Polish Land Forces Updates & Discussion

[SolarisKenzo]

Europeans have huge doubts that Poland will actually field or even buy what they say.
Actually, basically no one thinks they have the budget and/or the Manpower to do so.

 

[ngatimozart]

Europeans have huge doubts that Poland will actually field or even buy what they say.
Actually, basically no one thinks they have the budget and/or the Manpower to do so.

Do you have a sources for this claim? It appears to be somewhat disparaging of the Poles.

 

[SolarisKenzo]

Do you have a sources for this claim? It appears to be somewhat disparaging of the Poles.

You can find many articles on the internet, I had the opportunity to see some non-public analysis made by two EU-agencies, an italian defense magazine, a couple of german articles.
Participated in a couple of IAI meetings and had a long chat with a close friend just back from a 3 months deployment to Poland.

Poland Is buying ( but I have huge doubts they actually bought all those equipment... I'd like to see the contracts ) simply too much.
Just look at their GDP...and military spending before this year.

Of course, this Is my view.
You can agree or disagree, It's not math.
Simply, too many fingers are pointed at what seems, at least in part, a bluff.
I'm not saying they wont improve their Armed Forces, they surely will and massively.
But numbers are Just too big.

 

[OldTex]

You can find many articles on the internet, I had the opportunity to see some non-public analysis made by two EU-agencies, an italian defense magazine, a couple of german articles.

I believe what the moderator was seeking from you were links to the articles which you are referring to in your post. While the non-public analysis is likely covered by OPSEC, provide the links to the public domain articles so others can decide if they support your claim (or not).

 

[Big_Zucchini]

You can find many articles on the internet, I had the opportunity to see some non-public analysis made by two EU-agencies, an italian defense magazine, a couple of german articles.
Participated in a couple of IAI meetings and had a long chat with a close friend just back from a 3 months deployment to Poland.

Poland Is buying ( but I have huge doubts they actually bought all those equipment... I'd like to see the contracts ) simply too much.
Just look at their GDP...and military spending before this year.

Of course, this Is my view.
You can agree or disagree, It's not math.
Simply, too many fingers are pointed at what seems, at least in part, a bluff.
I'm not saying they wont improve their Armed Forces, they surely will and massively.
But numbers are Just too big.

Interesting. From what I gather, Poland has 2 main pillars of militarization - modernization, and bulking up in manpower.
Which one is under threat here? Or are they both?

Another thing I remember is that the spending spree brings them to about 5% of GDP. That much may seem disastrous for a European nation, but it is definitely doable, and certainly still very far from a war economy.
Poland's deficit is also very low from what I see, and its growth rate is high. So what am I missing? Why can't Poland cope with its planned budget but others can?

 

[SolarisKenzo]

I will be Happy to do a more detailed analysis to support my thesis.
Give me a day or two, I'll try to writer down some numbers in my free time.

 

[swerve]

Interesting. From what I gather, Poland has 2 main pillars of militarization - modernization, and bulking up in manpower.
Which one is under threat here? Or are they both?

Another thing I remember is that the spending spree brings them to about 5% of GDP. That much may seem disastrous for a European nation, but it is definitely doable, and certainly still very far from a war economy.
Poland's deficit is also very low from what I see, and its growth rate is high. So what am I missing? Why can't Poland cope with its planned budget but others can?

Official plans as of September 2022 put the increase as raising spending to slightly over 3% of GDP. A couple of years ago the plan was an increase to 2.5% by about 2030. The last I heard that had changed to 3% this year, then maintained indefinitely.

 

[ngatimozart]

You can find many articles on the internet, I had the opportunity to see some non-public analysis made by two EU-agencies, an italian defense magazine, a couple of german articles.
Participated in a couple of IAI meetings and had a long chat with a close friend just back from a 3 months deployment to Poland.

Poland Is buying ( but I have huge doubts they actually bought all those equipment... I'd like to see the contracts ) simply too much.
Just look at their GDP...and military spending before this year.

Of course, this Is my view.
You can agree or disagree, It's not math.
Simply, too many fingers are pointed at what seems, at least in part, a bluff.
I'm not saying they wont improve their Armed Forces, they surely will and massively.
But numbers are Just too big.

I asked for sources, not excuses. Read the rules WRT sources. Rule #14 applies in this case. to whit:

14. You must post source of your information/articles ( link, website, book, magazine, etc.).

Not all of us have the time to undertake searches for sources because someone has neglected to provide them.

 

[SolarisKenzo]

Polish armed forces:

In 2021, prior to the 2022-russian invasion of Ukraine, polish armed forces consisted of 114 050 active duty personnel.
As reported by IISS in his 2021 Military Balance, the personnel was divided as follows:
Polish Army: 61 200 troops, Polish Air Force: 16 500 troops, Polish Navy: 7 000 troops.
The remaining forces are composed by the territorial defense, the Military Gendarmerie and the Special Forces Command.

The military expenditure was, in the year 2021: 13 700 Billions USD, circa 2,2% of the GDP ( without taking into account early signs of inflation and energy prices at the end of 2021 ).
Poland is in fact roughly the 6° economy of the European Union, and the 8° in Europe, by GDP, that was 679 BILLIONS USD in 2021.

EU - European Union 2024

countryeconomy.com

After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, among the fear of russian threats and expansionism, Poland launched a huge rearmament program.
They announced a massive modernization and expansion of their armed forces, apparently signing contracts ( ? ) with several foreign countries and companies to buy:
- 1 000 K2 Black Panther MBTs ( link1 , link2 ) from South Korea, for 3,4 BILLIONS per 180 tanks
- 394 M1( A1/A2 spev2/v3) Abrams MBTs ( link1, link2 ) from USA, for 4 BILLIONS
- 48 Krab Howitzers ( link1 ), for 0,8 BILLIONS
- 672 K9 Thunder Howitzers ( link1 ) from South Korea, for 2,4 BILLIONS per 212 howitzers
- 288 K239 Chunmoo MLRSs ( link1 ) from South Korea, for 6 BILLIONS
- 220 M142 HIMARS MLRSs ( link1 ) from USA, for 0,65 BILLIONS
- 440 Cougar MRAPs ( link1 ) from USA, for basically free
- 23 Camm-ER batteries SHORAD ( link1 ), from UK, for 12 to 14 BILLIONS
- 26 M88 ARVs ( link1 ) from USA, for 0,2 BILLIONS
- 17 M1110 JABSs ( link1 ) from USA, for 0,1 BILLIONS
- 96 AH64E Apache helicopters ( link1, link2 ) from USA, for UNKNOWN
- 32 AW139 Helicopters ( link1 ) from Italy, for 1,9 BILLIONS
- 48 T50 light fighters ( link1, link2 ) from South Korea, for 3 BILLIONS
- 24 TB2 Bayraktar drones ( link1 ) from Turkey, for 0,1 BILLIONS

And other various equipment, for a total of about 37 BILLIONS USD.
If you add the 32 F35s that Poland bought in 2021 from USA for 4,6 BILLIONS, you will get a total expense of circa 41-42 BILLIONS USD. ( excluding unfuded programs ).
This is circa 6,2% of Poland's GDP.

Lets be clear, this DOES NOT INCLUDE PERSONNEL, TRAINING, INFRASTRUCTURE, and other expenses.

But how can Poland afford that? Or, to put the question another way, can they really afford all this?
Well, lets see.
If you look closer, actually, Poland DID NOT buy all this.
In fact:
- only 180 out of 1000 K2 MBTs were funded. link
- only 212 out of 672 K9 Howitzers were funded. link
- Its not clear how many K239 MLRSs have been funded. link
- the economical details of the APACHE deal are UNKNOWN. link
- the 14 BILLIONS USD shorad camm-er based Nawer batteries program is currently in doubt.
- the economical details of the T50 deal are UNDEFINED.

Poland is supposedly spending 42 BILLIONS USD, the vast majority of them within 2028, with 820 MBTs, 460 Howitzers, an unprecised number of MLRSs, 96 AH64Es, T50s and CAMM-ER currently without financial coverage.

But thats not all:
- Poland's inflation, at the end of 2022, was 16,6 percent. Way above EU's average.

Poland Inflation Rate - December 2022 Data - 1992-2021 Historical - January Forecast

Poland’s annual inflation rate was confirmed at 16.6 percent in December 2022, easing from 17.5 percent in the previous month but remaining well above the central bank’s mid-point target of 2.5 percent. Prices rose at a slower pace for food & non-alcoholic beverages (21.5 percent vs 22.3...

tradingeconomics.com

.
- Polish households energy prices increased by 180%

Polish Households Face 180% Power Price Hike, Watchdog Warns

Polish households are facing a 180% increase in electricity prices next year, the country’s energy regulator warned, calling for government action to both shield consumers and impose windfall taxes on utilities.

www.bloomberg.com

- Polish public debt, while still being relatively low, increased by 10% in 2022 only.

Poland Government Debt to GDP

Poland recorded a Government Debt to GDP of 49.30 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2022. This page provides - Poland Government Debt To GDP - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

- Poland asked Germany for WW2 war reparations, a clear sign of economical struggle, hoping to get some money.

Poland pressures Germany on war reparations – DW – 01/07/2023

Following Germany's latest refusal to pay war reparations to Poland, Polish officials are calling on the US and the UN for support. The government also aims to have its demands "clarified" to Germans.

www.dw.com

- Poland is asking EU for a refund for their equipment leased to Ukraine.

Poland will file for EU compensation for arms sent to Ukraine says PM

Poland will apply for compensation from the EU's European Peace Facility (EPF) for arms provided to Ukraine, the Polish prime minister said on Tuesday.

www.thefirstnews.com

This is clearly a sign of Polish overexpenditure, they are now facing the reality that they simply cant cover all the money they're saying they will spend.
They already said that, only to support part of their new military program, they will need to increase their military budget to 5%.

Poland to raise defence spending to 5% of GDP, highest level in NATO, says ruling party chief

"We must be a cohesive, armed and brave nation," said Kaczyński, as he pledged to increase Poland's defence spending to 5% of GDP.

notesfrompoland.com

As I said, many other factors, such as likely EU stagnancy in 2023 and energy prices, will go against Polish rearmament program.

Hope this can help you understand why i'm not " disparaging the poles " or " providing excuses instead of sources ".
Its so easy to say " WOW, Poland will be a huge military power!! ". Will they? Well, I cant say yes or no, but...

 

[swerve]

6.2% of Poland's GDP, but over how many years? Poland's forecast to be spending slightly over 3% of GDP this year, & GDP is growing. Over 10 years, that 6.2% would be no more than 20% of military spending, if spending remains stable. It's not 6.2% per year.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak has signed a deal with a consortium led by Huta Stalowa Wola, a subsidiary of Poland’s defense giant PGZ, to acquire some 1400 Borsuk (Badger) amphibious tracked infantry fighting vehicles.The Borsuk is fitted with a ZSSW-30 turret armed with a Mk44 Bushmaster II S 30 mm chain gun. The vehicle also carries a UKM-2000C 7,62 mm machine gun and it will be powered by a MTU 720hp turbo diesel.

The procurement will enable the country’s military to replace its fleet of outdated BWP-1 vehicles, a variant of the Soviet-designed BMP-1.

Poland eyes 1,400 new fighting vehicles to replace Soviet-era rides

The locally made vehicles for the Polish armed forces will join a plethora of new heavy weaponry from the United States and South Korea.

www.defensenews.com

 

[swerve]

Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak has signed a deal with a consortium led by Huta Stalowa Wola, a subsidiary of Poland’s defense giant PGZ, to acquire some 1400 Borsuk (Badger) amphibious tracked infantry fighting vehicles.The Borsuk is fitted with a ZSSW-30 turret armed with a Mk44 Bushmaster II S 30 mm chain gun. The vehicle also carries a UKM-2000C 7,62 mm machine gun and it will be powered by a MTU 720hp turbo diesel.

The procurement will enable the country’s military to replace its fleet of outdated BWP-1 vehicles, a variant of the Soviet-designed BMP-1.

Poland eyes 1,400 new fighting vehicles to replace Soviet-era rides

The locally made vehicles for the Polish armed forces will join a plethora of new heavy weaponry from the United States and South Korea.

www.defensenews.com

It's being reported that 1000 of that 1400 will be standard IFVs, & the other 400 will be various special purpose variants.

 

[SolarisKenzo]

I easily predicted that...

Poland’s Defence Spending Spree Raises Questions over Funding

LONDON --- Poland may struggle to fund its multibillion-dollar plan to buy a record number of weapons in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, experts...

www.defense-aerospace.com

 

[Redlands18]

Poland – AH-64E Apache Helicopters | Defense Security Cooperation Agency (dsca.mil)
Looks like the spending spree is not stopping anytime soon. Poland has been cleared for 96 AH-64E Apache helicopters valued at $12B.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Well gentlemen....looking to all those recent endless stream of acquisitions, it looks like Poland's defence budget is as large as whole Europe combined .

Poland plans to order 486 launcher-loader module kits for its M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, with deliveries expected to begin in 2025. This will be a part of a package of advanced rockets and rocket launchers worth about $10 billion. The approved sale also includes 45 M57 Army Tactical Missile Systems as well as hundreds of guided multiple launch rocket and warhead variants.

Poland will also acquire 22 Zenit-MP+ Automated Command Posts (ZSD) for the Pilica+ air-defence system, worth $151 million.

Poland to buy 486 HIMARS launchers from Lockheed Martin

The announcement indicates that, in the long term, Poland wants the state-run defense industry to locally produce HIMARS rockets.

www.defensenews.com

MSPO 2023: Poland to acquire new command posts for Pilica+ system

Poland will acquire 22 Zenit-MP+ Automated Command Posts (ZSD) for the Pilica+ air-defence system.

www.janes.com

 

[SolarisKenzo]

Well gentlemen....looking to all those recent endless stream of acquisitions, it looks like Poland's defence budget is as large as whole Europe combined .

Poland plans to order 486 launcher-loader module kits for its M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, with deliveries expected to begin in 2025. This will be a part of a package of advanced rockets and rocket launchers worth about $10 billion. The approved sale also includes 45 M57 Army Tactical Missile Systems as well as hundreds of guided multiple launch rocket and warhead variants.

Poland will also acquire 22 Zenit-MP+ Automated Command Posts (ZSD) for the Pilica+ air-defence system, worth $151 million.

Poland to buy 486 HIMARS launchers from Lockheed Martin

The announcement indicates that, in the long term, Poland wants the state-run defense industry to locally produce HIMARS rockets.

www.defensenews.com

MSPO 2023: Poland to acquire new command posts for Pilica+ system

Poland will acquire 22 Zenit-MP+ Automated Command Posts (ZSD) for the Pilica+ air-defence system.

www.janes.com

As I started saying last year, these are all "framework" agreements, not orders.
Poland DID NOT order 486 himars launchers.
They DID NOT order 1000 k2 tanks, 1400 IFVs, and all the rest.
They signed framework agreements.

Most of them aren't even binding agreements and don't have financial coverage.

‘Who will pay the bill?’: Poland’s defence spending spree raises questions over funding

Warsaw’s military expenditure set to reach 4% of GDP this year as autumn elections focus on resisting Russian aggression

www.ft.com

Polish rearmament has a lot to do with political propaganda and is very little about Russia.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Poland has a new government, so now they are looking to defence contracts from the former one. It is not clear yet if any contracts are to be revised or cancelled.

Polish PM flags wrinkle in multibillion-dollar arms buy from SKorea

The new government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk is scrutinizing the paperwork for weapons deals struck by the Law and Order government.

www.defensenews.com

 

[swerve]

Donald Tusk says Poland will complete weapons purchases initiated by the previous Cabinet, & will increase defence spending. He didn't say spending would be increased as much as the previous government planned, or that planned but not yet signed purchases would all go through, though, as far as I can find.

His defence minister says they want to increase the Polish-made share of purchases.

A member of the last government accused Tusk & his government of “preparing soldiers and the public opinion for withdrawals from weapon contracts”. That lot have a habit of making false claims about their opponents.