five years ago but it would still take far less time than a modified F-100 and would keep things ticking over while the OPV and new frigates were sorted.

More holistically my preferred option would be a batch II AEGIS AF-100 of three hulls followed by a new AUSPAR DDG class of six ships. At a 24 month build takt and a ship life of twenty four years we would have our continual build on destroyers alone.
 

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Beasley was too decent to become PM.
It appears you have to be a bastard to become PM.
I may be deluded but I sincerely hope that is not the case, I think there is a definite need for some decency in parliament. I for one an sick of the nastiness and bad behaviour we have seen in parliament for far to long now, the leaders of old could be brutal with their parliamentary performances but I do not recall the sort of vicious deceitful, backstabbing behaviour we see so often now, just look what Rudd and Gillard did to their own party and what happens to anyone who is seen as a threat to Abbott.
 

vonnoobie

Well-Known Member
I may be deluded but I sincerely hope that is not the case, I think there is a definite need for some decency in parliament. I for one an sick of the nastiness and bad behaviour we have seen in parliament for far to long now, the leaders of old could be brutal with their parliamentary performances but I do not recall the sort of vicious deceitful, backstabbing behaviour we see so often now, just look what Rudd and Gillard did to their own party and what happens to anyone who is seen as a threat to Abbott.
Fear not, More and more often we seem to be having the average joe stepping up once again, Hell Ricky Muir is a good example. Bloke that every one though of as a joke yet he is one of the best of the lot, Shut's up when he need's to and when he does speak it's no BS. In my experience most people have had enough of the childish antics of the last few years and are just looking to vote some in not from any of the major parties.
 
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