Royal Australian Navy Discussions and Updates

Bob53

Active Member
Well it seems a lot of people here who have commented it won’t happen, can’t happen for various reasons might have missed the govs growing concerns with China. Not sure what the cost to build the infrastructure etc will be but the on the lot price in the US for a Virginia is around $3.5 billion $US.

The greens are going to go ballistic. Expect Marches.
 

spoz

The Bunker Group
Seeing what the timeline will be is going to be interesting; I would think it’s unlikely to be any quicker unless they build in the US or UK.

There’s a lot of construction going on at Osborne North creating a yard to build conventional boats. If the build is here it will need some significant change I imagine

it’s going to be an interesting few months.
 

Morgo

Member
Call me cynical but I am struggling to see how an additional 8-12 nuclear submarines is "China's worst nightmare" or "tips the military balance in Asia", can anyone enlighten me?

Edit: I feel like this is something I would read on April 1st
Certainly some hyperbole there but this is definitely not good news for China - if we can pull it off in a timely fashion.
 

StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
It does sounds like this is going to be a new design and built in Adelaide - which is concerning.

Perhaps both of these are being overplayed for SA political consumption, but if this is anything other than a carbon copy of Astute or Virginia this would presumably result in a delay in hulls in the water vs the previous plans for Attack.
Undoubtedly this is an off the peg build the only question is, will it be Astutes or Virginia's. The decision might be something like 8 x Astutes or 6 x Virginias. Some sort of ratio like that, and a decision will need to be made.

Reactors will be shipped over complete. Never need to be refuelled, and will be shipped back for decommissioning.
 

Morgo

Member
Well it seems a lot of people here who have commented it won’t happen, can’t happen for various reasons might have missed the govs growing concerns with China. Not sure what the cost to build the infrastructure etc will be but the on the lot price in the US for a Virginia is around $3.5 billion $US.

The greens are going to go ballistic. Expect Marches.
AUD90 billion / 12 = AUD7.5bn = USD5.5bn. So if we bought one straight off the HI / EB lines

But the fixed cost of the infrastructure and the inefficiency of an Australian build (rather than rolling off an existing line) will push the unit cost well north of that.

The best outcome is that Osborne becomes partly integrated into the US build / support infrastructure and so we can defray some of those costs across greater volumes.
 

Morgo

Member
Undoubtedly this is an off the peg build the only question is, will it be Astutes or Virginia's. The decision might be something like 8 x Astutes or 6 x Virginias. Some sort of ratio like that, and a decision will need to be made.

Reactors will be shipped over complete. Never need to be refuelled, and will be shipped back for decommissioning.
That would be a very very sensible approach.
 

John Newman

The Bunker Group
The greens are going to go ballistic. Expect Marches.
I must say I don’t give a flying f**k what the Greens think, they can go to their local park and hug a tree for all I care.

The one political party (other than the current LNP Government) that needs to be on board with this decision is the ALP.

One would have to reasonably assume in the lead up to today’s announcement that the Government has kept the ALP informed and briefed during this process, and also received bipartisan support for the switch from conventional powered to nuclear powered submarines.

I await with interest what Albo and the ALP have to say on this mornings announcement.

Cheers,
 

spoz

The Bunker Group
They’re saying that want the capability in service at the earliest achievable time; that probably implies at least one boat off a hot (overseas) production line. There have been indications for some time that the US would like to go back to two yards building Virginia’s, so that might be a possibility. Given the slow start to the successor SSBN in the UK, and the nearing end of Astute production that’s obviously another although a Brit design would potentially introduce a new combat system philosophy which might not be desirable.

This announcement is so paradigm changing that I wonder if a CV is next….(hat, coat,,,,)
 

StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
Its not just purchase cost. Its also crewing. Not actual number of submariners, but as a comparative ratio..

6 astute = 600+ crew
8 astute = 800+
6 Virginias = 800+ crew
6 collins = 360+ crew
12 barracuda = 720+ crew.

We will definitely be building them here. Neither the UK no the US has any spare submarine build capability. US wants more submarines as it is. UK is building its SSBNs.

Its entirely possible ASC might be purchased by a US/UK entity, or operated as the do for the hunters.
The best outcome is that Osborne becomes partly integrated into the US build / support infrastructure and so we can defray some of those costs across greater volumes.
Its not just osborne. Its the whole logistics tail. Every valve, every hatch, every part. Both the UK and US are essentially production limited, adding Australia to either program allows for spares and new parts possibly faster and more builds, cheaper.

its not just about subs either.
 

StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
They’re saying that want the capability in service at the earliest achievable time; that probably implies at least one boat off a hot (overseas) production line.
Perhaps, perhaps not. I would expect the first boat to perhaps be some local and overseas built segments. If the design is the same, then effectively we could start welding things up almost immediately. I would expect the whole reactor and compartment to come from overseas. It may actually be faster to do it this way.

although a Brit design would potentially introduce a new combat system philosophy which might not be desirable.
Integrating US combat system onto the Astute would not be an issue. I expect Lockmarts Australian integration program to continue. However, the US SSN program is huge. They also have new generation of subs coming down the pipe.
 

jack412

Member
From what has been said after the joint video release so far. They were saying they wouldn't discount the possibility of it being a UK sub. It is going to be an 18 month evaluation on the best way to proceed.

The media release. Including 'the Feller from down under'
 

Stampede

Well-Known Member
Perhaps, perhaps not. I would expect the first boat to perhaps be some local and overseas built segments. If the design is the same, then effectively we could start welding things up almost immediately. I would expect the whole reactor and compartment to come from overseas. It may actually be faster to do it this way.


Integrating US combat system onto the Astute would not be an issue. I expect Lockmarts Australian integration program to continue. However, the US SSN program is huge. They also have new generation of subs coming down the pipe.
SSN for RAN

Raises so many questions across a balanced defence force and the geo political region.
I would like to be happy with the decision but are still digesting the implications.

Not sure at this stage.


Regards S
 

Geddy

Member
I must say I don’t give a flying f**k what the Greens think, they can go to their local park and hug a tree for all I care.

The one political party (other than the current LNP Government) that needs to be on board with this decision is the ALP.

One would have to reasonably assume in the lead up to today’s announcement that the Government has kept the ALP informed and briefed during this process, and also received bipartisan support for the switch from conventional powered to nuclear powered submarines.

I await with interest what Albo and the ALP have to say on this mornings announcement.

Cheers,
I think we should “give a flying f___” what the greens think. They’re Australian’s with a point of view that is mainstream.
The political reality is that Labor will support this because of the strategic necessity and the Greens probably won’t. That’s fine, we are a democracy.

The more I think about this the more intriguing the choice between the Astute and the Virginia class is. I’d agree that 6-8 subs is most likely. I’ve seen nothing released about a selection timetable but it will have to happen fast. Osborne will be in chaos right now….
 

StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
Greens leader was on ABC TV this morning.. Rah rah floating Chernobyl's.. But was pleading to the labor party to oppose it. Which means they aren't, which means the greens are irrelevant.

While Australia might have fierce internal debate, our external relationships are very important. Annoying a US (democratic) administration and a UK administration, while throwing the subs under yet another bus is not going to be popular with anyone. I don't actually see this getting a whole lot of negative from the voters.

Its more than subs. Its a whole alliance thing.

Probably a bigger fall out outside of Australia...

What of ANZUS now?
Can Australian subs go to New Zealand?
Will NZ cease defence ties with Australia and its nuclear ways?
I imagine Canadians feel a bit left out as well.
The French are looking like right idiots.
 

oldsig127

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Can Australian subs go to New Zealand?
Will NZ cease defence ties with Australia and its nuclear ways?
I imagine Canadians feel a bit left out as well.
The French are looking like right idiots.
Do we really care any more? I'm not being entirely flippant. There comes a time when we need to pull on big boy's pants and do what we feel is right, without always feeling we need to pander to others whose actions look (at best) like opting out of reciprocal assistance in Defence, and at worst as freeloading.

The end of the cringe, so to speak.

oldsig
 

StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
Do we really care any more? I'm not being entirely flippant. There comes a time when we need to pull on big boy's pants and do what we feel is right, without always feeling we need to pander to others whose actions look (at best) like opting out of reciprocal assistance in Defence, and at worst as freeloading.
No. No we don't. Frankly you are either in the boat with us, or out of the boat.

As I watched the three leaders announce it, Australia really spent no time placating anyone specifically. Biden mentioned the French and all the other alliances.

Still interesting ramifications.
 

Redlands18

Well-Known Member
Greens leader was on ABC TV this morning.. Rah rah floating Chernobyl's.. But was pleading to the labor party to oppose it. Which means they aren't, which means the greens are irrelevant.

While Australia might have fierce internal debate, our external relationships are very important. Annoying a US (democratic) administration and a UK administration, while throwing the subs under yet another bus is not going to be popular with anyone. I don't actually see this getting a whole lot of negative from the voters.

Its more than subs. Its a whole alliance thing.

Probably a bigger fall out outside of Australia...

What of ANZUS now?
Can Australian subs go to New Zealand?
Will NZ cease defence ties with Australia and its nuclear ways?
I imagine Canadians feel a bit left out as well.
The French are looking like right idiots.
Actually the ADBR article today says that senior Opposition leaders were invited to last nights meeting.
 

Geddy

Member
Greens leader was on ABC TV this morning.. Rah rah floating Chernobyl's.. But was pleading to the labor party to oppose it. Which means they aren't, which means the greens are irrelevant.

While Australia might have fierce internal debate, our external relationships are very important. Annoying a US (democratic) administration and a UK administration, while throwing the subs under yet another bus is not going to be popular with anyone. I don't actually see this getting a whole lot of negative from the voters.

Its more than subs. Its a whole alliance thing.

Probably a bigger fall out outside of Australia...

What of ANZUS now?
Can Australian subs go to New Zealand?
Will NZ cease defence ties with Australia and its nuclear ways?
I imagine Canadians feel a bit left out as well.
The French are looking like right idiots.
Don’t know that I’d agree the Greens are irrelevant, they’re entitled to a voice given they have legitimate security and other concerns. I do think they are wrong on nuclear subs, but many of the public will listen to them.

ANZUS is still going to be relevant because we have to have NZ in the fold even if they won’t let our subs dock…. I bet they are secretly happy about the decision however.

As for the French, it’s worth $400m to get out of this, the only ones upset about it will be Adelaide pizza shop owners.
 
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