Red Sea and the Houthis threat

STURM

Well-Known Member
Exactly -- Iran took a couple of missiles from Pakistan and deescalated. I think Iran would prefer to deescalate also the situation in the Red Sea, if appropriate pressure is being applied. I simply don't see Iran escalate into a full scale war at this point in time. Unless that's what they intend to do in any case.
Deescalating” in the Red Sea and not responding to direct strikes on Iran itself are two very profoundly different things. Also, the assumption that Iran totally controls the Houthis makes for a good narrative but is inaccurate and simplistic.

The Iranians have a lot of say but the Houthis don’t always listen; anymore that the Talibs danced to every Pakistani tune. Can’t remember where it is but there’s a good video out there. At one point the Iranians were agreeing to things with the Saudis. To show they were annoyed at not being consulted and to show their independence the Houthis lobbed a missile at Saudi. Needless to say the Iranians and Saudis weren’t pleased.

If I had to guess an actual hit on a U.S. warship by the Houthis might result in a strike on Iran. As such the Iranians would be telling the Houthis to be more selective at what they hit. Whether the Houthis listen is a different issue altogether.

As for alleged Iranian/Pakistani coordination of which I have zero idea; perhaps look the state of Iranian/Pakistani relations as they stand; issues they’ve had in the past and areas in which their interests are not aligned
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Deescalating” in the Red Sea and not responding to direct strikes on Iran itself are two very profoundly different things. Also, the assumption that Iran totally controls the Houthis makes for a good narrative but is inaccurate and simplistic.
I already pointed out: If Iran cannot control the Houthis then the US should not ask them to. In this scenario the US should instead tell Iran to stop shipment of missiles and drones to the Houthis. Clearly such a decision is fully in control of Iran. This will not immediately stop Houthi attacks but ultimately it will, when Houthis start to run low on missiles and drones.

As I also pointed out already, Iran would have a choice: either accept being bombed (and then retaliate) or, stop shipment to Houthis. In which case the US would not bomb, and Iran would not retaliate. They would do a cost/benefit analysis. I don't think the Houthis are so strategically important to Iran, especially after Iran becoming more friendly with Saudi Arabia. Why do you think Iran would risk a major war with US/Israel, just to ensure they could still smuggle a few more missiles to the Houthis? Iran has plenty of other proxies in the region. In addition, Iran would probably also conclude that they could always re-start shipment of missiles to the Houthis later of, if/when things change again. Iran is very opportunistic.
 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
Being able to shut down entire commerce routes and blackmail the losers is a very nice capability to have.
And with Israel's thorough dismantling of Hamas, they along with Hezbollah are the 2 remaining 'proxy'/allies of any relaibility right now. From going through Iraqu rumblings, Irans relationship with Iraqi SHia militias is a bit frosty right now.
 

koxinga

Well-Known Member
My question still tends. If military action fails then what? Simple question, no need for any obfuscation. Are we ready for yet another war and all it brings with it? You need a reminder as to the number of times countries have embarked on military action without a holistic assessment of what comes next and what happens if the plan doesn’t work as intended? Also, what is military action intended to achieve?To make the nefarious Iranians see the error in their ways abd back down?
The starting point is getting the Houthis to cease their actions, with the assumptions that Iran has a strong degree of influence (debatable) but at least practically (as a source of munitions).

BTW yes I’m convinced that a direct strike on Iran will see them retaliating and that would eventually lead to a war in the region. I just don’t see the Iranians lobbying a couple of missiles; engaging in rhetoric and then backing down.
Iran's own fear of a wider war is equally true and I always felt they were rational actors. As much as they want to convince or deter on the basis of "I will retailate if you dare hit me", other parties will need to manage that in equal measures to to convince Iran the same can happen to them.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Perhaps the US should also try to get more countries involved in surveillance and inspection of suspicious ships. Whereas you need a powerful AAW frigate or destroyer to protect civilian ships against ballistic missiles (Norway for instance have only ASW frigates with point defence only!) inspection of fishing ships off the cost of Yemen can be done even by coast guard ships. CENTCOM Intercepts Iranian Weapons Shipment Intended for Houthis > U.S. Central Command > Press Release View

Many European countries have significant surveillance capacities that should be well suited, e.g., P-3 or P-8s. Also many European countries can put together small teams of naval special forces that are experts in boarding ships. By having improved surveillance and more allied ships in the region ready to inspect, it should be possible to stop more weapons shipments before they reach Yemen.

One should also consider if it could be helpful to strengthen the UNVIM mission even further. U.N. quietly steps up inspection of aid ships to Yemen | Reuters
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
I already pointed out: If Iran cannot control the Houthis then the US should not ask them to.
'I have already pointed' out that supporting the Houthis are in line with Iran's core interests. Asking them to cease support for the Houthis is like asking the U.S. to cease support for certain countries.

As I also pointed out already, Iran would have a choice: either accept being bombed (and then retaliate) or, stop shipment to Houthis.
'As I also pointed out already 'it's not as simplistic as you'd like it to be. Like any country Iran takes certain risks; it would not liked to be hit but is willing to be hit if it's unavoidable. For Iran; whether it's support for Hezbollah or for Assad or the Houthis; it's well in line with national interests. From an Iranian perspective not supporting certain groups would be detrimental to its interests.

I don't think the Houthis are so strategically important to Iran, especially after Iran becoming more friendly with Saudi Arabia. Why do you think Iran would risk a major war with US/Israel, just to ensure they could still smuggle a few more missiles to the Houthis?
If you'd care to look at a map and take into account Iran's neighbourhood; as well as other factors you'd realise the Houthis are very important to Iran in the larger scheme of things. As far as Iran is concerned it's not risking a war with US/Israel because it's convinced that things will not reach that stage. Now it could be wrong but so far it hasn't.

This conversation has been focused on hitting the Houthis; why can't Iran stop supporting the Houthis; the damage a strike can do to Iran; etc, etc but the pertinent question I've asked has not been answered. Assuming the U.S. is willing to hit Iran; what happens if the strikes do not produce the intended political and military results? The West gets caught in yet another war in the region? Also, if a war breaks out who really benefits from it?

especially after Iran becoming more friendly with Saudi Arabia.
Thing's have not reached the extent where Iran is willing to ditch the Houthis. Relations with Saudi have not reached that level and maintaining ties with the Houthis gives Iran some leverage; just like Saudi ties with the U.S. gives it leverage against Iran.

The starting point is getting the Houthis to cease their actions, with the assumptions that Iran has a strong degree of influence (debatable) but at least practically (as a source of munitions).
First we have to ask why the Houthis are doing what they do. Granted the Houthis will have a few reasons; despite using Gaza as a pretext but the fact remains that the current situation in the Red Sea is linked to events taking place in a small strip of land where mass murder is occuring on a daily basis.



I always felt they were rational actors.
Their enemies would like to portray the image that Iran's rulers are driven solely or mainly by religion and are incapable of doing anything rationale.

If we take a non fevered and objective look however Iran has survived despite having very powerful enemies who've done all the can to isolate and weaken Iran. With justification we can also say they've also tried to destroy Iran. It survived the Iraqi invasion which was supported by the West and the Sunni Gulf states; regained it's influence in Iraq [courtesy of the U.S. invasion]; maintained its presence in Lebanon [despite facing great opposition from Israel and others]; kept Assad - the only Arab ally Iran had/has - in power [despite all the backing anti Assad groups received]; defeated efforts by the Saudi led coalition to gain victory in Yemen etc, etc. So yes they're very rational and calculating actors despite all the rhetoric they come up with.
 
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Vivendi

Well-Known Member
First we have to ask why the Houthis are doing what they do. Granted the Houthis will have a few reasons; despite using Gaza as a pretext but the fact remains that the current situation in the Red Sea is linked to events taking place in a small strip of land where mass murder is occuring on a daily basis.
First we have to ask why Israelis are doing what they do. As you know it's linked to Hamas being a terrorist organization that murdered 1,200 mainly civilians on October 7, took several hundred hostages, and is now responsible for mass murders in Gaza on a daily basis since they keep civilians as human shields.

The Houthis attacks on civilian ships are terrorist attacks. Independent of what rationale the Houthis are having for doing this, terrorist attacks are never acceptable, and necessary measures should be taken to stop this. This should always be the case for terrorist attacks, no matter who, how or why the terrorist attacks are being performed.

I agree that independent of this, if Israeli soldiers are committing e.g., war crimes, then this must be investigated and also be stopped. I have previously said that in my opinion all wars should always be investigated for war crimes, this should become internationally recognized norm, with no exceptions. In a way similar to plane crashes always being investigated.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
First we have to ask why Israelis are doing what they do. As you know it's linked to Hamas being a terrorist organization that murdered 1,200 mainly civilians on October 7, took several hundred hostages, and is now responsible for mass murders in Gaza on a daily basis since they keep civilians as human shields.
You sound like the IDF spokesman... Nobody is justifying mass murder and BTW Hamas isn't the only one partaking in murder. All I said was that in a certain way the situation in the Red Sea was linked to Gaza and you respond the way you did; like an IDF spokesman right on script.

Also, you're fond of asking for links are you not? Give me a link which shows that all or the bulk of civilian casualties were because they were used as human shields. I also BTW did not say that Israel does not have the right to defend itself so save the the sales pitch.


The Houthis attacks on civilian ships are terrorist attacks. Independent of what rationale the Houthis are having for doing this, terrorist attacks are never acceptable, and necessary measures should be taken to stop this. This should always be the case for terrorist attacks, no matter who, how or why the terrorist attacks are being performed.
You're obfuscating somewhat but I agree with your points. Yet the discussion - unless I'm mistaken - wasn't about whether the Houthis were nice chaps or whether what they were doing was acceptable .....
 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
Please.. I was merely using the same line of argument that you yourself was using, to make a point that I am sure you did not miss.
Major difference and you know it. So no it wasn't the ''same line of argument'' as you'd claim and in case you didn't notice I was stating a fact not justifying what anyone was doing. I stated that the Houthis claimed that what they're doing is related to Gaza. Yet you; seemingly the self appointed IDF spokesman here; saw fit to justify what Israel was doing, yet nobody said that Israel has no right to defend itself or that Hamas hands were clean.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Give me a link which shows that all or the bulk of civilian casualties were because they were used as human shields. I also BTW did not say that Israel does not have the right to defend itself so save the the sales pitch.
I did not say the bulk of civilian casualties were because they were used as human shields, only that it's happening. Both Israel and Hamas are responsible for their actions. Also I did not intend to justify anything, I was just pointing out some facts. As did you.

Anyway I will stop posting on this particular topic and I hope you will do the same, it's not adding value anymore.

Thanks!
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
I did not say the bulk of civilian casualties were because they were used as human shields,
Maybe not but your statement ''is now responsible for mass murders in Gaza on a daily basis since they keep civilians as human shields'' certainly implied you did.

I was just pointing out some facts. As did you.
I stated that the situation in the Red Sea is linked to Gaza. You in turn gave a monologue about what Israel was doing; how was it relevant given that the discussion was on the Red Sea and that mention of Gaza was in reference to the Red Sea?

Thank you.
 
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Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Maybe not but your statement ''is now responsible for mass murders in Gaza on a daily basis since they keep civilians as human shields'' certainly implied you did.
Yes that is understandable -- along the same lines, I am sure you also understand that what provoked me into writing such a statement was that you did not just mention the "situation in Gaza" but specifically referred to "daily mass murders" taking place in Gaza while we were talking about the Houthis attacks on civilian ships.

I stated that the situation in the Red Sea is linked to Gaza. You in turn gave a monologue about what Israel was doing; how was it relevant given that the discussion was on the Red Sea and that mention of Gaza was in reference to the Red Sea?
See above. You did not just state that the situation was linked, you referred specifically to "mass murders on a daily basis".

I will now stop. Really.
 
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Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
You sound like the IDF spokesman... Nobody is justifying mass murder and BTW Hamas isn't the only one partaking in murder. All I said was that in a certain way the situation in the Red Sea was linked to Gaza and you respond the way you did; like an IDF spokesman right on script.
To think Iran cares any bit about the wellbeing of Gazans and executes policy related to it - is an overly simplistic and flawed way to think about geopolitical events.

It would also be preferable if you tone it down and stop calling @Vivendi an IDF Spokesman. That's a very Hamas spokesman thing to say.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Yes that is understandable -- along the same lines, I am sure you also understand that what provoked me into writing such a statement was that you did not just mention the "situation in Gaza" but specifically referred to "daily mass murders" taking place in Gaza while we were talking about the Houthis attacks on civilian ships.
In simple English I merely said that events in the Red Sea were linked to Gaza. As for the ''mass murders'' I'm sorry but '''mass murder' is ocuring and I don't need or seek your approval to mention it.

I will now stop. Really.
Really?
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
To think Iran cares any bit about the wellbeing of Gazans and executes policy related to it - is an overly simplistic and flawed way to think about geopolitical events.
Did anyone say otherwise? Answer that before going into a monologue about how going into how ''overly simplistic and flawed way to think about geopolitical events'' ...

It would also be preferable if you tone it down and stop calling @Vivendi an IDF Spokesman. That's a very Hamas spokesman thing to say.
In my opinion what he said was something a IDF or Israeli government spokesman would say. Going on the defensive and mentioning Israeli deaths whenever mention is made of Palestinian deaths. And no that not's a ''very Hamas spokesman thing to say''.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Did anyone say otherwise? Answer that before going into a monologue about how going into how ''overly simplistic and flawed way to think about geopolitical events'' ...
Yes, here is the relevant quote:
You sound like the IDF spokesman... Nobody is justifying mass murder and BTW Hamas isn't the only one partaking in murder. All I said was that in a certain way the situation in the Red Sea was linked to Gaza and you respond the way you did; like an IDF spokesman right on script.
In my opinion what he said was something a IDF or Israeli government spokesman would say. Going on the defensive and mentioning Israeli deaths whenever mention is made of Palestinian deaths. And no that not's a ''very Hamas spokesman thing to say''.
Your opinion is very obviously wrong. Morally defending Hamas is a very Hamas spokesman thing to do.
What exactly do you get from defending Hamas?
 
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