Royal Australian Navy Discussions and Updates 2.0

[Bob53]

Like others I am delighted that a decision has been made, that it includes a long term plan, and that the capability gap has been addressed. 3 Virginias starting from 2033 eliminates the risk of a gap, and the option for 5 covers any risk of delay on SSNR (SSN AUKUS = SSNAUKUS class ).

Partnering with UK for SSNR is the right call for Adelaide construction. A lot of the firms are already here. In fact with the combined cash of RN plus RAN the SSNAUKUS design can be developed properly and this should reduce risk. I might have wished for a sooner start, but four years to upgrade ASC is probably realistic, as it should be brought up to a nuclear engineering standard including containment systems.

At first I was shocked by the cost but thinking further announcing the full cost of infrastructure, training and cost over 30 years is smart politically. Both major parties have now formally confirmed support which gives it political certainty. There may be debate over who pays for it but there is not debate that it is going ahead. Committing to a 30 year program with funding allows firms to invest with confidence in bringing resources to Adelaide and individuals to make career decisions with confidence.

I note the SA premier was already on the ABC this morning confirming he is going to Barrow to look at their training academy, with the intention to build a similar one here. Great. Prompt implementation on the human side is essential to delivery.

With the class now potentially being 20 or more boats( or less let’s see) you would hope there is an ability to keep costs down.

I envisage down track many questions when we get 2nd have Virginia ms with possibly 15 years of life in it at a low cost vs new build AUKUS that may run into $4-5billion per copy off the line plus sustainment.

The question would be why wouldn’t we just keep buying from the USN tail as they have new boats come on.
I’m glad the pathway is clear now for the next 10 years at least. I know I contributed articles but the chat about what when where and how much was getting pretty tiring

 

[Morgo]

The question would be why wouldn’t we just keep buying from the USN tail as they have new boats come on.

Because that wouldn't provide pork to South Australia

To be fair if we do it right in 25 years time Osborne, Barrow, Newport News and Groton should each be able to support production and maintenance of subs at the other sites. You're effectively doubling capacity for the yanks, and quadrupling it for AU and UK. A great outcome for everyone, including workers at all four sites.

Maintaining as much commonality with the future US SSN as possible while keeping the UK defence contractors happy is going to be the trick.

 

[Milne Bay]

For the Virginias they could stick with Attack Class (I dread to think of the other options). For SSNR reusing the O boat names would provide a lot of synergy given our history with UK submarines. The RAN had Oxley and Otway in the 20's (Odin class and only owned for a short time) and then the six Oberon's (again a UK submarine design). The Oberons did stirling service including intelligence gathering operations in support of allies (US included) during the cold war.

The link below alludes to this activity.

The O-Boat Mystery Boats – The Naval Officers Club of Australia

As an asside the officers and crew that participated in this work were awarded Australian Service Medals (special Ops clasps) long after the operations ceased.

Well, with a nod to the O-boats, and and in keeping with the organisation that spawned them - AUKUS - perhaps the Orca class would be appropriate
MB

 

[Bob53]

Quite a good write up, but naming the class after Kylie Minogue Maybe the Dame Edna Everidge Class

A combined US AU CMS will be a positive and if it migrates its way into the USN then all three navies will have a significant cross decking ability. Like POTUS said, having everyone singing from the same song sheet is the way forward. Common parts maintenance and weapons. The Navy Lookout article says that "... the RN boats could potentially be armed with a submarine-launched variant of the Future Cruise and Anti-Ship missile (FCASW) currently being jointly developed with the French." IMHO if they do that it will defeat the object of the commonality of the boats. I think that is one of the most important components and advantages of the SSN (AUKUS).


It is a great outcome and is a win win for all three nations.

These are Sub Briefs video on the announcement. The first one is the full live video he did on the announcement as it happened, and the second a summary that he posted later.

Sub Brief Live! AUKUS Partnership Update

US, UK and Australian reps make official statements regarding what submarine class(es) will be involved with the new Australian Submarine Program

www.youtube.com

May be Albo will call it ScoMo class but I doubt it…… Not sure why they are bothering with ice strengthening for the Con as I am led to believe there won’t be any ice on the caps in about 18 months time.

 

[Bob53]

Because that wouldn't provide pork to South Australia

To be fair if we do it right in 25 years time Osborne, Barrow, Newport News and Groton should each be able to support production and maintenance of subs at the other sites. You're effectively doubling capacity for the yanks, and quadrupling it for AU and UK. A great outcome for everyone, including workers at all four sites.

Maintaining as much commonality with the future US SSN as possible while keeping the UK defence contractors happy is going to be the trick.

Yeah I get that and agree with you 100%. I was just using my crystal balls (the ones about an inch in front of my opinion) to to predict what the Aussie journos will dredge up in 15 years time if we don’t keep a lid on cost s. They won’t know who to blame by then.

 

[Volkodav]

The reason why production is going to occur in Adelaide is capacity, there is so much work that needs to be done that two US and one UK yard will not be sufficient. The Wests submarine fleets have shrunk, we are not talking about one for one replacement, capacity needs to increase to maintain numbers, let alone grow them.

The reason we are going for the SSNR or AUKUS is because the Virginia's are due to wind up production in 2040 and be replaced by SSNX which is looking and sounding like an SSGN. It will be larger than either Virginia and Seawolf.

As for crewing, if current ratios remain, the up to five Virginia's will have similar total crew as the eight AUKUS boats.

 

[seaspear]

Is it known which of the Virginia classes the R.A.N may acquire 111 or iv or both, are they possibly to have" bells and whistles" the AUKUS submarine may not have and could this be an advantage to have different capabilities for the flotilla? yup more speculation sorry

 

[Going Boeing]

The question would be why wouldn’t we just keep buying from the USN tail as they have new boats come on. I’m glad the pathway is clear now for the next 10 years at least. I know I contributed articles but the chat about what when where and how much was getting pretty tiring

I believe that the RAN found the cost (money and difficulty sourcing parts) of maintaining the Oberons as they aged was very high as they had to get everything from the UK. That’s why they went through all the difficulties of setting up ASC for the Collins build - even with the ensuing teething problems of operating an orphan class. The belief is that the costs over the lifetime of the SSN’s will be lower by having the main supporting infrastructure locally.

 

[hauritz]

Is it known which of the Virginia classes the R.A.N may acquire 111 or iv or both, are they possibly to have" bells and whistles" the AUKUS submarine may not have and could this be an advantage to have different capabilities for the flotilla? yup more speculation sorry

Dont know for sure but if you crunch the numbers the RAN will need the Virginia submarines will to serve till 2042 through 2048 which means at least Block II or early Block III. If you actually want to grow the fleet as quickly as possible you might take up the option for two additional Virginias and would want them to stay in service until the third domestically built submarine is ready in 2048.

Of course these timelines are so long that it is almost impossible to believe that plans wont change. Its like planning for WWII at the beginning of WWI.

 

[seaspear]

A reason to not go beyond the initial Virginias is to keep a ongoing submarine industry for the follow on submarines after the AUKUS boats finish their construction cycle no" valley of death"

 

[ngatimozart]

Not sure why they are bothering with ice strengthening for the Con as I am led to believe there won’t be any ice on the caps in about 18 months time.

Ahem the science doesn't agree with you. The Artic polar ice will eventually completely disappear but that's decades away. You still have the ice shelves in Antarctica to deal with.

 

[Scott Elaurant]

On Arctic Ice, there will always be some there in the winter months. Even when climate change has ensured an ice free north-pole in summer months (not likely before 2040), the ice cap will keep reforming in winter months. It will be smaller than now, but still cover millions of square km. If I was in the British, Canadian, or Norwegian navies, I'd want an SSN sail strengthened for it.

On the good news side, I was really pleased to see this local SA story, which suggests rapid implementation of AUKUS, and a refreshing absence of bureaucracy. The SA and Federal governments are doing a land swap to ensure sufficient space to expand ASC to build SSNs, in return for defence land elsewhere. This is sensible and much faster and cheaper than haggling over the valuations of each title.

This is also great to see IMO: an immediate focus on worker training. Despite all the focus on sub choice, getting the skill base in place quickly is critical for AUKUS to work. We can build almost anything if we have the right people with the right skills.
"In a deal announced today, the federal government will also back an additional 800 university places in South Australia for engineers and scientists, with the first 200 places to commence in 2024."

Land swap and hundreds of uni places in submarine deal - InDaily

indaily.com.au

 

[seaspear]

Is a submarine dry dock to be considered in South Australia for the maintenance of the submarines ,I understand presently the U.S has issues with this and has plans to address it
Submarine maintenance backlogs and delays take toll on fleet’s development work at sea (defensenews.com)

 

[Volkodav]

Is a submarine dry dock to be considered in South Australia for the maintenance of the submarines ,I understand presently the U.S has issues with this and has plans to address it
Submarine maintenance backlogs and delays take toll on fleet’s development work at sea (defensenews.com)

I would be very surprised.

Think an expanded or additional ship lift and hard stand

 

[aussienscale]

Is a submarine dry dock to be considered in South Australia for the maintenance of the submarines ,I understand presently the U.S has issues with this and has plans to address it
Submarine maintenance backlogs and delays take toll on fleet’s development work at sea (defensenews.com)

Have not seen anything suggested, but from my current understanding, ASC will have a separate construction hall and the current shed for the Collins, not sure if this will be big enough to house Virginia's and furture SSN, would be easy enough to expand, a lot of plans from the Attack class are still in play, also there was intention to be doing regular maintenance at FBW lifting out of the water and onto hardstands.

There is still, hopefully, a dry dock planned for FBW.

Cheers

Edit: Volk beat me too it

 

[old faithful]

'Worst deal in all history': Former Labor PM Paul Keating savages AUKUS submarine deal

Former prime minister Paul Keating has taken aim at Australia's AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine deal with the United States and the United Kingdom, calling it the "worst international decision" by a Labor government since conscription in World War I.

www.abc.net.au

And so it starts.
An irrelevant ex PM criticising his own party, and suggesting Australia should have just snuggled up to China as a better deterrent.
I expect the media will milk as much as they can from AUKUS controversy, and we can expect an unstable government for years to come.

 

[Wombat000]

'Worst deal in all history': Former Labor PM Paul Keating savages AUKUS submarine deal

Former prime minister Paul Keating has taken aim at Australia's AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine deal with the United States and the United Kingdom, calling it the "worst international decision" by a Labor government since conscription in World War I.

www.abc.net.au

And so it starts.
An irrelevant ex PM criticising his own party, and suggesting Australia should have just snuggled up to China as a better deterrent.
I expect the media will milk as much as they can from AUKUS controversy, and we can expect an unstable government for years to come.

It’s easy to be skeptical, and jump immediately to ‘expected’ conclusions.
Im unconvinced Keatings geo-strategic views will hold much traction, simply because it’s fantasy v the bleeding obvious.
Also, politically it’s very much bipartisan.

There is also the identified benefits to the wider community thru underlying benefits to employment, and those jobs also will pay tax & contribute to the economy.

 

[Lolcake]

Seems absurd that we are not developing a parallel civil nuke industry. I suspect this will ultimately be initiated under a coalition government and Labor will not remove it should the wheels get moving.

 

[Wombat000]

Seems absurd that we are not developing a parallell civil nuke industry. I suspect this will ultimately initiated under a coalition government and Labor will not remove it should the wheels get moving.

considering the efforts required to power only a submarine, the cost, time and efforts multitudes-over to power a wider industry must be phenomenal.
by the time you’ve exhausted your treasury and wasted decades trying to make something practical, other cheaper technology solutions ‘industry-wise’ wouldve evolved to be cheaper and easier.

 

[buffy9]

It’s easy to be skeptical, and jump immediately to ‘expected’ conclusions.
Im unconvinced Keatings geo-strategic views will hold much traction, simply because it’s fantasy v the bleeding obvious.
Also, politically it’s very much bipartisan.

There is also the identified benefits to the wider community thru underlying benefits to employment, and those jobs also will pay tax & contribute to the economy.

Interesting comments for sure, but it wouldn't be the first time he has made unusual or controversial remarks. Hopefully people realise he is an outlier and as he criticises it, more are defending and promoting it (including current and former PMs of the ALP).

His comments about simply sinking an approaching armada with aircraft and missiles probably indicates the amount of SME he brings to the table.