Royal Australian Navy Discussions and Updates 2.0

hauritz

Well-Known Member

I don't know if these things being armed with torpedoes and other weapons is pure speculation by the author. I am aware of plans by the USN to use the ORCA as a mine layer, and that may just a start. Many other nations are also developing XLUUVs so there is a certain inevitability that at least some will be armed.
 

FormerDirtDart

Well-Known Member

I don't know if these things being armed with torpedoes and other weapons is pure speculation by the author. I am aware of plans by the USN to use the ORCA as a mine layer, and that may just a start. Many other nations are also developing XLUUVs so there is a certain inevitability that at least some will be armed.
Biggest hurdle for weapons on unmanned vessels is fire control. Autonomously laying mines is relatively easy "go here, deposit package" Selecting a specific target and engaging is a whole other thing. Easier with unmanned surface vessels. Maintaining two-way seamless system communications with undersea vessels would tend to negate their inherent "stealth" advantage.
 

vonnoobie

Well-Known Member
Biggest hurdle for weapons on unmanned vessels is fire control. Autonomously laying mines is relatively easy "go here, deposit package" Selecting a specific target and engaging is a whole other thing. Easier with unmanned surface vessels. Maintaining two-way seamless system communications with undersea vessels would tend to negate their inherent "stealth" advantage.
That and no one has yet worked out how to maintain communication actively with these any decent range due to simple matter your sending it through solid matter (water) that is also constantly shifting so that signal is getting dragged off any which way ... Underwater drones will only come into their true capabilities when AI is perfected, Until them it will be basic pre programmed tasks.
 

cdxbow

Well-Known Member
That and no one has yet worked out how to maintain communication actively with these any decent range due to simple matter your sending it through solid matter (water) that is also constantly shifting so that signal is getting dragged off any which way ... Underwater drones will only come into their true capabilities when AI is perfected, Until them it will be basic pre programmed tasks.
Undersea environment is a pretty easy one to navigate. I don't see navigation as a stopper, collision avoidance is easy, way pointing, path finding, GPS etc all worked out. So there is enough for a platform to do ISR already with modest navigational autonomy. You need some autonomy to avoid needing constant communications. Report back with conventional coms at regular intervals or if it's smart enough when it detects something of interest. Good level to start at. No issues about killer-death-robots, gets the RAN in to the game to sort out the nitty gritty of dealing with a robot fleet. If you want to increase autonomy, you need to spend time training the thing to recognise objects with it's sensor suite, which is a good reason to start ASAP.
 

FormerDirtDart

Well-Known Member
Undersea environment is a pretty easy one to navigate. I don't see navigation as a stopper, collision avoidance is easy, way pointing, path finding, GPS etc all worked out. So there is enough for a platform to do ISR already with modest navigational autonomy. You need some autonomy to avoid needing constant communications. Report back with conventional coms at regular intervals or if it's smart enough when it detects something of interest. Good level to start at. No issues about killer-death-robots, gets the RAN in to the game to sort out the nitty gritty of dealing with a robot fleet. If you want to increase autonomy, you need to spend time training the thing to recognise objects with it's sensor suite, which is a good reason to start ASAP.
Undersea environment is pretty easy to navigate?
2001: USS Greeneville collide with and sank a fishing vessel
2002: USS Oklahoma City collides with a tanker ; HMS Trafalgar runs aground
2005: USS San Francisco collides with seamount ; AS-28 became entangled and require life-saving rescue to surface ; USS Philadelphia collides with merchant vessel
2006: USS Newport News collides with tanker
2008: HMS Superb hits undersea pinnacle
2009: HMS Vanguard and Le Triomphant collide ; USS Hartford and USS New Orleans (LPD) collide
2012 USS Montpelier and USS San Jacinto (CG) collide
2013: USS Jacksonville collides with trawler
2015: HMS Talent damaged by ice strike in arctic
2016: HMS Ambush collides with merchant vessel
2020: Unidentified Jang Bogo-class South Korean submarine collides with merchant vessel
2021: USS Connecticut collides with seamount

That's just reported incident since 2000
 

cdxbow

Well-Known Member
Undersea environment is pretty easy to navigate?
2001: USS Greeneville collide with and sank a fishing vessel
2002: USS Oklahoma City collides with a tanker ; HMS Trafalgar runs aground
2005: USS San Francisco collides with seamount ; AS-28 became entangled and require life-saving rescue to surface ; USS Philadelphia collides with merchant vessel
2006: USS Newport News collides with tanker
2008: HMS Superb hits undersea pinnacle
2009: HMS Vanguard and Le Triomphant collide ; USS Hartford and USS New Orleans (LPD) collide
2012 USS Montpelier and USS San Jacinto (CG) collide
2013: USS Jacksonville collides with trawler
2015: HMS Talent damaged by ice strike in arctic
2016: HMS Ambush collides with merchant vessel
2020: Unidentified Jang Bogo-class South Korean submarine collides with merchant vessel
2021: USS Connecticut collides with seamount

That's just reported incident since 2000
Yes it is, minimal obstacles compared to land, less traffic and it moves slowly. No cities, buildings, people, dogs, cyclists, cars, tractors etc. Many of these obstacles are moving, much quicker than things do under the sea. Undersea has a Z plane so you can avoid terrain completely. So yes, the undersea domain is a much easier one for machines to navigate than land.

WRT your analogy if you want to push it completeness, you'll need to list every vehicle accident that's happened on land. I suspect when you include every car, truck and bicycle accident you'll have a billions of entries. So navigating under the sea is relatively easy and much, much, much easier than land.
 

hauritz

Well-Known Member
Also UUV would spend the majority of their time deep underwater. Perhaps even deeper than most manned submarines would travel. They are also to some extent expendable.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Yes it is, minimal obstacles compared to land, less traffic and it moves slowly. No cities, buildings, people, dogs, cyclists, cars, tractors etc. Many of these obstacles are moving, much quicker than things do under the sea. Undersea has a Z plane so you can avoid terrain completely. So yes, the undersea domain is a much easier one for machines to navigate than land.

WRT your analogy if you want to push it completeness, you'll need to list every vehicle accident that's happened on land. I suspect when you include every car, truck and bicycle accident you'll have a billions of entries. So navigating under the sea is relatively easy and much, much, much easier than land.
Your analogy is a not very good and slightly facetious. You think subsurface navigation is really easy, a piece of piss even. Do you actually know anything about it at all? How it's done? How to ground truth you navigational fixes without giving yourself away to any potential enemy? What about water temperature, salinity etc? Then there are currents and all sorts of other things. How much do you know about sonar or ASW?
 

alexsa

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Yes it is, minimal obstacles compared to land, less traffic and it moves slowly. No cities, buildings, people, dogs, cyclists, cars, tractors etc. Many of these obstacles are moving, much quicker than things do under the sea. Undersea has a Z plane so you can avoid terrain completely. So yes, the undersea domain is a much easier one for machines to navigate than land.

WRT your analogy if you want to push it completeness, you'll need to list every vehicle accident that's happened on land. I suspect when you include every car, truck and bicycle accident you'll have a billions of entries. So navigating under the sea is relatively easy and much, much, much easier than land.
Have you ever navigated a submarine? For you to comment on how easy it is suggests some experience. From my experience (doing that job) it is not easy. We had transit sat at the time and certainly GPS helps ….. but ….. GPS only works with a mast up. When the mast is up the submarine increases the indiscretion ratio and may compromise its position.

When deep you have a number of options but a ‘pool’ of errors has to be calculated which takes into account ‘estimate’ set and drive and speed over the ground. When the pool approaches a risk then action is required to reduce the pool of errors or establish the vessels position. Bottom contour navigation can be used using an echo sounder….. which again may compromise your position.

Modern gyros mean that the error in course and distance can be calculated more accurately bit to suggest this is easy understates what is required. An Australia Oberon class boat tried to go to 400 ft in 300 ft of water due to an error in calculating the pool of errors. This was East Australian waters in NSW where the charting is pretty good. Other parts of the world have some nasty uncharted lumps of ocean floor to contend with.

Operating in traffic can be ‘really’ interesting noting all your target motion analysis is done of bearings only to estimate range. A tail helps but it takes time. You could ping ….. but that gives away your position.

The UUV will need to be able to establish its position from time to time but it cannot rely on GPS unless it wants to increase the risk of detection. This things travel very slowing so tidal streams and currents will be a serious issue. This will take some smarts.
 

alexsa

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Your analogy is a not very good and slightly facetious. You think subsurface navigation is really easy, a piece of piss even. Do you actually know anything about it at all? How it's done? How to ground truth you navigational fixes without giving yourself away to any potential enemy? What about water temperature, salinity etc? Then there are currents and all sorts of other things. How much do you know about sonar or ASW?
Sorry mate, I must have been typing when you posted this. Beat me to it.
 

vonnoobie

Well-Known Member
@ngatimozart @alexsa Thank you for both your very well worded posts much better then I could have done so. I didnt think submarine operations would be that simple and that is just to get the boat moving in the right direction then a matter of getting it to do the job against the right target in waters littered with civilian and military ships from nations all over the place all the while not actually communicating with it as that risks detection negating chance to do said job.

No doubt under water drones will have their day but the internet has been too quick to jump onto this mystery solution without factory the numerous problems to be solved for a craft operating in what one could safely argue to be the most challenging environments on earth.
 

Scott Elaurant

Well-Known Member
Noting that some here have actually been to sea on submarines, I was wondering if anyone had a view on the article below. It reports a 2021 flooding incident on HMAS Sheean which was saved by prompt crew action, but could have been serious.

From the discussion on this blog it seems to have been the third flooding incident on three separate Collins Clas subs. Each could have been catastrophic if not well managed by the crew.

My reason for raising this is not to criticise the Collins Class. I am one of those who subscribes to the view that Collins was an excellent class once teething issues were sorted out. My concern is with the age of Collins boats, the intention to run them to forty years old before replacement under AUKUS, and the increasing risk of incidents like this.

From an engineering viewpoint if something has a design life of thirty years and you run it for forty, there are many risks, some probably unknown. The LOTE upgrade can replace outdated systems, but not every worn component. The cost to do so would make it more efficient to buy a replacement sub. The RN and USN only run SSNs to 32 to 35 years old. Japan replaces SSKs after 20 years. We would be brave to assume we know more about safe sub operation than they do.

So I am concerned that we may be risking sailors lives sending them out in Collins boats when the are 35+ years old. What do others think? Is this a managable risk?
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Noting that some here have actually been to sea on submarines, I was wondering if anyone had a view on the article below. It reports a 2021 flooding incident on HMAS Sheean which was saved by prompt crew action, but could have been serious.

From the discussion on this blog it seems to have been the third flooding incident on three separate Collins Clas subs. Each could have been catastrophic if not well managed by the crew.

My reason for raising this is not to criticise the Collins Class. I am one of those who subscribes to the view that Collins was an excellent class once teething issues were sorted out. My concern is with the age of Collins boats, the intention to run them to forty years old before replacement under AUKUS, and the increasing risk of incidents like this.

From an engineering viewpoint if something has a design life of thirty years and you run it for forty, there are many risks, some probably unknown. The LOTE upgrade can replace outdated systems, but not every worn component. The cost to do so would make it more efficient to buy a replacement sub. The RN and USN only run SSNs to 32 to 35 years old. Japan replaces SSKs after 20 years. We would be brave to assume we know more about safe sub operation than they do.

So I am concerned that we may be risking sailors lives sending them out in Collins boats when the are 35+ years old. What do others think? Is this a managable risk?
An important consideration is how often the sub is on actual patrol. I assume Collins boats patrol much more often than RCN Victoria class boats which are the same age roughly but were in storage for several years. No doubt RAN officials are carefully evaluating risk and possibly there will be a reduced patrol frequency as the boats get older. Upgrading on board kit will be ongoing.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
... The RN and USN only run SSNs to 32 to 35 years old. Japan replaces SSKs after 20 years. We would be brave to assume we know more about safe sub operation than they do.

So I am concerned that we may be risking sailors lives sending them out in Collins boats when the are 35+ years old. What do others think? Is this a managable risk?
Japan replaces SSKs when they do for economic reasons. To maintain fleet numbers & keep a steady & efficient drumbeat, they scrap submarines at a fixed age, even though they could last longer. A few years ago they decided to increase submarine numbers from 20 to 22. No new orders were to be placed: each sub would stay in service two years longer. They are now retired at 22 years old. And that's still nothing to do with safety.
 

Redlands18

Well-Known Member
Japan replaces SSKs when they do for economic reasons. To maintain fleet numbers & keep a steady & efficient drumbeat, they scrap submarines at a fixed age, even though they could last longer. A few years ago they decided to increase submarine numbers from 20 to 22. No new orders were to be placed: each sub would stay in service two years longer. They are now retired at 22 years old. And that's still nothing to do with safety.
And that was the model Australia was looking at with the 12 Attack class Submarines, commission a new Sub every 2 years indefinitely but maintaining it at 12 Subs.
 

cdxbow

Well-Known Member
Inappropriate behaviour
Have you ever navigated a submarine? For you to comment on how easy it is suggests some experience. From my experience (doing that job) it is not easy. We had transit sat at the time and certainly GPS helps ….. but ….. GPS only works with a mast up. When the mast is up the submarine increases the indiscretion ratio and may compromise its position.

When deep you have a number of options but a ‘pool’ of errors has to be calculated which takes into account ‘estimate’ set and drive and speed over the ground. When the pool approaches a risk then action is required to reduce the pool of errors or establish the vessels position. Bottom contour navigation can be used using an echo sounder….. which again may compromise your position.

Modern gyros mean that the error in course and distance can be calculated more accurately bit to suggest this is easy understates what is required. An Australia Oberon class boat tried to go to 400 ft in 300 ft of water due to an error in calculating the pool of errors. This was East Australian waters in NSW where the charting is pretty good. Other parts of the world have some nasty uncharted lumps of ocean floor to contend with.

Operating in traffic can be ‘really’ interesting noting all your target motion analysis is done of bearings only to estimate range. A tail helps but it takes time. You could ping ….. but that gives away your position.

The UUV will need to be able to establish its position from time to time but it cannot rely on GPS unless it wants to increase the risk of detection. This things travel very slowing so tidal streams and currents will be a serious issue. This will take some smarts.
You guys need to step out of the 20th Century and get into the 21st. I think we are talking about slightly different things. There are really 2 parts to robot navigation, getting from A to B and avoiding obstacles en route.

Path finding
Under the sea, getting from A to B is easy. Most of the time it's a straight line or a couple connected lines. There is no great path finding requirement at all because you can be at a depth well beyond the 'terrain'. Based around an initial GPS reading, then INS and Doppler Velocity Logs, bearing and distance travelled can be worked out to give you a location. These technologies are not that expensive and in the larger drones can give very accurate travel up to 2 kms per thousand Km travelled. The larger drones can support more and better sensors, along with more smarts, which makes them more accurate. The process is well worked out. Take a GPS reading on the surface, dive, then track the motion using INS and Doppler Velocity Logs, then before you can say 'Kalman Filter', you have a distance and a bearing, repeat as needed

Collision avoidance.
Being able to select a depth to avoid the terrain of the sea floor makes path finding simple but also reduces your risk of collision. There is almost no traffic to contend with, so the the risk of collision is really low. In fact it is so low that many medium size drones that are ocean going seem to have no collision avoidance at at all. The large ones do, such as Boeings Echo Voyager, which uses sonar - see https://www.boeing.com/resources/bo...s/echo-voyager/echo_voyager_product_sheet.pdf Something as big as these could sink a ship, so they obviously need collision avoidance.

So, I believe my statement remains correct, the undersea environment is one of the easiest environments for robots to navigate. I'm only talking about open ocean, not the littorals, which are a much more challenging environment.

WRT the development of these XLUUVs navigation isn't going to be a big problem in the ocean, three much bigger problems are communications, the power/propulsion issues and 'support'. Boeing have been conservative with propulsion of the Echo and Orca, which are essentially a small diesel electric sub, which has to surface.

Developing the infrastructure to support them is another, but that's the sort of thing the RAN can use it's 3 prototypes for. Ships with cranes and deck space, or a well deck will be needed as these craft will likely need transport to roughly the area of interest. The 21C version of the Submarine Tender is needed. Added; a XLUUV that could be carried in an aircraft would add considerable speed and flexibility to their deployment.
 
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